Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[HoratioCuthbert]

I would see it as part of an overall strategy...and trying to lead and shape sentiment rather than just following it (i.e. Ed Miliband mugs..)

I see that, could you explain even just briefly how remaining in the EU would help-let’s get all the bells on here for a minute- a socialist Corbyn govt to strengthen labour rights? Would it help? Would it make no difference either way? Outline how...etc.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

More tables here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf

I mean I presumed the poll had a good cross section of the population, otherwise the whole thing is worthless, right?

48 per cent of leave voters think multiculturalism is a force for ill.
For anyone who can’t be arsed counting!

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I’m not sure good vs evil tables help. I think the answer to these numbers is to argue in favour of immigration but I would do things the other way about to how the left normally does it. The right to find employment and affordable housing where you live should be central, not an afterthought to a “stop being so racist” stance, then work pro immigration in from there. Would you Horatio, what have you done? Fuck all really, sorry, I waved refugee welcome banners around basically!
But I fail to see why any of that would necessarily involve stopping Brexit. I would think stopping Brexit would worsen the situation
Plus last two years I’ve seen many of our plucky non racists push some pretty heinous stuff. Prejudice, just their own brand of it. WHO EVEN ARE THE GOODIES

 

[redsquirrel]

I mean I presumed the poll had a good cross section of the population, otherwise the whole thing is worthless, right?

That doesn't address kabbes point.

 

[kabbes]

48 per cent of leave voters think multiculturalism is a force for ill.
For anyone who can’t be arsed counting!

Thanks, because I couldn’t be arsed counting.

So for at least 52% of Brexit voters, a reason other than “don’t like multiculturalism” needs to be found for their vote. For the other 48%, it may or may not have played a part in their vote — the survey doesn’t ask that question to find out.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

We also don’t know how many happen to be big fans of yer man Kenan

Multiculturalism undermines diversity | Kenan Malik

 

[Hollis]

I see that, could you explain even just briefly how remaining in the EU would help-let’s get all the bells on here for a minute- a socialist Corbyn govt to strengthen labour rights? Would it help? Would it make no difference either way? Outline how...etc.

I think my point was that Brexit is at best a red herring/distraction when it comes to these issues... of "Wanting Something Different" (per SpakleFrog's post). If you see the vote as a protest vote, then better to address the underlying issues, rather than leave the EU for dubious reasons and probable harm?

Of course, with the right govt. employment rights could be improved inside or outside Brexit. Though, as an aside, the TU movement were strongly Remain, and I believe the EU have contributed towards employment rights.

Labour/ Corbyn could be promoting improved employment rights/ housing etc a long with arguing a positive case for staying within the EU....or in politician's speak "We've heard your unhappy with XYZ, we believe the vote arose from .... We want to offer you.. this is best done while remaining part of the EU because we believe the EU offers...", (Corbyn won't...).

 

[kebabking]

If you're going to play the historical long-game, then you could also argue that the EU in its expanded form is still an infant institution, having some 'teething problems', and give it another 50/100 years...

You talk about Brexiteers being 'on the side of history' but what's the evidence for that? Some of the sentiments Brexit has evoke dont themselves have a great history..

Personally I see little evidence for a post- Brexit Britain being some force for progression. Look for example at the endless carping by the Tories on human rights..etc.

I'm not arguing that brexiteers are 'on the side of history' - I did after all vote remain, albeit reluctantly - I'm arguing that Brexit is going to have a fundamental impact on our country to a similar degree to other huge, seismic events like the 17th Century civil war, the Norman invasion, the Vikings and the end of the Heptarchy and the creation of England, and the loss of France.

Imv, Brexit should be discussed in those terms - as should non-brexit and it's consequences for democratic involvement and legitimacy, and what the EU is going to look like in 2100, not fucking about with not-even-trifles like the availability of Avacadoes and whether you'll have to queue for 3 hours to get on the ferry.

It's also worth noting that pretty much everyone who doesn't like Brexit says that the EU needs to reform - and then blithely skates over the likelihood of that happening: David Cameron tried it (regardless of what you think of his requirements) as one of the EU's most powerful members, with the EU structures knowing that a membership referendum was coming, and yet he got absolutely nowhere.

