Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[littlebabyjesus]

She thinks that as the deadline approaches many of the spineless pricks that inhabit the HoC will back this deal (or something very like) because the whips will twist arms, and a number of MPs will either don't want no deal or don't want a continuation of A50. As a tactic it's not unreasonable (from her perspective).

I agree that it's not a bad tactic from her. Only tactic available to her. But she has to get this through parliament. The day there is a vote against this deal (or as you say something very like) is the day May resigns. I think we can know that much. But no date has been set for that vote, and if there is a vonc in May and a leadership contest, would, could or should that delay the commons vote? I don't know - you could argue that such internal party affairs shouldn't affect important time-sensitive commons business, or you could argue that this commons business needs a pm who is not in the process of being dethroned.

There isn't actually a deadline for any commons vote, as I understand it, which is a bit odd. Delaying it as long as possible would seem May's best (only) strategy, and then as you say relying on spinelessness. Whatever happens, she'll need a fair few labour defectors, so she'll also need some discontent to be forming there. I'm not sure there has been much more to her strategy since the last election than 'just cling on'.

If this deal is voted down by the commons, I think a second referendum becomes a very likely thing. For all the posturing, nobody wants to be in charge on the date of a 'no deal' deadline.

 

[redsquirrel]

I agree that it's not a bad tactic from her. Only tactic available to her. But she has to get this through parliament. The day there is a vote against this deal (or as you say something very like) is the day May resigns.

I don't agree with that. So long as it's reasonably close the government, the HoC and the EU can maintain the pantomime make some last minute "changes" and try again. In fact I think there's a decent chance of something like that happening, and government (and EU) have probably factored it in. Allows some MP face-saving ("look what I got") bullshit before their about face.

IThere isn't actually a deadline for any commons vote, as I understand it, which is a bit odd. Delaying it as long as possible would seem May's best (only) strategy,

Again I think its in the interest of all the wankers involved in this to continue the fiction of a deadline, whether there "really" is one or not. I suspect a deadline before Xmas is pencilled in.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't agree with that. So long as it's reasonably close the government, the HoC and the EU can maintain the pantomime make some last minute "changes" and try again. In fact I think there's a decent chance of something like that happening

After what she said yesterday, I don't see how she could survive a vote against this deal. This is the best deal and the only deal and the only way to avoid catastrophe. That's her line. She's nailed herself to it, and she sinks with it.

We'll see, and clearly I may be proved wrong, but I think even a one-vote defeat of this deal in parliament could very well see the fall of this government. It's effectively a vonc in the government, like losing a vote on the budget. That's one reason why any labour mp voting with this deal can only be doing so to wreck Corbyn, because they hate Corbyn more than they hate the tories.

I'm rather expecting the DUP headbangers to change their minds on the deal, so that would help May. But there are at least 20 tory headbangers who will vote against the deal no matter what. Won't take many Labour defectors to swing it, but it will take some.

 

[The Fornicator]

Given Corbyn's record on ignoring the whip and with a referendum advisory behind it, he has next to no chance of this not being effectively a free vote when it gets to the HoC. The maj of the PLP has little or no regard for him as leader. Plus, Arlene Foster hasn't walked yet.

More than we have seen in history, next time around the voting public will scrutinise closely what the sitting MP did from now until the conclusion.

If this doesn't get through the HoC, I'm Oprah.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

More than we have seen in history, next time around the voting public will scrutinise closely what the sitting MP did from now until the conclusion..

You reckon? What percentage of 'the voting public' knows anything about their sitting MP beyond their party and perhaps also their name? Some do, sure, and the occasional MP builds up a personal base. But I think you overstate the interest people have in that.

Thing is, the above reasoning works both ways. Any Labour mp voting for this deal will have to take that to their constituency - it's a shit deal and we stood a chance of bringing down the govt, but I voted for the deal and kept the govt in power. And as I said above, there are tory headbangers who will vote against, and to hell with the consequences. They have in many cases decades of form - right back to Major's 'bastards'. So there will need to be some labour support for this to be voted through. And a labour mp voting for this is basically acting as a tory mp. That is what they take back to the voters who follow and care about such things. Maybe they're in safe labour seats so know they will get back in anyway. Chuka Umunna, for instance, falls into that category.

