Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SaskiaJayne]

I see Hammond is now coming right out as the voice of reason. The brexiteers want May to sack him but this would probably have more ramifications than sacking Boris I guess? The US claim their system is resiliant to the possibility of electing a headbanger as a president & this seems to be proving the case. I wonder if the UK system has anything that can stop the country descending into chaos because that is what the people voted for?

 

[Silas Loom]

I see Hammond now coming right out as the voice of reason. The brexiteers want May to sack him but this would probably have more ramifications than sacking Boris I guess? The US claim their system is resiliant to the possibility of electing a headbanger as a president & this seems to be proving the case. I wonder if the UK system has anything that can stop the country descending into chaos because that is what the people voted for?

I have a horrible feeling that all we have in that regard is Lilibet Mountbatten. And yes, it's really impressive how Trump-proof US structures are, and how flimsy ours seem by comparison.

 

[Pickman's model]

The US claim their system is resiliant to the possibility of electing a headbanger as a president & this seems to be proving the case.

you should pay more attention to what's happening in the united states, and what effect the trump presidency is having on e.g. us foreign policy

 

[Silas Loom]

you should pay more attention to what's happening in the united states, and what effect the trump presidency is having on e.g. us foreign policy

On domestic policy, though, she is absolutely right. So it's a fair call to ask about what we have by way of checks, balances, legal remedies to the withdrawal of rights, and so on.

 

[not-bono-ever]

I am hoping we are incinerated in a nuclear inferno rather than have to go through several more years of brexit to me / to you shite.

I have given up now. I don't care any more.

 

[Pickman's model]

I am hoping we are incinerated in a nuclear inferno rather than have to go through several more years of brexit to me / to you shite.

I have given up now. I don't care any more.

 

[Pickman's model]

On domestic policy, though, she is absolutely right. So it's a fair call to ask about what we have by way of checks, balances, legal remedies to the withdrawal of rights, and so on.

so the way the trump administration has chopped services to which it objects is to you nothing

 

[Silas Loom]

so the way the trump administration has chopped services to which it objects is to you nothing

It has been prevented from doing many more worse things. That's the point.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think the tories are now just looking at damage limitation. Any deal they get will be a shit one as far as most brexiters are concerned. A no deal scenario (the more likely outcome IMO) will meet ferocious political resistance and will cause massive damage to them politically. Exiting brexit as no deal could be reached (possibly via a 2nd ref) will also cause them political damage - but probably more recoverable from than driving the whole country off the cliff.
They are fucked whatever they do. Party splits. General election. May cancelling article 50 and then slitting her wrists in the bath - all on the cards.

 

[hipipol]

I detect the true nature of the "negotiations" being carried out is to drive Brussels into such a rage that we are expelled from the EU. At first glance you would think:- Implicit in that statement is the assumption that there is some coherent plan at work...- which is why this strategy is so fiendish - it doesn't actually need any attempt at logic, merely wild infighting, incomprehensible tosh about " all the progress being made" while the PM slowly dies of shame.
That'll get us out

 

[lazythursday]

I detect the true nature of the "negotiations" being carried out is to drive Brussels into such a rage that we are expelled from the EU. At first glance you would think:- Implicit in that statement is the assumption that there is some coherent plan at work...- which is why this strategy is so fiendish - it doesn't actually need any attempt at logic, merely wild infighting, incomprehensible tosh about " all the progress being made" while the PM slowly dies of shame.
That'll get us out

It all seems wildly inconsistent and contradictory to me. On the one hand, no real preparation for a 'no deal' (or even for an actual deal as anything that leaves the customs union will require vast new customs infrastructure). On the other, it seems no real attempt at positive engagement with the negotiations / difficult issues like Northern Ireland - making 'no deal' seem more likely. Part of me wants to believe that this is indeed smoke and mirrors mostly designed to save face within the Tory Party and there is some sort of plan for a fudge. Another part of me worries that this inconsistency and chaotic approach is simply happening because of the lack of agreement within the government / May's lack of power and indeed the country is careering towards an unprepared-for crash exit while the Tories bicker amongst themselves.

