Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Raheem]

The optimist in me can't see that the Tories (natural party of the free market and big business) will take the suicidal route of a no deal Brexit. I think we'll have the transitional (sorry - implementation) period promised in the Florence speech to kick the can down the road.

AFAICT...

If you reach the deadline and you have a deal, you get a transition in order to adjust and prepare.

If you reach the deadline and you have no deal, but you do have ongoing talks and the prospect of getting a deal, you get an Article 50 extension.

But the question that can probably only be answered once we get there is whether you get anything at all simply in order to kick the can down the road. My instinct is don't count on it.

 

[gosub]

AFAICT...

If you reach the deadline and you have a deal, you get a transition in order to adjust and prepare.

If you reach the deadline and you have no deal, but you do have ongoing talks and the prospect of getting a deal, you get an Article 50 extension.

But the question that can probably only be answered once we get there is whether you get anything at all simply in order to kick the can down the road. My instinct is don't count on it.

The EC meeting this month will come and go without agreement. But we'll know by Xmas

 

[Raheem]

We're currently spectators to a pantomime anyway. The correct response to May saying she's preparing for no deal is "Oh no you're not!", rather than "Oh shit that's that then."

 

[kebabking]

We're currently spectators to a pantomime anyway. The correct response to May saying she's preparing for no deal is "Oh no you're not!"

no, its not.

the government, or bits of it, are preparing for the crashing out scenario. a much more interesting question would be whether, even if you had an unlimited budget, unlimited people, and unlimited political cover, could you do all the work neccessary to make the crash-out pretty ordered in the space of 5 years, let alone 18 months?

without wishing to give the government, the tories or the brexiteers a free pass, the whole A50 process was designed from the first time pen went to paper to be as difficult for the leaving country as possible. it was designed to fail - it shouldn't put anyone on their arse when it does....

 

[Raheem]

no, its not.

the government, or bits of it, are preparing for the crashing out scenario.

That's just not true. There is undoubtedly a lot of report writing going on. But, at this distance, preparing would mean things like setting up shadow regulatory bodies, mass recruitment of border staff, emergency budgeting and so on. I'm not saying by any means that it can't possibly happen, but the government is not making any preparations yet, which means it is not yet expecting it to happen.

 

[ska invita]

That's just not true. There is undoubtedly a lot of report writing going on. But, at this distance, preparing would mean things like setting up shadow regulatory bodies, mass recruitment of border staff, emergency budgeting and so on. I'm not saying my any means that it can't possibly happen, but the government is not making any preparations yet, which means it is not expecting it to happen.

and as i posted weeks ago requests from civil servants for money to do certain such things are supposedly being actively rejected by departments. Seems that theres very little activity going on behind the scenes considering the potential bureaucratic iceberg on the horizon

 

[Teaboy]

What are they actually worried about?
I'm in that bracket (Mrs & Offspring are Eu) and I really haven't lost a minutes sleep over it.

What's that line from that Kipling poem? "If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs.........."*


*You've probably misjudged the situation.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

I do know a bit about transport. Before '93 when everything from EU had to be customs cleared. Trucks had to either park up at dock after leaving ferry & wait approx 2-4hrs for customs clearance or they got road clearance to drive to an inland clearance depot(ICD). Clearance could take all day if there was a paperwork problem or customs decided to turn out trailer & inspect load. Each load had T forms an inch thick. Each port had a large team of customs men for cargo clearance. There are none at all now.

In those days there was much less driver accompanied. That is trailers coming in behind foreign reg trucks. Many trailers were dropped at the foreign ports, shipped unaccompanied & picked up by UK reg tractor units from local transport companies. This worked well enough because trailers shipped in on the morning ferry could be customs cleared & be ready for collection late afternoon by UK truck artic units who would drop of their loaded export trailer at same time.

If everything coming in from Europe after Mar '19 has to be customs cleared the following will be required...

Several 100 new customs officer jobs at Dover to do road clearance for arriving trucks 24/7. There is not much parking space at Dover docks so it would be essential that all trucks were road cleared quickly to go to ICDs in other parts of UK.

Other roro ports Portsmouth, Harwich, Teeside etc have the parking space to handle unaccompanied trailers. 1000s more dock staff & customs staff would have to be recruited & trained. Also many more UK based 44tonne truck drivers would be needed & there is a great shortage of these in the UK with many eastern european EU nationals working for UK transport companies. Obviously new IT sytems would need to be developed. Very large wharehouses with parking for 100s of trucks would be needed around the country for ICDs. All this ready to go on March '19. Worth pointing out that huge amounts of fruit, veg & meat for UK supermarkets are imported from EU on a daily basis 24/7.

