Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[mojo pixy]

I can already see the loopholes in that plan. One word: agencies.

But if the agency has more than X (250?) staff on its books, they have to give up their 10% as well. I don't know, I like the idea so I'd tend to argue for it to some logical conclusion, given available alternatives. Certainly the CBI's response yesterday was a bit of vague bluster about discouraging investors and wages will fall. No details obvs, just the scary buzzphrases.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I can already see the loopholes in that plan. One word: agencies.

A company like BT would have trouble with that.

What I'm not sure was focused on which very much should be is bogus self-employment, needs to be totally stamped out, that would wipe out a lot of these employment agency parasites too.

 

[Mr Moose]

twitterbox is full of people screaming that brexit is the only political reality ever and whoever offers a second reff gets thier vote. Still others are insisting that without endorsing a second reff labour are fucked. A hell of a lot utterly convinced that the labour surge was down to an anti brexit vote, while the polls remain near as dammit neck and neck as they have done for ages. No change. Its almost like brexit might not be the be all and end all for some voters eh.

Labour are slightly slipping in the polls despite the Tories horror show. Why that should be isn’t clear, maybe Jezza and AS, maybe Brexit fudge.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Kier Starmer just told conference that if it comes to a 2nd ref "nobody is ruling out remain" - to wild applause. The leadership and Unite are trying to drag things back to rule out remain on any hypothetical 2nd ref - so interesting upping of the brexit ante their.

In terms of cynical politics labours position is cautious but probably quite astute - but if we get closer no deal the pressure for a 2nd ref will only increase.

If may fails to come back with a deal she has to choose between crashing out or finding some way of extending A50. The EU have said this is possible - but would probably only agree if there was going to be GE or 2nd ref. Leaving May - and the tories - with a choice of political suicides.
I seriously doubt "no deal" will happen - enough tory mps will rebel because the political pressure will be irresistible - and i would think they are more likely to go for a 2nd ref than a GE.
In that situation there is no "final deal" to vote on - and labour have probably enough political cover to go for a 2nd ref with a choice of leave and renegotiating under an A50 extension - or cancel the whole thing.

Im not sure the EU actually want a deal - even if there is one that the commons will agree to - they may very well be happy to allow a "no deal" situation to develop so as to create the political crisis which leads to brexit being abandoned and the UK - and the tories in particular - being humiliated.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Labour have been demanding an election all weekend.

Yes but they should have been doing it for months.

How does "demanding an election" actually end up in there being an election?

I feel like a fuckwit for asking, please help.

Footnote: Yes, I'd like one. How do I "demand" it?

I mean, with the fixed term parliament act, it's a bit trickier sure. But it's easy enough for Corbyn to just say every time he's interviewed "The Tories are a mess, they're not fit to govern, we need an election so that a Labour govt can fix the NHS, reverse austerity and sort out Brexit" or similar. He can add "They won't call an election because they know they'll lose but we have to have one now". I honestly don't understand why he didn't say this when David Davis resigned. Eventually May will have to respond and of course she can't say "We just had an election and the Tories won" because they didn't. If they won't call one Corbyn could call a Tories Out demo in London, which lets face it would probably be better than the last TUC "new deal" effort. The Tories would look like a joke, desperately clinging to power with the Brexit mess in the papers every day. It would be hard for them to avoid an election then, as oppose to now where there's zero pressure for one and they're surviving.

Sounds stretchy... What’s the minimum run time for a GE? I.e. what time left after to negotiate a different deal before march 29?

Or are you thinking, after a GE win, Labour then go for an extension to exit?

I mean, all this would depend on Corbyn having something to say about Brexit. But if it were me, I would say that the last 8 years show we need the Tories out, and in the event of a no deal Brexit Labour would take radical Socialist measures to protect jobs and living standards. EU can offer an extension if they want to (reckon they would) but don't beg for it, frame it as sorting out the mess the Tories made. Which is probably as good a narrative as any to justify nationalising stuff.

But hey what do I know I'm not even allowed to join the LP?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Im not sure the EU actually want a deal

They don't. Yanis Varoufakis said that from the off.

Today Barnier is in genial mood, Tusk is in a bad mood, Junker is drunk. Tomorrow Tusk will be amenable, Barnier with the hump and Junker drunk. And so on until March comes and goes...

As much as the scare stories sound scary, the choice is stay or go. The EU has been very clear that the UK cannot pick and choose which bits it wants.

The current talks are after all just the terms of our departure, not our future relationship. Makes sense to just do the off and start from there, unless we stay in that's what will happen anyway, but possibly with a hefty bill attached to it and a break up of the UK thrown in for lolz too.

 

[SpackleFrog]

At least Labour have put indyref2 to bed. No more trouble from Scotland.

So stupid. Why doesn't he go to Scotland and say "Look, I want you to stay, but you deserve the choice - try 3 years of a Socialist Labour government and then you can have another ref and I won't interfere." He'd probably get a better vote than Cameron did for staying in the UK.

He won't though cos he's a nobber.