What I don't understand is why the party representing capital is not being heavily lent on by its mates in the financial sector in particular to sort this out ASAP.

 

[Wilf]

I think the tories as now just looking at damage limitation. Any deal they get will be a shit one as far as most brexiters are concerned. A no deal scenario (the more likely outcome IMO) will meet ferocious political resistance and will cause massive damage to them politically. Exiting brexit as no deal could be reached (possibly via a 2nd ref) will also cause them political damage - but probably more recoverable from than driving the whole country off the cliff.
They are fucked whatever they do. Party splits. General election. May cancelling article 50 and then slitting her wrists in the bath - all on the cards.

I think a lot of this goes to Cameron's decision to hold the referendum. The one issue that has obsessed the tory party for decades ... and when it finally happened they hadn't got a clue how to do it. The more swivel eyed had the absurd notion that the UK was so important as a market/financial centre/pal of America that they'd be able to bully their way through the negotiations. Instead it's been one fuck up after another. Ultimately, for me, brexit v remain were about choosing between versions of neo-liberalism and that remains the long term issue. But it's hard to British finances or GDP gaining in even the medium term. But ultimately, it's the issue of how it could be stopped? I just posted (on the wrong thread ) that it's hard to see a scenario where the current cabinet - or some kind of cross party alliance - pulls the plug. How any of them would see it as being in their short term personal/political interest to do so? As you say, a second ref or general election around the terms of the deal is just about the only way this all stops. But I still can't see which group of politicians are going to take on the tide of criticism they would encounter. Equally, it's hard to see how a remoaner could win any ballot to replace May - a pre-requisite to the notion of revisiting brexit.

 

[kebabking]

..Now shoot me down guys - im musing here. But i still believe the fudge making abilities of the EU and UK political class and the sheer weight of powerful forces opposed to crashing out without a deal make this a plausible scenario.

i think - and i voted remain, if without a great deal of enthusiasm - that your theory is predicated on three errors: firstly that Legal advice has any great bearing, i) because if you consult 10 lawyers you'll get 11 definative opinions, and just because the UK's legal advice is that A50 is reversible, whats to say that the Commissions, or EU parliaments, or the differing member states is that its reversible, ii) the legalities or otherwise simply aren't driving this - its politics, and the legal advice only matters if it points in the direction that politicians want it to. if it doesn't, they'll get new legal advice, and iii) getting a pronouncement from the ECJ on whether its reversible or not is akin to kicking into the long grass. who ever gets the answer they don't want will appeal - and and it certainly won't be finished in time to help a truck driver sat at Calais on the 30th March 2019 with a trailer full of rotting produce.

secondly it ignores the pretty spectacular breakdown in relations between the wider UK state apparatus and the EU - you'll not find many civil servants at senior levels who will privately praise the way the UK government has handled this, but you'll find plenty who are agast at the way the EU has gone about it. from what i can gather - conversations with people at a senior level, or working for them, reading blogs, seeing what hacks are saying, the 'deep states' view is that the EU is going about the thing in the way most likely to see it fail - and quite deliberately.

thirdly it ignores what pretty much every politician has grasped, that the economic and other downsides to brexit are as nothing to the political and societal downsides of a stitch-up to prevent brexit.

 

[Silas Loom]

thirdly it ignores what pretty much every politician has grasped, that the economic and other downsides to brexit are as nothing to the political and societal downsides of a stitch-up to prevent brexit.

That's a very large claim. I'd suggest that Caring about Brexit is the preserve of a small minority, while caring about food on the shelves and the affordability of public services is mainstream.

Yes, there would be demos. They would likely be largely peaceful. The UKIP vote would be a complicating factor in every constituency again - but not in Westminster.

Most people wouldn't give much of a toss. Many people would believe that Brexit had happened, even after BINO.

 

[Wilf]

thirdly it ignores what pretty much every politician has grasped, that the economic and other downsides to brexit are as nothing to the political and societal downsides of a stitch-up to prevent brexit.

