Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
gosub
~#
and then you have all the weekend papers full of Hammond should go for not believing in unicorns
Riklet
procrastinación
If we are a poorer society post-Brexit and I lose every penny I have from it, but a fairer society domestically and internationally is the consequence then I dont think it could be classed as a bad move.
Although I think shit will hit the fan a bit, I dont quite see total economic meltdown happening. As a country we will probably be poorer for years. But who will hold more of the wealth? This is still to be decided.
Fair enough being pointlessly positive is naive, but I'm not planning on crying into my baguette and EU flag quite yet. There is no going back, only forward from here.
Although I think shit will hit the fan a bit, I dont quite see total economic meltdown happening. As a country we will probably be poorer for years. But who will hold more of the wealth? This is still to be decided.
Fair enough being pointlessly positive is naive, but I'm not planning on crying into my baguette and EU flag quite yet. There is no going back, only forward from here.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
All the same, we know very well what the decision would be.
Riklet
procrastinación
Oh so that's it, is it? All over already....
Things were shit before Brexit. I left Britain partly cos of that! Ok maybe I dont have much faith in Labour creating Lefty Paradise but the future is not decided yet.
A depressed and defeated liberal middle class and business elite reeling from Brexit might actually open up more uncertainly and possibility of future change than anything else in the past 30 years.
What do we want, socialism or cheery stories in the Telegraph and Guardian?
Things were shit before Brexit. I left Britain partly cos of that! Ok maybe I dont have much faith in Labour creating Lefty Paradise but the future is not decided yet.
A depressed and defeated liberal middle class and business elite reeling from Brexit might actually open up more uncertainly and possibility of future change than anything else in the past 30 years.
What do we want, socialism or cheery stories in the Telegraph and Guardian?
gosub
~#
gilt markets may well moderate tone and pace
Raheem
Well-Known Member
If that's the choice, I guess it depends how cheery the stories are exactly.
Whatever happens, we are not on the brink of nationalising the FTSE100, are we?
Riklet
procrastinación
Nowhere near.
Not quite anywhere near crashing out of the world's top 10 economies either. The rest depends on how many people are willing to fight for their slice of the future pie.
Fat fucking chance of that succeeding in May 2016. Is a potential major labour shortage and push for higher wages really so much worse?
Not quite anywhere near crashing out of the world's top 10 economies either. The rest depends on how many people are willing to fight for their slice of the future pie.
Fat fucking chance of that succeeding in May 2016. Is a potential major labour shortage and push for higher wages really so much worse?
gosub
~#
looking at it, National Accounts articles - Office for National Statistics,(fig 8) what we had was overly cheery stories a couple of years ago
Raheem
Well-Known Member
gosub
~#
South Korea, current number 11, might have other things to worry about
Gerry1time
Did a wee in Dirac's toilet
No it isn't. The whole point of a no deal brexit is to force the UK to adopt free trade wholesale. Open our entire economy up to international competition and the deregulation that goes with it. Finally kill off the NHS so US healthcare companies can gain market share here for starters. Deregulate food imports so we can be importers of the sort of food that europe is protecting us from.
The strident brexiters aren't using no deal brexit as a bargaining tactic. They actually want no deal brexit to turn the UK into an unrestricted low tax and low regulation state, in the same way some religious groups want to see WW3 to bring about the second coming. What may seem bad to others seems just great to them.
The idea that anyone but the already wealthy will benefit from such events is nonsense. It's why they're arguing so strongly for it, under the cover of nationalism.
No. It's exactly what British workers need. If the massive influx of foreign unskilled and semi skilled workers stops, and it is already decreasing, wages for British workers will increase merely due to the law of supply and demand. Not to mention the benefit of easing pressure on hospitals, schools and social welfare institutions.
Sounds great to me. British farmers and manufacturers will then have an advantage over their competitors overseas, and who enjoys paying tax?
