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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?

  • Yes - A fully independant Britain making its own way in the world (apart from scotland).

    Votes: 66 18.2%

  • A Semi-Detached Norway type deal

    Votes: 111 30.7%

  • No - 2nd referendum and/or face saving fudge to let us slink back in feeling a bit fucking stupid

    Votes: 185 51.1%
  • Total voters
    362
SpackleFrog said:
We might not get representation in the Parliament any more! #GiveUpControl

Flint offering May a Grand Coalition and basically coming out to support the deal:

"The most frequent comments from voters now are: “Caroline, why haven’t we left yet?” And “Can’t you work together to sort this out?” I have been honest with remain voters about honouring the 2016 result, and my general election pledges. Equally, I have insisted to leave voters that a deal is the best outcome for jobs. Jeremy Corbyn is right when he argues we must bring leave and remain voters together. That’s why I called on the government to adopt a cross-party approach and invite Labour into their negotiating team. The government can never please the Tory hardline European Research Group faction. It’s not too late for the government to reach out to Jeremy Corbyn on aspects of an agreement. I have no idea what is going to happen next. The Government is imploding. While chaos reigns, few are focusing on the details. MPs promote agendas that have little to do with the agreement. Debate remains polarised.

But if parliament rejects Theresa May’s deal, I want assurances from my frontbench that we won’t become the accomplices of the hard Brexiters, leaving the UK crashing out on 29 March. On this crucial question, I have a right to know how we guarantee toavoid the worst of all outcomes."

As a Labour MP, if it’s a deal or no-deal Brexit I know where my duty lies | Caroline Flint
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Fucking hell, where to start on that? Clever touch to use praising Corbyn's own words to stab him in the back. Use the scare threat of crashing out as the excuse to prop up the government and stop Corbyn from getting into power. And my pet hate from politicians, 'the public is saying to me x,y,z', shuffling responsibility for decisions and actions off her shoulders. She takes exactly the same line as Theresa May - 'it's my deal or no deal, you want to be responsible for no deal?' She is acting like the most obedient, loyal Tory mp. Extraordinary.
 
billy_bob said:
She's a self-serving ideology-free zone of very limited intelligence with the added downside of that worst of MP delusions, being 'one of the people'.
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Well the other way to see that is that she just really fucking hates Corbyn, so much so that she would prefer a tory government until such a time as the Blairites have recaptured the leadership of the labour party. So she'll vote for a shit brexit deal and enable a shit brexit to further that end. Long-term, that's her chance of getting another government job.

If that is her motivation, this is far from a stupid thing to do.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Well the other way to see that is that she just really fucking hates Corbyn, so much so that she would prefer a tory government until such a time as the Blairites have recaptured the leadership of the labour party. So she'll vote for a shit brexit deal and enable a shit brexit to further that end. Long-term, that's her chance of getting another government job.

If that is her motivation, this is far from a stupid thing to do.
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I'm sure she'll vote for whatever seems most likely to give her a govt job. I think, unlike some who really fucking hate him on a more fundamental level, she'd change her tune about Corbyn if that ever looked like the horse to back, though.
 
billy_bob said:
I'm sure she'll vote for whatever seems most likely to give her a govt job. I think, unlike some who really fucking hate him on a more fundamental level, she'd change her tune about Corbyn if that ever looked like the horse to back, though.
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With a majority of only just over 5000 I think her main concern is holding onto her seat at the next election, in a constituency which voted Leave
 
T & P said:
And if one worries about how much energy and attention Brexit has monopolised in places like here, think of the effect it will have had at a national/ government level. It has overwhelmingly dominated policy, public discussion, and parliamentary time including policy making for the last three fucking years.

Fuck education; fuck health; fuck welfare; fuck infrastructure: fuck housing; fuck everything. Just Brexit Brexit Brexit.

Considering how long it usually takes for a new law or bill to clear parliament in quieter times, how many will have been passed since this shambles started? How many vital issues affecting people’s everyday lives far more greatly than Britain’s EU membership status is e er likely to do have been neglected in the last three years? The damage from that alone might end up being very significant.

