Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Kaka Tim]

It's worth bearing in mind that for a long time UKIP staffers have targeted comments sections in the press. Or at least this is what a journalist friend tells me - she claimed that sometimes 80% of comments on a story would be from the same group of IP addresses which matched with people sending out UKIP press statements.

Im sure that's part of it - but its still a real and widespread POV

 

[kebabking]

Employment and criminal law yes, corporate law no, the British government can't change the legal structure of an American company, McDonnell knows this which is why he said British companies in his speech.
There is no way that a Labour Govt is going to be able to force Amazon whose shares are traded on the New York stock exchange to put 1% of them a year in a fund to benefit UK workers.

i disagree - UK employment law can force companies, even if owned overseas, to pay employer contributions for pensions, so we've already crossed the salary+ rubicon. if the legislation was framed so that shares were a mandated part of any renumeration/pension package, as they are for many senior staff in commercial organisations, then you get around any problem.

the clever thing would then be for a union or other organisation to form a stakeholder vehicle whereby individual shareholders could pool their votes into one large block, as the commercial managers do in the private sector.

it would, imv, be unhelpful to get to specific/fussed about in exactly what way shares should come into the hands of the employees of a company - all that matters is that they do, and that they are used, collectively, in the employees interests.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Check for yourself.

Our record

Now who's revealing a lack of knowledge?

On what basis can you honestly and with a straight face call this anaemic take on extremely limited social democracy socialism?

 

[SpackleFrog]

Im sure that's part of it - but its still a real and widespread POV

And always will be while we remain in the EU.

 

[MickiQ]

i disagree - UK employment law can force companies, even if owned overseas, to pay employer contributions for pensions, so we've already crossed the salary+ rubicon. if the legislation was framed so that shares were a mandated part of any renumeration/pension package, as they are for many senior staff in commercial organisations, then you get around any problem.

the clever thing would then be for a union or other organisation to form a stakeholder vehicle whereby individual shareholders could pool their votes into one large block, as the commercial managers do in the private sector.

it would, imv, be unhelpful to get to specific/fussed about in exactly what way shares should come into the hands of the employees of a company - all that matters is that they do, and that they are used, collectively, in the employees interests.

I actually think staff owning shares is a good idea and am all in favour of it,my previous employee had a share save scheme, I never used it because it was an American company and folks had to deal with US brokers since the shares were held on the New York exchange, any UK scheme that involves the shares of foreign companies is going to hit these problems, Pension contributions are just money, shares aren't.

 

[Wilf]

Where we are now, I've got a tendency to think about it in terms of agency rather than the structural context, maybe too much so. But I see May's position being the core of the issue: she (and those around her) have no rationale other than to do a deal, almost regardless of what it is. That's the only way to put right her fuck up in calling the 2017 election. It's a kind of pragmatic shitting desperation that the swivellers know they can humiliate and disrupt, but won't be able to displace. If anything Labour are in a worse position, because they offer very little threat in terms of a vote of no confidence. The only vote of no confidence/gen election scenario would be Lab + all opposition parties + swivellers - most unlikely (Lab and opposition parties plus Soubry et al doesn't work mathematically because of Field etc).

I don't personally agree with the 'Corbyn has played a blinder, leaving the Tories to fuck up' line, with this 5 tests or whatever (though I think many on here do). A result is that Labour are unable to really get across to voters that they are on the side of the coalition of voters they need* (working class/working class brexiteers/middle class young/precarious etc.). Don't think Labour knows how to pull that together and is failing to do so in the context of brexit.

* Pedantic bit of anarcho-distancing: I'm not a fan of cross class alliances, but surely Corbyn is in his brand of politics.

 

[DexterTCN]

Now who's revealing a lack of knowledge?

On what basis can you honestly and with a straight face call this anaemic take on extremely limited social democracy socialism?

Well...I would be comparing it to the UK governments over the past few decades and the cultural and social differences between Scotland and the UK. I take it you're comparing it to some non-existent utopia you've imagined.

And as to 'anaemic'...mind yourself...it's better than you lot have managed, don't forget. You've achieved fuck all.

 

[DotCommunist]

Labour are slightly slipping in the polls despite the Tories horror show.

yougov had them down against con the other day opinium up. oddly it seems the lib dems are gaining in some polls, not much but a bounce.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Well...I would be comparing it to the UK governments over the past few decades and the cultural and social differences between Scotland and the UK. I take it you're comparing it to some non-existent utopia you've imagined.

And as to 'anaemic'...mind yourself...it's better than you lot have managed, don't forget. You've achieved fuck all.

