Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[gosub]

Q1: Deal?

Deal.
No Deal.

Q2: If Deal wins, which deal?

Norway.
Canada.

Q3: If Norway wins, do you mean it?

Yeah.
Nah fuck it, Remain.

Can we have £72K each for doing it as well? (warning writing What the fuck is the point of politicians? on your ballot paper would spoil it)

 

[gosub]

It does re-emphasise what a tremendous fuck up the whole thing has been, from Cameron failing to build in any kind of clarity on how the final terms would be agreed, to the Tories fucking everything up in the negotiations (to the point where it's not even clear whether 'chequers' still exists), to Labour having no way of relating the leadership to what the members/unions wanted... only thing that's clear is we won't be in the EU... at some point.. under some kind of conditions.

To be fair he did. Spent a lot of money on that leaflet that went out at taxpayers expense... Shame Mrs May didn't read it

 

[gosub]

Which is another bizarre thing, at least going by my own estimation of how many leavers I expect had the single market at the forefront of their mind when voting.

Hard to say a lot of effort was expended by both referendum campaigns to say the EU and the Single Market were the same thing

 

[gosub]

"... and the freedom to have bendy bananas".

Don't drag the WTO acquis into this

 

[andysays]

Well, if this doesn't concentrate minds to get a proper Brexit deal sorted then nothing will

Brexit: Pet travel warning in no-deal planning papers

 

[paolo]

I don’t quite follow McDonnels referendum proposal, in terms of what happens if the vote is to reject the deal.

If I understand it rightly, in that case, he’s saying government is sent back to renegotiate. But what then?

Referendum No.3, on deal v2?
Or deal v2 then happens regardless?
Or (a variation) deal v2 is not meaningfully different than v1, and happens regardless?

Or maybe he means only have referendum No. 2, if there’s no deal? Choices being accept no deal, or send govt back to get any deal other than crash out?

Anyone know?

 

[gosub]

Well, if this doesn't concentrate minds to get a proper Brexit deal sorted then nothing will

Brexit: Pet travel warning in no-deal planning papers

State media will be under instruction not to play into the hands of 'project fear'. The actual papers Department for Transport publishes no deal planning information, actually have some more serious concerns....However, whilst the concerns raised, are real, grave and need to be sorted its assembled from a paper experts point of view, actual headaches from a real logistics point of view aren't taken into account....


Anyway, off shopping ...number of tins I'm buying is going to go up

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Well, if this doesn't concentrate minds to get a proper Brexit deal sorted then nothing will

Brexit: Pet travel warning in no-deal planning papers

Oh noes, can’t take em to the EU, but can continue to take them to most of the Caribbean, the US and so on...

 

[mauvais]

I don’t quite follow McDonnels referendum proposal, in terms of what happens if the vote is to reject the deal.

If I understand it rightly, in that case, he’s saying government is sent back to renegotiate. But what then?

Referendum No.3, on deal v2?
Or deal v2 then happens regardless?
Or (a variation) deal v2 is not meaningfully different than v1, and happens regardless?

Or maybe he means only have referendum No. 2, if there’s no deal? Choices being accept no deal, or send govt back to get any deal other than crash out?

Anyone know?

It's a hedge isn't it. By the time there's been a referendum, a rejection, another process of negotiation, all that need happen is the wind blow the wrong way for a second and suddenly there's something more important to do than figure out Brexit, well, we tried, etcetera. Lord knows we're due plenty of such events - second debt crisis anyone?

The whole thing kicks the can down the road and on balance that's probably a better electoral approach than openly offering the possibility of Remain.

 

[Mr Moose]

State media will be under instruction not to play into the hands of 'project fear'. The actual papers Department for Transport publishes no deal planning information, actually have some more serious concerns....However, whilst the concerns raised, are real, grave and need to be sorted its assembled from a paper experts point of view, actual headaches from a real logistics point of view aren't taken into account....