So on a positive note many 1000s of reasonably well paid jobs often in low wage areas could be created.

 

[pocketscience]

What's that line from that Kipling poem? "If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs.........."*


*You've probably misjudged the situation.

Maybe I am a bit naive, but my general attitude is that I don't want to live anywhere that doesn't want to have me or my family. If neither the UK nor the Eu want any members of our family, then we'll have to fuck off elsewhere.
...and it's not about misjudging the situation. We have a large ex-pat circle of friends in the same boat and most are fairly relaxed about it. The usual suspects get in a tizzy about everything. If it ain't Trump and Kim jung lI causing a nuclear war, Europe's imminent financial implosion, Fukushima, Refugees, Chinese cheap labour, ebola... then its fucking Brexit.

 

[scifisam]

What are they actually worried about?
I'm in that bracket (Mrs & Offspring are Eu) and I really haven't lost a minutes sleep over it.

eta: forget that... i see you've answered mr Bahnhof who asked virtually the same question on the next page

I think most people are worried that they're going to be treated like an immigrant from outside the EU - which shows how poorly those immigrants are treated, really - and that makes a difference when it comes to work, benefits, voting, student fees, etc etc. A couple of friends who have council flats are worried they'll lose them. The difference could be enormous. I wouldn't advocate worrying because it's futile (though understandable) but it is also naive to assume everything will be OK.

 

[Winot]

AFAICT...

If you reach the deadline and you have a deal, you get a transition in order to adjust and prepare.

If you reach the deadline and you have no deal, but you do have ongoing talks and the prospect of getting a deal, you get an Article 50 extension.

But the question that can probably only be answered once we get there is whether you get anything at all simply in order to kick the can down the road. My instinct is don't count on it.

We need the approval of the European Council to extend the 2 year period or we crash out:

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

Article 50

I'm not counting on it, but think it's the most likely outcome.

 

[Raheem]

We need the approval of the European Council to extend the 2 year period or we crash out:



Article 50

I'm not counting on it, but think it's the most likely outcome.

But the question is whether the EU27 will unanimously agree that delaying the inevitable is a good enough reason to grant an extension.

 

[Silas Loom]

Or, we revoke.

 

[kebabking]

I think most people are worried that they're going to be treated like an immigrant from outside the EU - which shows how poorly those immigrants are treated, really - and that makes a difference when it comes to work, benefits, voting, student fees, etc etc. A couple of friends who have council flats are worried they'll lose them. The difference could be enormous. I wouldn't advocate worrying because it's futile (though understandable) but it is also naive to assume everything will be OK.

conversely, while i don't discount the idea that their might be a bit of red meat thrown to the Daily Heil in order to shore up whoever happens to be PM in 2019, you also should remember that we'll be in a 'tit-for-tat' relationship with the EU - what the UK does, they'll respond to.

now, this is where the reasuring bit is - EU people living in the UK overwhelmingly either contribute or cost very little. UK migrants in the EU however tend to be retired, so they contribute not much and are expensive for the host country (insert joke about our favourite Iberian itinerant here). so, if the UK makes life hard and people go back to the EU, the EU will respond, and we'll have boat loads of pension -grabbing, A&E clogging coffin-dodgers being unloaded at Dover.

which, i promise you, is not not what any government of any flavour wants.

 

[Teaboy]

Maybe I am a bit naive, but my general attitude is that I don't want to live anywhere that doesn't want to have me or my family. If neither the UK nor the Eu want any members of our family, then we'll have to fuck off elsewhere.
...and it's not about misjudging the situation. We have a large ex-pat circle of friends in the same boat and most are fairly relaxed about it. The usual suspects get in a tizzy about everything. If it ain't Trump and Kim jung lI causing a nuclear war, Europe's imminent financial implosion, Fukushima, Refugees, Chinese cheap labour, ebola... then its fucking Brexit.

Yeah, I wasn't suggesting you've misjudged the situation it was just an old joke about that poem which seemed apposite. FWIW I think you have exactly the right attitude but I can see why others in the same boat would be worried.

 

[kebabking]

Or, we revoke.

which is abut as likely as Michelle Obama sexting Donald Trump.