 

[TopCat]

I have never heard of this bloke but I know he is a cunt

Its a special gift I have

He is a close friend of Gavin Barwell.

 

[TopCat]

How much gold will the DUP want stuffed in their mouths?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

How much more gold, you mean. Dangerous game for a blackmailer to keep coming back demanding more.

They seem to be coming under pressure from their own supporters. I know it's difficult to predict with the DUP as they are genuine fundamentalists, but they'll cave.

 

[Kaka Tim]

you're oprah. there is nobody bar may loyalists supporting this deal. loads have publicly denounced it - they cant possibly vote for it. all the opposition parties are against it, the dup hate it, the tory brexiteer plus some of their remainers. Its a legal document thats been signed off by the EU commission - they are not going to change it and have said as much.

 

[Pickman's model]

How much gold will the DUP want stuffed in their mouths?

Three ounces molten per person should do the trick

It can be recovered after their death

 

[TopCat]

How much more gold, you mean. Dangerous game for a blackmailer to keep coming back demanding more.

They seem to be coming under pressure from their own supporters. I know it's difficult to predict with the DUP as they are genuine fundamentalists, but they'll cave.

Sell out maybe but won't cave.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

you're oprah. there is nobody bar may loyalists supporting this deal. loads have publicly denounced it - they cant possibly vote for it. all the opposition parties are against it, the dup hate it, the tory brexiteer plus some of their remainers. Its a legal document thats been signed off by the EU commission - they are not going to change it and have said as much.

They've said they're not going to change it. But rs is right that this is a big game of chicken. Nobody wants to be responsible for no deal chaos - an extension of A50 as a minimum could happen and we all get up and dance again.

DUP may hate it but it is their job to ratify it. They've already been paid for that, although they may demand more of course. The tories must know that defeat for this bill in the commons is effectively a vonc in the govt. I would expect a large majority of tories to vote with May, with only the hard core headbangers - the 20-odd who put in their letters today basically - voting against. Add in a few of the labour cunts, and I reckon it could be pretty close.

Labour sticks together, and this government falls within a couple of months tops, I reckon. Labour doesn't stick together, and maybe not.

 

[TopCat]

Im thinking May has confidence vote next week and wins. The vote will then be lost in Parliament. May resigns. New leader goes to the country and loses to Labour.The EU make a load of concessions including big cash for leave areas. We stay in.
I won't be happy!

 

[SpackleFrog]

We are running down the clock so there are three alternatives, efta, no deal, remain. There will be no no deal. There will be no Norway now Canada later. There will be no may deal so it is efta or as you were. My money on as you were.

I completely agree, one way or another that's where we're going - but what is May's plan or strategy? Or is that a redundant question at this point?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Im thinking May has confidence vote next week and wins. The vote will then be lost in Parliament. May resigns. New leader goes to the country and loses to Labour.The EU make a load of concessions including big cash for leave areas. We stay in.
I won't be happy!

I think each stage of that scenario is entirely plausible. We get rid of the Tories! Result.

I'm starting to doubt that there'll be a vonc May next week, though. 21 letters today is a pretty miserable return given that people were touting 60. Gove and Fox declaring loyalty. Boris Johnson and David Davis nowhere to be seen. It may have lost all momentum by Monday morning.

 

[TopCat]

Vonc had me confused!

 

[Gerry1time]

Im thinking May has confidence vote next week and wins. The vote will then be lost in Parliament. May resigns. New leader goes to the country and loses to Labour.The EU make a load of concessions including big cash for leave areas. We stay in.
I won't be happy!

Agree with the first two, but I'm not sure May would resign. She's very academically intelligent, but also quite stupid. Her sense of duty may well prevail over her common sense. Also doubt the EU will make concessions. They didn't for Greece despite huge human consequences. They don't care. They want us gone, and for our act of going to serve as a lesson to others.

