Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[stethoscope]

"I'm a Tory and loved Thatcher, especially weakening the power of unions and privatising huge amounts of public assets, but isn't brexit awful"

"I vote Labour even though they're invested in selling off the social housing around here and part privatised services, but isn't brexit awful"

"I vote Lib Dem even though we colluded with the Tories in coalition to ram through austerity and fees, but isn't brexit awful"

Spare me.

 

[Kaka Tim]

the uk out side the EU will be even more prey to neo-liberal forces - the downsides to the trade deals that will need to be signed to try and make up the gap on export markets will be much greater - and the uk will be in a weak negotiating position.
And the poor will suffer - the nhs will be more fucked, there will be even less investment in social housing, charities and community programs will be fucked, wages will be even lower, there will be less jobs - its will be shit. Every single forecast of a hard brexit points this way - and hard brexit is the only brexit that will be available.

 

[pocketscience]

and famine. You forgot the famine

 

[scifisam]

Who do you think will be presiding over Brexit? If it happens? It *should* be the Labour Party right - I mean if we don't have an election within a year that'll be because the unions and Corbyn's labour didn't force one.

More power to the Tories? What power do you think they have now? As a result of the Brexit referendum they've torn themselves apart. If we'd voted to stay in you'd be looking at a confident grinning Cameron as PM right now, not May dieing on her arse.

I just don't get this obsession with the idea Brexit will empower the Tories - what the fuck do you think the EU was stopping the Tories doing before? And how do you not see how fucked the Tories are?

Of course it will give the Tories more power. It'd be impossible for it not to. There will be no more European Court of Justice, for one example. This isn't an opinion - it's a fact that leaving the EU gives the British govt more power (all that "taking back control" stuff) and the party in power right now is the Tory Party. I honestly find it a bit weird that you'd actually try to deny this.

It's also impossible for us to have an election before Brexit because it's already happening. Thought you might have noticed that.

 

[Raheem]

"I'm a Tory and loved Thatcher, especially weakening the power of unions and privatising huge amounts of public assets, but isn't brexit awful"

"I vote Labour even though they're invested in selling off the social housing around here and part privatised services, but isn't brexit awful"

"I vote Lib Dem even though we colluded with the Tories in coalition to ram through austerity and fees, but isn't brexit awful"

Spare me.

This is fine, so long as you're not confusing hypocrisy with being wrong.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

"I'm a Tory and loved Thatcher, especially weakening the power of unions and privatising huge amounts of public assets, but isn't brexit awful"

"I vote Labour even though they're invested in selling off the social housing around here and part privatised services, but isn't brexit awful"

"I vote Lib Dem even though we colluded with the Tories in coalition to ram through austerity and fees, but isn't brexit awful"

Spare me.

Who is this aimed at?

 

[sleaterkinney]

Who is this aimed at?

Anybody who opposed Brexit?

 

[scifisam]

Anybody who opposed Brexit?

Surely not - that'd be pretending that only middle class people voted remain, which is bollocks.

 

[gosub]

Surely not - that'd be pretending that only middle class people voted remain, which is bollocks.

Clearly. The old Etonians represented.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Surely not - that'd be pretending that only middle class people voted remain, which is bollocks.

It strikes me that the brexit vote can be sliced in many different ways to reflect back at you what you want to see. Yes, on average, the average wage of brexit voters was a little less than that of remain voters, but only a bit, and that masks all kinds of other things. By age, there is a massive difference - way more young people voted remain. A large majority of BAME people voted remain. More people who own their own homes mortgage free voted brexit - although the age bias probably accounts for this. In terms of voting intentions, labour voters voted around 2:1 remain, tory voters voted heavily brexit. Working class areas voted very differently depending on the area - working class London voted majority remain, other cities majority brexit.

Yes, some people who feel fucked off and alienated by the system that is fucking them over voted brexit, but many others voted remain, and not out of a deep love of Europe - I don't think the majority of black people voted remain out a desire to wrap themselves in the eu flag. In and of itself, that someone is fucked off and wants change doesn't say anything about this change and what it means. People who vote for the far right are normally fucked off and want change. That's an empty argument.

 

[Gerry1time]

Is that your opinion or have they actually stated this?

Post-Brexit Britain should phase out tariffs on food, says thinktank

'No-deal' Brexit likely to hit low-income families hardest

Some Conservative MPs have said that prices will fall rather than rise as a result of Brexit, because it will be possible for the government to unilaterally reduce all tariffs to zero so consumers can get goods at the cheapest price on the world market.