 

[Teaboy]

conversely, while i don't discount the idea that their might be a bit of red meat thrown to the Daily Heil in order to shore up whoever happens to be PM in 2019, you also should remember that we'll be in a 'tit-for-tat' relationship with the EU - what the UK does, they'll respond to.

now, this is where the reasuring bit is - EU people living in the UK overwhelmingly either contribute or cost very little. UK migrants in the EU however tend to be retired, so they contribute not much and are expensive for the host country (insert joke about our favourite Iberian itinerant here). so, if the UK makes life hard and people go back to the EU, the EU will respond, and we'll have boat loads of pension -grabbing, A&E clogging coffin-dodgers being unloaded at Dover.

which, i promise you, is not not what any government of any flavour wants.

I wonder how many of these ex-pats actually intend to live out their remainder abroad. I have no data to back this up but I would have a guess that many do / will retreat to the arms of the NHS (and in the process be closer to their families) as soon as they are in the situation where regular medical intervention and care is required. They're all drawing pensions already anyway.

 

[scifisam]

conversely, while i don't discount the idea that their might be a bit of red meat thrown to the Daily Heil in order to shore up whoever happens to be PM in 2019, you also should remember that we'll be in a 'tit-for-tat' relationship with the EU - what the UK does, they'll respond to.

now, this is where the reasuring bit is - EU people living in the UK overwhelmingly either contribute or cost very little. UK migrants in the EU however tend to be retired, so they contribute not much and are expensive for the host country (insert joke about our favourite Iberian itinerant here). so, if the UK makes life hard and people go back to the EU, the EU will respond, and we'll have boat loads of pension -grabbing, A&E clogging coffin-dodgers being unloaded at Dover.

which, i promise you, is not not what any government of any flavour wants.

That is all sensible, but the problem is that this government isn't. They are so utterly incompetent that I could see them actually doing something as stupid as stranding a million British pensioners in the EU.

 

[Silas Loom]

which is abut as likely as Michelle Obama sexting Donald Trump.

A formal A50 extension requires the E27 to play ball. Revocation is the unilateral declaration of extension, a buccaneering move in the grand tradition of Drake and Hawkins, a swaggering play in the great game of negotiations, leaving the EU with a baffling choice of throwing us out or reopening negotiations on new terms. That's all anyone needs to tell the Telegraph, anyway. And the element of truth in that story makes it a solid possibility.

 

[Kaka Tim]

thing is - as we approach a hard brexit, if we see investment pull out, companies relocate and the pound's value collapse - then the pressure on the government to pull back from the cliff edge is going to become more and more intense. Will the media start screaming "jump" or "stop! you lunatics!"?

 

[SaskiaJayne]

Where will the pressure come from though? The moderate Tories & Blairite Labour MPs seem quiet. The baying rabid Tory brexiteers are smelling the blood of a no deal & will probably be pushing to walk away in December & commit the funds required for hard brexit preparation. The left wing Corbyn led Labour are not EU fans at all so may just let it happen in order to benefit from the chaos. They will have loads of ammo to throw at the Tories but I reckon they will be shouting loudest about the neglected domestic issues housing etc less so about the failing brexit. They will be hoping for the Tory Government to collapse in chaos at some point with a majority proper left wing Labour government elected at next GE.

This what urban has always wanted surely? Yes?

 

[Pickman's model]

thing is - as we approach a hard brexit, if we see investment pull out, companies relocate and the pound's value collapse - then the pressure on the government to pull back from the cliff edge is going to become more and more intense. Will the media start screaming "jump" or "stop! you lunatics!"?

Not sure companies will want to rerelocate

 

[pocketscience]

companies relocate and the pound's value collapse -

I would have thought these two things cancel each other out.
Doesn't currency speculation mean that if the pound dips, orders for UK goods and services rise (as happened immediately after the referendum & A50 trigger)?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Where will the pressure come from though? The moderate Tories & Blairite Labour MPs seem quiet. The baying rabid Tory brexiteers are smelling the blood of a no deal & will probably be pushing to walk away in December & commit the funds required for hard brexit preparation. The left wing Corbyn led Labour are not EU fans at all so may just let it happen in order to benefit from the chaos. They will have loads of ammo to throw at the Tories but I reckon they will be shouting loudest about the neglected domestic issues housing etc less so about the failing brexit. They will be hoping for the Tory Government to collapse in chaos at some point with a majority proper left wing Labour government elected at next GE.