Your use of 'you' and 'we' merely serves to highlight your class treachery.

What have you achieved?

 

[MickiQ]

Where we are now, I've got a tendency to think about it in terms of agency rather than the structural context, maybe too much so. But I see May's position being the core of the issue: she (and those around her) have no rationale other than to do a deal, almost regardless of what it is. That's the only way to put right her fuck up in calling the 2017 election. It's a kind of pragmatic shitting desperation that the swivellers know they can humiliate and disrupt, but won't be able to displace. If anything Labour are in a worse position, because they offer very little threat in terms of a vote of no confidence. The only vote of no confidence/gen election scenario would be Lab + all opposition parties + swivellers - most unlikely (Lab and opposition parties plus Soubry et al doesn't work mathematically because of Field etc).

I don't personally agree with the 'Corbyn has played a blinder, leaving the Tories to fuck up' line, with this 5 tests or whatever (though I think many on here do). A result is that Labour are unable to really get across to voters that they are on the side of the coalition of voters they need* (working class/working class brexiteers/middle class young/precarious etc.). Don't think Labour knows how to pull that together and is failing to do so in the context of brexit.

* Pedantic bit of anarcho-distancing: I'm not a fan of cross class alliances, but surely Corbyn is in his brand of politics.

The swivellers aren't going to bring down May unless they can be sure of replacing her with one of their own, no matter how much they hate her for not believing in their one True Cause, bringing her down is too risky,
Labour have at least a fighting chance of winning a GE, and isn't going to deliver a Brexit that Mogg wants, if they delay it, it will be almost as bad as cancelling it since if you can delay for 6 months you can delay for a year, if you can delay for 2 years, The longer it gets delayed the more likely it just gets canned. A Labour that depends on the SNP for power (which is as serious possibility) might just can it up front.

 

[DexterTCN]

Your use of 'you' and 'we' merely serves to highlight your class treachery.

What have you achieved?

Nope...you said our achievements were anaemic...I asked what your movement has done. That's entirely fair.

Take away accusation and insult, your answer was empty.

 

[Wilf]

The swivellers aren't going to bring down May unless they can be sure of replacing her with one of their own, no matter how much they hate her for not believing in their one True Cause, bringing her down is too risky,
Labour have at least a fighting chance of winning a GE, and isn't going to deliver a Brexit that Mogg wants, if they delay it, it will be almost as bad as cancelling it since if you can delay for 6 months you can delay for a year, if you can delay for 2 years, The longer it gets delayed the more likely it just gets canned. A Labour that depends on the SNP for power (which is as serious possibility) might just can it up front.

To be honest, I can't see any route to a general election pre-brexit. Only scenario afterwards is May resigning or being kicked out and a new Tory Leader calling one (via fixed term parliament shenanigans). Be daft predicting what would happen in a GE now or next year, given the disparity between polls and result in 2017. But really, Labour should be miles ahead now. Personally, I don't think Corbyn will ever be PM.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Nope...you said our achievements were anaemic...I asked what your movement has done. That's entirely fair.

Take away accusation and insult, your answer was empty.

The SNP isn't a movement. My movement, the labour movement, has achieved quite a lot mate

 

[Pickman's model]

Your use of 'you' and 'we' merely serves to highlight your class treachery.

What have you achieved?

wasting your time

 

[Mr Moose]

yougov had them down against con the other day opinium up. oddly it seems the lib dems are gaining in some polls, not much but a bounce.

Labour are consistently down across most polls from where they were a few months back. It was neck a neck and has become mostly a Tory lead, which is astounding really. Maybe the conferences will change all that.

 

[Pickman's model]

Labour are consistently down across most polls from where they were a few months back. It was neck a neck and has become mostly a Tory lead, which is astounding really. Maybe the conferences will change all that.

Any politician will tell you there's only one poll that really matters. Who can forget last year's polls supporting May when she called the election, and the rather different figures which emerged on the night of the ge

 

[kebabking]

Labour are consistently down across most polls from where they were a few months back. It was neck a neck and has become mostly a Tory lead, which is astounding really. Maybe the conferences will change all that.

there'll be a bounce, simply because there'll be publicity about things that have widespread, settled public support - rail nationalisation etc.. whereas the tory conference is pretty unlikely, even if it doesn't decend into actual violence, to offer much in the way of jam, because thats not what tories offer.

