Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Raheem]

Don't worry about Brexit and what will happen after, it will have little effect on your day to day lives, most of you wont even notice any difference. You'll be far better off than in a Federal Europe, which is where you'll end up if you remain members of the EU.

This is reassuring. Thanks.

 

[Silas Loom]

This is reassuring. Thanks.

Hadn't occurred to me, either. I feel a bit silly now.

 

[lazythursday]

I lean towards remain but I'm not really passionate either way on Brexit - but I find it just mystifying that so many people on the Leave side can't seem to see that this will be an enormous change, with huge ramifications, and will affect an awful lot of people (especially a 'no deal' outcome) and there's every reason to be concerned about the short term impact even if you have the belief that it will be a good thing long-term.

 

[Mr Moose]

Tell us again about how Labour need to get rid of Corbyn to avoid a wipeout (and so that they can move left).

I thought that at the time. When given the chance Corbyn did great so I was clearly wrong. Try to get over it. I expect at the time you thought criticisms of Ed Miliband were just a Blairite plot too. Call it a draw if you like.

 

[pocketscience]

Not if you also move your EU operations from your original UK entity to the company you have now set up elsewhere. If I currently write all EU insurance business from my base in London but now I have to set up an EU entity and write the EU business from there instead then the UK has just lost all the work and all the profit associated with the EU business. The EU business has been relocated via the mechanism of creating a new company.

It's funny you mention the insurance industry because I heard a CEO of one of the major UK insurers on radio 4 a few months ago singing the praises of brexit. His take was how it will finally free them up to do more global business while encapsulating their over regulated Eu operations into a satellite subsidiary on the mainland. His take was that his company will have net growth out of Brexit. I'll try and dig the interview out.

Frankly, I 'm surprised that any major insurance company worth their salt doesn't already have major subsidiaries dotted all over the Eu already. Did you get in a tizzy whenever one of the FTSE 100 companies set up a subsidiary in the Eu before brexit? or an entity in China, India, the US etc...?

Even from from a business perspective, then that's still a pessimistic view.
Although I hate the premise of the fabel, "Who Moved my Cheese", it does have a valid point about how different characters react to change.
Up-thread Kaka Tim mentioned self fulfilling prophecy. I'm not sure what he/she was getting at, but imo one thing#s for sure: the attitudes of individuals impacted by Brexit in the UK will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you face the changes of those impacts with a positive attitude, you'll see the opportunities arising from it. Conversely, if you see every thing arising from it as negative then negative outcomes will be the result.

As the remain vote lost the referendum, its not surprising its supporters are now more vocal than those that wanted brexit - and less surprising they 're only vocal about the negative aspects of leaving.

 

[Silas Loom]

Another couple of months of Tory fratricide and we'll be heading into Christmas with a clear majority for turning back the clock, and a second referendum properly on the cards.

 

[kabbes]

In reality doesn't that just mean an extra churn?

No, not at all. That premium is real income generating real profit, on which real tax is paid. The work was performed by real UK workers getting real UK income. It’s churn within Europe but it’s money out the door for the UK

 

[kabbes]

It's funny you mention the insurance industry because I heard a CEO of one of the major UK insurers on radio 4 a few months ago singing the praises of brexit. His take was how it will finally free them up to do more global business while encapsulating their over regulated Eu operations into a satellite subsidiary on the mainland. His take was that his company will have net growth out of Brexit. I'll try and dig the interview out.

Frankly, I 'm surprised that any major insurance company worth their salt doesn't already have major subsidiaries dotted all over the Eu already. Did you get in a tizzy whenever one of the FTSE 100 companies set up a subsidiary in the Eu before brexit? or an entity in China, India, the US etc...?

Even from from a business perspective, then that's still a pessimistic view.
Although I hate the premise of the fabel, "Who Moved my Cheese", it does have a valid point about how different characters react to change.
Up-thread Kaka Tim mentioned self fulfilling prophecy. I'm not sure what he/she was getting at, but imo one thing#s for sure: the attitudes of individuals impacted by Brexit in the UK will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you face the changes of those impacts with a positive attitude, you'll see the opportunities arising from it. Conversely, if you see every thing arising from it as negative then negative outcomes will be the result.

As the remain vote lost the referendum, its not surprising its supporters are now more vocal than those that wanted brexit - and less surprising they 're only vocal about the negative aspects of leaving.

Good for the insurance company is not the same thing as good for the UK.

And yes, companies had branches all over Europe. But the income still previously came back to the UK, as did all the back office work. Branches tended to be relatively small.

 

[Pickman's model]

Another couple of months of Tory fratricide and we'll be heading into Christmas with a clear majority for turning back the clock, and a second referendum properly on the cards.

we'll all be turning back the clock in a couple of weeks

 

[Kaka Tim]

....

 

[Kaka Tim]

Up-thread Kaka Tim mentioned self fulfilling prophecy. I'm not sure what he/she was getting at, but imo one thing#s for sure: the attitudes of individuals impacted by Brexit in the UK will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you face the changes of those impacts with a positive attitude, you'll see the opportunities arising from it. Conversely, if you see every thing arising from it as negative then negative outcomes will be the result.