Also skated over is the issue of democratic legitimacy - what do 'remainiacs' think will happen if BREXIT gets kicked into the 'too hard' bin, do they think there will be no negative consequences of holding a referendum in which 40 million people vote and then ignoring the result? Do they have similar views about GE's, that they are consultative only and that if, for example, in 2023 Labour win a million more votes than the Tories the deep state should make a more informed decision about the desirability of a Corbyn government than the public are able to make and perhaps install a centerist government for the good of the country?

Or would their views about the sovereignty of the electorate - however inconvenient or foolish - suddenly take a more principled turn?

 

[sleaterkinney]

48 per cent of leave voters think multiculturalism is a force for ill.
For anyone who can’t be arsed counting!

I'm confused now, in Q2, Table 2 on page 8 it's 19% ?

 

[redsquirrel]

I'm confused now, in Q2, Table 2 on page 8 it's 19% ?

No it's not. This survey has been posted at least three times on U75 and every time it's been read wrong.

HoratioCuthbert is correct.
According to the survey results the % of leave voters that think multiculturalism is a force for ill = 3052/6420 *100 = 48%

 

[bimble]

I'm not arguing that brexiteers are 'on the side of history' - I did after all vote remain, albeit reluctantly - I'm arguing that Brexit is going to have a fundamental impact on our country to a similar degree to other huge, seismic events like the 17th Century civil war, the Norman invasion, the Vikings and the end of the Heptarchy and the creation of England, and the loss of France..

Why do you think its so huge as all that? (Doesn't seem to me like joining the eu in the first place had anything like that of sort impact).

 

[Wolveryeti]

Also skated over is the issue of democratic legitimacy - what do 'remainiacs' think will happen if BREXIT gets kicked into the 'too hard' bin, do they think there will be no negative consequences of holding a referendum in which 40 million people vote and then ignoring the result? Do they have similar views about GE's, that they are consultative only and that if, for example, in 2023 Labour win a million more votes than the Tories the deep state should make a more informed decision about the desirability of a Corbyn government than the public are able to make and perhaps install a centerist government for the good of the country?

Or would their views about the sovereignty of the electorate - however inconvenient or foolish - suddenly take a more principled turn?

1) The referendum was deemed advisory - not by Remainers, but by the Supreme Court. This puts it in a totally different category than, say, a GE.
2) There would be absolutely nothing wrong with having another referendum to secure consensus around which model of Brexit we choose, and nothing wrong with one option being to remain. Democracy is not taking a narrow result - influenced by breaches of electoral law, and the peddling of mendacious racist shite - and assuming a mandate for one of the most extreme models of Brexit which was not in the question wording. Democracy means being able to change your mind.
2) To Leavers who think the above is 'disrespecting the will of the people' or similar,the correct time to be heard about this was before the result, when Farage and Rees Mogg were publicly talking about having further referenda and how this one would be 'unfinished business' if it narrowly went against them.

 

[sleaterkinney]

No it's not. This survey has been posted at least three times on U75 and every time it's been read wrong.

HoratioCuthbert is correct.
According to the survey results the % of leave voters that think multiculturalism is a force for ill = 3052/6420 *100 = 48%

Ok, it's the other way around, 81% of the people who think multiculturalism is bad voted leave.

 

[teuchter]

Suppose that 5% of people think multiculturalism is a force for ill. Then this data would mean 13% of Brexit voters think it’s a force for ill and 87% mean it’s a force for good. The data looks as if it is suggesting one thing (ie Brexit voters don’t like multiculturalism) but in that case it’s actually saying the exact opposite (ie Brexit voters like multiculturalism, albeit to a small degree less than Remain voters).

Incidentally, if we go the other way and 80% of people think multiculturalism is a force for ill, that would mean more Remain voters think it is a force for ill than think it is a force for good.

It wouldn't be possible for it to come out at 80%. The most it can be is about 60%, in which case only 20% of Remainers would see it as a force for ill. And we wouldn't know if they outnumbered 'force for good' remainers without knowing how the rest of the answers were split between 'good' and 'mixed blessing'. Or have I got my maths wrong?

