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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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Yeah, people voted out for loads of reasons. The fact is the majority who voted wanted the UK to leave the EU. So let's just do it.
Don't know if its any good or not but this survey reckons basically most people just don't care about the how anymore just want to 'get it over with', including most of those who voted remain.
I don't think that's good news tbh, just looks like a license for the current government to do whatever and everyone will be too apathetic and sick of the whole mess to care.
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It's not a case of punishment. WTO rules require the EU (and ourselves, for that matter) to apply a common external tariff to all other member entities that have not concluded a bespoke FTA.

Moreover, we are net importers of goods to the EU (£302bn), but net exporters of services (£242bn). The problem is that lots of regulations stop or make it much harder for non-EU providers to sell services into the EU. Instead they typically require EU-based subsidiaries to be set up. This means jobs being transferred from the UK to the EU, if companies want to continue to service their EU clients.

Or, we could agree an FTA - allowing for lower tariffs and more trade in services. Here's how long that has taken in the past:

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You're assuming that a transformation in trade practices will take place and that WTO rules will be enforced/implemented. I don't think that's very likely and have seen no evidence to suggest it is.
 
Don't know if its any good or not but this survey reckons basically most people just don't care about the how anymore just want to 'get on with it', including most of those who voted remain.
I don't think that's good news tbh, just looks like a license for the current government to do whatever and everyone will be too apathetic and sick of the whole mess to care.
View attachment 143526

People might be fairly apathetic about Brexit but that doesn't mean they're apathetic about other more important issues. Additionally it's not really a license for the current government to do whatever they want because what most of the current govt want to do is just forget the referendum ever happened.
 
Good, we agree then.

Hang on - you've wasted quite a lot of my time here because you assumed (wrongly) that I was arguing Brexit would stop austerity. Aren't you going to apologise for not reading my posts? It's really tiresome when you clog up the thread because you can't be bothered to read or engage with what people are saying.
 
See, even you can begin to discern the difference between immediate and important.

If you want to see things from outside the Guardians' remainiac bubble, stop fussing about the price of Avacados and the life-ending nightmare of being delayed at the ferry port for an extra hour, and think about how Brexit will be written up in 50 or 300 years by people looking for at how it affects their lives - look at it, for good or ill, as one of the events that changes they way we are governed and how the state works - look at it in the same way as you look at the introduction of Jury Trials, or the Great Reform Act, or Magna Carta and the Provisions of Oxford 50 years later, or the Trial of Charles I and the end of Rule by Divine right - or WW1 and the rise of the Labour Movement and the Emancipation of Women.

Brexit is, or will lead to, fundamental changes in our country that will make the country my great, great grandchildren live in very different to the country they would have lived in without Brexit - again, for good or ill - what no one writing then will care about is a shortage of Spanish Strawberries or the tradegy of buying non-EU insulin during 2019.

They won't even care if no aircraft carrying holiday makers or business people were able to fly to Europe for a month.

Put yourself on the side of history and not on the side of some whining cretins who believes that their personal convenience lies at the centre of the universe.

This reminds me of the Tony Blair exhortation when trying to put the details of the Belfast Agreement that we should be aware of the 'heavy hand of history on our shoulders'. Ironically an immediate move on an important issue. There is a further degree of irony that the practical details of brexit risks the stability of that important agreement.

Indeed you mention great leaps forward from the past, but of course most of those haven't been reversed, votes have not been taken away from women as times change. Brexit is a threat to what I believe was a leap forward (the Belfast Agreement) towards establishing a more peaceful time throughout the British isles. I grant you that there might be something better and more peaceful to come out of all this sometime hence, but there is also an immediate risk of strife.

There is a downside in waiting for jam tomorrow whilst enduring bread and water today, in that people are generally people and they want to overcome immediate problems in front of them now. No one in the future will care about those problems, but for good or ill people in the here and now will.

There was a great leap forward when Jenner discovered vaccinations but few parents would have been keen of their own kids being part of the risky 'variolation' experiments that were a forerunner to vaccinations, even if they were asked to consider the bigger picture and the hand of history.

Incidentally on a personal level some of the problems you outline such as avocados, queues at ports, and air travel disruption don't bother me. However distancing the UK from some of the benefits of collaboration do bother me, and I don't really mean materially.

The line you take also puts me in mind of the suggestion a week or so ago by Jacob Rees Mogg that the impact of brexit won't fully be felt for 50 years, in his case I believe he was talking about the benefits (!) of brexit.

If my perspective and thought process is part of some flawed Guardian remainiac process OK, but I am afraid I am still interested in the practical details that start to take shape in the near future.
 