 

[Wolveryeti]

Everything bad is down to brexit

Yes. I confess - I am a wicked minion sent by Project Fear to con people with the self-evidently spurious link between the massive depreciation in the value of Sterling on the day of the result and the rollicking inflation that has followed.

 

[pocketscience]

Post-Brexit Britain should phase out tariffs on food, says thinktank

That article is about tariffs. The deregulations you etioned "so we can be importers of the sort of food that europe is protecting us from" comes under NTMs (Non Tariff Measures).
I've read nowhere that a post brexit uk will do away with standards (via NMBs).
but while you mention tariffs - from that article:

Although the average EU agricultural tariff is 8.5%, EU rates for fresh beef and veal can add up to 65% to the cost of boneless cuts, while boneless mutton is 72% more expensive, potentially making these products expensive for British consumers.

​

As for washing chickens in chlorinated water - the last time I went to the swimming baths, parents were happily bathing with their babies in chlorinated water.

'No-deal' Brexit likely to hit low-income families hardest

from that article.

Sharp price rises could cost average household £260 a year if UK leaves EU without a trade deal while richest will be least affected

£260 a year isn't exactly the armageddon some on here are predicting - and putting a positive spin onit; if someone offered me the choice to have the tories annihilated to the point that they were out of government for a generation for 260 quid, I'd bit their hand off.

 

[Silas Loom]

As for washing chickens in chlorinated water - the last time I went to the swimming baths, parents were happily bathing with their babies in chlorinated water.

.

The issue isn't the water itself, it's that all manner of squalid, cruel and insanitary slaughterhouse practices are permissible if the corpse is dunked briefly before it enters the supply chain.

Lexiteers, now reduced to defending US agribiz.

 

[Winot]

That article is about tariffs. The deregulations you etioned "so we can be importers of the sort of food that europe is protecting us from" comes under NTMs (Non Tariff Measures).
I've read nowhere that a post brexit uk will do away with standards (via NMBs).
but while you mention tariffs - from that article:

​

As for washing chickens in chlorinated water - the last time I went to the swimming baths, parents were happily bathing with their babies in chlorinated water.

from that article.

​

£260 a year isn't exactly the armageddon some on here are predicting - and putting a positive spin onit; if someone offered me the choice to have the tories annihilated to the point that they were out of government for a generation for 260 quid, I'd bit their hand off.

Pete North (who runs the Leave Alliance and is a trade expert) has been savage on Twitter about the underestimates of the no deal bill which are based solely on a totting up of tariffs. He goes into more detail on his blog:

Pete North Politics Blog: Brexit: stupidity squared

He is a committed Leaver remember.

 

[Winot]

Pete North (who runs the Leave Alliance and is a trade expert) has been savage on Twitter about the underestimates of the no deal bill which are based solely on a totting up of tariffs. He goes into more detail on his blog:

Pete North Politics Blog: Brexit: stupidity squared

He is a committed Leaver remember.

Better link here:

What’s wrong with the WTO Option?

 

[Silas Loom]

Pete North (who runs the Leave Alliance and is a trade expert) has been savage on Twitter about the underestimates of the no deal bill which are based solely on a totting up of tariffs. He goes into more detail on his blog:

Pete North Politics Blog: Brexit: stupidity squared

He is a committed Leaver remember.

The Norths - Richard and Pete both - are committed EFTA supporters (Flexcit) and are angrier about hard Brexit than anyone else on the Internet. I rather liked Richard's eureferendum.com blog for a while, because of the level of detail on phytosanitary inspections and the consequences of third countryhood, but it's getting really cross and repetitive now.

 

[Winot]

The Norths - Richard and Pete both - are committed EFTA supporters (Flexcit) and are angrier about hard Brexit than anyone else on the Internet. I rather liked Richard's eureferendum.com blog for a while, because of the level of detail on phytosanitary inspections and the consequences of third countryhood, but it's getting really cross and repetitive now.

I have some sympathy - I’m getting cross and repetitive too.

 

[pocketscience]

The issue isn't the water itself, it's that all manner of squalid, cruel and insanitary slaughterhouse practices are permissible if the corpse is dunked briefly before it enters the supply chain.

Lexiteers, now reduced to defending US agribiz.

