Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Psst, interest you in a watch, mate?

Spoiler: Brexit watch

Spoiler: A deal, a steal, it's sale of the fucking century...

 

[Teaboy]

Some of the responses here are quite shocking in their willingness to overlook the reality of the unelected European Commission telling the recently elected government of Italy to revise its budget, including campaign promises guaranteeing a minimum income for the unemployed, and giving them a deadline of three weeks to submit a new, draft budget to Brussels, because they said the first draft represented a "particularly serious non-compliance" with its recommendations.

And its not really recommendations if they enforce non-compliance. That's instructions.

 

[andysays]

And its not really recommendations if they enforce non-compliance. That's instructions.

<insert meme of Hector Barbarossa from Pirates of the Caribbean saying "the EU budgetary rules are more what you'd call instructions than genuine recommendations" here>

 

[tommers]

Chronofighter.

 

[kebabking]

Some of the responses here are quite shocking in their willingness to overlook the reality of the unelected European Commission telling the recently elected government of Italy to revise its budget...

Conversely, the EU can only intervene with the Italian budget because Italy has given them permission to do so - by joining the Euro and signing up to its rules. If Italy feels that the rules of the club its democratically elected government chose to join are no longer appropriate, then it has the right to seek to change the rules of that club, and that doesn't produce the result it wants, it can decide to leave.

You are suggesting that Italy should have the right to ignore the rules it signed up to, and to remain a member of the club.

Would you take the same view about members of a trade union?

 

[redsquirrel]

Are you happy that the EU can and does enforce this? The EU is enforcing austerity. It's not technical question on whether they are living within their means, it's profoundly political.

If Westminster tried to pull that shit with Scotland I'd be 100 percent behind the Scottish people.

And it does still kind of look like you're saying that doesn't affect the UK so what's the problem?

Just wanted to say good to see you around here again SN
(and hope you and your partner are doing ok)

 

[andysays]

Conversely, the EU can only intervene with the Italian budget because Italy has given them permission to do so - by joining the Euro and signing up to its rules. If Italy feels that the rules of the club its democratically elected government chose to join are no longer appropriate, then it has the right to seek to change the rules of that club, and that doesn't produce the result it wants, it can decide to leave.

You are suggesting that Italy should have the right to ignore the rules it signed up to, and to remain a member of the club.

Would you take the same view about members of a trade union?

Did the Italian people give their explicit consent to joining the Euro?

And even if they did, should that decision made some years ago bind them in perpetuity to a system of rules the full implications of which are only becoming clear now?

It seems to me to be a fundamental principle of democracy that electorates are able to change their minds if they want to, so if the Italian electorate have voted to guarantee a minimum income for the unemployed, it's not right for the EU to deny them that choice.

I said in an earlier post that the tensions within the EU which have brought us to Brexit are not confined to the UK, and this latest development in Italy is an example of that. It's likely that we'll see further examples of national electorates voting for policies the EU wishes to deny them, which may lead to more countries than Britain leaving in future.

 

[kebabking]

Did the Italian people give their explicit consent to joining the Euro?

And even if they did, should that decision made some years ago bind them in perpetuity to a system of rules the full implications of which are only becoming clear now?

It seems to me to be a fundamental principle of democracy that electorates are able to change their minds if they want to, so if the Italian electorate have voted to guarantee a minimum income for the unemployed, it's not right for the EU to deny them that choice.

I said in an earlier post that the tensions within the EU which have brought us to Brexit are not confined to the UK, and this latest development in Italy is an example of that. It's likely that we'll see further examples of national electorates voting for policies the EU wishes to deny them, which may lead to more countries than Britain leaving in future.

We share the same view of the primacy of democratic legitimacy - but the club, which has other democratically elected members, has the right to set, and enforce its rules.

Italy has the right to leave that club if it doesn't like the rules, it doesn't have the right to sign up to the rules, then ignore then and remain a member.

 

[andysays]

We share the same view of the primacy of democratic legitimacy - but the club, which has other democratically elected members, has the right to set, and enforce its rules.

Italy has the right to leave that club if it doesn't like the rules, it doesn't have the right to sign up to the rules, then ignore then and remain a member.

I'm not suggesting it does, I'm suggesting that this sort of high-handed behaviour by the EU commission may lead many Italians to think they don't want to be part of the club anymore.

 

[mauvais]

I said in an earlier post that the tensions within the EU which have brought us to Brexit are not confined to the UK, and this latest development in Italy is an example of that. It's likely that we'll see further examples of national electorates voting for policies the EU wishes to deny them, which may lead to more countries than Britain leaving in future.

Not until they've seen how Brexit pans out.

 

[kebabking]

I'm not suggesting it does, I'm suggesting that this sort of high-handed behaviour by the EU commission may lead many Italians to think they don't want to be part of the club anymore.

So do I - I also take the view that the single currency is a foolish idea that only has one logical destination, and that there are a good number of countries that would be better off outside it.

However, until Italy decides to leave it, I don't think it's fair on the other member states for Italy to ignore the rules.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

So do I - I also take the view that the single currency is a foolish idea that only has one logical destination, and that there are a good number of countries that would be better off outside it.

