Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Ax^]

have you told the government
-

 

[gosub]

The Will of the Robots!

The algorithms that inform our increasing bubbled media shares can only be a growing concern... LONG LIVE URBAN!

 

[sleaterkinney]

Postinf u

I think that's pretty much what happened isn't it ?

I'm surprised a right-wing tory think tank has problems with it.

 

[philosophical]

Ireland were forced to vote twice on the Lisbon treaty in 2008. The Irish establishment is very much remain. Vote early and vote often

The Irish establishment may wish to remain in the EU, but that question has never been put to the people there so how that relates I don't know.

 

[flypanam]

The Irish government are neither leavers or remainers, so their interventions such as they may be, are not the actions of remainers trying to thwart brexit.

Not quite true, the Irish establishment wants the UK to stay. They are happy to be used by the EU to sure up their own position within the EU and get the pats on the head that they crave, but also the blueshirts get the chance to wrap a green flag around themselves, and present their faces to an Irish public that is sick of austerity, and angry that 3.5bn euros will be given to German banks instead of being spent on the HSE which FG is trying to privatise bit by bit in true liberal style.

As for my earlier post I do think that sections of the remainers have seized on the border issue in the hope that it will stop Brexit. Ultimately its just a game for them, none have ever expressed anything other than disdain for the border region and the people of the 9 counties. And I say that as someone who grew up on the border.

 

[philosophical]

Well OK then.
However the practical operation of the border has to be sorted, and the technological solution, so called, will not lead to the brexit aspiration of border control.
How do they stop people strolling across?
If it is a Trumpesque barrier, in a now beautiful and peaceful place, such an abomination will lead to aggro.
A brexit under WTO rules would demand a border despite May saying she won't have one.
I know I am repetitive on this, but the UK is two years on from the referendum and the UK brexit establishment still hasn't suggested a workable and practical solution, and there are not infinite solutions to choose from.
If brexit means brexit means control of the UK borders it simply isn't going to happen.

 

[Pickman's model]

The Irish government are neither leavers or remainers, so their interventions such as they may be, are not the actions of remainers trying to thwart brexit.

i see no sign of the irish government seeking to alter their relationship with brussels, which suggests they are remainers.

 

[gosub]

The Irish establishment may wish to remain in the EU, but that question has never been put to the people there so how that relates I don't know.

More than 90% of Irish people want to stay in EU, poll reveals

 

[philosophical]

The Irish may wish that the UK remains for practical reasons, so might the Belgians or Portuguese for all I know.
However this whole malarkey is down to the UK as the driver of it. Whatever the preferences of other EU countries may be is secondary to the brexit victory. First and foremost it is surely down to the UK to come up with the ideas isn't it, and not blame others if it is unable to do so?
I see the position of the EU and particularly Ireland as reactive, not as institutions who change to suit the UK.

 

[DotCommunist]

Oh dear, not reacting well to facts again. Fake news

 

[Pickman's model]

The Irish may wish that the UK remains for practical reasons, so might the Belgians or Portuguese for all I know.
However this whole malarkey is down to the UK as the driver of it. Whatever the preferences of other EU countries may be is secondary to the brexit victory. First and foremost it is surely down to the UK to come up with the ideas isn't it, and not blame others if it is unable to do so?
I see the position of the EU and particularly Ireland as reactive, not as institutions who change to suit the UK.

i have given no indication of the dublin government's attitude to the uk's position vis a vis the eu. i have said that they are remainers as the dublin government shows no indication of desiring an alteration of the irish relationship to the eu. i hope that makes the position clear.

 

[philosophical]

i have given no indication of the dublin government's attitude to the uk's position vis a vis the eu. i have said that they are remainers as the dublin government shows no indication of desiring an alteration of the irish relationship to the eu. i hope that makes the position clear.

Yes it makes your position clear.
There are other countries that have given no indication too.
Is that relevant?
I thought the suggestion made by others is that somehow the ROI is deliberately trying to undermine the UK brexit vote rather than simply being the ROI reacting to this UK initiative.
Nobody has 'seized on' the Irish border to make it an anti brexit issue as far as I can tell. Rather the border is a phenomena that exists, and that brexiters say they want to take control of. In order to do that they need ideas how to make that happen in a practical and workable way.

 

[flypanam]

I thought the suggestion made by others is that somehow the ROI is deliberately trying to undermine the UK brexit vote rather than simply being the ROI reacting to this UK initiative.

Who said that? That's your reading.

 

[philosophical]

Who said that? That's your reading.

I started by saying 'I thought'. Perhaps you missed that.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Max fac is just a Tory libertarian dream, it wouldn't work in reality at all.