Don't know if its any good or not but this survey reckons basically most people just don't care about the how anymore just want to 'get it over with', including most of those who voted remain.
I don't think that's good news tbh, just looks like a license for the current government to do whatever and everyone will be too apathetic and sick of the whole mess to care.
View attachment 143526
Source pls
 
Hang on - you've wasted quite a lot of my time here because you assumed (wrongly) that I was arguing Brexit would stop austerity. Aren't you going to apologise for not reading my posts? It's really tiresome when you clog up the thread because you can't be bothered to read or engage with what people are saying.
You've wasted my time with your drivel, why ask this if you agreed with me.

Do you mean you can be against austerity in Britain and against Brexit?
 
You've wasted my time with your drivel, why ask this if you agreed with me.

You're against Brexit and in favour of the EU. You also say you're against austerity. But if you're against the Tories and in favour of the EU, it's quite possible you're not against the austerity measures imposed on peripheral Eurozone economies, isn't it? So I was seeking clarity from you. A forlorn hope I suppose.

Just so we're clear, I'm pretty sure I don't agree with you on very much, I'm a Socialist and I'm against austerity, so I voted to leave the EU and I'm satisfied with the results of that. You are correct that you can be against Brexit and against austerity, my point is that if you oppose Brexit you can't oppose austerity coherently.
 
I'm against austerity, so I voted to leave the EU and I'm satisfied with the results of that.

I just don't get why people think the two things are related. Austerity was the Tories squeezing the middle and working classes. You've voted to leave something unrelated to austerity on some vague idea that the EU made them do it. It's just stupidity and if it causes the economy to tank you can look forward to austerity mark 2. Well done.
 
This reminds me of the Tony Blair exhortation when trying to put the details of the Belfast Agreement that we should be aware of the 'heavy hand of history on our shoulders'. Ironically an immediate move

Indeed you mention great leaps forward from the past, but of course most of those haven't been reversed, votes have not been taken away from women as times change. Brexit is a threat to what I believe was a leap forward (the Belfast Agreement) towards establishing a more peaceful time throughout the British isles. I grant you that there might be something better and more peaceful to come out of all this sometime hence, but there is also an immediate risk of strife.

There is a downside in waiting for jam tomorrow whilst enduring bread and water today, in that people are generally people and they want to overcome immediate problems in front of them now. No one in the future will care about those problems, but for good or ill people in the here and now will.

There was a great leap forward when Jenner discovered vaccinations but few parents would have been keen of their own kids being part of the risky 'variolation' experiments that were a forerunner to vaccinations, even if they were asked to consider the bigger picture and the hand of history.

Incidentally on a personal level some of the problems you outline such as avocados, queues at ports, and air travel disruption don't bother me. However distancing the UK from some of the benefits of collaboration do bother me, and I don't really mean materially.

The line you take also puts me in mind of the suggestion a week or so ago by Jacob Rees Mogg that the impact of brexit won't fully be felt for 50 years, in his case I believe he was talking about the benefits (!) of brexit.

If my perspective and thought process is part of some flawed Guardian remainiac process OK, but I am afraid I am still interested in the practical details that start to take shape in the near future.
thread ends
 
I just don't get why people think the two things are related. Austerity was the Tories squeezing the middle and working classes. You've voted to leave something unrelated to austerity on some vague idea that the EU made them do it. It's just stupidity and if it causes the economy to tank you can look forward to austerity mark 2. Well done.
Clearly related, both projects of capital since the mid-Seventies post oil crisis turn to create a new kind of economic consensus.
 
I just don't get why people think the two things are related. Austerity was the Tories squeezing the middle and working classes. You've voted to leave something unrelated to austerity on some vague idea that the EU made them do it. It's just stupidity and if it causes the economy to tank you can look forward to austerity mark 2. Well done.

It's fascinating that you can write this and accuse others of stupidity, but I'll have a go for you mon.

There are two key points. The first is that because of austerity people in Britain were deeply angry and dissatisfied at the establishment and so they voted for change. That one should be easy to grasp even if you think people are stupid for doing this. The second point is that both the Tory government and the EU are committed to a neoliberal economic model and to austerity measures as a response to the 2007-08 economic crisis. Does that help?
 
It's quite possible to disdain the eu and the government and austerity and still see remaining as the better option, not because of any confidence or illusion in the eu but because any hope of a decent positive outcome now seems so remote as to be chimerical

Yeah, you're right, that is quite possible, but my point was I didn't think it was coherent. Although to be fair I still think the outcome of the referendum result is pretty decent :) Perhaps if I thought the referendum result was a disaster now, I would find that position far more coherent than I do.
 
