Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I still think no brexit is probably the most likely eventual outcome, on balance. But I get a sense that the EU is increasingly warming to the idea of a CETA (Canada) type arrangement with the UK. Barnier seems to have been suggesting this recently. The main risk for them in this is that it would increase the cost of banking in the UK and Eurozone business would not be able to extricate itself. But there was an interview yesterday on France 24 with someone from Frankfurt, who was the CEO of some sort of city corporation. He may well have had reason to talk things up a bit, but he was saying he had a queue of international banks with their relocation plans all worked out and ready to go. If that's reflective at all of the reality, then you can see why it might be looking like an attractive scenario from their perspective.

Have you met many city bankers?

They are British, American, South African, Australian and then French, German and so on.

The first four on the list have no desire at all to relocate themselves and their families to Germany, or France, or Switzerland. They don't speak the language and are not familiar with the culture.

Of course banks are moving their EU operations out of London, but their core operations are going nowhere.

Besides, if the bankers did all fuck off, good riddence.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Anyway, an anti-Brexit march in town again today, what do these berks think they can possibly achieve?

 

[Yossarian]

They've taken a lesson from the Brexit campaign: Real change is possible, but sometime you have to grumble for 40 years first.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Besides, if the bankers did all fuck off, good riddence.

This is the key point. London would be a much better place without them.

 

[Raheem]

Have you met many city bankers?

They are British, American, South African, Australian and then French, German and so on.

The first four on the list have no desire at all to relocate themselves and their families to Germany, or France, or Switzerland. They don't speak the language and are not familiar with the culture.

Of course banks are moving their EU operations out of London, but their core operations are going nowhere.

Besides, if the bankers did all fuck off, good riddence.

I don't claim to know what's on the minds of bank directors, but I've never heard anyone suggest that the whole of the CoL is going to get up and walk over the channel overnight. Clearly, the biggest players would only move some of their operations out of London, at least in the first instance. It might not be so easy, though, for banks headquartered outside Europe for whom London is an outpost. In any event, I don't think the EU27 need to be realistically looking at taking over the whole of the UK financial sector in order to make the prospect appetising.

I'm not all that fussed about whether London will be better without so many bankers or not, because I don't live there. All I'm thinking of is what the calculations of the EU negotiating team will be. If they believe that they can realistically expect a big enough increase in banking capacity within the Eurozone, then the problems with not having banking covered in a Brexit agreement are greatly diminished, from their perspective. And they are undoubtedly increasingly in a good position to know fairly accurately how things will turn out.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I don't claim to know what's on the minds of bank directors, but I've never heard anyone suggest that the whole of the CoL is going to get up and walk over the channel overnight. Clearly, the biggest players would only move some of their operations out of London, at least in the first instance. It might not be so easy, though, for banks headquartered outside Europe for whom London is an outpost. In any event, I don't think the EU27 need to be realistically looking at taking over the whole of the UK financial sector in order to make the prospect appetising.

I'm not all that fussed about whether London will be better without so many bankers or not, because I don't live there. All I'm thinking of is what the calculations of the EU negotiating team will be. If they believe that they can realistically expect a big enough increase in banking capacity within the Eurozone, then the problems with not having banking covered in a Brexit agreement are greatly diminished, from their perspective. And they are undoubtedly increasingly in a good position to know fairly accurately how things will turn out.

Just saying, when you see some smug prick in Frankfurt or Paris claiming to be mopping up the UK's banking business, that's bullshit. For better or worse.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Just saying, when you see some smug prick in Frankfurt or Paris claiming to be mopping up the UK's banking business, that's bullshit. For better or worse.

Sadly I think you're right. Destroying a chunk of the UK's financial sector would be a huge plus from brexit, but sadly it's not going to happen.

 

[Raheem]

Just saying, when you see some smug prick in Frankfurt or Paris claiming to be mopping up the UK's banking business, that's bullshit. For better or worse.

I guess time will tell, but I really don't see how you can be confident of that. The pricks in Paris don't seem so smug. They seem to be saying that Frankfurt is running rings around them and getting all the interest. That suggests to me that there's something real going on.

 

[Poi E]

Just saying, when you see some smug prick in Frankfurt or Paris claiming to be mopping up the UK's banking business, that's bullshit. For better or worse.

Just going on what a lawyer was saying who works for banking and finance companies; things are looking up even if it's only a small bit of business. And expat packages for top personnel and their families make cultural differences less of an issue. International schools etc. Earning ££££ minimises the stress!

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Anyway, an anti-Brexit march in town again today, what do these berks think they can possibly achieve?

Perhaps they are raising awareness/expressing solidarity, all those useful things?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Perhaps they are raising awareness/expressing solidarity, all those useful things?

Raising awareness that white, middle class guardian readers don't want Brexit? Or expressing solidarity in a way they couldn't be fucked to when it came to public service pay being screwed over, or any other fucking cause except wanting to stay in the fucking EU? Heroes one and all.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Raising awareness that white, middle class guardian readers don't want Brexit? Or expressing solidarity in a way they couldn't be fucked to when it came to public service pay being screwed over, or any other fucking cause except wanting to stay in the fucking EU? Heroes one and all.

lol. "My name is Bahnhof Strasse and I am *projecting*"

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Just going on what a lawyer was saying who works for banking and finance companies; things are looking up even if it's only a small bit of business. And expat packages for top personnel and their families make cultural differences less of an issue. International schools etc. Earning ££££ minimises the stress!

A significant % of my customers are companies that raise funds for large infrastructure projects, £1bn for a dam or power station in Africa, that kind of thing. These types of businesses are still flocking to London and the amount of businesses of this type we deal with has doubled in the past 12 months, the largest two have moved here from Luxembourg as their Swedish senior personal couldn't stand the place and did not want their kids to go to school there and also cos of the way that Luxembourg's advantages are shortly to be wiped out. They could have gone to Frankfurt, they are EU citizens themselves, but they have chosen to come here and pay my mortgage off instead, could be cos I'm such a nice guy, they may have more solid business reasons for that choice...