SaskiaJayne
Rural Guerrilla
& yet Larry it does seem quite feasible that the senario the rabid right wing brexiteers crave, that is no deal to transform the UK into some sort of ultra capitalist distopia will most likely deliver brexit into the hands of the left wing lexiteers. Unfortunately we do have elections here & the law of unforseen consequenses caused Corbyn's Labour to do rather better than the Tories ever believed possible when they threw away a small but working majority because they arrogantly believed they would get that huge majority they expected to show those nasty Europeans that the British people were right behind them on brexit.
Thatcherite/Blairite capitalism delivered for a while but as was predicted decades ago prosperity based on the price of houses was never going to last & all we have now is an almost eequally divided society roughly house owners with mortgages paid off or mostly paid off on one side & on the other side house renters along with huge mortgage payers who know they are only a months pay from bankruptcy with barely any benefits system to fall back on.
It does appear that the have nots right at the bottom are now beginning to engage politically. Most young people do not read newspapers or even watch tv news so the gutter tabloid press will have very little influence on the outcome of next general election. It will all come from social media.
The Tories tired mantra about aspiration & house owership is lost on generation rent. They want council housing & controlled rents. Lastest Tory policies are just trying to steal Labour's clothes & nobody believes them anymore.
In the end people will vote with their wallets. Older people with mortgages paid may well see the Tories as a better bet to retain the value of their houses but they are being taken over by generation rent plenty of those already in their 40s with reasonably well paid jobs who still cannot get on the housing ladder. If most voters in their 40s or below vote Labour then we will have a left wing Labour government who will inherit not brexit but the lexit the left have always wanted.
Obama's explanation of the election of Trump was that people voted "to shake things up". The UK electorate did that also with brexit & will do so again to kick out these tired old Tories, I think.
Thatcherite/Blairite capitalism delivered for a while but as was predicted decades ago prosperity based on the price of houses was never going to last & all we have now is an almost eequally divided society roughly house owners with mortgages paid off or mostly paid off on one side & on the other side house renters along with huge mortgage payers who know they are only a months pay from bankruptcy with barely any benefits system to fall back on.
It does appear that the have nots right at the bottom are now beginning to engage politically. Most young people do not read newspapers or even watch tv news so the gutter tabloid press will have very little influence on the outcome of next general election. It will all come from social media.
The Tories tired mantra about aspiration & house owership is lost on generation rent. They want council housing & controlled rents. Lastest Tory policies are just trying to steal Labour's clothes & nobody believes them anymore.
In the end people will vote with their wallets. Older people with mortgages paid may well see the Tories as a better bet to retain the value of their houses but they are being taken over by generation rent plenty of those already in their 40s with reasonably well paid jobs who still cannot get on the housing ladder. If most voters in their 40s or below vote Labour then we will have a left wing Labour government who will inherit not brexit but the lexit the left have always wanted.
Obama's explanation of the election of Trump was that people voted "to shake things up". The UK electorate did that also with brexit & will do so again to kick out these tired old Tories, I think.
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not-bono-ever
meh
Interesting to see brexiteers still talking about a Brit Singapore model - that’s the Singapore where the government provides 85% of the housing, owns pretty much all the land and still owns the infrastructure and utilities as a whole.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
i think the argument that a hard brexit will somehow lead to UK reborn as a fair and just land of social democracy and socialism is utterly delusional. No deal will shrink GDP and create economic chaos - so lots of job losses, businesses failing and much reduced government spending power. So, rather than borrowing to invest in housing and the NHS - the government (of whatever stripe) will have to borrow (at worse rates) just to try and stem the bleeding.
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scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
Who will benefit financially from a Brexit arranged by very rich people in a political party that hates poor people? It's a mystery!
So you don't actually live in the UK? No wonder you think it's fine if people in the UK become poorer.
So you don't actually live in the UK? No wonder you think it's fine if people in the UK become poorer.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
You might be right though, to be honest, I'd interpret those figures as the leave vote staying fairly solid. There were a whole set of factors that might have produced buyers remorse - the notion the original vote was as much about anti-politician anger, the way the negotiations have actually gone, the withdrawal of the promise of increased NHS funding etc. That we haven't seen remain get to even 50% is complex and messy and it's hard to see many people who voted leave suddenly summoning up some pro-EU enthusiasm. But the figures above are one of the reasons why the calculating lizard brains of our politicians mean there won't be any serious attempts at re-running the referendum.
