Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpackleFrog]

I'd like to hear an answer to this too. And I'd also like to hear why, if people can't answer this, they still think brexit is worth all this shit. What is brexit for?

It's split the Tory government and completely paralysed them. Was more effective at getting rid of Cameron than Ed Milliband.

Well one thing we can know quite confidently is that Greece was not a factor in the vote of the vast majority of people who voted for brexit. I would go further and wager that a majority of those who paid attention to and were disgusted by what was done to Greece by the EU voted remain.

I don't think you can know that confidently at all. I don't think it would be one of the most prominent factors for anyone except people on the radical left or people who have some personal connection to Greece. But why wouldn't it be a factor? Apart from the constant connection to immigration and refugees, the main thing that comes up in the media involving the EU is the Eurozone crisis and the austerity measures forced on the peripheral Eurozone economies. Just to be really clear, being in the EU has not brought about prosperity for Greece or Spain or Ireland post-2008. And most of the EU member states are in the Euro. What does that tell people who aren't particularly engaged in the bureaucratic machinery of a supranational neoliberal trade bloc about how it treats economically weaker members?

I was canvassing in 2016 for the local elections (for TUSC). Fruitless fucking task obviously was not a good time for talking about council cutbacks cos of the referendum. I had a really long chat with a woman (who still wouldn't tell me she would definitely vote for us even after she bought a paper) and I was fascinated by something she said to me:

"I have thought about voting Leave even though I know that's racist, but then the NHS can't cope can it? I'll probably vote Remain, cos if we leave it might make things worse. But it's not right what they're doing to them poor Greeks. The kids don't have enough food."

That's not a simple response to process. I honestly don't know which way she would have voted in the end. But there's a lot of stuff in there - yes, immigration but that's because people have been told immigration is linked to resources for decades, and that the country is broke. But also what people know or have seen and feel about the EU is in there, and since we're always told the EU has brought economic prosperity then people look at their own prosperity or lack thereof and make judgements from there. We need to recognise that if we want to understand the vote and what it means.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I'm not lumping you in with anyone. But if fewer people had been concerned about immigration, leave would have lost, whatever your reasons for voting leave were. Take out the racists, as judged conservatively at around the 5-6 percent that the BNP got at its peak, and leave doesn't get a majority. To be in a majority, those that voted leave for non-racist reasons need the racist vote to be counted with theirs.

I personally don't give much of a shit about one percentage point or two either way in a vote, but I am sick of hearing (not from you necessarily) about a majority voting leave so we should shut up about it. Well to those who say that, you need the racist vote to be in a majority. You happy to make that statement? That ought to be a non-starter of an argument.

Please, tell me how many of “the racists” I can take out of the remain vote for balance. The pro Miliband racist mug crowd? Soft Tories? How many racist points do you get for waving an EU flag?

Or maybe this argument is actually bullshit from either side, given the current circumstances.

Build that wall....

 

[SpackleFrog]

I would think poorer boroughs in places like London and Glasgow more likely to be in regular contact with a lot of lefty groups, movements etc. I would think it would just be harder to be pro leave in that environment, more kind of remain nose holding stuff. I’m just throwing that out there, I don’t know. I’m rural as fuck as I said! I did wonder if in Scotland given it’s small population it was kind of central belt leading the vote, but to be honest I haven’t counted it all up.

A lot of left groups and unions campaigned to leave.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Please, tell me how many of “the racists” I can take out of the remain vote for balance. The pro Miliband racist mug crowd? Soft Tories? How many racist points do you get for waving an EU flag?

Or maybe this argument is actually bullshit from either side, given the current circumstances.

Build that wall....

People voting leave for racist reasons ? You have a think about it - 5 percent is a pretty conservative estimate. By contrast, few people will have voted remain for racist reasons.

You try to draw equivalences where they don't exist. You know full well that racist cunts voted overwhelmingly to leave, cos they're racist cunts. The only question is how many.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

A lot of left groups and unions campaigned to leave.

