Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Raheem]

Of course when the next crisis and bailout comes, or doesn't, we wouldn't be collectively held hostage by the vested interests which demand our ever accelerating immiseration.

Fair point. I guess it's well-documented that countries with smaller banking sectors are pretty much immune to that sort of thing when the shit hits the fan.

 

[Poi E]

Fair point. I guess it's well-documented that countries with smaller banking sectors are pretty much immune to that sort of thing when the shit hits the fan.

 

[tim]

I'm sure the tens of thousands of cleaners, waiting staff, dry cleaners, restaurants, mini cab firms etc, will share your delight at this sudden good fortune.

(Being slightly facetious, the point is, if London loses even a sizeable chunk of its banking centre a lot of low-income tertiary people are going to suffer quite badly in at least the short term).

The

Many of them wouldn't be suffering in London thought, as they would have been deported for being low-skilled European undesirables.

 

[redsquirrel]

Perhaps they are raising awareness/expressing solidarity, all those useful things?

Don't see much solidarity with comrades in Greece (and elsewhere) by cheering on the EU, the entity that is currently killing people.

I wonder if any of the speakers called for Corbyn to resign this time. Though plenty of time for LD and Conservative speakers I see.

"The LDs are here as a sensible, middle of the road party" - wonderful, where would be be without them!

 

[mather]

Of course when the next crisis and bailout comes, or doesn't, we wouldn't be collectively held hostage by the vested interests which demand our ever accelerating immiseration.

Another crisis will come, that is inevitable if you look at the fact that all the bailout money that was given out is not being used for lending or investing but is instead being hoarded.

 

[Poi E]

Another crisis will come, that is inevitable if you look at the fact that all the bailout money that was given out is not being used for lending or investing but is instead being hoarded.

And whatever value exists in whatever is being hoarded will vanish in another crash (aside from tidy sums for coupon clipping functionaries and financial coroners.) Add a radical right and inflation...

 

[butchersapron]

Who made gains at the last general election? On what platform? Was it the nazi party? Led by Hitler?

 

[sihhi]

(Being slightly facetious, the point is, if London loses even a sizeable chunk of its banking centre a lot of low-income tertiary people are going to suffer quite badly in at least the short term).

Beware that "A lot of low-income tertiary people are" already "suffering quite badly"

 

[William of Walworth]

Re anti-Brexit marchers :

They are selfish scumbags who believe poor people deserve to be poor in equal measure to themselves deserving to be comfortably off. Liberals.

Probably true of plenty of people on the actual march. But how many were there?

I'd hazard that more broadly, most Remain-voters in 2016, plenty if them much more left-wing than the above, do not think like the above at all, and are also, now, much more pragmatic about there being very little chance of Brexit being stopped altogether.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Re anti-Brexit marchers :



Probably true of plenty of people on the actual march. But how many were there?

By the BBC estimate (over-estimate cos this is a cause they approve of), 2.5% the number who marched against attacking Iraq.

 

[Pickman's model]

Re anti-Brexit marchers :



Probably true of plenty of people on the actual march. But how many were there?

No one knows and fewer care

 

[William of Walworth]

In other words then, a very small number, and therefore not to be taken as representative of people who voted Remain in 2016. IMO ...

 

[killer b]

not all remainers

 

[William of Walworth]

Absolutely, and I should have said so, but my main point were that those marchers are surely Remain-outliers.

 

[killer b]

My post was mostly a jibe at the way you pop up to defend remain voters as if any criticism of them is a personal broadside at you tbh though. Like how dudes pop up to say 'not all men...' when women are talking about misogyny.

However... the total contempt many remain supporters hold leave supporters in remains widespread IME. Among those motivated enough to go on a march? Much higher.

 

[Poi E]

Who made gains at the last general election? On what platform? Was it the nazi party? Led by Hitler?

Labour and the Tories.

Your optimism is endearing.

 

[butchersapron]

Labour and the Tories.

Your optimism is endearing.

But you mentioned a 'radical right' didn't you? Can you point to them and people turning towards them? That was the point of the post after all.

 

[Poi E]

I was referring to matters internationally when discussing bail outs (which was the point of the post.) Oh I get it: your narrative is "liberal opposes Brexit says alarmist thing will result from Brexit."

Have a smiley face at the blow struck to capitalism by Brexit

 

[butchersapron]

I get it, brexit has opened the door to international (probably intergalactic) fascism. Have one back

 

[Poi E]

Humour is best way to approach the farce (for it is not a tragedy.)

 

[Supine]

Humour is best way to approach the farce (for it is not a tragedy.)

It has started as a farce and will end in tragedy. A good story to follow.

 

[Poi E]

Austerity is a tragedy. Brexit is not.

 

[Raheem]

Austerity is a tragedy. Brexit is not.

Yes, it's not the fall that kills you, it's the landing.

 

[butchersapron]

Austerity is a tragedy. Brexit is not.

Is there any connection at all do you think? Maybe ask a greek to help.

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, it's not the fall that kills you, it's the landing.

The cunts what pushed you off are nowhere in the picture though.

 

[Poi E]

Is there any connection at all do you think? Maybe ask a greek to help.

You can patronise better than that.

 

[8den]

Right now if Britain woke up tomorrow and just starting lying to everyone that "We've never heard of Brexit" I think the rest of world would let you get away with it. We'd chalk it up to one of those weird British fads that started and were forgotten about completely within a few months. Like "The Darkness" and that time ITV tried to remake Roseanne/

 

[Kaka Tim]

Here's a thing.