Another couple of months of Tory fratricide and we'll be heading into Christmas with a clear majority for turning back the clock, and a second referendum properly on the cards.
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
The figures had been incredibly static for ages, so even a slight move is interesting. But I agree that a really substantial change is unlikely. On the last point, surely it depends on the politician and their constituency?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Sorry, yes, I wasn't being very specific. Certainly backbenchers and even front benchers with a small majority will think in those terms. I just can't see how any front bench - Labour or Tory - will get to the point where they call for a 2nd referendum. If the referendum was in some part about an opportunity to vote against politicians here and in Brussels, then overturning it ramps that up exponentially (as well as overturning the 'will of the people' in a more generic sense). I'd have thought the only conceivable device for any kind of remain/soft brexit majority in Parliament to get a rethink would be through the messy mechanism of a general election. In large part May has already ruled that out by holding one unnecessarily this year. Brexit will rumble on as a battle between no deal and some kind of shabby, desperate last minute deal, but there won't be any opportunity to turn it into lexit and it can't be stopped.
bemused
Well-Known Member
I don't know, I suspect there are enough that are fed up enough to vote for to remain just to have an easy life. What I find interesting is the apparent lack of any real public interest in the negotiations.
pocketscience
Well-Known Member
Is that your opinion or have they actually stated this?
I suspect the strident (Tory) brexiters are probably split between those wanting to use the no deal as a bargaining chip and those wanting the things you mention above.
Even then, there are a lot of tories stridently against a no deal. So those you mention are a subset of a subset of tories (UKIP basically). How many MPs do you think that amount to?
As long as there's still democracy in the UK, no party will hold a majority with those policies.
Riklet
procrastinación
I most certainly do think it's fine if some peoole in the UK become poorer, sure. I dont believe in trickle down economics.
But if you seriously think that the enormous job losses and massive impact on the poor are swiftly about to materialise then youre kidding yourself. The entire premise of 'no deal' is total nonsense for starter. What, so the day after Brexit hundreds of European companies that ship to the UK will have gone bust and the supermarket shelves will be empty? Let's save this crap for Guardian comments.
I dont see why I don't have the same right to have an opinion just because im working abroad temporarily. Im not some expat cunt who whinges about Britain all the time and hates it. But sure, people do vote with their wallets and anti-Brexit London some possibly have more to lose than the rest of the country over the next 30 years. Maybe.
I won't be retiring for 40 fucking years minimum so that's quite a while to live in a low wage, deskilled economy, reduced social support little no chance of getting onto the housing market without the bank of M&D helping the lucky few.
Take a look at the news in the rest of EU, even from the past week. This is the shoddy direction things are going. Right wing economics and decreasing democracy. The privatised horror vision of 'Brexit Island' is already well and truly in motion everywhere else across the EU.
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
Spot on. If poor people haven't benefited during the years of plenty there's no way they will benefit during the years of famine.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
OK. A pre-election manifesto is pretty much the same as a referendum, you are voting for he party that is closest to your views. It often transpires, that because of unforeseen circumstances, the winning party is not able to deliver its manifesto. This occasionally leads to an early election. Is that scenario vastly different to the cluster-fuck that is unfolding? Now that we know a wee bit more, could a case not be made for a second referendum?
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
Eh? I'm speechless. We go back a century, but it is worth it? The poor, the very people you profess to support would go under, there would be genuine famine. All worth it though.
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
Bill it as a national survey. Do it online, so it looks as little as possible like a referendum re-run. Ask respondents to prioritise a list of options ranging from status quo, to EFTA, to WTO.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
You have left those that didn't vote out of the equation. I know quite a few people who didn't vote, because it was never going to be no. (Same with the Scottish referendum, people who didn't go and vote no last time, will if there is another referendum.)
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