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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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I have six close friends from school days (a long time ago). Three of them have partners who are from EU countries, two of which are married with children. All this cavalier talk of no deal is very worrying for them to say the least. Its all very well saying something will be done, but nothing has happened yet and this shit show is horrible for them.

If an EU citizen is married to a UK citizen, why are they worried?
 
If an EU citizen is married to a UK citizen, why are they worried?

There is currently nothing in place to say what their status will be after Brexit. There are threads all over this site of people having spouses from outside the EU and the time, expense and stress that goes into trying to live with them in the UK.

As I say, it seems obvious that something will be resolved but I'm not them and its not my life that has so much uncertainty. One of them has started the wheels for British citizenship now and all that entails just for some certainty.
 
There is currently nothing in place to say what their status will be after Brexit. There are threads all over this site of people having spouses from outside the EU and the time, expense and stress that goes into trying to live with them in the UK.

As I say, it seems obvious that something will be resolved but I'm not them and its not my life that has so much uncertainty. One of them has started the wheels for British citizenship now and all that entails just for some certainty.
enemy aliens
 
There is currently nothing in place to say what their status will be after Brexit. There are threads all over this site of people having spouses from outside the EU and the time, expense and stress that goes into trying to live with them in the UK.

As I say, it seems obvious that something will be resolved but I'm not them and its not my life that has so much uncertainty. One of them has started the wheels for British citizenship now and all that entails just for some certainty.

If you are married to a UK citizen and have been living in the UK there really will be no bar to staying in the UK and gaining UK citizenship. If they are worried though they really should be lobbying hard the leaders of their nation states to get them to tell the EU to pull their fingers out and end the uncertainty. Pressure from Merkel or Macron to stop fucking EU citizens about may have some affect on these psychos, probably not though, they seem very happy to use EU citizens as pawns in their games.
 
If you are married to a UK citizen and have been living in the UK there really will be no bar to staying in the UK and gaining UK citizenship.

Sure, not knowing what form it'll take is the key here. You live in a country for years, you pay your taxes, you raise your kids, you play the game. Then they change the rules but won't tell you what they are.

If they are worried though they really should be lobbying hard the leaders of their nation states to get them to tell the EU to pull their fingers out and end the uncertainty. Pressure from Merkel or Macron to stop fucking EU citizens about may have some affect on these psychos, probably not though, they seem very happy to use EU citizens as pawns in their games.

Yeah, I'm not really taking sides on this one. Everyone is fucking with them for there own personal agenda. That being said I do think the issue of EU citizens should have been established a long time ago and its something the UK government could and should have done. They are the ones changing the rules the onus was really on them, the bollocks they offered up was pretty thin gruel.
 
Citizenship is a long way from automatic for people from other countries married to British citizens, they need to spend several years and thousands of pounds jumping through a lot of hoops, with no guarantee of success at the end of it.

The UK has been looking for reciprocal arrangements with the EU, but...

Yeah, I'm not really taking sides on this one. Everyone is fucking with them for there own personal agenda. That being said I do think the issue of EU citizens should have been established a long time ago and its something the UK government could and should have done. They are the ones changing the rules the onus was really on them, the bollocks they offered up was pretty thin gruel.

I think it is becoming more and more clear that whatever the UK government offer it will be snubbed. This whole 'we can't talk about this until we have made enough progress on that' shit, but never accepting that enough progress has been made is what we were told they would do and is exactly what they are doing.
 
And Greece is now the land of milk & honey, yeah?

What's your point?
My point was that greece rejected the EUs austerity with a threat to leave the union. The EU called their bluff and they had to crawl back and eat up their gruel.
The UK is not in the same state as Greece economically and is not having to take ECB terms to stay solvent - but on the issue of trying to gain concessions in the event of leaving the union, the position is the same -as is the EUs response.
Its Hotel California - Brussels style.
 
The UK has been looking for reciprocal arrangements with the EU, but...



