Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[philosophical]

The video interested me because instead of re-running the debate, or fretting about the precision of the labels to be applied, or looking at the history of things, or being a critique of the EU, or the UK, or nationalism, or internationalism, or social class, or how chite any particular party is, or the political prospects of individuals or parties, or a debate about democracy, or a discussion of another nationwide vote, it is an attempt to look at the actual practical nitty gritty detail of the day to day impact of a no deal brexit.
I suppose many would say it is an exercise in operation fear which may or not be the case (I don't think it is), and there are bound to be things to criticize or pick holes in, but as I say it is an attempt to look at practicalities.
I am obsessed with the practical reality of life on the Irish land border post brexit, the fact that after so long no practical or realistic solution to that impasse has been put forward suggests that brexit will not happen because you simply can't take back control of a border by not having control of a border.
If the practical solution on the border is a heavily controlled situation along the whole 300 miles then the debate changes.
If it is true that brexiters knew what they were voting for, it is a very well kept secret.

 

[Pickman's model]

The video interested me because instead of re-running the debate, or fretting about the precision of the labels to be applied, or looking at the history of things, or being a critique of the EU, or the UK, or nationalism, or internationalism, or social class, or how chite any particular party is, or the political prospects of individuals or parties, or a debate about democracy, or a discussion of another nationwide vote, it is an attempt to look at the actual practical nitty gritty detail of the day to day impact of a no deal brexit.
I suppose many would say it is an exercise in operation fear which may or not be the case (I don't think it is), and there are bound to be things to criticize or pick holes in, but as I say it is an attempt to look at practicalities.
I am obsessed with the practical reality of life on the Irish land border post brexit, the fact that after so long no practical or realistic solution to that impasse has been put forward suggests that brexit will not happen because you simply can't take back control of a border by not having control of a border.
If the practical solution on the border is a heavily controlled situation along the whole 300 miles then the debate changes.
If it is true that brexiters knew what they were voting for, it is a very well kept secret.

contact one Tom 'Slab' Murphy, who will - i am sure - be happy to satisfy your curiosity. write to him in Ballybinaby, Hackballscross, Co Louth.

 

[philosophical]

The bloke exploits the border such as it is now in order to break the law and make money from it. I doubt he has a practical solution to the aspirations of brexiters to 'take back control' of the border.
I am thinking along the lines of how do brexiters propose to take back control that would stop people strolling across the border at more or less any point.

Inside Slab Murphy's multi-million euro, cross-border smuggling empire

There were people convicted yesterday of using some kind of craft in order to smuggle people across the English Channel, so there seems to be a demand for people to enter the UK. The smugglers were convicted following a lot of security measures, including surveillance and the like. If the idea is to roll that out across the land border in Ireland nobody has suggested it so far, nobody has estimated how much that would cost, and of course there is the issue of the Belfast Agreement to take into account too.

Somehow I doubt contacting Mr Murphy would satisfy curiosity on these matters.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The video interested me because instead of re-running the debate, or fretting about the precision of the labels to be applied, or looking at the history of things, or being a critique of the EU, or the UK, or nationalism, or internationalism, or social class, or how chite any particular party is, or the political prospects of individuals or parties, or a debate about democracy, or a discussion of another nationwide vote, it is an attempt to look at the actual practical nitty gritty detail of the day to day impact of a no deal brexit.
I suppose many would say it is an exercise in operation fear which may or not be the case (I don't think it is), and there are bound to be things to criticize or pick holes in, but as I say it is an attempt to look at practicalities.

Thing is mate - and I understand this is difficult - the people in that video and their assessment of the practicalities of what will happen is *entirely* conditioned by their understanding of the EU and its history and their interests and worries and beliefs. And at least one of them is a horrible reactionary tool. They don't want Brexit to happen; they (unlike most of the population) care significantly more about Brexit than austerity or the NHS or the Tories or the attacks on the Windrush generation or global warming or Grenfell or whatever. Consequently their assessment of the practicalities is based on their deep aversion to Brexit and desire to stop it. You can't seperate what you term 'practicalities' from politics.

