Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
but the only deal that EU will agree to will be anathema to tory brexiteers - may needs labour remainers to to break ranks. its either that or no deal.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Oh yeah, it'll be extremely diff for her to get the numbers but her whips think when push comes to shove the whips will be able to wear down most of the ERG lot. Word is they think they'll be able to whittle the hard-core wreckers down to sub 20 (remember there's actually no such thing as a tory rebel). Notice how much appears to resting on the extent of the transition period; some of them are signalling they're ripe for taking.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
"word is" from where? May has already explicitly ruled out customs union (aka "norway") because its shit - uk would be still under EU rules but have no say. If may agreed to that, it would be denounced by the brexit media, farage et al as a total betrayal - even more so than chequers - i can't see many of tory brexit hardcore folding on that - it would make a mockery of everything they have campaigned for.
Thats why may is trying to fudge the irish sea border issue so that the UK can leave the customs union, but norn iron sort of stay in - but with enough ambiguity to keep the DUP from voting it down - but they are not going to budge. Shes just going round in circles repeatedly asking for the same things in different ways and is getting exactly nowhere.
Thats why may is trying to fudge the irish sea border issue so that the UK can leave the customs union, but norn iron sort of stay in - but with enough ambiguity to keep the DUP from voting it down - but they are not going to budge. Shes just going round in circles repeatedly asking for the same things in different ways and is getting exactly nowhere.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, "word is" is rubbish...should have said I heard it from some commentator on telly but the truth is I cam't remember who/where/when; sorry. That's the beauty of the so-called 'blind' option where she'd be able to persuade the rock & the hard place that things would only be worst of all worlds for a short time until they have the techo in place etc.
I wish the Tory Disorganisedment would collapse next week, or at least before Xmas?
The phrase 'those Tory cunts'
is a blatant tautology 
The phrase 'those Tory cunts'
is a blatant tautology 
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
The phrase 'those Tory cunts'
not necessarily.
not all cunts are tories
Puddy_Tat said:not necessarily.
not all cunts are tories
Annoying correct post there
Full-on Puddy-pedant wins
But also : fair dos for that
toblerone3
Grrrrr
I wonder if what happens in the US regarding the fate of Trump (in the mid terms for example) will have any bearing on what happens with Brexit.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Yes.
It's not. But that isn't the problem.
To keep a border open all goods on both sides need to meet regulations on both sides (single market, no 3rd party trade deals) and have no taxes owing if they cross (customs union, VAT area, no 3rd party trade deals).
There will be no withdrawal deal without an agreed backstop to keep the Irish border open whatever happens in the trade negotiations. No withdrawal deal means no transition period and no trade deal for the foreseeable.
The backstop means agreeing that NI stays in CU and SM if there's no other way to keep the border open. That can be done with a border in the Irish Sea or by the whole of the UK staying in CU and SM or the whole of the UK staying in the CU and NI staying in SM with a lesser border in the Irish Sea.
The DUP and other unionists in Westminster won't allow a border in the Irish Sea. The Tory Brexiters won't allow the UK to stay in CU but Labour might whip CU and SM through. May would destroy her party if she strikes a deal that relies on the Labour whip. There's no deal she can make and she can't get no deal through parliament either.
Freedom of movement does come into it if the single market is part of the solution but it's not the cause of the problem. No one has suggested that the common travel area would end because of Brexit. The border problem is about goods and services not people.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
So let me see if I've got this straight...
No deal: Remainer tories won't wear it. Would spell certain doom for May.
No CU except NI, sea border: DUP won't wear it, nor enough labour rebels to make up the numbers.
No CU, land border in NI: EU won't wear it, ends up as no deal. Probably enough tories would rebel to shitcan it in parliament anyway.
Chequers compromise: EU won't wear it, nor the Rees-Mobb, nor Corbyn. Already dead.
Customs union, Norway-esque deal: DUP won't wear it, nor tory leavers. Would need a Corbyn whip, which won't be got without enough concessions to ruin May. Also abandons May's last red line.
