Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Chz]

Edit: Nah.

 

[Pickman's model]

Edit: Nah.

 

[Mr Moose]

McCluskey gets it...

He said:

The referendum shouldn’t be on do ‘we want to go back into the European Union’.

So staying in the EU shouldn’t even be an option, he was asked. McCluskey replied:

No, because the people have already decided on that. We very rarely have referendums in this country. The people have decided, against my wishes and my union’s wishes, but they’ve decided ...

Here’s one of the problems Labour have; there are significant numbers of traditional Labour supporters who are saying we’re going to vote Conservative because we don’t trust Labour to take us out of the European Union despite the fact that Jeremy has said repeatedly, ‘Of course we recognise the result of course we respect the result, we’re coming out of the European Union.’ For us to now enter some kind of campaign that opens up that issue again I think would be wrong.
​

It doesn’t really answer the dilemma tho. If Len thinks Brexit will cost jobs and cause suffering to the membership ultimately there is a choice between principles. It’s the nub of this whole shebang.

 

[brogdale]

It doesn’t really answer the dilemma tho. If Len thinks Brexit will cost jobs and cause suffering to the membership ultimately there is a choice between principles. It’s the nub of this whole shebang.

Which particular/ whose dilemma is that you’re referring to?

 

[gosub]

It doesn’t really answer the dilemma tho. If Len thinks Brexit will cost jobs and cause suffering to the membership ultimately there is a choice between principles. It’s the nub of this whole shebang.

Its a step forward - vast majority of the Unions came out for remain, without that statement its more of the what part of democracy don't you get?

 

[not-bono-ever]

mainly macro: Theresa May has qualities, but negotiation skill is not one of them

This blog can be a good read. If you cannot be arsed, here is a summary of the link - May is a fucking imbecile

 

[Kaka Tim]

mainly macro: Theresa May has qualities, but negotiation skill is not one of them

This blog can be a good read. If you cannot be arsed, here is a summary of the link - May is a fucking imbecile

“May didn’t do negotiation; in the words of Eric Pickles, one of her cabinet colleagues, she is not a ‘transactional’ politician. She takes a position and then she sticks to it, seeing it as a matter of principle that she delivers on what she has committed to. This doesn’t mean that she is a conviction politician. Often she arrives at a position reluctantly after much agonising – as home secretary she became notorious for being painfully slow to decide on matters over which she had personal authority. Many of the positions she adopts are ones she has inherited, seeing no option but to make good on other people’s promises. This has frequently brought her into conflict with the politicians from whom she inherited these commitments. By making fixed what her colleagues regarded as lines in the sand, she drove some of them mad.”

im not an expert - but doesn't that suggest some kind of aspergers type behaviour? the literalism, unable to deal with ambiguity and nuance and rigidity of thinking - its been said about her before.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Her background is adminstration - middle mangement at the BoE iirc- not somehere where there is much need to come up with ideas, just to implement and monitor.

 

[brogdale]

im not an expert - but doesn't that suggest some kind of aspergers type behaviour? the literalism, unable to deal with ambiguity and nuance and rigidity of thinking - its been said about her before.

Once saw an interview with May’s friend Alicia Collinson (spouse to Damian ‘left-hand typing’ Green) who described her student time with May at Auuuksfud and related how, as a Geogo under-grad the young wheat-field runner thoroughly enjoyed collecting and graphing rainfall data.

Now when my eldest was in top year at primary she enjoyed that; May is a bit limited IMO.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Once saw an interview with May’s friend Alicia Collinson (spouse to Damian ‘left-hand typing’ Green) who described her student time with May at Auuuksfud and related how, as a Geogo under-grad the young wheat-field runner thoroughly enjoyed collecting and graphing rainfall data.

Now when my eldest was in top year at primary she enjoyed that; May is a bit limited IMO.

made me think of this -

 

[Winot]

I find myself this morning in the unusual position of agreeing with not only Corbyn but also McCluskey.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Once saw an interview with May’s friend Alicia Collinson (spouse to Damian ‘left-hand typing’ Green) who described her student time with May at Auuuksfud and related how, as a Geogo under-grad the young wheat-field runner thoroughly enjoyed collecting and graphing rainfall data.

Now when my eldest was in top year at primary she enjoyed that; May is a bit limited IMO.

physical geographers are often like that

 

[Mr Moose]

Which particular/ whose dilemma is that you’re referring to?

Sorry, I don’t mean to Remain, but a choice between a Brexit of a hard or soft variety, the latter which may not be much of one.

 

[brogdale]

Sorry, I don’t mean to Remain, but a choice between a Brexit of a hard or soft variety, the latter which may not be much of one.

But McCluskey’s point is that it should be for the electorate to make that decision to ‘cut & run’ or send the Govt. back until they can strike a deal or go to the country.

