Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Puddy_Tat]

Thanks for the no nonsense face palm, where did I go wrong?

somewhere around here

Just pretend to renounce it for the paperwork or whatever. I still call myself Scottish with a British passport, there’s harder cheeses to deal with.

assuming this wasn't meant in jest (my comment about blue passports was) then there's something of a difference

without wanting to go in to the merits or otherwise of scottish independence, as things currently stand, you can't get a legally recognisable scottish passport.

if you could, but were living in england, and the choice was to have a scottish passport and restrictions on living / working in england, or having to renounce scottish citizenship in order to live and work freely in england, and facing possible restrictions on living and working in scotland again, it might be a more difficult choice...

obviously it's not yet entirely clear what's on offer to UK citizens currently living / working elsewhere in the EU (or for that matter vice versa - i'm not sure that the PM's words are worth the paper they are printed on)

 

[Kaka Tim]

I'm not sure I buy that, if the alternative presented is No Deal - i.e. a hard border from day 1 in March next year, WTO tariffs and checks etc... (because no transition agreement would exist - what has been provisionally agreed is conditional on negotiating a terms of exit).

That would really fuck Ireland over economically - it's hard to see who would be pushing for that from the EU side, and I imagine the optics would be very damaging for them, as it would be seen to be their 'fault' - most people would surely think it total overreach to crash negotiations by demanding a customs border within the territory of another sovereign country, especially if the issue isn't about preserving the integrity of the single market.

They have stated explicitly and repeatedly from day one that any deal must result in a "frictionless" border between NI and the Republic. A canadian style trade deal excludes that.

 

[pocketscience]

That only applies if you've already got dual citizenship, you can't be left stateless even if you're the sort that no-one wants

What happens if you renounce your UK citizenship for a Spainish citizenship and the Spainish reject your application?
Even if they accept the application, for the waiting period you'd be stateless no?

 

[8ball]

Any thoughts on McDonnell's "vote on the deal, but not include an option to remain" gambit?

I'm undecided.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Any thoughts on McDonnell's "vote on the deal, but not include an option to remain" gambit?

I'm undecided.

I would think there's a technical problem with any vote that has more than two options - if the winner comes out with less than 50 per cent but it is at one or other 'extreme' along whichever line there is, such as hard, soft or no brexit, then that isn't really a mandate to do that thing.

 

[pocketscience]

The (admittedly rather complex) rules on dual citizenship in Germany
Dual citizenship
Allowed under following circumstances:

1. If the other citizenship is that of another EU country or of Switzerland. Non-EU and non-Swiss citizens must usually renounce their old citizenship if they want to become German citizens. There are exceptions made for citizens of countries that do not allow their citizens to renounce their citizenship (e.g., Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica; the following jus-soli countries allow renunciation only if the citizenship was acquired involuntarily by birth there to non-citizen parents: Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Uruguay), or if the renunciation process is too difficult, humiliating or expensive (e.g., Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, Nigeria, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, USA), or, rarely, in individual cases if the renunciation of the old citizenship means enormous disadvantages for the concerned person.
2. If a German citizen acquires a non-EU or non-Swiss citizenship with the permission ("Beibehaltungsgenehmigung (de)") of the German Government (e.g., existing relative ties or property in Germany or in the other country or if the occupation abroad requires domestic citizenship for execution). The voluntary acquisition of a non-EU or non-Swiss citizenship without permission usually means the automatic loss of the German citizenship (but see Point 4). The permission is not necessary if the other citizenship is of another EU country or of Switzerland or if dual citizenship was obtained at birth.
3. If the person is a refugee and holds a refugee travel document during naturalization.
4. If a child born to German parents acquires another citizenship at birth (e.g., based on place of birth [birth in jus-soli countries mostly of the Americas], or descent from one parent [one German parent and one foreign parent]).
5. Children born on or after 1 January 2000 to non-German parents acquire German citizenship at birth if at least one parent has a permanent residence permit (and had this status for at least three years) and the parent was residing in Germany for at least eight years. The children must have lived in Germany for at least eight years or attended school for six years until their 21st birthday. Non-EU- and non-Swiss-citizen parents born and grown up abroad usually cannot have dual citizenship themselves (but see Point 1).

I know several American, Ex-Soviet block and African "germans" (including family members - admittedly they had birth-rights) who had no issues with having to hand anything up/ over when getting their german citizenship.
I guess the german authorities just don't follow it up due to the "humiliating" clause, which sounds well vague.

