Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Sprocket.]

A tory promise is worth less than the steam off my piss.

Well said Archbishop!

 

[pocketscience]

Dunno - ask Network Rail. Or La Poste. Or Deutsche Bahn.

DB is operating in a franchised market and their "market share" is being eradicated. The gov were about to float the company and only stopped because of the GFC. It's a slow death. .
I have no idea about La Poste.. but guess it's similar...
eta: I googled it - here's what wiki says in the first paragraph:

However, because of EU directives requiring member states to introduce competition in their postal service, the French government allowed private postal service companies in 2005 and transformed La Poste into a public-owned company limited by shares in 2010.

See a pattern here?

 

[Rob Ray]

Tbh I think Wolveryeti would struggle to see patterns in a tartan shop.

 

[Wolveryeti]

I was arguing that EU legal measures are initiating privatisations in the NHS (and Royal Mail, and British Rail, both of which you ignored presumably because they don't really fit your arguments that well). Which they were and still are. It was you who suggested that I meant the "NHS was privatised".

Do you not think it undermines your theory that all this privatisation is EU-driven that some member states still have state owned utilities after all these years? Indeed, for utilities like water it is the overwhelming norm across Europe.

 

[Wolveryeti]

DB is operating in a franchised market and their "market share" is being eradicated. The gov were about to float the company and only stopped because of the GFC. It's a slow death. .
I have no idea about La Poste.. but guess it's similar...
eta: I googled it - here's what wiki says in the first paragraph:

See a pattern here?

So what is happening is not really forced privatisation, but greater competition in some (but not all) former areas of state monopoly.

Is this necessarily a bad thing? If the services being offered by the new competitors are crap / too expensive, how come the public-owned company is losing market share?

 

[pocketscience]

Do you not think it undermines your theory that all this privatisation is EU-driven that some member states still have state owned utilities after all these years? Indeed, for utilities like water it is the overwhelming norm across Europe.

Seen another way, your opinion that nationalised monopolies can exist in the EU contrary to the principles of the EU, somewhat undermines the whole EU negotiating strategy against the UK in the brexit process, that their principles cannot be negotiated.

So, by remaining in the EU, you reckon the principle of free, liberalised markets with open competition should simply be ignored, right?

 

[Pickman's model]

To the most hair-splitting of pedants, maybe. The service is provided by the public sector.

Yeh right

Nationalisation - the transfer of a major branch of industry or commerce from private to state ownership

The Paris water supply, is that a major branch of industry or commerce? And from what you say it's controlled by local and not central govt...

 

[pocketscience]

If I'm understanding this right, after paying this institution Billions to deploy its thousands of bureaucrats to set certain principles into law, the UK should ignore said laws if it were to remain. Yet, if the UK don't like the idea of that kind of set-up and chooses to leave then it can't just expect to negotiate a relationship that might not entirely conform to the EUs principles.

 

[pocketscience]

So what is happening is not really forced privatisation, but greater competition in some (but not all) former areas of state monopoly.

Not forced? Maybe just coerced then?
Have look at this
after all that, the gfc arived and those german schysters fucked off from the company sharpish. The greek gov stepped in to save jobs with some aid then in 2016, as Greece was on its knees bleeding to death, what did the EU do?
gave them a good kicking obviously

The Commission has decided to refer Greece to the European Court of Justice because it failed to comply with a 2008 Commission decision ordering the recovery of unlawful aid to Hellenic Shipyards. This follows a 2012 ruling by the Court condemning Greece for its failure to implement the decision.

More than seven years after its adoption, Greece still has not implemented the Commission decision of June 2008, ordering the recovery of over €250 million of unlawful state aid to Hellenic Shipyards. The Commission has now requested the Court of Justice to impose on Greece a lump sum penalty of about €6 million. The Commission has also requested that the Court impose a daily penalty of €34,974 from the day of its judgment until the date Greece brings the infringement to an end. The implementation of the 2008 decision will remove the unfair advantage received by Hellenic Shipyards, in breach of EU state aid rules, and aims to restore the level playing field in the market.

Tyssen Krupp must have pissed themselves laughing - just at the time when Schaeuble enforcably handed over all the state-run greek shipping and Airports to Fraport - a privatly run german company

Is this necessarily a bad thing? If the services being offered by the new competitors are crap / too expensive, how come the public-owned company is losing market share?

Think about the above case and decide for yourself.

 

[Rob Ray]

Do you not think it undermines your theory that all this privatisation is EU-driven that some member states still have state owned utilities after all these years? Indeed, for utilities like water it is the overwhelming norm across Europe.

Not really no. In the same way as I don't think that the existence of continuing pockets of feudalism undermine the reality of capitalism as an economic hegemony, or the existence of remnants of the post-war consensus undermine the tightening grip of the post-Reagan consensus.

 

[paolo]

For rail at least, the EU fourth railway package dictates that operation must be open to tender. Publicly owned companies can bid. It’s not forced privatisation, but it does force the possibility.

 

[Wolveryeti]

Seen another way, your opinion that nationalised monopolies can exist in the EU contrary to the principles of the EU, somewhat undermines the whole EU negotiating strategy against the UK in the brexit process, that their principles cannot be negotiated.