 

[TopCat]

I think each stage of that scenario is entirely plausible. We get rid of the Tories! Result.

I'm starting to doubt that there'll be a vonc May next week, though. 21 letters today is a pretty miserable return given that people were touting 60. Gove and Fox declaring loyalty. Boris Johnson and David Davis nowhere to be seen. It may have lost all momentum by Monday morning.

It can't lose momentum though as there is no more road to kick the can down. They can't ignore it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

If this deal is rejected by parliament, May will resign that same day. I think there's tons of uncertainty about everything else, but not that.

 

[TopCat]

Agree with the first two, but I'm not sure May would resign. She's very academically intelligent, but also quite stupid. Her sense of duty may well prevail over her common sense. Also doubt the EU will make concessions. They didn't for Greece despite huge human consequences. They don't care. They want us gone, and for our act of going to serve as a lesson to others.

We mean more to Money and the EU than Greece. Us leaving could fuck the Euro. They will do anything to protect their project.

 

[Kaka Tim]

We mean more to Money and the EU than Greece. Us leaving could fuck the Euro. They will do anything to protect their project.

Yes - and in order to protect that project - they would rather the UK crash out then allow it a deal that leaves the UK better off than it was in the EU. They have conceded pretty much fuck all beyond small details - all the climbing down has been done by the uk.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes - and in order to protect that project - they would rather the UK crash out then allow it a deal that leaves the UK better off than it was in the EU. They have conceded pretty much fuck all beyond small details - all the climbing down has been done by the uk.

Allowing the UK to crash out and all the chaos that would ensue would place the whole of the EU at risk. There are already nascent anti-EU movements in various places around Europe. There may be bods in the EU bureaucracy who see things like that, but the national governments, who are still the ultimate decision-makers, will not. They will see their own governments to be at risk of falling.

I agree with TC. If this were a small, weak country like Greece, they'd probably say 'fuck em'. But it's not.

 

[Lord Camomile]

they would rather the UK crash out then allow it a deal that leaves the UK better off than it was in the EU. They have conceded pretty much fuck all beyond small details - all the climbing down has been done by the uk.

That's something else I've been wondering in my ignorance - even if it hadn't been such a clusterfuck on the home front, just how strong would the UK's negotiating position have been anyway?

The EU have no interest in making it easy or conceding anything, could anyone have got a deal that would leave the UK in a decent state?

 

[Kaka Tim]

WRT crashing out, the EU is banking - correctly IMO - that the UK will blink first and call a 2nd ref, general election or "unity Government" whilst asking for a suspension of A50.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Allowing the UK to crash out and all the chaos that would ensue would place the whole of the EU at risk. There are already nascent anti-EU movements in various places around Europe. There may be bods in the EU bureaucracy who see things like that, but the national governments, who are still the ultimate decision-makers, will not. They will see their own governments to be at risk of falling.

I agree with TC. If this were a small, weak country like Greece, they'd probably say 'fuck em'. But it's not.

Ffs, please stop being conned in to crash out, chaos, headbangers and so on. It makes you sound as divvy as the fucking Guardian columnists.

The UK is leaving a trading and political block. Both sides wish to keep the trading side alive, yet obviously something has to give.

End of times it is not.

Makes you sound right fucking stupid if you think it is.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Ffs, please stop being conned in to crash out, chaos, headbangers and so on. It makes you sound as divvy as the fucking Guardian columnists.

The UK is leaving a trading and political block. Both sides wish to keep the trading side alive, yet obviously something has to give.

End of times it is not.

Makes you sound right fucking stupid if you think it is.

A no deal exit from the EU, in the short-term, would cause chaos. I don't for one second think it will happen, for that reason, whatever happens to this current deal or indeed this current government. Those using it as a threat, like May and others, are being disingenuous, and that needs calling out.