 

[Teaboy]

So stupid. Why doesn't he go to Scotland and say "Look, I want you to stay, but you deserve the choice - try 3 years of a Socialist Labour government and then you can have another ref and I won't interfere." He'd probably get a better vote than Cameron did for staying in the UK.

He won't though cos he's a nobber.

Have you seen the state of Scottish Labour? Why would anyone want to vote for that lot?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So stupid. Why doesn't he go to Scotland and say "Look, I want you to stay, but you deserve the choice - try 3 years of a Socialist Labour government and then you can have another ref and I won't interfere." He'd probably get a better vote than Cameron did for staying in the UK.

He won't though cos he's a nobber.

Realistically, any Labour govt in the near future is only going to get into power in coalition with the SNP. Many of the things Corbyn would be seeking to implement at first would be things Scotland already has within its devolved powers, so I'm not sure what this kind of approach would be aimed at achieving.

 

[Kaka Tim]

They don't. Yanis Varoufakis said that from the off.

The current talks are after all just the terms of our departure, not our future relationship. Makes sense to just do the off and start from there, unless we stay in that's what will happen anyway, but possibly with a hefty bill attached to it and a break up of the UK thrown in for lolz too.

"Just doing the off" means no deal, WTO trade rules and hard border in norn ireland - plus loads of other hugely disruptive shit. The closer we get to that happen the louder the screaming will be from the everyone from the CBI to the trade unions to the NHS to the universities plus most of the media, you could see share price crash and stirling devaluing.
It doesn't even matter weather it will be as bad as is being made out - if becomes a self fulfilling prophecy - i wouldn't be at all surprised if there was panic buying of food and fuel and mass demonstrations. The pressure on the government will be phenomenal.
Something will have to give.

This maybe labour's calculation - dont campaign for Breverse (is that a thing yet?) - pretend to respect the referendum and blame the tories for cocking the whole thing up so spectacularly that a 2nd ref or general election) is the only way out to avoid the crunch.

The EU have already indicated that A50 can be extended if their is going to be a GE or 2nd ref - as they dont want a no deal either - and this way gives them a major political victory rather than conceding anything to the UK.

The legacy of all this is likely to quite toxic thought - simmering resentment from a big chunk of the population at the EU and the "brexit betrayers" - I guess Labour is trying to minimise how much of that sticks to them and hoping to capitalise on disaster it will bring down on the tories.

I think remainers seriously underestimate the level of swivel eyed hatred a large number of people have for the EU - and i dont think its likely that labour will escape their ire whatever political dancing they do around the issue.

 

[Pickman's model]

"Just doing the off" means no deal, WTO trade rules and hard border in norn ireland - plus loads of other hugely disruptive shit. The closer we get to that happen the louder the screaming will be from the everyone from the CBI to the trade unions to the NHS to the universities plus most of the media, you could see share price crash and stirling devaluing.
It doesn't even matter weather it will be as bad as is being made out - if becomes a self fulfilling prophecy - i wouldn't be at all surprised if there was panic buying of food and fuel and mass demonstrations. The pressure on the government will be phenomenal.
Something will have to give.

This maybe labour's calculation - dont campaign for Breverse (is that a thing yet?) - pretend to respect the referendum and blame the tories for cocking the whole thing up so spectacularly that a 2nd ref or general election) is the only way out to avoid the crunch.

The EU have already indicated that A50 can be extended if their is going to be a GE or 2nd ref - as they dont want a no deal either - and this way gives them a major political victory rather than conceding anything to the UK.

The legacy of all this is likely to quite toxic thought - simmering resentment from a big chunk of the population at the EU and the "brexit betrayers" - I guess Labour is trying to minimise how much of that sticks to them and hoping to capitalise on disaster it will bring down on the tories.

I think remainers seriously underestimate the level of swivel eyed hatred a large number of people have for the EU - and i dont think its likely that labour will escape their ire whatever political dancing they do around the issue.

as has been said above there is no happy way out of this

 

[Pickman's model]

Realistically, any Labour govt in the near future is only going to get into power in coalition with the SNP. Many of the things Corbyn would be seeking to implement at first would be things Scotland already has within its devolved powers, so I'm not sure what this kind of approach would be aimed at achieving.

quoted for posterity

 

[Poi E]

Many of the things Corbyn would be seeking to implement at first would be things Scotland already has within its devolved powers

Such as?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Such as?

Such as education and social care.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Have you seen the state of Scottish Labour? Why would anyone want to vote for that lot?

Good time to sort it out then innit? What can they say - leave us alone we're doing so well as an electoral force?

 

[SpackleFrog]

Realistically, any Labour govt in the near future is only going to get into power in coalition with the SNP. Many of the things Corbyn would be seeking to implement at first would be things Scotland already has within its devolved powers, so I'm not sure what this kind of approach would be aimed at achieving.

SNP aren't offering that could even vaguely be described as Socialist. You're revealing a lack of ambition comrade.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think remainers seriously underestimate the level of swivel eyed hatred a large number of people have for the EU

What's with the swivel eyed? I hate the EU and my mam says I've got lovely eyes.