In yesterday's LBC interview, you could see Theresa May's brain had a few neural pathways that stopped her saying she would vote for brexit today. In some kind of science fiction, 'press this button and breixt goes away with no consequences for you of the party' she'd fall on it. Trouble is, in the absence of such a button, she's stuck, as you say.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

I think the EU is mostly worried about the loss of UK £6.5bill net annual contribution. Without that the other few net contributor countries will have to pay more which will most likely increase still further EU dissent within those countries. So whether we leave or not the EU will demand an annual cost of around that amount for any continued access to EU market. Unless the EU capitulate a long way from this it is difficult to see how any deal is possible.

As for Tory 'friends' & financial backers leaning on the party to see sense I wonder if any of the current crop apart from perhaps Hammond are actually on the bankers & industrialists party invite list? I'm sure Cameron & Osborne were & also Blair & Brown before them but it's difficult to imagine the likes of Carney etc regarding the likes of Johnson etc with anything but utter contempt.

 

[kebabking]

I think the EU is mostly worried about the loss of UK £6.5bill net annual contribution...

i had believed that to be the case, but not anymore - but its, imv, more complex than that.

within the EU structures, i've come to the belief that its not the money thats the driving force, its the project. the determination is to show that the loss of the UK isn't a loss, its full steam ahead now the pesky brits have gone - and as evidence of this, look at the way the EU is expanding its remit into the defence sphere, its moved ahead quite significantly in a couple of areas in the short time since the UK lifted its veto, and as part of the project, i very much take the view that the UK must be seen to suffer as a result of the leaving the EU.

within the member states i think its much more about money and trade, Germany doesn't want the bill, France doesn't want to have to start paying its own farmers, but the member states (particularly the eastern member states) are, imv, willing to be much more flexible in order to keep the UK involved in NATO - they understand the political reality that if Romania, Poland, the Baltic states etc.. are the 'enemy' in a trade war with the UK, the UK is unlikely to keep sending its significant military deployments to the border with their troublesome neighbour.

i don't think there will be a deal, i think the UK will crash out in march 2019.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

It is difficult to see the present government lasting anywhere near to March '19 without some progress towards a sensible settlement. Surely the daily turmoil cannot continue that long? If there is another GE I can see Labour winning with some sort of majority which I'm sure urban will be mostly rooting for. What will happen then is anybodies guess. Labour seem to be carrying on their tack of attacking the Tories on anything but brexit. Today in parliment Jezza was on Universal credit.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

What I don't understand is why the party representing capital is not being heavily lent on by its mates in the financial sector in particular to sort this out ASAP.

Because in spite of all the doom mongering, business will do very nicely from the UK leaving with no deal. Generally business would rather continue with the status quo, but in the absence of that a no deal is the most profitable option.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

It is difficult to see the present government lasting anywhere near to March '19 without some progress towards a sensible settlement. Surely the daily turmoil cannot continue that long?

It can continue for that long, the EU won’t do a deal until we go, then it will be a scramble on both sides to sort something out, but they stand to lose more than we do, that’s not to say we won’t lose out too, cos we will, but the EU bods don’t care about people and business, The Project is everything to them.

 

[Riklet]

My Dad told me 50,000 turn out on the anti-Brexit march he went to in Manchester. Middle-class, jolly, well-behaved and so on, obviously, lols. Major police presence, taking photos and all (total cunts as per) but no one could even be bothered to shout at them or oppose them.

Definitely don't see any sign of a political swing effect against Brexit yet. Not while Labour looks like a government in waiting with a far more interesting economic plan for the country in terms of addressing inequality and what people want/need than what continued membership of the EU seems to offer.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Because in spite of all the doom mongering, business will do very nicely from the UK leaving with no deal. Generally business would rather continue with the status quo, but in the absence of that a no deal is the most profitable option.

"No deal" is catastrophic for the UK. For the people who live here anyway.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

"No deal" is catastrophic for the UK. For the people who live here anyway.

