Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[MickiQ]

Could you try and sound any more condescending please?

I said growth had dropped. I commented nothing on a conservative government that has been inflicting austerity on poorer people while lining the pockets of billionaires. That's a whole separate discussion point.

Brexit will lose money for the country and a tory government if still in power will only ratchet up austerity while dismantling the state further.

Austerity is happening for one reason, the Government wants to reduce the deficit since the Government takes in less money than it spends. There are 3 ways to deal with this, cut spending, raise taxes or do nothing (or nearly nothing) and rely on economic growth to fix the problem (i.e. more taxes and less spending since more people have jobs and better ones at that). Economic growth has been largely flat for a decade now so that can't really be relied on to help.
The current Govt has put the emphasis on cutting spending and since social welfare and healthcare are two of the big three items (third is pensions. with the 3 of them being over half) of what the Govt spends, they've obviously borne the brunt of cuts.
Since the Govt knows that the voting public for the most part would rather have money spent on the NHS than welfare payments, the cuts have been even more skewed towards welfare cutbacks making austerity even worse.
Being in the EU isn't to blame for austerity but certainly doesn't earn any credit for mitigation either.
Virtually every analysis of how the UK economy will fare in the short term (5-10 yrs) are that it will reduce growth by 2-10% depending on the final deal, this will reduce the freedom any future UK government has to act not least because the growth option isruled out for even longer. Any future Tory Govt will find itself having to impose greater austerity measures to meet its target and any future Labour Govt will have to raise taxes even further or accept some austerity.
There are limits to how far you can go in either direction before people start stocking up on pitchforks or the best and brightest individuals and companies start fleeing abroad
(which the EU would be only to happy to encourage, it's already happening to a smallish degree)
In the long run no-one really knows what will happen (despite claims to the contrary), many leading Brexiteers are claiming that freeing us from the UK will lead to greater growth long term though given their record on predictions so far I'm rather cynical.
Of course people voted Leave or Remain for many reasons not just economic ones, the reason I still believe that the Remain campaign lost is that a campaign that basically came down to "Things can only get worst" was never going to be a winning strategy. When Brexit happens (and it will happen) and no matter what form it takes, whichever party is running the country at the time (and for a decade after) will find itself with hard choices to make.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Austerity is happening for one reason, the Government wants to reduce the deficit since the Government takes in less money than it spends. There are 3 ways to deal with this, cut spending, raise taxes or do nothing (or nearly nothing) and rely on economic growth to fix the problem (i.e. more taxes and less spending since more people have jobs and better ones at that). Economic growth has been largely flat for a decade now so that can't really be relied on to help.
The current Govt has put the emphasis on cutting spending and since social welfare and healthcare are two of the big three items (third is pensions. with the 3 of them being over half) of what the Govt spends, they've obviously borne the brunt of cuts.
Since the Govt knows that the voting public for the most part would rather have money spent on the NHS than welfare payments, the cuts have been even more skewed towards welfare cutbacks making austerity even worse.
Being in the EU isn't to blame for austerity but certainly doesn't earn any credit for mitigation either.
Virtually every analysis of how the UK economy will fare in the short term (5-10 yrs) are that it will reduce growth by 2-10% depending on the final deal, this will reduce the freedom any future UK government has to act not least because the growth option isruled out for even longer. Any future Tory Govt will find itself having to impose greater austerity measures to meet its target and any future Labour Govt will have to raise taxes even further or accept some austerity.
There are limits to how far you can go in either direction before people start stocking up on pitchforks or the best and brightest individuals and companies start fleeing abroad
(which the EU would be only to happy to encourage, it's already happening to a smallish degree)
In the long run no-one really knows what will happen (despite claims to the contrary), many leading Brexiteers are claiming that freeing us from the UK will lead to greater growth long term though given their record on predictions so far I'm rather cynical.
Of course people voted Leave or Remain for many reasons not just economic ones, the reason I still believe that the Remain campaign lost is that a campaign that basically came down to "Things can only get worst" was never going to be a winning strategy. When Brexit happens (and it will happen) and no matter what form it takes, whichever party is running the country at the time (and for a decade after) will find itself with hard choices to make.

So how high in the league tables would we need to be before choices weren’t so tough? Third, second or first?

 

[MickiQ]

So how high in the league tables would we need to be before choices weren’t so tough? Third, second or first?

Sorry but I don't understand your question what is you are asking me?

 

[Santino]

Austerity is happening for one reason, the Government wants to reduce the deficit

I'm going to have to stop you right there.

 

[MickiQ]

I'm going to have to stop you right there.

OK please elaborate why do you think it is happening?

 

[not-bono-ever]

i am sure you have already seen this today

The Brexit Short: How Hedge Funds Used Private Polls to Make Millions

 

[teuchter]

please elaborate

That's not really Santino's thing.

 

[toblerone3]

The smoke filled rooms proverbial not apocryphal. Say what you like about the eu or hmg but pls don't so mutilate the English language.

Oh... I thought apocryphal and proverbial meant the same thing. What is the difference?

 

[toblerone3]

Seems to be a shift on Brexit going in Momentum Corbynites launch pro-EU Labour for a People's Vote campaign | LabourList

 

[DotCommunist]

Oh... I thought apocryphal and proverbial meant the same thing. What is the difference?

heh, proverbs are in the bible where apocrypha very much aren't. In metaphorical use to say something is apocryphal would mean has the appearance of a truism but is not whereas to call proverbial shades differently. Dependent on context cos people will often use proverbially with a wry emphasis to mean apocryphal anyway. Cos who really says apocryphal in direct speech except people on 'In our Time' podcasts.