As for calling the eurosceptic wing of the Tory party (specifically the ERG) and the DUP 'headbangers', what the fuck do you want me to call them? They're total cunts, every single one of them.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

A no deal exit from the EU, in the short-term, would cause chaos. I don't for one second think it will happen, for that reason, whatever happens to this current deal or indeed this current government. Those using it as a threat, like May and others, are being disingenuous, and that needs calling out.

As for calling the eurosceptic wing of the Tory party (specifically the ERG) and the DUP 'headbangers', what the fuck do you want me to call them? They're total cunts, every single one of them.

Why would leaving a political union cause chaos?

If managed reasonably it really is not an issue. Yet there are screamers all over and MayTwat is listening.

We keep being told by the EU that this is a divorce. If we are leaving then it should be a genuine split, like a divorce. Anything else is bound to cause more long term pain. The narrative seems to be liberal led, stay close for the kids.

Everyone loses.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Allowing the UK to crash out and all the chaos that would ensue would place the whole of the EU at risk. There are already nascent anti-EU movements in various places around Europe. There may be bods in the EU bureaucracy who see things like that, but the national governments, who are still the ultimate decision-makers, will not. They will see their own governments to be at risk of falling.

I agree with TC. If this were a small, weak country like Greece, they'd probably say 'fuck em'. But it's not.

That's something else I've been wondering in my ignorance - even if it hadn't been such a clusterfuck on the home front, just how strong would the UK's negotiating position have been anyway?

The EU have no interest in making it easy or conceding anything, could anyone have got a deal that would leave the UK in a decent state?

I think what Greece and Britain both demonstrate is that if you think you can have a vote and just leave, or even attempt to renegotiate things, you can get to fuck, there will be no compromises and if you think you can break away then you will be threatened with economic catastrophe as punishment.

There are deep crises in the EU. The concept of 'free movement', always somewhat euphemistic, is breaking down, the debt crisis is causing conflict with Italy (who've already had a govt *forced* on them lets not forget), and the whole bloc is totally exposed to any shockwaves in the Chinese economy. They're not letting anyone break rank, big or small. And the rest of the global capitalist class overwhelmingly don't want any disruption to trade with Europe. "The markets" will be used to punish any wayward state that relies on global markets. Actually leaving the EU and not being destroyed would require a pretty radical program for any govt.

Varoufakis always gives the quote from the German Finance Minister when he met with him - "Elections cannot be allowed to change economic policy." That pretty much sums it up.

 

[SpackleFrog]

You reckon? What percentage of 'the voting public' knows anything about their sitting MP beyond their party and perhaps also their name? Some do, sure, and the occasional MP builds up a personal base. But I think you overstate the interest people have in that.

Thing is, the above reasoning works both ways. Any Labour mp voting for this deal will have to take that to their constituency - it's a shit deal and we stood a chance of bringing down the govt, but I voted for the deal and kept the govt in power...there will need to be some labour support for this to be voted through. And a labour mp voting for this is basically acting as a tory mp. That is what they take back to the voters who follow and care about such things. Maybe they're in safe labour seats so know they will get back in anyway. Chuka Umunna, for instance, falls into that category.

This is what I'm wondering about - I can see a lot of grandstanding and 'in the national interest' and it will work with some people. "We pushed through May's not really Brexit deal that Rees-Mogg hated we basically stopped Brexit and a No Deal Brexit would have been just awful." On the other hand, perhaps if it deepened rifts between the likes of Chuka and the rest of the Party that could be positive.

 

[Wookey]

It may have lost all momentum by Monday morning.

I'm hoping it does, I've been sitting on a press release for work since yesterday, can't send it out to the papers while this fuckstorm is going on, it'll drown. Makes you wonder how much other news is being held onto or biffed because of the all-consuming attention-vortex that is Brexit. I hope it all goes a bit quiet and I can get my story out!

I must say it seems weird to me that something of this magnitude and complexity has a single, solitary thread on Urban, there are so many aspects I would love to read discussion on that we're not touching because (I feel) we're all in this crowded room, no conjunctive arguments or layered debate, I suggest the restricted medium stifles quality, much as I love you all. . I don't know if that was editor's decision or a community call, but thought I'd mention it.