Anyway the real numbers as far as I can make out, from all respondents:

48% - Force for good
22% - Mixed Blessing
30% - Force for ill.

It looks like the question asked for a rating on a 1-10 scale, people who answered 5 are taken as 'mixed blessing' and the rest either 'good' or 'ill'.

 

[teuchter]

Ok, it's the other way around, 81% of the people who think multiculturalism is bad voted leave.

I think that Kabbes' point was that this doesn't tell us in absolute numbers what proportion of leave voters think multiculturalism is bad. If it was small then the significance of the 81/19 split would be diminished.

But the full figures show that 48% of leave voters think it's bad, compared to 21% of remain voters.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

tbh whatever the problems with multiculturalism we discuss on here - with analysis from the likes of Kenan Malik - I think we can be pretty confident that a large majority of those responding to that poll weren't thinking in those terms when they were asked about it, and were responding very generally to the idea of people with lots of different cultures living next to one another. Given that, I think the results are very clear-cut.

I also don't like the way the results were presented, btw. But the raw data is clear enough.

 

[danny la rouge]

Suppose that 5% of people think multiculturalism is a force for ill.

I'm late to this discussion, so forgive me if it's been posted, but did the survey include a definition of "multiculturalism" for the respondents to see before asking the questions? Because there's a range of things it could mean, so we also need to know what people were answering about.

If there was no definition given, then it's not reasonable to impose a definition after the fact. Indeed we may all be talking about different things on this thread.

 

[danny la rouge]

tbh whatever the problems with multiculturalism we discuss on here - with analysis from the likes of Kenan Malik - I think we can be pretty confident that a large majority of those responding to that poll weren't thinking in those terms when they were asked about it, and were responding very generally to the idea of people with lots of different cultures living next to one another.

Maybe not, but what were they thinking about? How do you define what you think they were thinking about?

 

[philosophical]

I'm not arguing that brexiteers are 'on the side of history' - I did after all vote remain, albeit reluctantly - I'm arguing that Brexit is going to have a fundamental impact on our country to a similar degree to other huge, seismic events like the 17th Century civil war, the Norman invasion, the Vikings and the end of the Heptarchy and the creation of England, and the loss of France.

Imv, Brexit should be discussed in those terms - as should non-brexit and it's consequences for democratic involvement and legitimacy, and what the EU is going to look like in 2100, not fucking about with not-even-trifles like the availability of Avacadoes and whether you'll have to queue for 3 hours to get on the ferry.

It's also worth noting that pretty much everyone who doesn't like Brexit says that the EU needs to reform - and then blithely skates over the likelihood of that happening: David Cameron tried it (regardless of what you think of his requirements) as one of the EU's most powerful members, with the EU structures knowing that a membership referendum was coming, and yet he got absolutely nowhere.

Also skated over is the issue of democratic legitimacy - what do 'remainiacs' think will happen if BREXIT gets kicked into the 'too hard' bin, do they think there will be no negative consequences of holding a referendum in which 40 million people vote and then ignoring the result? Do they have similar views about GE's, that they are consultative only and that if, for example, in 2023 Labour win a million more votes than the Tories the deep state should make a more informed decision about the desirability of a Corbyn government than the public are able to make and perhaps install a centerist government for the good of the country?

Or would their views about the sovereignty of the electorate - however inconvenient or foolish - suddenly take a more principled turn?

By moving the debate to pondering the historical impact, isn't that a way of skating over the immediate practical issues that are real for many, and arguably more serious than the plight of avocado?

 

[Pickman's model]

tbh whatever the problems with multiculturalism we discuss on here - with analysis from the likes of Kenan Malik - I think we can be pretty confident that a large majority of those responding to that poll weren't thinking in those terms when they were asked about it, and were responding very generally to the idea of people with lots of different cultures living next to one another. Given that, I think the results are very clear-cut.