 

[8ball]

I would think there's a technical problem with any vote that has more than two options - if the winner comes out with less than 50 per cent but it is at one or other 'extreme' along whichever line there is, such as hard, soft or no brexit, then that isn't really a mandate to do that thing.

Well, there is always the "spoiled vote / stay at home" option in any case.

 

[pocketscience]

What's stopping the EU from handing out (real) EU passports: i.e ones that aren't printed & distributed by a nation state but the EU itself in Brussels - where a holder would be a proto European of full integration?

 

[Chz]

I would think there's a technical problem with any vote that has more than two options - if the winner comes out with less than 50 per cent but it is at one or other 'extreme' along whichever line there is, such as hard, soft or no brexit, then that isn't really a mandate to do that thing.

Normally the answer is a run-off with the top two responses if nothing garnered > 50% of the vote.

 

[Crispy]

Q1: Deal?

Deal.
No Deal.

Q2: If Deal wins, which deal?

Norway.
Canada.

Q3: If Norway wins, do you mean it?

Yeah.
Nah fuck it, Remain.

 

[Wilf]

Q1: Deal?

Deal.
No Deal.

Q2: If Deal wins, which deal?

Norway.
Canada.

Q3: If Norway wins, do you mean it?

Yeah.
Nah fuck it, Remain.

It does re-emphasise what a tremendous fuck up the whole thing has been, from Cameron failing to build in any kind of clarity on how the final terms would be agreed, to the Tories fucking everything up in the negotiations (to the point where it's not even clear whether 'chequers' still exists), to Labour having no way of relating the leadership to what the members/unions wanted... only thing that's clear is we won't be in the EU... at some point.. under some kind of conditions.

 

[8ball]

...only thing that's clear is we won't be in the EU... at some point.. under some kind of conditions.

I don't think even that is clear.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't think even that is clear.

I agree. Nothing at all is clear at the moment and it can't be until someone changes their 'red lines' over acceptable terms. I would have thought a sensible approach to brexit, even for those who want the UK to eventually separate entirely, would be an initial 'Norway-style' deal that leaves most structures in place, with some kind of outline of an option for further separation at a later date. Given the complexities of 40-plus years of harmonisation (and also given that just under half the country doesn't want brexit to happen at all), I would have thought that anything else is just foolish (and undemocratic) - certainly stampeding towards an arbitrary cut-off date without any agreed idea of what target you're even supposed to be aiming at, which is what the current stated strategy still amounts to six months off and counting, is absurd. It's currently a case of how long the absurd strategy can continue running on air, wile coyote style, before it realises where it is and plummets to the ground. Then what? Who knows?

 

[MickiQ]

o

What happens if you renounce your UK citizenship for a Spainish citizenship and the Spainish reject your application?
Even if they accept the application, for the waiting period you'd be stateless no?

I believe you can't renounce your British citizenship until your application for a foreign one has been accepted, ISIS is a very special case, the government originally wanted to strip all UK based ISIS fighters of UK citizenship but is only able to strip those with dual citizenship (mostly Pakistani I believe). UK citizens born here it can't and has to accept them back from being deported.
As a general rule of thumb Germany allows dual nationality if both German and the other are acquired by birth (would cover children of a US soldier and a German spouse) but if you choose to be German you give up the other unless you're from the EU or one of the 'special' cases. A few other EU countries are the same especially Austria and the Netherlands though the Dutch government has comitted to change this. Most EU countries allow dual cittizenship though. As things stand now a UK citizen can go and work in Germany and apply for German citizenship and keep his UK one. Post-Brexit he (and I actually know someone in this position) would have to give up one or the other unless Germany (not the UK) changes its laws accordingly.

 

[Wilf]

I don't think even that is clear.

I agree that nothing is clear, but so many things would have to line up in the same direction for there to be another in/out referendum that I think we will leave. There's a lot of political economy that can and should be hurled at brexit, but the question of whether there is a 2nd full ref is coming down to narrow political self interest. Corbyn could push it, but almost certainly won't, at least with any enthusiasm. May could deliver it but certainly won't as it would split the Tory party.

 

[MickiQ]

not sure that's particularly humiliating

I suspect Eritrean prisons make Pontins look like a holiday camp

 

[Pickman's model]

I suspect Eritrean prisons make Pontins look like a holiday camp

yeh but i suspect eritrean prisons look nicer the further you're away from them and someone renouncing their eritrean citizenship while in somewhere like italy or even ethiopia might enjoy the view from such a distance.