 

[Poi E]

Fuck business indeed. Now the SNP are the only bastion of good old neo liberalism.

 

[not-bono-ever]

3 takes on this


1) he is a twat of the highest order
or
2) he truly believes in the ethos of brexit so much and is so enthusiastic about the future of this glorious nation that he is willing to brush the capitalist handwringers aside in order to achieve this noble aim
or
3) he is a twat of the highest order

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Yes it makes your position clear.
There are other countries that have given no indication too.
Is that relevant?
I thought the suggestion made by others is that somehow the ROI is deliberately trying to undermine the UK brexit vote rather than simply being the ROI reacting to this UK initiative.
Nobody has 'seized on' the Irish border to make it an anti brexit issue as far as I can tell. Rather the border is a phenomena that exists, and that brexiters say they want to take control of. In order to do that they need ideas how to make that happen in a practical and workable way.

So what’s your thoughts on the Irish Border situation?

 

[philosophical]

So what’s your thoughts on the Irish Border situation?

Either it will have a huge cost politically, socially and financially, and be a divisive issue for the foreseeable, or it will cause brexit not to happen at all.

 

[andysays]

Yes it makes your position clear.
There are other countries that have given no indication too.
Is that relevant?
I thought the suggestion made by others is that somehow the ROI is deliberately trying to undermine the UK brexit vote rather than simply being the ROI reacting to this UK initiative.
Nobody has 'seized on' the Irish border to make it an anti brexit issue as far as I can tell. Rather the border is a phenomena that exists, and that brexiters say they want to take control of. In order to do that they need ideas how to make that happen in a practical and workable way.

Who are these 'others' you thought the suggestion is/was being made by that somehow the ROI is deliberately trying to undermine the UK brexit vote?

The suggestion I've seen put forward, here and elsewhere, is that it's (principally) British Remainers (including you) putting forward the issue of the Irish border as a way of undermining the UK Brexit vote being put into practice.

 

[philosophical]

Who are these 'others' you thought the suggestion is/was being made by that somehow the ROI is deliberately trying to undermine the UK brexit vote?

The suggestion I've seen put forward, here and elsewhere, is that it's (principally) British Remainers (including you) putting forward the issue of the Irish border as a way of undermining the UK Brexit vote being put into practice.

You are wrong about my motivation, but it doesn't matter if anybody is putting forward the issue of the Irish border as a way of undermining brexit or not. The Irish border is an issue per se.
Perhaps brexit will not be 'undermined' if everybody pretends the border doesn't exist.
It is down to the UK after the brexit vote to either gain control of it's borders, or accept that if control of the border is a defining plank of brexit, and the UK can't manage to do that, then the UK can't have the brexit defined in those terms.
I kind of think you have partially answered the question posed in your first paragraph in your second paragraph.

 

[andysays]

You are wrong about my motivation, but it doesn't matter if anybody is putting forward the issue of the Irish border as a way of undermining brexit or not. The Irish border is an issue per se.
Perhaps brexit will not be 'undermined' if everybody pretends the border doesn't exist.
It is down to the UK after the brexit vote to either gain control of it's borders, or accept that if control of the border is a defining plank of brexit, and the UK can't manage to do that, then the UK can't have the brexit defined in those terms.
I kind of think you have partially answered the question posed in your first paragraph in your second paragraph.

No, it doesn't answer it at all. You specifically said

I thought the suggestion made by others is that somehow the ROI is deliberately trying to undermine the UK brexit vote rather than simply being the ROI reacting to this UK initiative.

So who are these 'others' you thought the suggestion is being made by that somehow the ROI is deliberately trying to undermine the UK brexit vote?
It's a simple question which you should be able to give a simple answer to.

 

[philosophical]

No, it doesn't answer it at all. You specifically said

So who are these 'others' you thought the suggestion is being made by that somehow the ROI is deliberately trying to undermine the UK brexit vote?
It's a simple question which you should be able to give a simple answer to.

I took post 8462 to be resonant of the notion that the ROI is trying to undermine brexit. I have heard it said elsewhere (although I can't provide a link) that in some way the ROI is compelling Barnier and the EU to slow the progress of brexit 'negotiations'.
That is my answer, even if it isn't satisfactory to you.
Whatever has been said about the motivations of anybody, the Irish border remains at this time a problem without a workable practical solution.
I will answer your simple question with a difficult one of my own, do you have any idea how to solve the problem?
I would understand perfectly if you don't, whether you voted brexit, remain, or didn't vote at all.