I know they did, but it did seem the left was predominantly remain.
Anyway point was this whole Scotland and London less racist than rest of country is obvs shite. I’ve live in both places and half my family is from north of England. All places have their own issues with racism and London certainly doesn’t stand out as cleaner than the others really.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I'm not lumping you in with anyone. But if fewer people had been concerned about immigration, leave would have lost, whatever your reasons for voting leave were. Take out the racists, as judged conservatively at around the 5-6 percent that the BNP got at its peak, and leave doesn't get a majority. To be in a majority, those that voted leave for non-racist reasons need the racist vote to be counted with theirs.

Eh? What on earth does this mean?

I'm really sorry to break this to you mate but a lot of very bigoted people vote all the time in elections. Are you suggesting that makes the results invalid? Since to win an election you're gonna need to win over some of the bigot vote?

There were racist bigots who voted Remain to you know. There's even a couple of bizarre little fash grouplets who called for a vote to Remain if memory serves.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I know they did, but it did seem the left was predominantly leave.
Anyway point was this whole Scotland and London less racist than rest of country is obvs shite. I’ve l

More people in London are concerned about racism, though. Because it's a lived everyday reality for them.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Eh? What on earth does this mean?

I'm really sorry to break this to you mate but a lot of very bigoted people vote all the time in elections. Are you suggesting that makes the results invalid? Since to win an election you're gonna need to win over some of the bigot vote?

There were racist bigots who voted Remain to you know. There's even a couple of bizarre little fash grouplets who called for a vote to Remain if memory serves.

Yeah, little being the operative word.

I don't give much of a fuck about election results, I've already said that. I'm not a very good democrat in that sense. The bigot vote can go fuck itself.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

People voting leave for racist reasons ? You have a think about it - 5 percent is a pretty conservative estimate. By contrast, few people will have voted remain for racist reasons.

You try to draw equivalences where they don't exist. You know full well that racist cunts voted overwhelmingly to leave, cos they're racist cunts. The only question is how many.

Anything to say about the wall?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Anything to say about the wall?

So a border is being put up. I know. We'll put one up as well.

Anything to say about how brexit helps?

It's this false equivalence yet again. I fucking detest what the UK is doing in Northern Ireland. Wales must become independent!

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

We only oppose theoretical walls! Fuck it’s completely about rhetoric now. People are irrelevant. Syria, etc too. The left is misanthropic at its core.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

So a border is being put up. I know. We'll put one up as well.

Anything to say about how brexit helps?

It's this false equivalence yet again. I fucking detest what the UK is doing in Northern Ireland. Wales must become independent!

So a border is being put up.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Night night guys, I need to relax

X

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yeah, little being the operative word.

I don't give much of a fuck about election results, I've already said that. I'm not a very good democrat in that sense. The bigot vote can go fuck itself.

If you're saying you don't give a fuck what the vote was fine, but don't claim it doesn't matter cos you believe there were more bigots on the other side.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So a border is being put up.

Is the UK going to take in more refugees from the terrible situations its wars helped to create? REally, is that why we're doing brexit?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

If you're saying you don't give a fuck what the vote was fine, but don't claim it doesn't matter cos you believe there were more bigots on the other side.

I didn't say that. Be precise ffs. I said that if you are claiming a majority, you need to be welcoming the racists into your camp in order to do so.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Is the UK going to take in more refugees from the terrible situations its wars helped to create? REally, is that why we're doing brexit?

You’re talking to yourself now, probs carry on

 

[billbond]

Is the UK going to take in more refugees from the terrible situations its wars helped to create? REally, is that why we're doing brexit?

if you feel so bad about it, why not take some in yourself

 

[Raheem]

if you feel so bad about it, why not take some in yourself

Maybe because that never grows less stupid-sounding no matter how many knobheads say it.

 

[redsquirrel]

Well one thing we can know quite confidently is that Greece was not a factor in the vote of the vast majority of people who voted for brexit. I would go further and wager that a majority of those who paid attention to and were disgusted by what was done to Greece by the EU voted remain.

All the polls suggest very strongly that anti-immigration sentiment was the single most important issue in leave voting.

Do you have any evidence of any of these claims? I'd contest them all.

This matters because anyone wishing to navigate from here towards a socialist, or even a socialistish, future needs to show how they think we can get from here to there.