If it is true that brexiters knew what they were voting for, it is a very well kept secret.

If you're talking about what all Leave voters knew they were voting for, it's not a secret at all, you just keep missing the point. They voted for Something Different To This Horrible Shit. Oh, and for Cameron to resign - we all knew we'd get that.

Sure, within that, some of them may have thought they were voting for border control or against austerity or to lock up immigrants or for a Global Britain. But there are a couple of key things everyone knew they were voting for and and they were right.

One of the problems for some Remain voters is that they haven't quite understood that Leave voters wanted Something Different, or why they did. So every contribution to the debate is along the lines of "oh but things will be so awful when things change" which gets zero echo or response because enough people have reached a point where anything different will do, nobody cares particularly, people just want to force any kind of change in society they can. Which is why people voted for Leave in huge numbers, but also for Corbyn, despite what the establishment had to say about Corbyn.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There's a difference between understanding why people voted for something and actually supporting that thing they voted for.

As ever, got to be careful about simplistic representations of the leave vote, though. The vote split down many different ways - you can tell many different stories about it by splitting the vote up by age, ethnicity, region, GE voting intentions, personal debt levels, number of immigrants in an area, etc, as well as by socio-economic class.

Here's an analysis challenging some of the assumptions that this was at least in part a revolt of the working class. More a revolt of the so-called 'squeezed middle' - not people reaching a point of desperation, but people perceiving that their own status is in a process of decline from a level well above the bottom.

 

[philosophical]

Thing is mate - and I understand this is difficult - the people in that video and their assessment of the practicalities of what will happen is *entirely* conditioned by their understanding of the EU and its history and their interests and worries and beliefs. And at least one of them is a horrible reactionary tool. They don't want Brexit to happen; they (unlike most of the population) care significantly more about Brexit than austerity or the NHS or the Tories or the attacks on the Windrush generation or global warming or Grenfell or whatever. Consequently their assessment of the practicalities is based on their deep aversion to Brexit and desire to stop it. You can't seperate what you term 'practicalities' from politics.



If you're talking about what all Leave voters knew they were voting for, it's not a secret at all, you just keep missing the point. They voted for Something Different To This Horrible Shit. Oh, and for Cameron to resign - we all knew we'd get that.

Sure, within that, some of them may have thought they were voting for border control or against austerity or to lock up immigrants or for a Global Britain. But there are a couple of key things everyone knew they were voting for and and they were right.

One of the problems for some Remain voters is that they haven't quite understood that Leave voters wanted Something Different, or why they did. So every contribution to the debate is along the lines of "oh but things will be so awful when things change" which gets zero echo or response because enough people have reached a point where anything different will do, nobody cares particularly, people just want to force any kind of change in society they can. Which is why people voted for Leave in huge numbers, but also for Corbyn, despite what the establishment had to say about Corbyn.

Thank you for this reply.

I have come to realise that a lot of people voted for something different to this horrible shit.
I also take your point that the people in the film have an agenda. They will have a bias certainly.
Then again is there anybody in this whole malarkey that does not have a bias and can see things in a crystal clear way?
My point is that the film is about the 'something' in the 'something different to this horrible shit', it is about discussing the practicalities that will impact to a greater or lesser degree on everybody with a no deal brexit.
You may take the view that such a discussion has no relevance, get to tomorrow as it were and worry about how to deal with it then, or as each issue arises bit by bit.
Either way, brexit is the fatberg in the sewer of British politics and ignoring it won't make it go away.
Yeah 'something different to all this horrible shit' is understandable, but what that something different is going to be has to be faced sometime or other.

 

[Idris2002]

Cometh the hour, cometh the man:

 

[sleaterkinney]

You can be against both Austerity and Brexit.

 

[teuchter]

enough people have reached a point where anything different will do, nobody cares particularly, people just want to force any kind of change in society they can. Which is why people voted for Leave in huge numbers,

Yes, that's the story you want to tell, but I don't think there's enough evidence just to state it as fact.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Then again is there anybody in this whole malarkey that does not have a bias and can see things in a crystal clear way?