It really isn’t quite the doomsday scenario that some people are painting it to be, I suspect that those telling us the sky will fall in have an agenda one way in the same way that those who tell us it will be rice AND chips for tea have theirs. The reality will be somewhere in between and no worse for yer average person than these past 7 years of austerity.

 

[Pickman's model]

It really isn’t quite the doomsday scenario that some people are painting it to be, I suspect that those telling us the sky will fall in have an agenda one way in the same way that those who tell us it will be rice AND chips for tea have theirs. The reality will be somewhere in between and no worse for yer average person than these past 7 years of austerity.

Mean mode or median?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Mean mode or median?

Mod.

Zoot-suits for everybody come March 2019!

 

[redsquirrel]

The EU can let themselves be magnanimous - they would much rather the UK was part of the EU - (big economy, important market, disruptive influence if outside the EU, useful military strength etc etc ) and may consider the UKs self inflicted humiliation as enough punishment - lesson sent to other countries, whilst not wishing to fuel anti-EU resentment (avoiding a sort of watered re-run of the treaty of Versailles).

I can buy the idea that certain members of the cabinet/government/opposition would be perfectly happy with the scenario you outlined, but I can't it happening. First I think there's enough people in the Tory party that are determined to push ahead they won't just stand on the sidelines, but more importantly it would make the party of the government that backed down absolutely toxic.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I can buy the idea that certain members of the cabinet/government/opposition would be perfectly happy with the scenario you outlined, but I can't it happening. First I think there's enough people in the Tory party that are determined to push ahead they won't just stand on the sidelines, but more importantly it would make the party of the government that backed down absolutely toxic.

But if the only alternative is a cliff edge brexit? As someone argued above - all the options seem impossible - but one has got to happen. I'd say the forces lined up against "no deal" are too strong - it includes half the cabinet for starters. The tories are fucked whatever they do.

 

[kebabking]

... I'd say the forces lined up against "no deal" are too strong - it includes half the cabinet for starters. The tories are fucked whatever they do.

I disagree, I think the overwhelming view within the Tory party, and within mainstream politics, is that Brexit has to be delivered regardless of virtues or consequences - and that that is a genuinely held moral standpoint, and that it's held even by a majority who's preference was for remain.

The political view, imv, is that you might electorally survive fucking up something difficult if what you were trying to do was at the behest of the electorate, but that you won't electorally survive if you ignore the electorate regardless of what sunlit uplands you provide.

Effectively, that the party that fails to provide Brexit, almost regardless of what it costs, gets to be Neville Chamberlain for the next 50 years.

 

[Teaboy]

I have six close friends from school days (a long time ago). Three of them have partners who are from EU countries, two of which are married with children. All this cavalier talk of no deal is very worrying for them to say the least. Its all very well saying something will be done, but nothing has happened yet and this shit show is horrible for them.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I disagree, I think the overwhelming view within the Tory party, and within mainstream politics, is that Brexit has to be delivered regardless of virtues or consequences -

I agree with you up to the "regardless of consequences" bit. I think what is happening is the realisation that any sort of deal is going to fiendishly difficult to pull off. The EU are not going to make any meaningful concessions and hard brexit is looming.

You will struggle to find anyone who thinks a crash will not cause severe pain - the fringe nut jobs see this as a golden opportunity, but everyone else - including many/most tory mps - think it will be a disaster.

"No deal" would be resisted by parliament. A chunk of tory mps will rebel. I dont think the DUP would support it either. May and Hammand dont want "no deal" - they didn;t even vote for brexit in the first place.
I think they are now trying to negotiate a way out of the dilemma.

And if both the EU and UK accept that A50 is reversible (and - as i have argued - the EU has good reasons to go along with that) - then that presents an escape route. Yes - its political suicide - but the government is now in a position of looking at a choice of political suicides.

In fact - thinking about it - the EU's position all along may have been to force the UK to back out of A50 and come crawling back. Its the same as what they did with Greece.