As the remain vote lost the referendum, its not surprising its supporters are now more vocal than those that wanted brexit - and less surprising they 're only vocal about the negative aspects of leaving.

And the positve aspects would be ... what?

And as for the guff about having "a more positive attitude" - really? smile your way to prosperity?


When i mentioned a "self fulfilling prophecy" i was referring to the same logic that drives runs on banks and panic buying of petrol - people make a rational decision based on what they believe other people are going to do - thus bringing it about.

 

[pocketscience]

And the positve aspects would be ... what?

The positive aspects of remaining in the Eu, or of leaving?
The remain camp needs to make their case for the Eu, although I reckon that'd be too little, too late. Had they done it from the off they'd have won the referendum.
The positives of leaving? For me personally, SaskiaJayne nailed it a couple of pages ago here

And as for the guff about having "a more positive attitude" - really? smile your way to prosperity?

It's not guff. If you run a business and constantly face change with a negative attitude your business will either soon fold, or you'll end up having a nervous breakdown. The same applies in all aspects of life. There were, and always will be stock-market crashes, oil price fluctuations, wars, diseases, natural disasters, etc. If you spend all your time worrying about the potential of negative occurrences in your life, or even worse, deny to yourself about the fact that things are changing, you'll end up in a life of fear. Nothing would get done.

When i mentioned a "self fulfilling prophecy" i was referring to the same logic that drives runs on banks and panic buying of petrol - people make a rational decision based on what they believe other people are going to do - thus bringing it about.

That's exactly the psyche the Eu's tapping into with their stance. The fear of the UKs citizens. The result of which is people still speculating about a 2nd referendums (denial). Fuck that.

If you want negative speculation, how about imagining beyond a second referendum where remain win, and upon the announcement of the result the Eu turns around with a big 'Fuck You!'... 'You can only come back on the conditions you agree to an increased of the UKs contributions by 300%, hand over all the euro pass-porting rights to Frankfurt, and you have to get rid of the pound sterling'.
You know, like what they did to Greece.
How far would you be willing to bend over their barrel?

 

[gosub]

The box is open, and there's a lot of shit that will need addressing before hope can be nurtured.

This isn't the Brexit I wanted but we are where are. That it was that hard to get a plebiscite at all made me stick with a side that did nothing during the official campaign to enamour itself.

But I've seen nothing either since from EU 27 to make me want to rejoin ship... Far from it.

 

[oryx]

Someone* said that we are faced with such incredibly complicated political situations in the modern world that we look for simple solutions.

The 'get on with it!' rhetoric from leavers is an example of this. There is probably an equivalent view from remainers but it lacks a succinct slogan-type thing - maybe 'second referendum' is a rough equivalent.

The imaginary countdown to March 2019 is ticking loudly and no progress whatsoever has been made.

I think the EU do want the UK to stay in, as there are movements towards EU exit in other countries such as France and The Netherlands, as well as the possible Grexit scenario of two years ago. I haven't followed the situation in other PIGS nations but it's hardly likely the EU would want the start of a significant mass defection. The UK is an innovative nation - first to industrialise and then deindustrialise, and we are an innovator in the sense of being the first to formally give notice to exit the EU. Whatever you think about leaving or remaining, that is a very significant move.

The so-called 'Three Brexiteers' are clearly out of their depth (Johnson especially is shocking) and I can't see them negotiating an orderly, dignified and positive way out of a paper bag, never mind the EU.

The situations around trade and borders are immensely complicated and I can see no way they will be successfully negotiated by March 2019.

* I think it was Adam Curtis, CBfuckingA to Google and I've no doubt a lot of others have said it.

 

[Poi E]

Other nations deindustrialised at the same time as the UK.

 

[DownwardDog]

This isn't the Brexit I wanted.

Both sides can use that for their slogan in the second referendum.

 

[Kaka Tim]

It's not guff. If you run a business and constantly face change with a negative attitude your business will either soon fold, or you'll end up having a nervous breakdown. The same applies in all aspects of life. There were, and always will be stock-market crashes, oil price fluctuations, wars, diseases, natural disasters, etc. If you spend all your time worrying about the potential of negative occurrences in your life, or even worse, deny to yourself about the fact that things are changing, you'll end up in a life of fear. Nothing would get done.

"Positive thinking" is a load of individualistic, liberal hippy wank. Try using "positive thinking" when your on minimum wage or benefits and see if it magically pays your rent or pays the electricity. And its certainly not going to create some sunlit brexit island either.

 

[phillm]

The positive aspects of remaining in the Eu, or of leaving?

It's not guff. If you run a business and constantly face change with a negative attitude your business will either soon fold, or you'll end up having a nervous breakdown. The same applies in all aspects of life. There were, and always will be stock-market crashes, oil price fluctuations, wars, diseases, natural disasters, etc. If you spend all your time worrying about the potential of negative occurrences in your life, or even worse, deny to yourself about the fact that things are changing, you'll end up in a life of fear. Nothing would get done.