I think it is becoming more and more clear that whatever the UK government offer it will be snubbed. This whole 'we can't talk about this until we have made enough progress on that' shit, but never accepting that enough progress has been made is what we were told they would do and is exactly what they are doing.

Yeah, my argument is this shouldn't have formed part of the negotiation. They could have made a proper statement up front and said 'this is what is going to happen'. It would have put them on the front foot from the word go, it was the UK government that's trying to tie everything into a trade agreement because they are so worried about the shit hand they hold. I dunno, none of this is to assuage the EU technocrats of their deplorable behavior but this can't be right.
 
I think it is becoming more and more clear that whatever the UK government offer it will be snubbed. This whole 'we can't talk about this until we have made enough progress on that' shit, but never accepting that enough progress has been made is what we were told they would do and is exactly what they are doing.

Yes. Id say that is exactly what is happening - and what many predicted would happen.
 
Yeah, my argument is this shouldn't have formed part of the negotiation. They could have made a proper statement up front and said 'this is what is going to happen'. It would have put them on the front foot from the word go, it was the UK government that's trying to tie everything into a trade agreement because they are so worried about the shit hand they hold. I dunno, none of this is to assuage the EU technocrats of their deplorable behavior but this can't be right.

The UK government has no choice but to tie it to a trade deal, they can hardly go back to the country and say that they have no trade deal but have gained a million Romanians. The EU know this too, which is why these so called negotiations are a sham and will fail.
 
If you are married to a UK citizen and have been living in the UK there really will be no bar to staying in the UK and gaining UK citizenship.

That's entirely dependent on whether an agreement is reached and what it is. I have a friend who is American. I'm not sure how long she has been in the country, but I have known her a few years. In a few years time, she will be entitled to apply for citizenship. At the moment, though, she is in a minimum wage job or thereabouts and her British husband was unemployed until recently. The rules are that they are not entitled to claim any state support, so he couldn't sign on, claim housing benefit or anything else.
 
Why on earth would the UK government accept your proposal, which seems to be 'suffer financially for a unknown period by leaving, or suffer financially forever by staying as the EU's bitch' ?

Its not my proposal. Im trying to work out what might happening. Im saying that a way for the UK to reverse brexit is what the Eu is pushing for - and that parts of the government may be coming to the conclusion that that is the least shit option.
National humiliation and humble pie - yes. (Dont know where you get "suffer financially forever" by staying in?)
The question is weather that's better or worse than crashing out and facing protracted recession and economic/political/social chaos.
 
That's entirely dependent on whether an agreement is reached and what it is. I have a friend who is American. I'm not sure how long she has been in the country, but I have known her a few years. In a few years time, she will be entitled to apply for citizenship. At the moment, though, she is in a minimum wage job or thereabouts and her British husband was unemployed until recently. The rules are that they are not entitled to claim any state support, so he couldn't sign on, claim housing benefit or anything else.

I don't know of this rule that says a UK citizen can not claim any state support if they are married to a non-UK citizen.
 
There is currently nothing in place to say what their status will be after Brexit...

i think the blame for that one lies at the EU's doorstep - May made overtures to the EU within weeks of becoming PM about sorting out a reciprical status agreement - they gave her the long finger.

even now they've made it as difficult as possible - the situation appears to both sides have got to the point where aggreement has been reached on who can stay where, but bizaarely the EU has decided that its red line for this issue is that the arbetor for any UK-EU agreement will be the ECJ. the UK would not accept a reciprical status agreement with the US where the final arbetor was the US Supreme Court, so why would the EU even consider putting a red line around it?

they then, to make matters even less likely to be resolved, bundles the status issue in with the money. if you wanted to doom something to failure, thats how you'd do it.
 
The UK government has no choice but to tie it to a trade deal, they can hardly go back to the country and say that they have no trade deal but have gained a million Romanians.

I don't accept that. There could have been a graduated scheme of some description depending on how long you have been in the country. Those EU residents (nowhere near a million Romanians) are likely to stay anyway so why not put something in place? Certain sections of the electorate may not like it but that's the nature of divorce.
 