 

[Idris2002]

yeh but i suspect eritrean prisons look nicer the further you're away from them and someone renouncing their eritrean citizenship while in somewhere like italy or even ethiopia might enjoy the view from such a distance.

No. The present peace deal between Eritrea and Ethiopia is almost certainly going to lead to "send 'em back" where Eritrean refugees are concerned, but believe you me, those refugees are not viewing the old country through rose-tinted glasses. A big factor is the generational split between the present wave of Eritrean refugees, and the older folk who came over during the liberation war of 1961 - 1991. The latter group are still loyal to the present Eritrean government. . . the younger generation are almost invariably not.

 

[Pickman's model]

No. The present peace deal between Eritrea and Ethiopia is almost certainly going to lead to "send 'em back" where Eritrean refugees are concerned, but believe you me, those refugees are not viewing the old country through rose-tinted glasses. A big factor is the generational split between the present wave of Eritrean refugees, and the older folk who came over during the liberation war of 1961 - 1991. The latter group are still loyal to the present Eritrean government. . . the younger generation are almost invariably not.

i'm by no means saying people view eritrea through rose-tinted spectacles but i am saying that the further away from an eritrean prison, and consequently with a diminished chance of ending up in one, the walls of the prison take on a less appalling hue.

 

[andysays]

I would think there's a technical problem with any vote that has more than two options - if the winner comes out with less than 50 per cent but it is at one or other 'extreme' along whichever line there is, such as hard, soft or no brexit, then that isn't really a mandate to do that thing.

What does that have to do with McDonnell's suggestion?

 

[MickiQ]

What's stopping the EU from handing out (real) EU passports: i.e ones that aren't printed & distributed by a nation state but the EU itself in Brussels - where a holder would be a proto European of full integration?

The EU isn't a state, it doesn't have any territory under its exclusive control so the holder of such a passport would have to live in a member state thus making themselves subject to that countries rules

 

[SpackleFrog]

Any thoughts on McDonnell's "vote on the deal, but not include an option to remain" gambit?

I'm undecided.

I quite like that to be honest - I mean repeating the same referendum again will be disastrous for a multitude of reasons not least reducing the likelihood of a Labour government. But we had a referendum (which we all agree was mad, not really #ProperDemocracy and didn't really tell us what people wanted). Saying that the Tories have to come up with something that matches what people wanted, offering people the chance to say "nah this is rubbish try again" and then presumably have an election where both parties explain how they will deal with the referendum has a certain appeal.

Having said that, if that is what happens Labour would have to be clear about what they would do differently so I hope McDonnell has an answer ready. Despite the motion at LP conference, I don't think arguing for full participation in the Single Market is likely to play well in a GE.

 

[8ball]

Despite the motion at LP conference, I don't think arguing for full participation in the Single Market is likely to play well in a GE.

Which is another bizarre thing, at least going by my own estimation of how many leavers I expect had the single market at the forefront of their mind when voting.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Which is another bizarre thing, at least going by my own estimation of how many leavers I expect had the single market at the forefront of their mind when voting.

How many leavers do you think had the single market at the forefront of their mind when voting?

 

[8ball]

How many leavers do you think had the single market at the forefront of their mind when voting?

I mean, it's a rough estimate, but it could have been anything up to 12.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Which is another bizarre thing, at least going by my own estimation of how many leavers I expect had the single market at the forefront of their mind when voting.

'Continued access to the single market alongside freedom for the UK to strike bilateral trade deals with countries outside the EU'

That was the cry.

 

[8ball]

'Continued access to the single market alongside freedom for the UK to strike bilateral trade deals with countries outside the EU'

That was the cry.

"... and the freedom to have bendy bananas".

 

[Mr Moose]

How many leavers do you think had the single market at the forefront of their mind when voting?

But few of them really had leaving it at the forefront either, because they were told continued access to it would be ‘easy’.

 

[8ball]

But few of them really had leaving it at the forefront either, because they were told continued access to it would be ‘easy’.

I never accessed the thing before, so I don't see why anyone's worrying about it now!

 

[gosub]

What's stopping the EU from handing out (real) EU passports: i.e ones that aren't printed & distributed by a nation state but the EU itself in Brussels - where a holder would be a proto European of full integration?

Biggest heach rEU thinks it faces is Med migration issue (what the majority of the discussion in Salzburg was actually about) .. States away from the Med would be wary of those passports being issued in say Italy or Greece to get them out of there.


Last NGO shop operating in the Med got de flagged today