 

[Wilf]

Somewhere on this thread, I used the line that there wouldn't be a 2nd ref because it wasn't in the immediate political self interest of any party to take the risk of calling/pushing for one. I don't think Labour at that point yet, may well never actively pursue it, but it's at least coming into focus. At that level of venal/political calculation they (Corbyn, McDonnell) are concerned about alienating core Labour voters and/or being seen to be part of an establishment stitch up (even in just calling for a 2nd ref on terms of departure only). Corbyn's line seems to be 'we went a gen election on the final terms... and if not, may call for a 2nd ref'. Suppose the key point after the conference is whether that becomes an active aggressive strategy. In particular, whether they are load up the amendments in the final parliamentary vote with those outcomes in mind.

My guess though is that ultimately, Labour (+nats, libs etc) just won't have the numbers. Ultimately, there will be a fudged deal with the EU and a fudged deal between May and swivel eyed lot.

 

[NoXion]

So what is happening is not really forced privatisation, but greater competition in some (but not all) former areas of state monopoly.

Is this necessarily a bad thing? If the services being offered by the new competitors are crap / too expensive, how come the public-owned company is losing market share?

Yes it is a bad thing, it's the thin end of the fucking wedge. Once competition is allowed that opens up the possibility of shitty spiv companies suing the government, because they can't compete with bodies that actually have to provide a service rather than ripping off the little guy.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Yes it is a bad thing, it's the thin end of the fucking wedge.

also, companies will often put 'loss leader' bids in the first time something is open to competition, accepting a loss first time round, knowing that if the public sector provider disappears, they can firstly name their own price for any changes / additions in the course of the first contract, and then the prices can be higher second time round.

although that won't stop them trying to cut costs (i.e. provide as little service as they can get away with, and put more pressure on staff to do more work with less equipment for less money)

the public sector provider - if allowed to bid - is often stitched up by a requirement to bid based on accounting that means it stands little chance of winning.

 

[toblerone3]

My guess though is that ultimately, Labour (+nats, libs etc) just won't have the numbers. Ultimately, there will be a fudged deal with the EU and a fudged deal between May and swivel eyed lot.

...and a fudge on the Northern Ireland border. Na there isn't enough fudge for all of that.

 

[Kaka Tim]

i cant see a deal happening - in fact both remainers and leavers may see it in their interests to end up with "no deal" - the leavers because at the very least it allows them to be ideologically pure and the remainers because it makes the pressure for a 2nd ref and/or a suspension of A50 all the greater. Also nobody wants any remotely plausible deal because it will be demonstrably worse than what the UK has already.

 

[Wolveryeti]

All sorts of ways of loading the dice against the public sector. Private providers may provide a more limited service, or use staff trained by the public sector, or use publically-owned infrastructure without paying for it, or use lower paid staff with less training and poorer conditions. The prison service is a good example of the latter, notice how the public sector still has to come in and clean up every time they fail.

But bids can be assessed on cost and quality... The IFG's report on competition in prisons is a bit more nuanced than your take - plenty of evidence that the public sector can (and has) outbid the private on cost and quality terms on prison management contracts: Competition in prisons

And irrespective of whether it is a slippery slope, good/bad idea - the EU didn't hold a gun to our heads and make us marketise prison provision. Our politicians did it willingly, out of choice.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

The refusal to use firearms in these matters has been duly noted, again. The language, flow, and poetry gods also suggest holding back on the use of the word FUDGE for the next 7 days, cheers.

 

[Favelado]

It's so much fun sitting here in Europe waiting to find out if I'll have to renounce my nationality or not. Brilliant.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

It's so much fun sitting here in Europe waiting to find out if I'll have to renounce my nationality or not. Brilliant.

You won’t.

Cheers!

 

[Favelado]

You won’t.

Cheers!

I could end up losing my right to unemployment benefit here, which I need every summer. I will probably lose my right to move around Europe to live and work. Spain will not let me have dual nationality, so I'd have to renounce British passport. Why would I have a post-Brexit British passport if I could have a useful one?

So, I probably will.

Cheers!

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Why would I have a post-Brexit British passport if I could have a useful one?

you don't want a blue passport?

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I could end up losing my right to unemployment benefit here, which I need every summer. I will probably lose my right to move around Europe to live and work. Spain will not let me have dual nationality, so I'd have to renounce British passport. Why would I have a post-Brexit British passport if I could have a useful one?

So, I probably will.

Cheers!

Get whatever passport you need, but the suggestion you must renounce your nationality in order to do so can only make things worse for the non-European immigrants that want to live here, why the fuck should it be about renouncing anything?

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

you don't want a blue passport?

I don’t care what colour the passport is it’s just bloody admin at the end of the day.

 

[Favelado]

Get whatever passport you need, but the suggestion you must renounce your nationality in order to do so can only make things worse for the non-European immigrants that want to live here, why the fuck should it be about renouncing anything?

It may not be the case for many. It is the case for Britons in Spain.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

It may not be the case for many. It is the case for Britons in Spain.

Just pretend to renounce it for the paperwork or whatever. I still call myself Scottish with a British passport, there’s harder cheeses to deal with.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Just pretend to renounce it for the paperwork or whatever. I still call myself Scottish with a British passport, there’s harder cheeses to deal with.