 

[kebabking]

..The Irish border is an issue per se...

for who?

for voters in Tiverton, or Kidderminster, or Blackburn, or Hull, or Hexham, or Swaffham, or Merthyr, or Peebles its simply not an issue - the proportion of trade from mainland GB that is exported to the Republic isn't enough to make anyone faint in the street should it be lost.

voters in NI might be exercised about about a hard border, but very few constituancies in GB are going to be swayed by the issue.

the Irish government is concerned about a hard trade border because 13% of its exports go to the UK, and a large wedge of the rest transit through the UK. it also knows that if there were to be some kind of resurgent IRA (of whatever flavour) campaign, it doesn't have anything like the police, intelligence and military resources to cope, because, as all observers of the various reublican groups well know, republicanism is just as ideologically opposed to the Irish state as they are to the British one...

 

[andysays]

I took post 8462 to be resonant of the notion that the ROI is trying to undermine brexit...

This is post 8462

It's a bit shit seeing all these references to the border, and knowing it's just a fucking game for some people to get what they want in a situation that isn't going their way. Once again proving that Ireland is only ever a secondary issue/smokescreen.

There's no reference there to R.O.I.

Maybe flypanam will be kind enough to comment, but it doesn't read to me that they're suggesting anything remotely like what you've understood.

 

[philosophical]

for who?

for voters in Tiverton, or Kidderminster, or Blackburn, or Hull, or Hexham, or Swaffham, or Merthyr, or Peebles its simply not an issue - the proportion of trade from mainland GB that is exported to the Republic isn't enough to make anyone faint in the street should it be lost.

voters in NI might be exercised about about a hard border, but very few constituancies in GB are going to be swayed by the issue.

the Irish government is concerned about a hard trade border because 13% of its exports go to the UK, and a large wedge of the rest transit through the UK. it also knows that if there were to be some kind of resurgent IRA (of whatever flavour) campaign, it doesn't have anything like the police, intelligence and military resources to cope, because, as all observers of the various reublican groups well know, republicanism is just as ideologically opposed to the Irish state as they are to the British one...

It is an issue for brexiters who voted to regain control of the UK borders outside the EU. That is for who.

 

[philosophical]

This is post 8462


There's no reference there to R.O.I.

Maybe flypanam will be kind enough to comment, but it doesn't read to me that they're suggesting anything remotely like what you've understood.

I accept what you say, I may have misunderstood the post.
If you don't believe that in some quarters the attitude of some brexiters is that the Irish Government is trying to undermine brexit fair enough. Right now I can't provide specific word for word links.
As I said I think there is a resonance, for example Boris Johnson talking about the tail wagging the dog.
We can to and fro if you like, but the UK will be outside the EU, the ROI will be inside the EU.
That suggests to me there is a border between the two entities.
The problem is how does that work in practice.

 

[kebabking]

It is an issue for brexiters who voted to regain control of the UK borders outside the EU. That is for who.

no, its not - one of the central contructs of the EU is the absence of internal borders, in deciding to leave that construct the implication could only ever be that there would be a hard border between the UK and EU. you might then decide to have some other construct that mitigated that border, but the central truth of leaving the EU is there will be a border between the UK and EU. its not really the job of those who vote and campaign for something to come up with a plan to mitigate its effects.

 

[andysays]

I accept what you say, I may have misunderstood the post.
If you don't believe that in some quarters the attitude of some brexiters is that the Irish Government is trying to undermine brexit fair enough. Right now I can't provide specific word for word links.
As I said I think there is a resonance, for example Boris Johnson talking about the tail wagging the dog.
We can to and fro if you like, but the UK will be outside the EU, the ROI will be inside the EU.
That suggests to me there is a border between the two entities.
The problem is how does that work in practice.

OK, we agree that the issue of how the border works in practice is the important one.

I've already given you my favoured solution, which you have dismissed as being unworkable.

I've also said all along that the main reason I took the opportunity to vote for Brexit was that I hoped the Conservative party would be damaged by a Leave vote, so I'm happy to leave the problem of the Irish border, along with all the other problems, to them to sort out or not.

 

[philosophical]

no, its not - one of the central contructs of the EU is the absence of internal borders, in deciding to leave that construct the implication could only ever be that there would be a hard border between the UK and EU. you might then decide to have some other construct that mitigated that border, but the central truth of leaving the EU is there will be a border between the UK and EU. its not really the job of those who vote and campaign for something to come up with a plan to mitigate its effects.

You are right.
I am not enquiring about a plan to mitigate the effects of the hard border, although I anticipate very negative effects if it is somehow established, I am enquiring about how that hard border is established in the first place.
You probably know already that the border is 310 miles long, with close to 300 official and unofficial crossing points, and people own properties that span both sides of the border.
Perhaps you have an idea that addresses the practicalities of that.
Beyond that there is another 'central truth' that the UK has signed up to an international treaty in the form of the Good Friday Agreement.