This what urban has always wanted surely? Yes?

from the majority of mps who are anti-hard brexit, from the CBI, the city of london, the divolved parliaments, house of lords, the media, academia, the civil service, from a collapse in investment and in the value of the pound. Crashing out will cause all sorts of myriad types of chaos.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I would have thought these two things cancel each other out.
Doesn't currency speculation mean that if the pound dips, orders for UK goods and services rise (as happened immediately after the referendum & A50 trigger)?

they will want because of the likely chaos, because of the status of their non-uk staff, because they wont be able to do tariff free business with the EU and because of the uncertainty. It could well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even the brexiters now freely admit a "no deal" scenario is going to cause acute disruption. I dont believe that the UK government is going to let "no deal" happen - and their noticeable lack of preparation for that scenario suggest the same. And a weak pound may help some exports - but not the stuff that is dependant on importing more expensive goods and services from the EU.

 

[pocketscience]

they will want because of the likely chaos, because of the status of their non-uk staff, because they wont be able to do tariff free business with the EU and because of the uncertainty. It could well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even the brexiters now freely admit a "no deal" scenario is going to cause acute disruption. I dont believe that the UK government is going to let "no deal" happen - and their noticeable lack of preparation for that scenario suggest the same. And a weak pound may help some exports - but not the stuff that is dependant on importing more expensive goods and services from the EU.

That all sounds very pessimistic. If you're going to speculate about "likely chaos" due to the effects of trade tariffs then the weakening effects on the Euro also apply. Add the fact that the Eu will be losing a net contributor & a vital export market, a dip in the Euro value would mean those Eu goods and services will be more affordable. Again, the arguments cancel themselves out.
Even if the Eu increases their import tariffs out of spite (and in all likelihood they will - coz that's the way they seem to be rolling) then UK businesses can always buy elsewhere.
Ex-pat citizens rights or trade don't need to be the the big problem they're becoming. The Brexit vote was a slap in the face for the Eu, and now, being the vindictive bunch they are, the Eu wants their chance to have a slap back.

 

[Kaka Tim]

That all sounds very pessimistic. If you're going to speculate about "likely chaos" due to the effects of trade tariffs then the weakening effects on the Euro also apply. Add the fact that the Eu will be losing a net contributor & a vital export market, a dip in the Euro value would mean those Eu goods and services will be more affordable. Again, the arguments cancel themselves out.
Even if the Eu increases their import tariffs out of spite (and in all likelihood they will - coz that's the way they seem to be rolling) then UK businesses can always buy elsewhere.
Ex-pat citizens rights or trade don't need to be the the big problem they're becoming. The Brexit vote was a slap in the face for the Eu, and now, being the vindictive bunch they are, the Eu wants their chance to have a slap back.

just going on what everybody - including leading brexiters are saying about the effects of no deal - which is chaos, disruption, recession and people lives being fucked.

 

[binka]

Doesn't currency speculation mean that if the pound dips, orders for UK goods and services rise (as happened immediately after the referendum & A50 trigger)?

I don't know quite how much that will happen though. If a company in the UK exports to Europe and sells their products in Euros then if sterling falls they could reduce the Euro price to increase competitiveness and increase sales, however they may choose to just keep the Euro price the same and bank the difference as extra profit.

They may see this as the safer option because if sales increase too much they would likely have to invest to grow the capacity to produce which would have a lot of risks especially as no one seems to know whats going to happen next

 

[Raheem]

That all sounds very pessimistic. If you're going to speculate about "likely chaos" due to the effects of trade tariffs then the weakening effects on the Euro also apply. Add the fact that the Eu will be losing a net contributor & a vital export market, a dip in the Euro value would mean those Eu goods and services will be more affordable. Again, the arguments cancel themselves out.

The arguments only cancel each other out if we are talking about equal and opposite effects. But the EU27 is a much bigger market than the UK, so the effects won't be the same size both sides of the mirror.

Even if the Eu increases their import tariffs out of spite (and in all likelihood they will - coz that's the way they seem to be rolling) then UK businesses can always buy elsewhere.

If we have no deal, the EU's tariffs are the EU's tariffs. WTO rules won't allow them to provide us with higher or lower import tariffs than they set generally. UK businesses can look elsewhere to sell, sure. But it won't be possible to find cheaper tariffs than they currently get by trading with the EU. So, they will be down on the deal. When they buy from other countries, the tariff will always be the same - whatever is set by the UK government. Again, that's WTO rules.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Or, we revoke.

you mean as in say 'oops, we've changed our minds, we'd like to stay in please'?

wouldn't this require the agreement of the 27 EU states? (i thought i'd read something to that effect but it may have been balls)

would they all say 'ok, forget it', or would some at least be inclined to say 'piss off'?