Despite the fact that it looks more and more the most likely outcome - The government seems to have made no planning for a "no deal" scenario. Now apparently they have legal advice that a50 is reversable - so the argument goes that if there is no deal on the table, the government will stop brexit, David Cameron will come out of the shower and we realise that the last 18 months was all a dream.

Now assuming the A50 is not binding thing is true - then the EU know this as well. So it is arguably in the interests of both sides in the negotiations for there to be no deal. This allows the UK to crawl back.

The EU can let themselves be magnanimous - they would much rather the UK was part of the EU - (big economy, important market, disruptive influence if outside the EU, useful military strength etc etc ) and may consider the UKs self inflicted humiliation as enough punishment - lesson sent to other countries, whilst not wishing to fuel anti-EU resentment (avoiding a sort of watered re-run of the treaty of Versailles).

This means that both sets of negotiators are effectively playing out a charade where they work together to extract the UK from the brexit path with as little political pain all around.

No deal does look like the most likely option - there are too many intractable problems- and even hard brexiters like peter north believe this will cause significant chaos and pain (although north - being a sociopathic right wing cunt, is looking forward to this as a year zero moment - see his blog here - Pete North Politics Blog: I don't like this Brexit, but I will live with it)

Bernard Jenkin and others are already accusing the Chancellor of conspiring with Brussels to make a brexit deal difficult. I think he has a point.

Beyond the likes of Rees Mogg, possibly liam fox and a few headbangers, the I dont think anyone in the government thinks "no deal" will be anything but a disaster. Johnson is just a gobshite and wouldn't dare go for if it was up to him.

I think they probably started off hoping to get some sort of not-too painful deal but as that's started to drift out of view they are now looking to deploy the reverse gear whilst still moving and trying to do this without blowing up the car.

I suspect there are some very interesting back channel chats between the EU and UK gov.

Still - the brexit lobby still will be screaming blue murder if this comes to pass and Theresa will be the great betrayer. It certainly makes sense of why they have kept her in place. Shes the Martyr - maybe she's up for the role and thinks she will be seen by future generations as someone who sacrificed herself to protect the nation. I think its more likely she will be seen as a fucking idiot - but there you go.

Now shoot me down guys - im musing here. But i still believe the fudge making abilities of the EU and UK political class and the sheer weight of powerful forces opposed to crashing out without a deal make this a plausible scenario.

 

[Pickman's model]

(avoiding a sort of watered re-run of the treaty of Versailles).

nice to see the auld canard get an outing again

 

[Silas Loom]

Here's a thing.

Despite the fact that it looks more and more the most likely outcome - The government seems to have made no planning for a "no deal" scenario. Now apparently they have legal advice that a50 is reversable - so the argument goes that if there is no deal on the table, the government will stop brexit, David Cameron will come out of the shower and we realise that the last 18 months was all a dream.

Now assuming the A50 is not binding thing is true - then the EU know this as well. So it is arguably in the interests of both sides in the negotiations for there to be no deal. This allows the UK to crawl back.

The EU can let themselves be magnanimous - they would much rather the UK was part of the EU - (big economy, important market, disruptive influence if outside the EU, useful military strength etc etc ) and may consider the UKs self inflicted humiliation as enough punishment - lesson sent to other countries, whilst not wishing to fuel anti-EU resentment (avoiding a sort of watered re-run of the treaty of Versailles).

This means that both sets of negotiators are effectively playing out a charade where they work together to extract the UK from the brexit path with as little political pain all around.

No deal does look like the most likely option - there are too many intractable problems- and even hard brexiters like peter north believe this will cause significant chaos and pain (although north - being a sociopathic right wing cunt, is looking forward to this as a year zero moment - see his blog here - Pete North Politics Blog: I don't like this Brexit, but I will live with it)

Bernard Jenkin and others are already accusing the Chancellor of conspiring with Brussels to make a brexit deal difficult. I think he has a point.

Beyond the likes of Rees Mogg, possibly liam fox and a few headbangers, the I dont think anyone in the government thinks it will be anything but a disaster. Johnson is just a gobshite and wouldn't dare go for if it was up to him.

I think they probably started off hoping to get some sort of not-too painful deal but as that's started to drift out of view they are now looking to deploy the reverse gear whilst still moving and trying to do this without blowing up the car.

I suspect there are some very interesting back channel chats between the EU and UK gov.

Still - the brexit lobby still will be screaming blue murder if this comes to pass and Theresa will be the great betrayer. It certainly makes sense of why they have kept her in place. Shes the Martyr - maybe she's up for the role and thinks she will be seen by future generations as someone who sacrificed herself to protect the nation. I think its more likely she will be seen as a fucking idiot - but there you go.

Now shoot me down guys - im musing here. But i still believe the fudge making abilities of the EU and UK political class and the sheer weight of powerful forces opposed to crashing out without a deal make this a plausible scenario.

Hopefully, this is the plan - or at least, a potential scenario - for the majority of senior civil servants, and perhaps for Keir Starmer and the majority of Labour MPs. I can't believe that anyone in the Cabinet would actively be hoping for an outcome like this, though, because it would destroy the Conservative party.

So, it's a lovely thought, but it requires the government to fall, or for May to be replaced with a hard Brexiteer against whom sensible Tories feel able to rebel.