Why are you restricting this criteria to those that voted Leave in one referendum? Is it not to be applied to those that voted Remain? What about voters/non-voters at other elections? Indeed why should it be limited to behaviour at elections? Surely if you are being consistent you should apply it to all actions?

But what if I say that I think that the only way to socialism is via the path the working class constructs for itself (equally true whether the UK is part of the EU or not), or even that the changes to society that I would like to see can only come about through the power of the working class? Would that satisfy you? I'm guessing not.

 

[Poi E]

Violent revolution for fuck's sake. Anyone who thinks the British state can be changed by anything else is in la-la land. It's an aggressive, militaristic body armed to the teeth and experienced at killing and maiming civilian populations.

 

[hot air baboon]

Eh? What on earth does this mean?

I'm really sorry to break this to you mate but a lot of very bigoted people vote all the time in elections. Are you suggesting that makes the results invalid? Since to win an election you're gonna need to win over some of the bigot vote?

There were racist bigots who voted Remain to you know. There's even a couple of bizarre little fash grouplets who called for a vote to Remain if memory serves.

there's a letter to the Daily Telegraph from Lady Diana Mosley during the whole Maastricht Treaty upheavals with John Major cunting-off the Tory Eurosceptics for being anti-EU

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Violent revolution for fuck's sake. Anyone who thinks the British state can be changed by anything else is in la-la land. It's an aggressive, militaristic body armed to the teeth and experienced at killing and maiming civilian populations.

GO TO BED POI E, YOU’RE DRUNK

 

[Poi E]

Sorry, that was too much coffee too early this morning.

 

[kabbes]

Can you explain further?

Look at the data again:

On the other hand:

The majority of Labour voters voted remain.

Suppose that 5% of people think multiculturalism is a force for ill. Then this data would mean 13% of Brexit voters think it’s a force for ill and 87% mean it’s a force for good. The data looks as if it is suggesting one thing (ie Brexit voters don’t like multiculturalism) but in that case it’s actually saying the exact opposite (ie Brexit voters like multiculturalism, albeit to a small degree less than Remain voters).

Incidentally, if we go the other way and 80% of people think multiculturalism is a force for ill, that would mean more Remain voters think it is a force for ill than think it is a force for good.

This is the heart of Simpson’s paradox, where the full picture says something different to the surface granular result.

So what proportion of the population does actually think multiculturalism is a force for ill? How can we interpret those statistics without this? And so what agenda is served by quoting them without this key info?

Why, in short, is it being presented as “multiculturalism attitude implies voting pattern” rather than “voting pattern implies culticulturalism attitude”?

 

[sleaterkinney]

Look at the data again:



Suppose that 5% of people think multiculturalism is a force for ill. Then this data would mean 13% of Brexit voters think it’s a force for ill and 87% mean it’s a force for good. The data looks as if it is suggesting one thing (ie Brexit voters don’t like multiculturalism) but in that case it’s actually saying the exact opposite (ie Brexit voters like multiculturalism, albeit to a small degree less than Remain voters).

Incidentally, if we go the other way and 80% of people think multiculturalism is a force for ill, that would mean more Remain voters think it is a force for ill than think it is a force for good.

This is the heart of Simpson’s paradox, where the full picture says something different to the surface granular result.

So what proportion of the population does actually think multiculturalism is a force for ill? How can we interpret those statistics without this? And so what agenda is served by quoting them without this key info?

Why, in short, is it being presented as “multiculturalism attitude implies voting pattern” rather than “voting pattern implies culticulturalism attitude”?

More tables here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf

I mean I presumed the poll had a good cross section of the population, otherwise the whole thing is worthless, right?

 

[Hollis]

Thing is mate - and I understand this is difficult - the people in that video and their assessment of the practicalities of what will happen is *entirely* conditioned by their understanding of the EU and its history and their interests and worries and beliefs. And at least one of them is a horrible reactionary tool. They don't want Brexit to happen; they (unlike most of the population) care significantly more about Brexit than austerity or the NHS or the Tories or the attacks on the Windrush generation or global warming or Grenfell or whatever. Consequently their assessment of the practicalities is based on their deep aversion to Brexit and desire to stop it. You can't seperate what you term 'practicalities' from politics.