However, until Italy decides to leave it, I don't think it's fair on the other member states for Italy to ignore the rules.

Your notion of fairness is quite strange.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Not until they've seen how Brexit pans out.

“May”. From Europe to the Middle East and beyond, this idea that *everyone* in the world looks to the U.K. or US before deciding anything needs to die

 

[mauvais]

“May”. From Europe to the Middle East and beyond, this idea that *everyone* in the world looks to the U.K. or US before deciding anything needs to die

A strange conflation. Noone else will leave of their own volition until they see what happens to the first one to do so, and so far it's not exactly an encouraging example. Nothing to do with being the UK per se.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

A strange conflation. Noone else will leave of their own volition until they see what happens to the first one to do so, and so far it's not exactly an encouraging example. Nothing to do with being the UK per se.

I just meant that it’s odd to think *all* italians would place the same weight on Brexit as you do- if we weren’t in the U.K. then same concept applies. Some might, just as Andysays-says some may be swayed by the EU’s actions re Italy. It would be just as odd to say everyone in the U.K. definitely voted leave due to what happened with Greece.

 

[mauvais]

I just meant that it’s odd to think *all* italians would place the same weight on Brexit as you do- if we weren’t in the U.K. then same concept applies. Some might, just as Andysays-says some may be swayed by the EU’s actions re Italy. It would be just as odd to say everyone in the U.K. definitely voted leave due to what happened with Greece.

Noone's saying any of this. Since we're talking representative democracies, not direct ones, it's highly unlikely any government - even an anti EU one - will offer up an exit referendum until Brexit has played out and they've seen what the possibilities for a deal are. The only benefit would be to Brexiteers.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Noone's saying any of this. Since we're talking representative democracies, not direct ones, it's highly unlikely any government - even an anti EU one - will offer up an exit referendum until Brexit has played out and they've seen what the possibilities for a deal are. The only benefit would be to Brexiteers.

Thanks for insuring your goalposts are more clearly defined, no they probably won’t. . Re “the only benefit would be to brexiteers” The only benefit of what? Define “brexiteers”. What benefits Rees Mogg isn’t of any use to me, for example.

 

[mauvais]

Thanks for insuring your goalposts are more clearly defined, no they probably won’t. . Re “the only benefit would be to brexiteers” The only benefit of what? Define “brexiteers”. What benefits Rees Mogg isn’t of any use to me, for example.

The only clear benefit of another country entering into the grand old exit shitshow would be to proponents of Brexit, in terms of public support, as it would show that they weren't alone in their folly. The effect on negotiations would be more complicated but if it were another major economy it might be the catalyst for splitting the EU into a well defined two-tier membership model and this might help soft Brexiteers get a deal that was more than nominal but much less than being out in the cold. None of this helps the other imaginary country very much, as they would inevitably be better served by waiting rather than belatedly wading into our badly organised mess.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

The only clear benefit of another country entering into the grand old exit shitshow would be to proponents of Brexit, in terms of public support, as it would show that they weren't alone in their folly. The effect on negotiations would be more complicated but if it were another major economy it might be the catalyst for splitting the EU into a well defined two-tier membership model and this might help soft Brexiteers get a deal that was more than nominal but much less than being out in the cold. None of this helps the other imaginary country very much, as they would inevitably be better served by waiting rather than belatedly wading into our badly organised mess.

If a country that’s actually in the Eurozone leaves it it will only benefit brexiteers? Has rum been taken?
I’m out for tonight ALREADY, I must learn to keep away from this thread for the foreseeable!

 

[xarmian]

So do I - I also take the view that the single currency is a foolish idea that only has one logical destination, and that there are a good number of countries that would be better off outside it.

However, until Italy decides to leave it, I don't think it's fair on the other member states for Italy to ignore the rules.

It's not the Eurozone. It's Maastricht and the fiscal pact. The EU is trying to write the fiscal pact into law. National Fiscal Flexibility: EU Parliament Plans a Big Step Backwards • Social Europe

I and many others have argued that the basic EU treaties have flexibility to accommodate most social democratic policies such as those in the 2017 Manifesto of the UK Labour Party. Our argument may soon suffer a decisive blow from the EU parliament.

In March 2012 twenty-five EU national governments signed the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance(TSCG), the “fiscal pact”. By signing national governments “contracted” (the treaty term) to obey its detailed fiscal rules. The TSCG did not achieve unanimous approval, thus could not become part of the de facto EU constitution; i.e., contrary to the intention of the fiscally reactionary governments, it was not incorporated into the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU).​

This is not a distinction without difference. In practice the status of the TSCG and the two basic and unanimously adopted treaties are fundamentally different (the other is the Treaty on European Union, TEU). Because of the lack of unanimity, the TSCG is not a condition of membership, while the two basic treaties are.

If sufficiently annoyed by the application of the TSCG a government could withdraw from it and remain an EU member. That option does not apply to the basic treaties (TFEU and TEU). Of more immediate importance, the European Commission is not legally empowered to enforce the TSCG (see statement by the vice-president of the European Commission). To eliminate the flexibility and legal ambiguity of the TSCG the European Commission proposes that its provisions become European law by act of the European Parliament (EP).