Anyway, off shopping ...number of tins I'm buying is going to go up

Well it's a nice bit of nostalgia for those folk who vaguely remember rationing.

 

[8ball]

It's a hedge isn't it. By the time there's been a referendum, a rejection, another process of negotiation, all that need happen is the wind blow the wrong way for a second and suddenly there's something more important to do than figure out Brexit, well, we tried, etcetera. Lord knows we're due plenty of such events - second debt crisis anyone?

The whole thing kicks the can down the road and on balance that's probably a better electoral approach than openly offering the possibility of Remain.

That was prettt much my thinking

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I don’t quite follow McDonnels referendum proposal, in terms of what happens if the vote is to reject the deal.

If I understand it rightly, in that case, he’s saying government is sent back to renegotiate. But what then?

Referendum No.3, on deal v2?
Or deal v2 then happens regardless?
Or (a variation) deal v2 is not meaningfully different than v1, and happens regardless?

Or maybe he means only have referendum No. 2, if there’s no deal? Choices being accept no deal, or send govt back to get any deal other than crash out?

Anyone know?

and of course any of the above relies on the rest of the EU agreeing to extend the article 50 period rather than saying 'piss off' or the local equivalent in a variety of languages...

 

[mauvais]

That was prettt much my thinking

After 52% vote in favour of some form of Brexit, then 50%+ vote against against that form of it, especially if it's an inherited one, I think you can start to form any narrative you like, much more freely than now. A Labour govt has far more latitude to draw a line under matters than May or most obvious successors do to blame their own party for not only initiating it all but inventing the various permutations of this mess.

GE then prompt referendum for some arbitrary reason is therefore wise from a Labour POV. For the Tories the best options must be either cooperate long enough to force some wonky shit through or three-option referendum where oh dear the people can't decide we'll have to be very clear that the UK deserves a fairer deal for allonewordhardworkingfamilies and whilst we are still in the EU we're going to be very clear very clear very clear OutOfMemoryException line 1127.

 

[SpackleFrog]

It's a hedge isn't it. By the time there's been a referendum, a rejection, another process of negotiation, all that need happen is the wind blow the wrong way for a second and suddenly there's something more important to do than figure out Brexit, well, we tried, etcetera. Lord knows we're due plenty of such events - second debt crisis anyone?

The whole thing kicks the can down the road and on balance that's probably a better electoral approach than openly offering the possibility of Remain.

It would definitely be better to demand a General Election and promise a different kind of Brexit - dare we say it a Socialist one - but this does not seem to be something Corbyn and McDonnell are ready to do.

 

[paolo]

It would definitely be better to demand a General Election and promise a different kind of Brexit - dare we say it a Socialist one - but this does not seem to be something Corbyn and McDonnell are ready to do.

Sounds stretchy... What’s the minimum run time for a GE? I.e. what time left after to negotiate a different deal before march 29?

Or are you thinking, after a GE win, Labour then go for an extension to exit?

 

[Mr Moose]

It would definitely be better to demand a General Election and promise a different kind of Brexit - dare we say it a Socialist one - but this does not seem to be something Corbyn and McDonnell are ready to do.

Labour have been demanding an election all weekend.

 

[paolo]

How does "demanding an election" actually end up in there being an election?

I feel like a fuckwit for asking, please help.

Footnote: Yes, I'd like one. How do I "demand" it?

 

[gosub]

How does "demanding an election" actually end up in there being an election?

I feel like a fuckwit for asking, please help.

Footnote: Yes, I'd like one. How do I "demand" it?

That was a vox pops from 2years ago

 

[Wilf]

How does "demanding an election" actually end up in there being an election?

I feel like a fuckwit for asking, please help.

Footnote: Yes, I'd like one. How do I "demand" it?

There won't be an election and Corbyn knows it.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Corbyn is pissing me off with all this stuff. He's game-playing when he doesn't really hold any cards, calculating what best to say to shore up his own public support, whether to demand elections or referendums he has no way to bring about. I'd be more inclined to vote for him and his shower if he just came out and told us what he actually thinks about brexit and the tory handling of it, which is a massive open goal.