Not to mention society being at its most fractured and polarised it has been in living memory, or the contribution it has made towards the normalisation of deeply disturbing, sometimes openly prejudiced views into the mainstream media by individuals and public figures alike, something that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. No wonder the likes of Putin were so keen on a Leave result

Fuck the very day a referendum on the issue was ever proposed, and the cunt who made it happen to further improve his election prospects. This is the very worst and most fucking destructive peacetime event that has happened to this country in many decades, regardless of the eventual outcome.
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There it is. :thumbs:
 
Labour right, in the form of Flint, having their turn on stage.
I too want a Labour government and if Jeremy Corbyn tabled a no-confidence motion I’d back it. Since the Fixed-term Parliament Act, not one motion of no confidence has been tabled in six years. Some Labour MPs pretend that defeating May’s deal will lead to an election. It won’t. They don’t even believe it, yet raise false expectations among Labour supporters. This moment calls for honesty, not posturing. If after all the bluster, confusion, and parliamentary procedures, the Commons reaches a stage where MPs are left with no more options on the table – just one agreement or leaving with no deal – I know where my duty lies. Not to help May, not to help the government, but to do what I believe is in the best interests of my constituents and the country.
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T & P said:
And if one worries about how much energy and attention Brexit has monopolised in places like here, think of the effect it will have had at a national/ government level. It has overwhelmingly dominated policy, public discussion, and parliamentary time including policy making for the last three fucking years.

Fuck education; fuck health; fuck welfare; fuck infrastructure: fuck housing; fuck everything. Just Brexit Brexit Brexit.

Considering how long it usually takes for a new law or bill to clear parliament in quieter times, how many will have been passed since this shambles started? How many vital issues affecting people’s everyday lives far more greatly than Britain’s EU membership status is ever likely to have been neglected in the last three years? The damage from that alone might end up being very significant.

Not to mention society being at its most fractured and polarised it has been in living memory, or the contribution it has made towards the normalisation of deeply disturbing, sometimes openly prejudiced views into the mainstream media by individuals and public figures alike, something that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. No wonder the likes of Putin were so keen on a Leave result

Fuck the very day a referendum on the issue was ever proposed, and the cunt who made it happen to further improve his election prospects. This is the very worst and most fucking destructive peacetime event that has happened to this country in many decades, regardless of the eventual outcome.
Click to expand...
There's an unstated assumption here that all the parliamentary activity that hasn't happened would have been positive or at least neutral, which I and many others would dispute.

Even of the only consequence of my vote to leave is the amount of government time which has been taken up with this shit show (and it won't be just that), that would be a worthwhile result in my eyes.
 
T & P said:
And if one worries about how much energy and attention Brexit has monopolised in places like here, think of the effect it will have had at a national/ government level. It has overwhelmingly dominated policy, public discussion, and parliamentary time including policy making for the last three fucking years.

Fuck education; fuck health; fuck welfare; fuck infrastructure: fuck housing; fuck everything. Just Brexit Brexit Brexit.

Considering how long it usually takes for a new law or bill to clear parliament in quieter times, how many will have been passed since this shambles started? How many vital issues affecting people’s everyday lives far more greatly than Britain’s EU membership status is ever likely to have been neglected in the last three years? The damage from that alone might end up being very significant.

