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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


  • Total voters
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If you want to see things from outside the Guardians' remainiac bubble, stop fussing about the price of Avacados and the life-ending nightmare of being delayed at the ferry port for an extra hour, and think about how Brexit will be written up in 50 or 300 years by people looking for at how it affects their lives

"Wait, so in August of 2018, they were in the middle of a massive heatwave, there were droughts and disasters and record-breaking temperatures happening all over the place, they knew emissions targets had to be met to stop things getting much worse and they were freaking out over ... some trade deal with Belgium?"

"Well, it was with the 27 countries that were in what used to be called the European Union, but you're broadly correct."

"Bellends."
 
On the other hand:

Ill-vs-Good.jpg


The majority of Labour voters voted remain.
Allowing for the usual caveats regarding polling questions like these, that is a pretty horrible set of results. Ironic given the present conversation that the only issue there with no predictive value at all is capitalism.
 
On the other hand:

Ill-vs-Good.jpg


The majority of Labour voters voted remain.

Not going to dig too deep into this one but that's presented in a potentially very misleading way. We have no idea what the relative sizes of the 'thinks multiculturalism is bad' and 'thinks multiculturalism is good' groups are for example. In any case, 'multiculturalism' is a term so loaded, vague and widely abused as to be effectively meaningless anyway.
 
The job description & who they think are looking for is just :(. And there's several of these 'senior policy advisor ' positions empty .:facepalm: "Please give an example of a time when you supported colleagues through a difficult or challenging period at work..'


£48,480 - £60,484 That's a bit shit is it not?

Also


1. Please give an example of a time when you were under pressure to meet a challenging deadline in the face of other conflicting priorities. Explain why it was challenging, and any actions you took to prioritise time and effort or be flexible in your approach.

MEGALOLZ
 
Not going to dig too deep into this one but that's presented in a potentially very misleading way. We have no idea the relative sizes of the 'thinks multiculturalism is bad' and 'thinks multiculturalism is good' groups are for example. In any case, 'multiculturalism' is a term so loaded, vague and widely abused as to be effectively meaningless anyway.

The piece of information that is missing is how many people plumped for the 'mixed blessing' option. But where the figure is as striking as an 81-19 split as it is for multiculturalism, unless they are being dishonest in the way they're measuring that, it must mean that very few people went for the mixed blessing option (which surprises me a bit). I've not read up on this particular poll, but afaik, despicable cunt that he is, Ashcroft's polling isn't generally considered to be badly done.
 
I mean the Austerity done by the Tories that will still be there after Brexit.

That's an interesting assumption given that Brexit could potentially split the Tories permanently.

But re my question, does your answer mean you are not against austerity measures in the Eurozone, just the ones in Britain?
 
philosophical should be more concerned with Ireland's looming dairy products crisis.

It is fascinating that somehow this logic has emerged that an economy which is a net importer of goods will be punished for leaving the free trade bloc with high trade barriers. Would make complete sense if Britain was an export led economy, but it's not - why would countries that sell us tons of stuff want to stop selling us tons of stuff?
 
That's an interesting assumption given that Brexit could potentially split the Tories permanently.

But re my question, does your answer mean you are not against austerity measures in the Eurozone, just the ones in Britain?
I'm against austerity full stop and Brexit will not stop it here or in Greece.
 
The presentation of these results has got Simpson’s Paradox written all over it.
Can you explain further? One factor not accounted for is the difference in the age demographics of leave/remain, which is presumably reflected in the samples. So, more people are socially conservative, broadly, cos they're older, and that's also reflected within the two samples, not just between them.

That wouldn't alter the fact that the results show a marked socially conservative trend in the leave vote, whether that's cos they're older or not. Those with more socially conservative views form a majority within the leave vote and a minority within the remain vote. Brexit is, among many other things, very broadly a victory to those with socially conservative viewpoints within the UK.

Lots of things not really related to the decision in the vote can be correlated with the vote, of course, some of them strongly. I would wager that there would be a strong correlation between voting brexit and being in favour of the death penalty, for instance. As a broad-brush indicator of the kinds of reasons people have for voting brexit, and the kinds of things they want to see as a result of it (hint: not lexit) such correlations can still be informative.
 
See, even you can begin to discern the difference between immediate and important.

If you want to see things from outside the Guardians' remainiac bubble, stop fussing about the price of Avacados and the life-ending nightmare of being delayed at the ferry port for an extra hour, and think about how Brexit will be written up in 50 or 300 years by people looking for at how it affects their lives - look at it, for good or ill, as one of the events that changes they way we are governed and how the state works - look at it in the same way as you look at the introduction of Jury Trials, or the Great Reform Act, or Magna Carta and the Provisions of Oxford 50 years later, or the Trial of Charles I and the end of Rule by Divine right - or WW1 and the rise of the Labour Movement and the Emancipation of Women.

Brexit is, or will lead to, fundamental changes in our country that will make the country my great, great grandchildren live in very different to the country they would have lived in without Brexit - again, for good or ill - what no one writing then will care about is a shortage of Spanish Strawberries or the tradegy of buying non-EU insulin during 2019.

They won't even care if no aircraft carrying holiday makers or business people were able to fly to Europe for a month.

Put yourself on the side of history and not on the side of some whining cretins who believes that their personal convenience lies at the centre of the universe.

Mucked up the reply, which now appears on the next page. apologies.
 
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I'm against austerity full stop and Brexit will not stop it here or in Greece.

With respect, Grexit would stop EU mandated austerity in Greece.

We can argue about what might be the immediate, short, medium and long term impacts on Greece of it leaving either the Eurozone or the EU, but Grexit would certainly stop it being a direct consequence of instructions from The Centre...
 
It is fascinating that somehow this logic has emerged that an economy which is a net importer of goods will be punished for leaving the free trade bloc with high trade barriers. Would make complete sense if Britain was an export led economy, but it's not - why would countries that sell us tons of stuff want to stop selling us tons of stuff?

It's not a case of punishment. WTO rules require the EU (and ourselves, for that matter) to apply a common external tariff to all other member entities that have not concluded a bespoke FTA.

Moreover, we are net importers of goods to the EU (£302bn), but net exporters of services (£242bn). The problem is that lots of regulations stop or make it much harder for non-EU providers to sell services into the EU. Instead they typically require EU-based subsidiaries to be set up. This means jobs being transferred from the UK to the EU, if companies want to continue to service their EU clients.

We could agree an FTA - allowing for lower tariffs and more trade in services. Here's how long that has taken in the past:

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