Bias doesn't neccessarily cloud judgement or clarity of perspective. I'm heavily biased towards the working and exploited classes of the world but my judgement/perspective remains crystal clear

My point is that the film is about the 'something' in the 'something different to this horrible shit', it is about discussing the practicalities that will impact to a greater or lesser degree on everybody with a no deal brexit.
You may take the view that such a discussion has no relevance, get to tomorrow as it were and worry about how to deal with it then, or as each issue arises bit by bit..

I'm not saying it's not relevant. More that the referendum throws up the opportunity to talk about what kind of society we want to live in, and to fight for a vision of society which we prefer. But if you spend all your time talking about how awful change will be, especially when we don't really know for sure what any of these changes will mean or even if the bourgeois will allow any significant change to take place as a result of the referendum, then you cut yourself off from others who are willing to talk about how society could be different, and you don't put any perspective across other than a position of generally being against change - small c conservatism if you will.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes, that's the story you want to tell, but I don't think there's enough evidence just to state it as fact.

I could tell another story, consistent with the facts about the vote:

In these times of increasing difficulties and pay cuts, but generally rather low unemployment, those working (often next to immigrants) in minimum wage jobs don't see their immigrant colleagues as a threat. Why would they? But those who see the wage they can command for the skill they have dropping, say, from £20 an hour to £12-15 per hour, and see that this drop has coincided with a large influx of immigrants selling that same skill, make the link between the two and see immigrant colleagues as unwelcome rivals.

 

[SpackleFrog]

You can be against both Austerity and Brexit.

You can but people will ask you awkward questions about Greece. Do you mean you can be against austerity in Britain and against Brexit?

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yes, that's the story you want to tell, but I don't think there's enough evidence just to state it as fact.

You're so wrong it hurts. I'm off for a lie down.

 

[philosophical]

Bias doesn't neccessarily cloud judgement or clarity of perspective. I'm heavily biased towards the working and exploited classes of the world but my judgement/perspective remains crystal clear




I'm not saying it's not relevant. More that the referendum throws up the opportunity to talk about what kind of society we want to live in, and to fight for a vision of society which we prefer. But if you spend all your time talking about how awful change will be, especially when we don't really know for sure what any of these changes will mean or even if the bourgeois will allow any significant change to take place as a result of the referendum, then you cut yourself off from others who are willing to talk about how society could be different, and you don't put any perspective across other than a position of generally being against change - small c conservatism if you will.

I am all for change.
I have to go out now.
My brief comment is that it is good to discuss the potential of society, but brexit is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison to fundamental societal change, and that is my focus right now.

 

[sleaterkinney]

You can but people will ask you awkward questions about Greece. Do you mean you can be against austerity in Britain and against Brexit?

I mean the Austerity done by the Tories that will still be there after Brexit.

 

[bimble]

The people who voted leave were more likely to have voted tory in the 2015 election wasn't it.
'Conservatives voted to Leave, 61% to 39%' ?

 

[Pickman's model]

The people who voted leave were more likely to have voted tory in the 2015 election wasn't it.
'Conservatives voted to Leave, 61% to 39%' ?

so where do you suggest the other c.11m leave votes came from? (11334920*0.61=6914301)

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The people who voted leave were more likely to have voted tory in the 2015 election wasn't it.
'Conservatives voted to Leave, 61% to 39%' ?

I didn't vote at all in the 2015 election.

 

[bimble]

I get that. Just think its not as simple as some people are trying to paint it, and that the caricatures from both 'sides' are just shit .

 

[kebabking]

I am all for change.
I have to go out now.
My brief comment is that it is good to discuss the potential of society, but brexit is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison to fundamental societal change, and that is my focus right now.

See, even you can begin to discern the difference between immediate and important.