Not to mention society being at its most fractured and polarised it has been in living memory, or the contribution it has made towards the normalisation of deeply disturbing, sometimes openly prejudiced views into the mainstream media by individuals and public figures alike, something that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. No wonder the likes of Putin were so keen on a Leave result

Fuck the very day a referendum on the issue was ever proposed, and the cunt who made it happen to further improve his election prospects. This is the very worst and most fucking destructive peacetime event that has happened to this country in many decades, regardless of the eventual outcome.
Click to expand...
quite, think how many shitty laws we've swerved through the simple act of voting to leave the eu
 
redsquirrel said:
Labour right, in the form of Flint, having their turn on stage.
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she is right on a lot though: labour policy right now is
-vote down the deal
-call for an election (far from certain to happen, but its the motivating rally call)
- give false hope about a Labour renegotiation (which appears to be off the table in terms of time/A50/EU will, and even if it did happen would lead to an even softer brexit than the one on the table so far)

...Labours successful voting down the deal will more than likely NOT lead to a crash out Brexit, otherwise the Labour front bench wouldn't be pushing for it. Most likely it will lead to a second referendum and a stay in result. To my mind Labour policy right now, if they successfully vote down the deal, is leading to either No Brexit or a softer Brexit than currently on the table.

Very curious what conviction-Lexiters would rather at this stage:
1. that May's deal goes through, 2. a some-what mythical, softer, EU-tied Labour-negotiated Brexit, or 3. No Brexit at all. That would appear to be the options as it looks like the crash out Tories are a busted flush, and though crash out is still technically possible there would be too much cross-party agreement in the commons to stop it happening.
 
Last edited:
if the crash out option really has been politicked into against the national interest and therefor impossible I'd view whatever fudge comes as a stitch up. Because it will be. Wager I wouldn't be on my own there.
 
andysays said:
You've posted this without comment, so I'm not sure If you actually agree with it or if it's a kind of 'look what this idiot is saying. It neatly demonstrates everything wrong with the entitled political class which has led to this cluster fuck' post.

If it's the latter I agree 100%, but given your posting history I suspect it's the former...
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Not sure myself which is the bleakest prospect as between crashing out and the consequences of a second referendum being,as it inevitably would be,a Remain "win".
 
ska invita said:
she is right on a lot though: labour policy right now is
-vote down the deal
-call for an election (far from certain to happen, but its the motivating rally call)
- give false hope about a Labour renegotiation (which appears to be off the table in terms of time/A50/EU will, and even if it did happen would lead to an even softer brexit than the one on the table so far)

...Labours successful voting down the deal will more than likely NOT lead to a crash out Brexit, otherwise the Labour front bench wouldn't be pushing for it. Most likely it will lead to a second referendum and a stay in result. To my mind Labour policy right now, if they successfully vote down the deal, is leading to either No Brexit or a softer Brexit than currently on the table.

Very curious what conviction-Lexiters would rather at this stage:
1. that May's deal goes through, 2. a some-what mythical, softer, EU-tied Labour-negotiated Brexit, or 3. No Brexit at all. That would appear to be the options as it looks like the crash out Tories are a busted flush, and though crash out is still technically possible there would be too much cross-party agreement in the commons to stop it happening.
Click to expand...
I think she's wrong on pretty much every point, and disingenuously so. It is not the opposition's responsibility to ensure that key government business passes through the Commons. And she is translating 'we must honour the referendum result' into 'we must vote through whichever rubbish we are presented with'. That's bonkers. No, this is a tory brexit, engineered by the tories, and done by the tories (although labour must be regretting voting in favour of a referendum now - big mistake that). It's up to the tories to vote it through if that's what they want, and if the tories wish to present their deal as the only option, the opposition should call bullshit. Whatever your position, it is not 'honouring the referendum' to vote through this deal just because it's the only deal on offer. If you're playing the democracy card, that is anti-democratic and an abdication of the 'duty' of elected representatives to scrutinise legislation, because no deal of any kind was presented for consideration at the referendum - this has all been worked out since then.

If the deal is voted down, May will resign. I can't see how any new tory leader could not call an immediate general election in that circumstance. And in any case, labour mps should be happy that the government is in chaos, not bemoaning the fact. Good grief. You're there to oppose ffs. And again, if you want to play the democracy card, you were elected by your voters to oppose. If this deal gets through because of the support of labour mps, that will be a betrayal of democracy.
 