 

[danny la rouge]

heh, proverbs are in the bible where apocrypha very much aren't. In metaphorical use to say something is apocryphal would mean has the appearance of a truism but is not whereas to call proverbial shades differently. Dependent on context cos people will often use proverbially with a wry emphasis to mean apocryphal anyway. Cos who really says apocryphal in direct speech except people on 'In our Time' podcasts.

I always take apocryphal to mean "a story you may be familiar with but which isn't true", whereas proverbial is just "as in the well known story".

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Seems to be a shift on Brexit going in Momentum Corbynites launch pro-EU Labour for a People's Vote campaign | LabourList

I see they are rejecting EEA as well. And naturally, a second ref will go in their favour. It sounds like another tone deaf remain campaign to me.

 

[sleaterkinney]

I see they are rejecting EEA as well. And naturally, a second ref will go in their favour. It sounds like another tone deaf remain campaign to me.

Tone deaf as in the people want a hard brexit?

 

[Supine]

Fascinating programme about the new us embassy on TV last night. They showed the US embassador getting political advise on brexit from his advisors. Some of them were smirking or laughing when talking about how the British people don't realise how bad it will be and the fact we think we are in a negotiation but we aren't.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Tone deaf as in the people want a hard brexit?

JUST KEEP SAYING HARD BREXIT

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Fascinating programme about the new us embassy on TV last night. They showed the US embassador getting political advise on brexit from his advisors. Some of them were smirking or laughing when talking about how the British people don't realise how bad it will be and the fact we think we are in a negotiation but we aren't.

You’re not selling it. Was the smirking and laughing in a different tone to what it usually is?

 

[butchersapron]

Or Tory Brexit. Same shitty trick.

 

[Poi E]

OK please elaborate why do you think it is happening?

Oh FFS. Reduce funding for the state, shrink the state...same old tired ideology.

 

[gosub]

Tone deaf as in the people want a hard brexit?

Thats what we'd get if politicians and or public voted down any deal the government came with.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

I am past adding to this debate on whether Br is going to happen. Zzzzzz

FT link above. brexit attitudes hardening in the leave areas seems to fall in with my experience on this. The steadfast belief in a major employer Nissan (directly/ indirectly) is worrying , as is "I will be alright" take on the proceedings.

 

[Pickman's model]

it may be that a second referendum is the only real way to sort this out, since as matters stand about 50% are one way inclined and about 50% the other way. but i can't see any way that a 60/40 or 70/30 vote could be achieved, and it's this split which is going to bedevil british politics for many many years to come regardless of the final deal, regardless of the success or otherwise of the brexit

 

[philosophical]

Perhaps brexit can be solved if a solution to the Irish border situation can be found that everybody agrees with, because in my view the Irish border issue encapsulates so much about this nightmare.
A people's vote or second referendum is not desirable or needed, brexiters of every shade need to outline the solutions to every problem, and it is about time they pissed or got off the pot.

 

[butchersapron]

Oh my fucking god. Is this some Michael stone style performance art?

 

[MickiQ]

Oh FFS. Reduce funding for the state, shrink the state...same old tired ideology.

There is certainly some merit in that argument yes, the Tory party has always been eager to reduce what the state does, However I would suggest it is a secondary one to reducing the deficit.
You can hardly shrink the state when the state has to borrow money to even function

 

[butchersapron]

There is certainly some merit in that argument yes, the Tory party has always been eager to reduce what the state does, However I would suggest it is a secondary one to reducing the deficit.
You can hardly shrink the state when the state has to borrow money to even function

The state is one of the means to 'reducing the deficit'. If we must think in those terms.

 

[Pickman's model]

Perhaps brexit can be solved if a solution to the Irish border situation can be found that everybody agrees with, because in my view the Irish border issue encapsulates so much about this nightmare.
A people's vote or second referendum is not desirable or needed, brexiters of every shade need to outline the solutions to every problem, and it is about time they pissed or got off the pot.

 

[philosophical]

Not that it matters, but I am neither an Irish Republican or nationalist.
I am gripped by the Irish border problem though because it is fascinating watching people trying to turn base metal into gold and insisting they can.
Even more fascinating is observing how those people lash out at others to deflect from their failure.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not that it matters, but I am neither an Irish Republican or nationalist.
I am gripped by the Irish border problem though because it is fascinating watching people trying to turn base metal into gold and insisting they can.
Even more fascinating is observing how those people lash out at others to deflect from their failure.

it's like one of those times people are out on their own in the wild and find their arm trapped by a rock. do they stay put and whole and starve or do they gnaw their arm off to escape alive?

 

[butchersapron]

Not that it matters, but I am neither an Irish Republican or nationalist.
I am gripped by the Irish border problem though because it is fascinating watching people trying to turn base metal into gold and insisting they can.
Even more fascinating is observing how those people lash out at others to deflect from their failure.

 

[not-bono-ever]

I was told at school that when I grew up , my biggest problem would be how to fill my leisure time after I had done my handful of hours a week token work. Robots would do everything else. maybe the robots can fix Ireland and let us get on with our tennis