As I explained in a previous Social Europe article, the TSCG/Fiscal Pact is very bad, enforcing upon member governments dysfunctional macroeconomic polices whose basic concepts are technically flawed (explained here), and whose enforcement procedure would be anti-democratic. The first clause of Article 3 removes ambiguity from the Maastricht convergence criteria that it seeks to codify: “The budgetary position of the general government shall be balanced or in surplus”, and governments may “deviate” from this rule only under very restrictive conditions (specified in Paragraph 3 of Article 3).​

and

With the EP dominated by parties of the centre-right, passage of this austerity-enshrining legislation is highly likely if not a certainty. According to Agence Europe, in the initial parliamentary debate after formal statement of the intent to make the fiscal pact EU law the response from MEPs was overwhelmingly in favour, including support from mainstream social democrats. MEP Marco Valli of the Five Star Movement accurately summarized the proposed legislation as “institutionalization of the troika”, referring to the infamous coalition of debt collectors that ravaged Greece.
​

Progress on making it law Legislative train schedule | European Parliament

The EU believes it is possible for all member states to simultaneously be in surplus and they intend to keep punishing the poor until it happens.

​

 

[Ranbay]

we must be like 96% done by now?

 

[Pickman's model]

we must be like 96% done by now?

they'll never find 96% of theresa may

 

[DexterTCN]

Some of the responses here are quite shocking in their willingness to overlook the reality of the unelected European Commission telling the recently elected government of Italy to revise its budget, including campaign promises guaranteeing a minimum income for the unemployed, and giving them a deadline of three weeks to submit a new, draft budget to Brussels, because they said the first draft represented a "particularly serious non-compliance" with its recommendations.

This is, apparently, a previously unprecedented move with regard to an EU member state, but let's not concern ourselves with that, rules are rules after all...

It is unprecedented because the EU let them get away with it the last 3 years without applying sanctions, whilst they continued to increase their debts without any reasonable plan to deal with it. Increasing the debt and increasing its percentage. The EU understands that the debt will increase but wants the percentage to reduce.

Cutting tax and increasing public spending is great when your house is in order. Look at Germany for example. Italy's debt is the second highest in the EU (way over 100% of output) and needs to be addressed.

But those unelected EU officials are a law unto themselves.

Especially the Central Bank President Draghi, the Foreign Policy President Mogherini and Parliament President Tajani. Who are all Italian, of course.

 

[butchersapron]

Wow, the perfect mix of ex-socialist and new ongoing nationalist analysis from Dexter there. Disgusting.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Cutting tax and increasing public spending is great when your house is in order. Look at Germany for example. Italy's debt is the second highest in the EU (way over 100% of output)

Just going full on pro austerity now then?

Your vision of an independent Scotland doesn't sound much fun

 

[danny la rouge]

Cutting tax and increasing public spending is great when your house is in order. Look at Germany for example

Wow. Just wow.

 

[danny la rouge]

“There is a hierarchy of states within the eurozone and close calculation of national interest. Legitimacy for each state derives from its own history, but also from the structures of power and popular assent, including democratic elections. There is no prospect of a single European state, and hence no prospect of unified fiscal policy. The reforms that could take place would occur within an existing hierarchy of power, dominated by the core countries and Germany”.
Crisis in the Eurozone - C. Lapavitsas et al (2012) p65

 

[danny la rouge]

“However, the institutional malfunctioning of the eurozone was not merely the result of poor design, and nor of bad economic theory. It was, rather, the outcome of political and social relations that have underpinned the creation of a new international reserve currency. At the root of the turmoil in the eurozone lie class and imperial interests, not the ‘technical’ errors of monetary union.” p167

 

[andysays]

It is unprecedented because the EU let them get away with it the last 3 years without applying sanctions, whilst they continued to increase their debts without any reasonable plan to deal with it. Increasing the debt and increasing its percentage. The EU understands that the debt will increase but wants the percentage to reduce.

Cutting tax and increasing public spending is great when your house is in order. Look at Germany for example. Italy's debt is the second highest in the EU (way over 100% of output) and needs to be addressed.

But those unelected EU officials are a law unto themselves.

Especially the Central Bank President Draghi, the Foreign Policy President Mogherini and Parliament President Tajani. Who are all Italian, of course.

 

[butchersapron]

Wow. Just wow.

I'm reading a book by an academic marxist and his mate (Corbynism: A Critical Approach by Frederick Harry Pitts and Matt Bolton) and have literally just came across this passage:



(The book is a hilarious bad-tempered 400 page quasi-theoretical rant about brexit that claims to come from the value-theory tradition of marxism (Postone etc) but literally just calls Corbyn a future hitler enabling stalino-nazi and urges people to support a guardian style progressive neo-liberalism as the necessary grounding and safeguard for future socialist developments - so stagist left-liberalism hiding behind marxist phrasing. And to think i nearly bothered with Pitts books on New Ways to Read Marx. Not now).