So, by remaining in the EU, you reckon the principle of free, liberalised markets with open competition should simply be ignored, right?

No - you are twisting what I said. EU law is about freedom to compete where there are contestable markets. The whole lexit 'freedom to nationalise' thing was I thought to do with nationalising the utilities - which are in large part natural monopolies, where the state aid provisions do not apply (there is largely no contestability).

If you are arguing that EU law is meant to prevent governments setting up state monopolies in contestable sectors and using their legislative and financial power to prevent any competition to those, then yeh - I agreee - it is set up to do that (albeit with get out clauses and challengeability). But it isn't at all obvious to me that it would impede Labour's manifesto commitment to renationalisation - which is what was originally argued earlier in the thread.

 

[Mr Moose]

This is a good example of the liberalism that has been prevalent on this thread.
The EUs long standing political opposition to publicly owned industries is reduced to a legal debate.*

Nonsense, returning control of industries to the state (or ideally the workers) doesn't have to mean paying off the thieves. Of course "Lord Fat Cunt and all the other investors" are among the the loudest voices arguing for remain, I wonder why that could be.

And we're back to "don't upset the markets", great. "Austerity" wasn't, and won't be, imposed because of a recession, it was imposed because of political choices. By (implicitly) making the attacks of capital the "natural" consequence of a crisis you are accepting liberalism.


*Even if we do restrict the debate to the legal/regularly framework it's the EU opposition to anti-marketisation is clear. They might not strictly ban nationalisation but the laws/regulation/policies are specifically designed to restrict the running of public services as public services.

I agree with a lot of what you write and respect your consistent opposition to capitalist structures. Staying within the EU or single market accepts those, that is true. My concern is that leaving esp into a recession means the acceptance, by whichever Government, of those rules or much worse with the utmost zeal.

Nationalisations, unlikely as they would be by a Government which according to ‘the rules’ is broke, and struggling to even maintain its small welfare state, would be fiercely opposed by worldwide and domestic elites. You certainly would have to pay off Lord Fat Cunt unless you think the Parliamentary Labour Party can deliver an actual revolution. At the moment it’s barely popular enough to get elected.

Given all that, the Labour Party would be just as likely to deliver nationalisations within the EEA. Let the EU, grateful to the Labour Party for avoiding a crisis, sue if it cares enough or even modify this rule for the UK as the price of stability. Plenty of member countries have restrictions on things like who can buy property. The UK is at the forefront of marketisation within it, could equally drive the reverse gear.

Of course that kind of relationship ties us to market rules, an anathema, but really, leaving sets us outside of those globally? A leap.

Anyway, I thank you for giving your views. As much as you probably consider me an utter cunt I don’t simply dismiss them.

 

[SpookyFrank]

So what is happening is not really forced privatisation, but greater competition in some (but not all) former areas of state monopoly.

Is this necessarily a bad thing? If the services being offered by the new competitors are crap / too expensive, how come the public-owned company is losing market share?

All sorts of ways of loading the dice against the public sector. Private providers may provide a more limited service, or use staff trained by the public sector, or use publically-owned infrastructure without paying for it, or use lower paid staff with less training and poorer conditions. The prison service is a good example of the latter, notice how the public sector still has to come in and clean up every time they fail.

Where the private sector still can't compete the public competitor is simply eradicated, like British Rail was, or sold off cheap like BT or indeed Royal Mail was.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Corbyn says he will accept conference decision on a 2nd ref - which sounds likely to happen. hmm - big stuff i think - Corbyn says he will accept any Labour conference decision on second Brexit referendum - Politics live

 

[butchersapron]

"What comes out of conference I will adhere to". That's it. That's not the manifesto. Don't buy the Guardian's peformative spin.

 

[SpookyFrank]

No - you are twisting what I said. EU law is about freedom to compete where there are contestable markets. The whole lexit 'freedom to nationalise' thing was I thought to do with nationalising the utilities - which are in large part natural monopolies, where the state aid provisions do not apply (there is largely no contestability).

Contestable in this context means nothing more or less than 'what the private sector wants access to'. And they want access to anything they can make money from. Next thing under the gavel is the fire service.

 

[brogdale]

"What comes out of conference I will adhere to". That's it. That's not the manifesto. Don't buy the Guardian's peformative spin.

Guardian’s reporting of Corbyn’s interview with Marr:

Corbyn says his preference is for a general election, not a second referendum. But he will see what the conference decides.

Q: Will you be bound by it?

Yes, says Corbyn.

Q: Will there be votes on a second referendum.

Corbyn says there will be clear votes. But he does not know what will come out of the compositing process.

Q: How would you vote in a referendum?

Corbyn says he does not know what the choices would be.

He voted to remain in the EU. But he wanted reform. He says no one voted to lose their job.
​

Careful triangulation in those last 7 words; talk about hedging.

 

[MickiQ]

So his position is I want X but if everybody else wants Y, I'll go along with it. That's not an unreasonable position to take. He's always said that policy is decided at conference, at least he's being consistent.