Duncan2 said:
Not sure myself which is the bleakest prospect as between crashing out and the consequences of a second referendum being,as it inevitably would be,a Remain "win".
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Well, it has always been my experience that maintenance of the status quo is easier than trying to reverse something.

A second referendum with a 'remain' outcome effectively means nothing changes. I dare say we would lose our current rebate as punishment for farting in church, but that would be about it. The EU hierarchy would be content that what is happening here would likely be an object lesson for any other country rocking the boat.

The 'leave' camp wouldn't be happy, but there is little that they could do. None of the major parties would endorse a third referendum, eventually the protest would die.
 
Sasaferrato said:
Well, it has always been my experience that maintenance of the status quo is easier than trying to reverse something.

A second referendum with a 'remain' outcome effectively means nothing changes. I dare say we would lose our current rebate as punishment for farting in church, but that would be about it. The EU hierarchy would be content that what is happening here would likely be an object lesson for any other country rocking the boat.

The 'leave' camp wouldn't be happy, but there is little that they could do. None of the major parties would endorse a third referendum, eventually the protest would die.
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yeh about 30 years down the line.
 
ska invita said:
Very curious what conviction-Lexiters would rather at this stage:
1. that May's deal goes through, 2. a some-what mythical, softer, EU-tied Labour-negotiated Brexit, or 3. No Brexit at all. That would appear to be the options as it looks like the crash out Tories are a busted flush, and though crash out is still technically possible there would be too much cross-party agreement in the commons to stop it happening.
Click to expand...
Tell me where do these "conviction-Lexiters" (sic) exist?
 
littlebabyjesus said:
I think she's wrong on pretty much every point, and disingenuously so. It is not the opposition's responsibility to ensure that key government business passes through the Commons. And she is translating 'we must honour the referendum result' into 'we must vote through whichever rubbish we are presented with'. That's bonkers. No, this is a tory brexit, engineered by the tories, and done by the tories (although labour must be regretting voting in favour of a referendum now - big mistake that). It's up to the tories to vote it through if that's what they want, and if the tories wish to present their deal as the only option, the opposition should call bullshit. Whatever your position, it is not 'honouring the referendum' to vote through this deal just because it's the only deal on offer. If you're playing the democracy card, that is anti-democratic and an abdication of the 'duty' of elected representatives to scrutinise legislation, because no deal of any kind was presented for consideration at the referendum - this has all been worked out since then.

If the deal is voted down, May will resign. I can't see how any new tory leader could not call an immediate general election in that circumstance. And in any case, labour mps should be happy that the government is in chaos, not bemoaning the fact. Good grief. You're there to oppose ffs. And again, if you want to play the democracy card, you were elected by your voters to oppose. If this deal gets through because of the support of labour mps, that will be a betrayal of democracy.
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I agree with you 100% that this shit is the fault of the Conservatives, specifically Cameron.

The trouble is though, the eventual outcome doesn't just affect the Conservatives, it affects everyone.

May's repeated mantra that there will not be a second referendum is not helpful. She's like a rabbit in the headlights, unable to function and have a look at this.

It must be argued that if the outcome of a vote begins to show that the consequences are not those initially envisaged, common sense decrees that a second vote may be mandated as a result of new information. We do this in everyday life, something doesn't turn out as we expect, so we change tack.
 
Sasaferrato said:
Well, it has always been my experience that maintenance of the status quo is easier than trying to reverse something.

A second referendum with a 'remain' outcome effectively means nothing changes. I dare say we would lose our current rebate as punishment for farting in church, but that would be about it. The EU hierarchy would be content that what is happening here would likely be an object lesson for any other country rocking the boat.

The 'leave' camp wouldn't be happy, but there is little that they could do. None of the major parties would endorse a third referendum, eventually the protest would die.
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Have to say I suspect that the word "eventually" is doing a lot of work in this sentence.In some quarters people already feel that they have waited patiently for something to follow from their 2016 leave vote.If they now find that they were in fact waiting for nothing to happen they will be incandescent with a possibility of violence.Or so I think.
 
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