If you're talking about what all Leave voters knew they were voting for, it's not a secret at all, you just keep missing the point. They voted for Something Different To This Horrible Shit. Oh, and for Cameron to resign - we all knew we'd get that.

Sure, within that, some of them may have thought they were voting for border control or against austerity or to lock up immigrants or for a Global Britain. But there are a couple of key things everyone knew they were voting for and and they were right.

One of the problems for some Remain voters is that they haven't quite understood that Leave voters wanted Something Different, or why they did. So every contribution to the debate is along the lines of "oh but things will be so awful when things change" which gets zero echo or response because enough people have reached a point where anything different will do, nobody cares particularly, people just want to force any kind of change in society they can. Which is why people voted for Leave in huge numbers, but also for Corbyn, despite what the establishment had to say about Corbyn.

Err yes. I agree with most of that. However what you've pinpointed is the "Something different" protest element of the Brexit vote, which probably some Brexiteers don't want to acknowledge either.

What annoys me most about Brexit is that I think it's resulted from scapegoating and clever leveraging by the Leave campaign of people's fears, and I don't think its going to deliver. In some ways it's a massive distraction from things like erosion of employment rights, casualisation of labour, housing. One day post-Brexit people will wake up to the same shitty job terms..

(Which is also why I'd like to see Labour/Corbyn actively promoting remain, rather than fence sitting.)

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Err yes. I agree with most of that. However what you've pinpointed is the "Something different" protest element of the Brexit vote, which probably some Brexiteers don't want to acknowledge either.

What annoys me most about Brexit is that I think it's resulted from scapegoating and clever leveraging by the Leave campaign of people's fears, and I don't think its going to deliver. In some ways it's a massive distraction from things like erosion of employment rights, casualisation of labour, housing. One day post-Brexit people will wake up to the same shitty job terms..

(Which is also why I'd like to see Labour/Corbyn actively promoting remain, rather than fence sitting.)

How would you say Corbyn actively promoting remain helps to protect employment rights etc. Bearing in mind Corbyn’s ability to deliver his manifesto promises is somewhat dependant on Labour being in power, not the Tories?

 

[Hollis]

See, even you can begin to discern the difference between immediate and important.

If you want to see things from outside the Guardians' remainiac bubble, stop fussing about the price of Avacados and the life-ending nightmare of being delayed at the ferry port for an extra hour, and think about how Brexit will be written up in 50 or 300 years by people looking for at how it affects their lives - look at it, for good or ill, as one of the events that changes they way we are governed and how the state works - look at it in the same way as you look at the introduction of Jury Trials, or the Great Reform Act, or Magna Carta and the Provisions of Oxford 50 years later, or the Trial of Charles I and the end of Rule by Divine right - or WW1 and the rise of the Labour Movement and the Emancipation of Women.

Brexit is, or will lead to, fundamental changes in our country that will make the country my great, great grandchildren live in very different to the country they would have lived in without Brexit - again, for good or ill - what no one writing then will care about is a shortage of Spanish Strawberries or the tradegy of buying non-EU insulin during 2019.

They won't even care if no aircraft carrying holiday makers or business people were able to fly to Europe for a month.

Put yourself on the side of history and not on the side of some whining cretins who believes that their personal convenience lies at the centre of the universe.

If you're going to play the historical long-game, then you could also argue that the EU in its expanded form is still an infant institution, having some 'teething problems', and give it another 50/100 years...

You talk about Brexiteers being 'on the side of history' but what's the evidence for that? Some of the sentiments Brexit has evoke dont themselves have a great history..

Personally I see little evidence for a post- Brexit Britain being some force for progression. Look for example at the endless carping by the Tories on human rights..etc.

 

[Hollis]

How would you say Corbyn actively promoting remain helps to protect employment rights etc. Bearing in mind Corbyn’s ability to deliver his manifesto promises is somewhat dependant on Labour being in power, not the Tories?

I would see it as part of an overall strategy...and trying to lead and shape sentiment rather than just following it (i.e. Ed Miliband mugs..)