Labours problem - and there are worse problems to have - is that as the brexit date looms ever larger its options for fudging and using language to try and please as many possible and offending as few as possible are going to hit the sand. its going to wake up on 28th March with just three options, none of them attractive - help May push whatever basic deal she's got (air worthiness certification, security certification, Europol, that kind of stuff..) through, team up with the the remainiest Tories to force her to ask for an A50 extention, or sit back (while going on tv and saying how badly its all been done), and watch as no deal/crash out comes to pass.

all are going to look crap - coz they are - and all are going to lose votes by the barrowload.

 

[DotCommunist]

to who, the new centrist party lol. Which is threatened once every two months now.

 

[MickiQ]

there'll be a bounce, simply because there'll be publicity about things that have widespread, settled public support - rail nationalisation etc.. whereas the tory conference is pretty unlikely, even if it doesn't decend into actual violence, to offer much in the way of jam, because thats not what tories offer.

Now you're trying to get my hopes up now aren't you?, I am hoping for a repeat of last year's classic but I suspect someone will go round with a screwdriver and make sure everything is tightly fixed to the wall

 

[Mr Moose]

Any politician will tell you there's only one poll that really matters. Who can forget last year's polls supporting May when she called the election, and the rather different figures which emerged on the night of the ge

Very good point. Who could forget Ed’s sizeable lead either?

 

[kebabking]

to who, the new centrist party lol

no, the leavers will get the hump, as will the remainers. i think upsetting the remainers will effect Labour more as they tend to be younger, tend to live in less 'weigh the Labour vote, don't bother counting it' constituancies and more marginals, tend to be more Corbynista, tend to be more likely to be local activists at election time - and as they've (to some degree) emerged from nowhere, i think they may return there.

 

[gosub]

Any politician will tell you there's only one poll that really matters. Who can forget last year's polls supporting May when she called the election, and the rather different figures which emerged on the night of the ge

except when its an election...where they seem to now think the results are only valid for 2 years or a referendum where you have another one coz you didn't like the result of the last one

 

[Pickman's model]

except when its an election...where they seem to now think the results are only valid for 2 years or a referendum where you have another one coz you didn't like the result of the last one

Does tm have a mandate for what she's doing? And do we yet know a) if there'll be a second ref and b) what any question in such an exercise will be? It's by no means certain any second vote would do other than repeat the previous result

 

[DotCommunist]

no, the leavers will get the hump, as will the remainers. i think upsetting the remainers will effect Labour more as they tend to be younger, tend to live in less 'weigh the Labour vote, don't bother counting it' constituancies and more marginals, tend to be more Corbynista, tend to be more likely to be local activists at election time - and as they've (to some degree) emerged from nowhere, i think they may return there.

mild version of the youthquake/entryists line there tbf kebab, although you put a massive hedge of tends around it. I'd have thought pissing off the labour leave votes in the North/north east was the worry.

 

[Duncan2]

It seems to me actually inconceivable that a second referendum could take place reversing the result of the first referendum even before its implementation.I have been surprised before however.

 

[kebabking]

..I'd have thought pissing off the labour leave votes in the North/north east was the worry.

dunno, massively stereotypical of course, but i think they are less likely to abandon Labour than people who are relatively new to Labour. in lots of the Northern and safe seats you could afford to drop 20% of the labour vote and still win comfortably, try that in the marginals in the Midlands and South and you'd go from first or close second to fucking miles away.

 

[Winot]

dunno, massively stereotypical of course, but i think they are less likely to abandon Labour than people who are relatively new to Labour. in lots of the Northern and safe seats you could afford to drop 20% of the labour vote and still win comfortably, try that in the marginals in the Midlands and South and you'd go from first or close second to fucking miles away.

Didn’t Labour’s vote in the NE go massively to UKIP in 2015?

 

[Teaboy]

It seems to me actually inconceivable that a second referendum could take place reversing the result of the first referendum even before its implementation.I have been surprised before however.

This is kind of where I'm at, at the moment. This being said though I'm not sure what happens if Parliament votes down May's shit deal, assuming she can even come back with one. I presume she's resign, but what then? Would the tory remainers bring down a government if it was headed by a no deal / crash out leaver?

Fuck knows, frankly.

 

[Pickman's model]

This is kind of where I'm at, at the moment. This being said though I'm not sure what happens if Parliament votes down May's shit deal, assuming she can even come back with one. I presume she's resign, but what then? Would the tory remainers bring down a government if it was headed by a no deal / crash out leaver?

Fuck knows, frankly.

It is the party before country conundrum

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

It is the party before country conundrum

Not a conundrum for vermin; self first, then party. Fuck the country.