Im saying that a way for the UK to reverse brexit is what the Eu is pushing for - and that parts of the government may be coming to the conclusion that that is the least shit option.

It is not going to happen.

National humiliation and humble pie - yes. (Dont know where you get "suffer financially forever" by staying in?)
The question is weather that's better or worse than crashing out and facing protracted recession and economic/political/social chaos.

After Greece had to climb down the EU didn't steam in with any kind of rescue package for them, things are worse than ever there now and they will be for generations to come. Millions of people punished in perpetuity as a great big warning not to fuck. Well, we have fucked and unless we want a dose of the same we need to go through and make the best of the shit hand we have.
 
i think the blame for that one lies at the EU's doorstep - May made overtures to the EU within weeks of becoming PM about sorting out a reciprical status agreement - they gave her the long finger.

Its something she could have done anyway, because it was the right thing to do. Remember it is the UK that has changed the rules therefore the onus is on them. If the EU then set about stitching up UK citizens abroad then that's up to them, you can only control what you can do. Let's face it though they won't - whats in it for them on this one issue?
 
I don't know of this rule that says a UK citizen can not claim any state support if they are married to a non-UK citizen.

Doesn't sound too far-fetched, there are all kinds of rules on minimum income requirements etc. for British citizens trying to sponsor foreign spouses - to cut immigration numbers, the government has deliberately been making it as difficult as they can.
 
Doesn't sound too far-fetched, there are all kinds of rules on minimum income requirements etc. for British citizens trying to sponsor foreign spouses - to cut immigration numbers, the government has deliberately been making it as difficult as they can.

I'm aware of those rules, my very best mate Al is married to a Brazilian, Geo and that had a hard time as he was spuriously self-employed (mechanic, but like a Deliveroo contract type thing). But whilst this was going on their daughter went to school, they got housing benefit and child benefit, so am curious to hear that there is a rule that cuts you off from all state support the moment you say I do to a non-UK citizen.
 
It is not going to happen.



After Greece had to climb down the EU didn't steam in with any kind of rescue package for them, things are worse than ever there now and they will be for generations to come. Millions of people punished in perpetuity as a great big warning not to fuck. Well, we have fucked and unless we want a dose of the same we need to go through and make the best of the shit hand we have.

But the Uk is not asking for rescue package. How - and why - would the EU punish the UK financially? The best outcome for them is the UK humiliated but still a major power within the EU bloc - and Id say there is a decent chance of that happening.
 
If you are married to a UK citizen and have been living in the UK there really will be no bar to staying in the UK and gaining UK citizenship. If they are worried though they really should be lobbying hard the leaders of their nation states to get them to tell the EU to pull their fingers out and end the uncertainty. Pressure from Merkel or Macron to stop fucking EU citizens about may have some affect on these psychos, probably not though, they seem very happy to use EU citizens as pawns in their games.

Unless the end situation treats EU spouses like spouses from elsewhere. Then there's an income requirement - and the income has to be earned by the British spouse and earned every year (a high-earning Japanese man was deported because his British wife was on maternity leave) - and the paperwork and applications cost thousands, which people with EU spouses won't have planned for - and there are usually restrictions on the non-uk partner's rights to work, claim benefits or travel out of the country. Apart from all that I guess they have nothing about though. Except fuck ups causing detention and deportation even if you do meet all those requirements.
 
Its something she could have done anyway, because it was the right thing to do. Remember it is the UK that has changed the rules therefore the onus is on them. If the EU then set about stitching up UK citizens abroad then that's up to them, you can only control what you can do. Let's face it though they won't - whats in it for them on this one issue?

if May - or Corbyn - had unilaterally provided future security of status for EU citizens currently in the UK, they would have removed, at a stroke, the future security of status of UK citizens living in the EU. which doesn't sound like the right thing to do to me...

at the time there was lots of ho-ha about how such a move would be immediately recprocated, about how it would set the tone of the negotiations - sadly, have you seen anything in the conduct of the negotiations which suggests that 'play nice' was the EU's Plan A?
 
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