It's fascinating that you can write this and accuse others of stupidity, but I'll have a go for you mon.

There are two key points. The first is that because of austerity people in Britain were deeply angry and dissatisfied at the establishment and so they voted for change. That one should be easy to grasp even if you think people are stupid for doing this. The second point is that both the Tory government and the EU are committed to a neoliberal economic model and to austerity measures as a response to the 2007-08 economic crisis. Does that help?
This tory govt instituted austerity without any coercion from the rest of the EU. In fact, you could say that they were leaders of the idea of austerity as a reaction to the 2007–08 crisis.

Other reactions to that crisis were possible. Japan has tried various reactions to its credit crunch, including lavish Keynesian public spending. The idea that the modern world permits only one neoliberal-mandated response to economic crisis is simply wrong, particularly for a country that prints its own money.

So the EU did not force austerity on Britain, and Britain will not be freed from any constraints on pulling out of austerity by leaving the EU. In fact, there are likely to be more restraints on a post-Brexit UK if it withdraws from the common market.

So yes, the referendum went the way of brexit probably in large part because it was called following several years of 'austerity'. And no, it does not then follow that brexit will help to put an end to that austerity, any more than it follows that a vote for Trump in the deprived areas of the so-called 'rust belt' will help to restore the US coal industry.
 
This tory govt instituted austerity without any coercion from the rest of the EU. In fact, you could say that they were leaders of the idea of austerity as a reaction to the 2007–08 crisis.

Other reactions to that crisis were possible. Japan has tried various reactions to its credit crunch, including lavish Keynesian public spending. The idea that the modern world permits only one neoliberal-mandated response to economic crisis is simply wrong, particularly for a country that prints its own money.

So the EU did not force austerity on Britain, and Britain will not be freed from any constraints on pulling out of austerity by leaving the EU. In fact, there are likely to be more restraints on a post-Brexit UK if it withdraws from the common market.

So yes, the referendum went the way of brexit probably in large part because it was called following several years of 'austerity'. And no, it does not then follow that brexit will help to put an end to that austerity, any more than it follows that a vote for Trump in the deprived areas of the so-called 'rust belt' will help to restore the US coal industry.

Again, for clarity, I haven't suggested that the EU coerced the Tories into carrying out austerity policies or that Brexit will end austerity.
 
I mean the Austerity done by the Tories that will still be there after Brexit.
You think that that "austerity" began in 2010 with the Tories*? The attacks on the welfare state began long before 2010.

*LibDems, the party the pricks in the video are members of, written out I see. As are Labour.
On the other hand:

The majority of Labour voters voted remain.
What do you think that graphic shows?

This tory govt instituted austerity
LibDems weren't in power in 2010 then? And I think you'll find it was there was Labour government in 08/09, and a Labour Party supporting austerity in 2015.

This reduction of neo-liberalism to "Tory austerity" is weak as hell. The policies of the last decade are part and parcel of the same structural attacks on labour that have been happening since the 70s. And as Jim said the EU was one way capital carried out those attacks.
 
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You're assuming that a transformation in trade practices will take place and that WTO rules will be enforced/implemented. I don't think that's very likely and have seen no evidence to suggest it is.

That's a new one on me. What evidence do you have that the EU breaks WTO rules when it suits them? That it can move quickly without securing a consensus from its members on something like a trade deal that will affect each member state differently?

Goods (which is what WTO is about) are a sideshow anyway. EU is not going to make any kind of special effort to protect UK service imports into its territory - particularly where it can (and is already) attracting businesses to relocate. That will cost us jobs and is a much bigger deal.
 
The second point is that both the Tory government and the EU are committed to a neoliberal economic model and to austerity measures as a response to the 2007-08 economic crisis.
The EU didn't impose austerity measures on us - our own elected government did that, uncoerced. Indeed, the EU had no basis on which to so so, as we are not part of the eurozone.
 
That's a new one on me. What evidence do you have that the EU breaks WTO rules when it suits them? That it can move quickly without securing a consensus from its members on something like a trade deal that will affect each member state differently?

Lots of Western/US ally states break WTO rules when it suits them, the votes are weighted in favour of the US aren't they if I remember rightly? The US breaks the rules all the time. As I've said previously though it's not that I think they will break the rules neccessarily, just I'm not sure where the instruction to implement a swtich to WTO rules would come from.

Goods (which is what WTO is about) are a sideshow anyway. EU is not going to make any kind of special effort to protect UK service imports into its territory - particularly where it can (and is already) attracting businesses to relocate. That will cost us jobs and is a much bigger deal.

Interesting, care to expand? What kind of UK service exports did you have in mind?
 
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