Or even worse spend most of your waking hours finessing perfect posts to mostly randoms on an obscure internet board.

 

[pocketscience]

"Positive thinking" is a load of individualistic, liberal hippy wank. Try using "positive thinking" when your on minimum wage or benefits and see if it magically pays your rent or pays the electricity. And its certainly not going to create some sunlit brexit island either.

Errrrr.... I am on the dole/ benefits.
I have rent to pay, a family to feed, lekky & gas bills etc.
I guess I'm what's classed now days as the precariate; working in the gig economy with zero financial security. We have no rich parents to bail us out and live hand to mouth.
I have the choice to stay positive or be a whinger.
I find taking a positive attitude helps me to keep picking up gigs, whereas If I just whinged about everything, I'd have topped myself long ago.
Oh, and I've never owned or read a hippy dippy self-help book in my life.
it's you talking guff.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Well bully for you - but the point is that applying platitudanal nonsense about "positive thinking" to society and the economy in general is wank. Like we can make brexit work through "being positive" - its David Brent type shit.
Its not going magic up a massively increased manufacturing base or melt trade tarrifs or keep the free trade vultures away once the UK crashes out of the EU.

 

[pocketscience]

Yeah whatever. and whinging constant negative neo-liberal platitudes about brexit is Juncker type shit.
Here's an offer: I'll stop asking you to try to be positive, if you'll at least be balanced in your negativity.
The Eu, and remaining in it, is not a bed of roses.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Yeah whatever. and whinging constant negative neo-liberal platitudes about brexit is Juncker type shit.
Here's an offer: I'll stop asking you to try to be positive, if you'll at least be balanced in your negativity.
The Eu, and remaining in it, is not a bed of roses.

No. its quite shit. but i dont see anyone here flag waving for brussels.
But the alternative is worse - and no deal would be very shit - it would impoverish the country and fuck up lots of people lives. Pointing that out on a thread about brexit is not "whinging".

 

[Yossarian]

 

[SaskiaJayne]

Depends if you are glass half full or glass half empty I suppose? I dont think it affects any outcome it's is just an individual's attitude to that outcome. Do you wring your hands in despair or do you shrug your shoulders & say "ah well, onwards & upwards"? Do you give a fuck or not?

The Boris Johnson school of thought though. "Smile & be happy & it will all be ok" does come across as all a bit "dear leader" though ie those that are not clapping & cheering loud enough get taken away never to be seen again.

As I indicated earlier. The positive for me in all this is that there does seem a chance of the present government imploding leading to a vote of no confidence & a GE with a good chance of a Labour victory.

 

[Yossarian]

With the Tories running the show it's not so much a case of glass half-empty or glass half-full as it is "Somebody has pissed in this glass."

 

[eoin_k]

...
Frankly, I 'm surprised that any major insurance company worth their salt doesn't already have major subsidiaries dotted all over the Eu already...

There is a difference between a subsidiary that is the financial services industry's equivalent of an assembly plant, providing mainly low paid admin work, and a subsidiary to manage the business strategically across the EU; just like there is a difference between a FTSE listed company and a sector of the economy that employs people domestically. Likewise, there are plenty of well-paid professional jobs in London, created by international finance choosing the city as a European Headquarters.

None of which is to argue that an economy based around financial services (and arms dealing) is positive, just, that this change could have much more impact than you're suggesting. British company's could do okay out of Brexit from a shareholder perspective, while it also reduced the level of high skilled employment in the economy.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

So the choice would appear to be between a bad deal or no deal which would be even worse? What to do eh? The good thing here is that the Tories have painted themselves into a corner with no way out that will not bring about the demise of the present government. So we can look forward enthusiastically & positively to the next general election next year I would guess. Always look on the bright side of life etc.

 

[Raheem]

Maybe TM has been aiming for a bad deal all along. Maybe "no deal is better than a bad deal" was meant to be read in the same way as "there ain't no party like an S Club party".

 

[Kaka Tim]

So the choice would appear to be between a bad deal or no deal which would be even worse? What to do eh? The good thing here is that the Tories have painted themselves into a corner with no way out that will not bring about the demise of the present government. So we can look forward enthusiastically & positively to the next general election next year I would guess. Always look on the bright side of life etc.

yes - there is a possible, positive chain of events. Torys forced to cancel brexit, are turfed out of office and descend even further into chaos and civil war. Relatively Left wing labour government does quite well cos of weakness of opposition - takes the fight against austerity to the EU. Meanwile, post imperial delusions of the little englander variety wither and die having been shown to be based on nothing but bluster and hubris (or - more likely - fester away feeding off "stab in the back" myths)

 

[Dogsauce]

With the Tories running the show it's not so much a case of glass half-empty or glass half-full as it is "Somebody has pissed in this glass."

You think they’d grace us with a glass cup? It’ll be a dirty polystyrene thimble leased from G4S and quarter-filled by the lowest bidder in the tender for piss-filling services. Served up in a food bank, provided only to those who have exhausted all other means of hydration such as drinking the fluid from their children’s eyeballs.