Delayed leaving: Kicks it all down the road until either Corbyn gets in and accepts Norway deal, or a moderate tory leader does likewise, or a tory leaver takes charge and goes for the Thelma-and-Louise option. May most likely finished. Equation only changes if tories get a majority in a GE and can fuck off the DUP.
Have I missed anything?
No deal: Remainer tories won't wear it. Would spell certain doom for May.
No CU except NI, sea border: DUP won't wear it, nor enough labour rebels to make up the numbers.
No CU, land border in NI: EU won't wear it, ends up as no deal. Probably enough tories would rebel to shitcan it in parliament anyway.
Chequers compromise: EU won't wear it, nor the Rees-Mobb, nor Corbyn. Already dead.
Customs union, Norway-esque deal: DUP won't wear it, nor tory leavers. Would need a Corbyn whip, which won't be got without enough concessions to ruin May. Also abandons May's last red line.
Delayed leaving: Kicks it all down the road until either Corbyn gets in and accepts Norway deal, or a moderate tory leader does likewise, or a tory leaver takes charge and goes for the Thelma-and-Louise option. May most likely finished. Equation only changes if tories get a majority in a GE and can fuck off the DUP.
Have I missed anything?
The amusing fact that May is only in this position because she called an unnecessary general election and lost her majority.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
A development so comedically perfect I still can't entirely believe it.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Which servant of the ruling class fucked up the most do you think? From their point of view?
Was it David Cameron when he offered the referendum, thinking either that he wouldn't win a majority so it wouldn't matter or he would win the referendum so it wouldn't matter?
Was it Margaret Beckett and the 'fools' who nominated Corbyn and got him on the ballot paper?
Or Theresa May when she called the snap GE?
Was it David Cameron when he offered the referendum, thinking either that he wouldn't win a majority so it wouldn't matter or he would win the referendum so it wouldn't matter?
Was it Margaret Beckett and the 'fools' who nominated Corbyn and got him on the ballot paper?
Or Theresa May when she called the snap GE?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
cameron, who got us into this unholy mess
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
DC, for sure. Those other options are large, but Brexit is a once-in-a-generation kind of thing. Will one day be listed in a one-paragraph history of 21st Century Britain.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
I mean, imagine if he hadn't and Corbyn was long gone and Cameron and Osborne were still in charge, with a majority...
But yeah they probably would see it that way.
She voluntarily took the poison challece in stepping up to lead the Tories after the referendum.
Out of hubris calls an unnecessary GE .
Fights the campaign with all the charisma, chalm and projected confidence of a broken bog brush.
As a result of losing her majority, is forced to do a deal with the DUP lunes, paying them off with the non existent "money tree."
Appoints Borris Johnson as foreign secretary.
This is not someone who has a strong record on wise and strategic decision making.
But ready to replace her are the trustworthy likeable and competent Johnson, Mogg and Davis.
Who's writing this season?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
kurt sutter out of sons of anarchyShe voluntarily took the poison challece in stepping up to lead the Tories after the referendum.
Out of hubris calls an unnecessary GE .
Fights the campaign with all the charisma, chalm and projected confidence of a broken bog brush.
As a result of losing her majority, is forced to do a deal with the DUP lunes, paying them off with the non existent "money tree."
Appoints Borris Johnson as foreign secretary.
This is not someone who has a strong record on wise and strategic decision making.
But ready to replace her are the trustworthy likeable and competent Johnson, Mogg and Davis.
Who's writing this season?
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
Someone should get stabbed in the crotch with a pool cue soon then
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
May definitely. Despite the shitstorm Cameron left, the tories and the interests they serve could've got through the whole thing relatively unscathed, and quite possibly with some exciting new opporunities in the field of treating the British public like shit, had there only been a halfway competent politician at the helm. May's one and only decisive action as PM has been to shoot herself and her party in the foot with a snap election.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Nope that about covers it, she's playing Russian roulette with a bullet in every chamber.
tommers
Fuck it, it's fine.
Those haven't gone anywhere.
"A necessary relaxation of red tape to enable Great British business to compete with the rest of the world on an equal footing in these difficult times"
I reckon within 6 months.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
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