I also don't like the way the results were presented, btw. But the raw data is clear enough.

jesus mary and joseph

the raw data is never clear. it has not been analysed. it has not been checked for biases, either conscious or unconscious. you're supposed to be intelligent. can you please show you are?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Maybe not, but what were they thinking about? How do you define what you think they were thinking about?

Well you could get a clue by comparing this result with the same question asked about immigration and seeing how each individual's response matches up. I would expect there to be a very strong match-up - those saying multiculturalism, whatever it might be, is a good thing also saying immigration is a good thing.

Out of all the questions on that poll, I would think this one is probably the most problematic but given the results down the range of topics, it's hard to deny a pattern emerging, even with caveats about vague definitions and rather misleading presentation of results.

 

[danny la rouge]

Well you could get a clue by comparing this result with the same question asked about immigration and seeing how each individual's response matches up. I would expect there to be a very strong match-up - those saying multiculturalism, whatever it might be, is a good thing also saying immigration is a good thing.

So one thing multiculturalism could mean to respondents is that it's just another way of asking about immigration levels. And whether or not the current level is a good thing.

That's not what you said in your previous post. You then said it was "the idea of people with lots of different cultures living next to one another". So even you - in successive posts - have given it two different interpretations.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So one thing multiculturalism could mean to respondents is that it's just another way of asking about immigration levels. And whether or not the current level is a good thing.

That's not what you said in your previous post. You then said it was "the idea of people with lots of different cultures living next to one another". So even you - in successive posts - have given it two different interpretations.

I think the two are interconnected in such a way that being opposed (in very general terms) to one is very likely to mean being opposed to the other. And I do think such a marked split in the responses leave/remain is significant, despite all the problems.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think the two are interconnected in such a way that being opposed (in very general terms) to one is very likely to mean being opposed to the other. And I do think such a marked split in the responses leave/remain is significant, despite all the problems.

There may be connections, but what are they?

For example, it's quite easy to imagine people who think that it's great to have lots of cultures living together, but that there's not enough room for more immigrants. Or someone who thinks it's terrible having lots of different cultures living together but more of "the right kind" of immigrant should be welcomed. And so on.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There may be connections, but what are they?

For example, it's quite easy to imagine people who think that it's great to have lots of cultures living together, but that there's not enough room for more immigrants. Or someone who thinks it's terrible having lots of different cultures living together but more of "the right kind" of immigrant should be welcomed. And so on.

Yes of course, but that's where a large sample comes in. You can't say anything in particular about any one individual in the sample, but you can say something about patterns in a large set of results.

 

[danny la rouge]

Also, how are people defining "culture"? Is it skin colour, language, religion, cuisine? If I'm black, was born in Chelsmford, speak English with an Essex accent, attend Anglican services every Sunday, and enjoy a roast beef dinner at my local pub afterwards, am I an example of "the lots of different cultures", in the view of the respondent, or not?

 

[danny la rouge]

Yes of course, but that's where a large sample comes in. You can't say anything in particular about any one individual in the sample, but you can say something about patterns in a large set of results.

It's much harder to do so if you haven't defined the terms, though.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Also, how are people defining "culture"? Is it skin colour, language, religion, cuisine? If I'm black, was born in Chelsmford, speak English with an Essex accent, attend Anglican services every Sunday, and enjoy a roast beef dinner at my local pub afterwards, am I an example of "the lots of different cultures", in the view of the respondent, or not?

I think you may be asking too much of this survey. I also don't like that question, fwiw.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think you may be asking too much of this survey. I also don't like that question, fwiw.

What I'm asking of the survey is clarity about what they're asking. Did they define the term to prompt respondents or not? That's all.

The reason they need to is the lack of clarity you have yourself displayed on what the term means. (Not a jibe: I'm with you. I don't know what the question is asking either).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

What I'm asking of the survey is clarity about what they're asking. Did they define the term to prompt respondents or not? That's all.

The reason they need to is the lack of clarity you have yourself displayed on what the term means. (Not a jibe: I'm with you. I don't know what the question is asking either).

My guess is that they almost certainly did not prompt respondents, for this or any other question. As I'm sure you also suspect, truth is that the person/people who devised the survey probably didn't think about these problems at all.