 

[Kaka Tim]

but - if they vote for it - then it goes in the manifesto? is that right?

which also presumes they would vote for it in parliament if it come to it - without a prior general election?

I take the point about guardian spin - but the closer we get to "no deal" the greater the pressure for 2nd ref - and labour will be held to that by a the political/corporate/media establishment desperate to reverse brexit as well as their own members and the unions. I cant see how they could possibly slide out of it - and would they want to if it gives them a polling boost - as well as defanging one of the main attack lines of Chuka-ites.

 

[brogdale]

So his position is I want X but if everybody else wants Y, I'll go along with it. That's not an unreasonable position to take. He's always said that policy is decided at conference, at least he's being consistent.

Not convinced of the consistency you’re seeing tbh; a committed life-long anti-EU politician who campaigned for ‘remain’ wanting ? ...but knowing his members want ‘exit-from-Brexit’ but his core vote want out.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not convinced of the consistency you’re seeing tbh; a committed life-long anti-EU politician who campaigned for ‘remain’ wanting ? ...but knowing his members want ‘exit-from-Brexit’ but his core vote want out.

Do his core vote want out? Ashcroft polling gave a figure of 62 percent people identifying as labour voters voting remain. About the same percentage as SNP voters.

There is no core in this issue. young labour supporters are strongly remain. Labour supporters in certain parts of the country are strongly leave. In others strongly remain. Given that last election it appears there was very little upturn in the dismal numbers of under 25s voting, you could argue that this remains a group corbyn could reach to turn a narrow defeat into a victory. A huge number of that particular constituency are anti-brexit

 

[Winot]

but his core vote want out.

Do you really think so? Genuine question as I don’t know the stats but doesn’t a big part of his core vote come from the “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn” millenial crowd?

 

[brogdale]

Do his core vote want out? Ashcroft polling gave a figure of 62 percent people identifying as labour voters voting remain. About the same percentage as SNP voters.

There is no core in this issue. young labour supporters are strongly remain. Labour supporters in certain parts of the country are strongly leave. In others strongly remain. Given that last election it appears there was very little upturn in the dismal numbers of under 25s voting, you could argue that this remains a group corbyn could reach to turn a narrow defeat into a victory. A huge number of that particular constituency are anti-brexit

Yeah, prob should have prefixed the term core with ‘extra-metrpolitan’, tbf.

 

[Kaka Tim]

also - how solid is the potentially pro-labour vote wrt brexit? For some nothing short of flag waving hard brexit will do - so no point going after them - they will vote tory or UKIP- for others policies on the NHS, housing and wages may be more important.

 

[brogdale]

also - how solid is the potentially pro-labour vote wrt brexit? For some nothing short of flag waving hard brexit will do - so no point going after them - they will vote tory or UKIP- for others policies on the NHS, housing and wages may be more important.

I suppose actually killing off the LibDems for good must also be quite a tempting prospect.

 

[Voley]

Do his core vote want out? Ashcroft polling gave a figure of 62 percent people identifying as labour voters voting remain. About the same percentage as SNP voters.

There is no core in this issue. young labour supporters are strongly remain. Labour supporters in certain parts of the country are strongly leave. In others strongly remain. Given that last election it appears there was very little upturn in the dismal numbers of under 25s voting, you could argue that this remains a group corbyn could reach to turn a narrow defeat into a victory. A huge number of that particular constituency are anti-brexit

Latest YouGov poll at the bottom of this article about Tom Watson is 86% pro- a public vote. Sample of 1000+ Labour members - don't know much about polling, is that enough to be representative?

Tom Watson tells Corbyn: ‘We must back members on new Brexit vote’

 

[brogdale]

Latest YouGov poll at the bottom of this article about Tom Watson is 86% pro- a public vote. Sample of 1000+ Labour members - don't know much about polling, is that enough to be representative?

Tom Watson tells Corbyn: ‘We must back members on new Brexit vote’

National Pollsters often gravitate around 1k sample; so for a membership ( population) of 500k that’s reasonable, but tells us nothing new about the ‘core’ vote.

 

[brogdale]

McCluskey gets it...

He said:

The referendum shouldn’t be on do ‘we want to go back into the European Union’.

So staying in the EU shouldn’t even be an option, he was asked. McCluskey replied:

No, because the people have already decided on that. We very rarely have referendums in this country. The people have decided, against my wishes and my union’s wishes, but they’ve decided ...

Here’s one of the problems Labour have; there are significant numbers of traditional Labour supporters who are saying we’re going to vote Conservative because we don’t trust Labour to take us out of the European Union despite the fact that Jeremy has said repeatedly, ‘Of course we recognise the result of course we respect the result, we’re coming out of the European Union.’ For us to now enter some kind of campaign that opens up that issue again I think would be wrong.
​

 

[Duncan2]

also - how solid is the potentially pro-labour vote wrt brexit? For some nothing short of flag waving hard brexit will do - so no point going after them - they will vote tory or UKIP- for others policies on the NHS, housing and wages may be more important.

It seems to me that Brogdale's extra-metropolitan core vote are likely to see the other issues i.e nhs,housing and wages as an integral part of hard Brexit.