 

[Poi E]

At least Labour have put indyref2 to bed. No more trouble from Scotland.

 

[SpookyFrank]

How does "demanding an election" actually end up in there being an election?

It doesn't, but when everything goes down the cludgie Corbyn gets to say 'you should've called an election'.

How this actually helps anyone or anything remains unclear. Might get Labour an extra 2% in the polls, at the low low price of economic catastrophe.

 

[butchersapron]

How does "demanding an election" actually end up in there being an election?

I feel like a fuckwit for asking, please help.

Footnote: Yes, I'd like one. How do I "demand" it?

How have those opposed to leaving the EU demanded the process is stopped? It'll be similar to that I imagine.

 

[DexterTCN]

At least Labour have put indyref2 to bed. No more trouble from Scotland.

That's us told then.

 

[nuffsaid]

Corbyn is pissing me off with all this stuff. He's game-playing when he doesn't really hold any cards, calculating what best to say to shore up his own public support, whether to demand elections or referendums he has no way to bring about. I'd be more inclined to vote for him and his shower if he just came out and told us what he actually thinks about brexit and the tory handling of it, which is a massive open goal.

Yes, he's hedging his bets. If he comes out as definite remain he'll lose the leave vote and vice-versa. He'd rather just fight the tories on NHS, jobs, wages etc. and hope the tories implode over Brexit. But to be a viable alternative he needs a Brexit plan and Labour seem as split as the Tories do on Brexit and he doesn't want the spotlight on that. How can you have a vote on the terms of leaving for goodness sake. If that's a No then we have to re-negotiate all over again, while the deadline for Article 50 passes and we end up with no deal. The country can't vote on every flipping detail of a deal, over and over again, that's nonsense.

 

[sealion]

Corbyn is pissing me off with all this stuff. He's game-playing when he doesn't really hold any cards, calculating what best to say to shore up his own public support, whether to demand elections or referendums he has no way to bring about. I'd be more inclined to vote for him and his shower if he just came out and told us what he actually thinks about brexit and the tory handling of it, which is a massive open goal.

He knows he will alienate either the brexiters that voted for him or the corbynista remainers that shout loudest for him. Ambiguity will only buy him so much time.

 

[DotCommunist]

twitterbox is full of people screaming that brexit is the only political reality ever and whoever offers a second reff gets thier vote. Still others are insisting that without endorsing a second reff labour are fucked. A hell of a lot utterly convinced that the labour surge was down to an anti brexit vote, while the polls remain near as dammit neck and neck as they have done for ages. No change. Its almost like brexit might not be the be all and end all for some voters eh.

 

[mojo pixy]

Labour don't really need to present a plan for Brexit, and to try at this stage can only lose them support from somewhere or other. They know for the time being they just need to wait for the tories to eviscerate themselves over it. There are ten thousand ways to hedge and while Labour aren't in control of Brexit, all they really need to do is keep banging on about everything else that matters; jobs, wages, utilities, housing, education, social care...

Also, yesterday's announced plan to appropriate 10% of profits from companies with over 250 employees seems like the kind of thing the EU might not ultimately like too much; so a plan like that may end up wedding them to some form of Brexit anyway.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Also, yesterday's announced plan to appropriate 10% of profits from companies with over 250 employees seems like the kind of thing the EU might not ultimately like too much; so a plan like that may end up wedding them to some form of Brexit anyway.

I can already see the loopholes in that plan. One word: agencies.

 

[Chz]

I can already see the loopholes in that plan. One word: agencies.

Actually thinking things through is not a strong point of any politician. Corbyn is no different to any other in that regard. It sounds like one of those ideas that will struggle to fund itself due to the costs of actually chasing down the revenue. Any true giant of the marketplace will just make sure not to have any profits (on paper) in the meantime.