 

[DexterTCN]

SNP aren't offering that could even vaguely be described as Socialist. You're revealing a lack of ambition comrade.

And you're revealing a lack of knowledge. You may want to check on that.

 

[Kaka Tim]

What's with the swivel eyed? I hate the EU and my mam says I've got lovely eyes.

Im sure your eyes dont swivel very much at all - but in the readers comments section of any non-guardian newspaper - "were leaving - end of" "remainers = traitors" "we're britain - the eu can fuck off" + shed loads of barely disguised racism is the pretty much the overwhelming tone. I dont agree the lexit views here - but those arguments are actually based on facts on logic - these are people who are fuelled by what seems like unrelenting rage and and are not up discussing anything.

 

[MickiQ]

I can already see the loopholes in that plan. One word: agencies.

There's a much better loophole which the Govt can't close which is foreign ownership, since it obviously can't impose these rules on non-British companies where the shares are held abroad, expect to see companies moving their HQ's and their stock market listing abroad.
It's going to have a similar problem when it comes to renationalising things like water and energy, a lot of these companies are foreign and may very well fight it in both their home country courts as well as the UK ones (or the ECJ depending on the Brexit deal) It can still be done but it will take longer and cost a lot more.

 

[SpackleFrog]

And you're revealing a lack of knowledge. You may want to check on that.

Please do enlighten me

 

[MickiQ]

Im sure your eyes dont swivel very much at all - but in the readers comments section of any non-guardian newspaper - "were leaving - end of" "remainers = traitors" "we're britain - the eu can fuck off" + shed loads of barely disguised racism is the pretty much the overwhelming tone. I dont agree the lexit views here - but those arguments are actually based on facts on logic - these are people who are fuelled by what seems like unrelenting rage and and are not up discussing anything.

You really need to stop reading the Express or Mail readers comments, it reveals the very worse side of the human race and it is very depressing.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Im sure your eyes dont swivel very much at all - but in the readers comments section of any non-guardian newspaper - "were leaving - end of" "remainers = traitors" "we're britain - the eu can fuck off" + shed loads of barely disguised racism is the pretty much the overwhelming tone. I dont agree the lexit views here - but those arguments are actually based on facts on logic - these are people who are fuelled by what seems like unrelenting rage and and are not up discussing anything.

I mean I do logic and facts but I hope my unrelenting rage is not in question?

 

[SpackleFrog]

There's a much better loophole which the Govt can't close which is foreign ownership, since it obviously can't impose these rules on non-British companies where the shares are held abroad, expect to see companies moving their HQ's and their stock market listing abroad.
It's going to have a similar problem when it comes to renationalising things like water and energy, a lot of these companies are foreign and may very well fight it in both their home country courts as well as the UK ones (or the ECJ depending on the Brexit deal) It can still be done but it will take longer and cost a lot more.

I think the original point was that this policy would conflict with Single Market membership.

 

[andysays]

There's a much better loophole which the Govt can't close which is foreign ownership, since it obviously can't impose these rules on non-British companies where the shares are held abroad, expect to see companies moving their HQ's and their stock market listing abroad.
It's going to have a similar problem when it comes to renationalising things like water and energy, a lot of these companies are foreign and may very well fight it in both their home country courts as well as the UK ones (or the ECJ depending on the Brexit deal) It can still be done but it will take longer and cost a lot more.

British employment law applys in all cases where people are employed in Britain, regardless of the ultimate 'nationality' of the employing company

 

[MickiQ]

British employment law apply to all cases where people are employed in Britain, regardless of the ultimate 'nationality' of the employing company

Employment and criminal law yes, corporate law no, the British government can't change the legal structure of an American company, McDonnell knows this which is why he said British companies in his speech.
There is no way that a Labour Govt is going to be able to force Amazon whose shares are traded on the New York stock exchange to put 1% of them a year in a fund to benefit UK workers.

 

[Kaka Tim]

You really need to stop reading the Express or Mail readers comments, it reveals the very worse side of the human race and it is very depressing.

try the yorkshire evening post or any local newspaper outside of london. or bbc comments. or talk radio. or quite a few people ive met IRL. They are not a majority - but its not a fringe view at all.

 

[Chz]

You really need to stop reading the Express or Mail readers comments, it reveals the very worse side of the human race and it is very depressing.

Given that the paper itself is generally well-written, the state of the Telegraph's comments section is really quite astounding. Barely literate lunatics, for the most part. Or at least it was that way the last time I looked a few years back. I can't imagine it's actually improved.

 

[SpackleFrog]

try the yorkshire evening post or any local newspaper outside of london. or bbc comments. or talk radio. or quite a few people ive met IRL. They are not a majority - but its not a fringe view at all.

It's worth bearing in mind that for a long time UKIP staffers have targeted comments sections in the press. Or at least this is what a journalist friend tells me - she claimed that sometimes 80% of comments on a story would be from the same group of IP addresses which matched with people sending out UKIP press statements.

 

[DexterTCN]

Please do enlighten me

Check for yourself.

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