If you want to see things from outside the Guardians' remainiac bubble, stop fussing about the price of Avacados and the life-ending nightmare of being delayed at the ferry port for an extra hour, and think about how Brexit will be written up in 50 or 300 years by people looking for at how it affects their lives - look at it, for good or ill, as one of the events that changes they way we are governed and how the state works - look at it in the same way as you look at the introduction of Jury Trials, or the Great Reform Act, or Magna Carta and the Provisions of Oxford 50 years later, or the Trial of Charles I and the end of Rule by Divine right - or WW1 and the rise of the Labour Movement and the Emancipation of Women.

Brexit is, or will lead to, fundamental changes in our country that will make the country my great, great grandchildren live in very different to the country they would have lived in without Brexit - again, for good or ill - what no one writing then will care about is a shortage of Spanish Strawberries or the tradegy of buying non-EU insulin during 2019.

They won't even care if no aircraft carrying holiday makers or business people were able to fly to Europe for a month.

Put yourself on the side of history and not on the side of some whining cretins who believes that their personal convenience lies at the centre of the universe.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I get that. Just think its not as simple as some people are trying to paint it, and that the caricatures from both 'sides' are just shit .

Yeah, people voted out for loads of reasons. The fact is the majority who voted wanted the UK to leave the EU. So let's just do it.

 

[MikeMcc]

It definitely wasn't that simple, there were many Labour strongholds that voted heavily for Brexit at the time. I'll try and dig out a link to an article I was reading this morning that Goole appears to be still heavily in favour of Brexit, despite Siemens aiming to build a train carriage manufacturing facility there.

Found it: In England's forgotten 'rust belt', voters show little sign of...

I believe that areas that are suffering deprivation in the UK look at the possibility of funds freed up helping development in their area. As a net contributor to the EU, they have a point, but the difference between what's paid out to what we recieve back in development funding I think is pretty small.Even more so if that money is going to be soaked up by the increases in NHS, Defence, Border Security, Customs, etc.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

If you want to see things from outside the Guardians' remainiac bubble, stop fussing about the price of Avacados and the life-ending nightmare of being delayed at the ferry port for an extra hour, and think about how Brexit will be written up in 50 or 300 years by people looking for at how it affects their lives - look at it, for good or ill, as one of the events that changes they way we are governed and how the state works - look at it in the same way as you look at the introduction of Jury Trials, or the Great Reform Act, or Magna Carta and the Provisions of Oxford 50 years later, or the Trial of Charles I and the end of Rule by Divine right - or WW1 and the rise of the Labour Movement and the Emancipation of Women.

Indeed. Looked at like that, ignoring the short-term inconveniences, it seems an immeasurably worse idea. A necessary precondition for something really fucking ugly.

 

[DotCommunist]

there were many Labour strongholds that voted heavily for Brexit at the time.

yep, which is why the idea that brexit signaled a trumpian turn to the right doesn't bear scrutiny

here, re-post but its still interesting:
Tom Hazeldine: Revolt of the Rustbelt. New Left Review 105, May-June 2017.

the denial of this angle from annoyed libs who had othered the leave voter into his racist shell suit bears striking similarity to the rush to analyse what trump voters drive

 

[bimble]

I just hope that 'in 50 to 300 years' we won't still be shouting brexiteer/ remoaner at eachother, and wearing special hats or something to mark what side we're on.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[sleaterkinney]

yep, which is why the idea that brexit signaled a trumpian turn to the right doesn't bear scrutiny

here, re-post but its still interesting:
Tom Hazeldine: Revolt of the Rustbelt. New Left Review 105, May-June 2017.

the denial of this angle from annoyed libs who had othered the leave voter into his racist shell suit bears striking similarity to the rush to analyse what trump voters drive

On the other hand:

The majority of Labour voters voted remain.

 

[butchersapron]

View attachment 143511

What about pickle?

 

[SpookyFrank]

The EU has to die if neoliberalism is to be defeated. The UK is arguably in the best position of all the EU nations to jump ship first, and to destabilise the rest of the bloc by doing so. If I'm thinking long term, 50-100 years, then I'm 100% pro-brexit. As someone who has to live in the UK in the meantime and who needs a job and food and healthcare and stuff, I'm less enthusiastic.

 

[Ranbay]

What about pickle?