Sorry, but the Eu regulations stopping "insanitary slaughterhouse practices" don't exist . The UK is fully in line with Eu regulations yet still manage to get away with this:
UK has nearly 800 livestock mega farms, investigation reveals
Rise of mega farms: how the US model of intensive farming is invading the world

if anything, leaving the Eu could just as well enable the banning of these mega farms in the UK...could... could make it worse... I didn't make the speculative claim as if it were a fact though - that's why I asked if Gerry1time could back these claims up.

eta: and here - in the heart of the Eu:

Belgian chicken meat exported to Africa is tested for banned insecticide

 

[Silas Loom]

I have some sympathy - I’m getting cross and repetitive too.

Oh, me too. But it pisses me off when the Norths fulminate about the situation given that they were still, fundamentally, cheerleaders for leave and contributors to a decade of anti-EU agitation. And they never actually admit that the state we're in is an inevitable consequence of holding a referendum with meaningless, undefined, choices, preferring to blame the Cabinet for not reading their monographs.

 

[ohmyliver]

Brexit http://edm.sw1a.net/article/articleview/2689307/Brexit: disaster capitalism it's worth reading up on why the Legatum institute (linked to the hedgefundamentalist 'taxpayers alliance, and US healthcare big business) is pushing for hard brexit. They've got the ear of people like Redwood, and other Tory hard brexitiers.

 

[pocketscience]

Brexit http://edm.sw1a.net/article/articleview/2689307/Brexit: disaster capitalism it's worth reading up on why the Legatum institute (linked to the hedgefundamentalist 'taxpayers alliance, and US healthcare big business) is pushing for hard brexit. They've got the ear of people like Redwood, and other Tory hard brexitiers.

Disaster capitalists, eh. Good insight.
These scumbags are probably hedging their options, as they must have been having a field day with the Eu induced disasters across Europe in the last 10 years.

 

[ohmyliver]

it's more about inducing an economic shock which will make the NHS/Welfare state unaffordable in the short to medium term, and then providing a 'solution' which will be the rolling back of workers rights and wages, low taxes, low regulation, 'no tarrifs' free trade etc. Look at how it's worked in the tiger economies, and South America.

 

[ruffneck23]

The richest countries in the world just told Britain to reverse Brexit or destroy the economy

Considering theresa may said last week there wasn't going to be another referendum, there's every chance there will be

 

[pocketscience]

it's more about inducing an economic shock which will make the NHS/Welfare state unaffordable in the short to medium term, and then providing a 'solution' which will be the rolling back of workers rights and wages, low taxes, low regulation, 'no tarrifs' free trade etc. Look at how it's worked in the tiger economies, and South America.

... and certain European countries, no?

 

[ohmyliver]

Yes, and? In the context of the UK 'hard brexit' will be the hammer that smashes what remains of the nhs, etc on the anvil of the 'free market'

 

[pocketscience]

as pointed out many times on these boards, the NHS is taking a hammering whilst we're in the Eu anyway.

 

[Sasaferrato]

It's like the Tories, and Labour following the same politics, hasn't fucked people over for decades. And yet its suddenly 'brexit' that gets all the liberals concerned for the working class.

Define liberal.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I think there is more than brexit at work here. It does seem like 38yrs of Thatcherism/Blairism has run it's course & there is a genuine appetite for change. I think this would have happened with no brexit & Cameron still as PM but it might have taken a bit longer. I don't think Labour leadership is that bothered about what brexit we get they just want the Tories to fuck it up enough to get a Labour victory at next GE.

Fair enough. To extrapolate that scenario, it takes us back to Wilson's time. How long then before Corbyn and McDonnell bankrupt the country, go begging to the IMF and devalue the currency?

Do not forget, neither Corbyn or McDonnell have even been a PPS, never mind held ministerial office.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Yep - I don't see Brexit making all that much difference in the long run, at least not for people lucky enough to not have to worry about residency issues - people will probably be a little bit worse off and the Tories may eventually end up a little stronger, but no massive change. Britain's not going to suddenly turn into Singapore or Albania because of it. The vote that really has a chance to be transformative will be the one on electing a left-wing Labour government, and if that happens I'll be very happy to admit I was wrong about Brexit.

A left wing Labour government will bankrupt the country, and destroy the remaining value of the currency. Borrow and spend, tax and spend. No thought to repayment. Of course, Corbyn's paymasters will be looking for preference for their members, to the detriment of everyone else.