 

[Raheem]

Sadly I think you're right. Destroying a chunk of the UK's financial sector would be a huge plus from brexit, but sadly it's not going to happen.

Destroying a chunk of the UK's financial sector sounds great. If it's merely going to be displaced, though, it's harder to see the net gain.

 

[Pickman's model]

This is the key point. London would be a much better place without them.

Yeh
This is where you make out you're all radical ignoring that about 95% of the people who work in the city but aren't bankers.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

lol. "My name is Bahnhof Strasse and I am *projecting*"

From their own fucking bleating-rag:

Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London

Among the largely white, often self-admittedly middle class crowd, the raw emotion and despondency of many remainers was all too evident

But do carry on with your ill-informed *projecting*

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I'm glad she's sad, her dreams of working double shifts on the fry station at McShits in Bucharest have just been stolen from her...

 

[Pickman's model]

View attachment 115381


I'm glad she's sad, her dreams of working double shifts on the fry station at McShits in Bucharest have just been stolen from her...

It's another makeup fail. Andorians don't look like that at all

An andorian recently

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

From their own fucking bleating-rag:

Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London



But do carry on with your ill-informed *projecting*

Not me who facilitates the international flow of capital, brother

A significant % of my customers are companies that raise funds for large infrastructure projects, £1bn for a dam or power station in Africa, that kind of thing. These types of businesses are still flocking to London and the amount of businesses of this type we deal with has doubled in the past 12 months, the largest two have moved here from Luxembourg as their Swedish senior personal couldn't stand the place and did not want their kids to go to school there and also cos of the way that Luxembourg's advantages are shortly to be wiped out. They could have gone to Frankfurt, they are EU citizens themselves, but they have chosen to come here and pay my mortgage off instead, could be cos I'm such a nice guy, they may have more solid business reasons for that choice...

Fight the power.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Ah, you're just confused. As you were then.

 

[Poi E]

A significant % of my customers are companies that raise funds for large infrastructure projects, £1bn for a dam or power station in Africa, that kind of thing. These types of businesses are still flocking to London and the amount of businesses of this type we deal with has doubled in the past 12 months, the largest two have moved here from Luxembourg as their Swedish senior personal couldn't stand the place and did not want their kids to go to school there and also cos of the way that Luxembourg's advantages are shortly to be wiped out. They could have gone to Frankfurt, they are EU citizens themselves, but they have chosen to come here and pay my mortgage off instead, could be cos I'm such a nice guy, they may have more solid business reasons for that choice...

My companies' customers are all major banking and financial institutions (we're in payments), so we get a fair insight, too.

 

[8den]

H
Besides, if the bankers did all fuck off, good riddence.

I'm sure the tens of thousands of cleaners, waiting staff, dry cleaners, restaurants, mini cab firms etc, will share your delight at this sudden good fortune.

(Being slightly facetious, the point is, if London loses even a sizeable chunk of its banking centre a lot of low-income tertiary people are going to suffer quite badly in at least the short term).

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Ah, you're just confused. As you were then.

Fair enough, I do find things to be almost impossibly complex sometimes, and struggle to articulate

But i'm not clear why you were so antagonistic to those people who marched? How are they different from you in any meaningful way? This is an honest question btw

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Fair enough, I do find things to be almost impossibly complex sometimes, and struggle to articulate

But i'm not clear why you were so antagonistic to those people who marched? How are they different from you in any meaningful way? This is an honest question btw

They are selfish scumbags who believe poor people deserve to be poor in equal measure to themselves deserving to be comfortably off. Liberals.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

They are selfish scumbags who believe poor people deserve to be poor in equal measure to themselves deserving to be comfortably off. Liberals.

Oh. OK. All of them? I'm sure you know best.

 

[sealion]

From their own fucking bleating-rag:

Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London

Among the largely white, often self-admittedly middle class crowd, the raw emotion and despondency of many remainers was all too evident

 

[J Ed]

View attachment 115381


I'm glad she's sad, her dreams of working double shifts on the fry station at McShits in Bucharest have just been stolen from her...

More like the dreams of others doing low paid work in exploitative conditions.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Destroying a chunk of the UK's financial sector sounds great. If it's merely going to be displaced, though, it's harder to see the net gain.

Oh, I'm merely speaking selfishly. If a chunk of the banking sector in London fucked off, London would be a much easier and more pleasant place to live in for the rest of us.

There is much hype about how much they contribute to the economy but we would survive just fine without them. To those bemoaning the low-paid service jobs that would disappear, new opportunities to do stuff would appear - other people who've been priced out of London would be able to reoccupy the places they formerly used to live in and make businesses in. It's not like low-paid service workers are paid more by rich bankers than other people who are less rich and want the same or similar services. They're not, and what they are paid goes less far with inflated prices and pressures.

 

[J Ed]

Oh, I'm merely speaking selfishly. If a chunk of the banking sector in London fucked off, London would be a much easier and more pleasant place to live in for the rest of us.

There is much hype about how much they contribute to the economy but we would survive just fine without them. To those bemoaning the low-paid service jobs that would disappear, new opportunities to do stuff would appear - other people who've been priced out of London would be able to reoccupy the places they formerly used to live in and make businesses in. It's not like low-paid service workers are paid more by rich bankers than other people who are less rich and want the same or similar services. They're not, and what they are paid goes less far with inflated prices and pressures.

Of course when the next crisis and bailout comes, or doesn't, we wouldn't be collectively held hostage by the vested interests which demand our ever accelerating immiseration.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Of course when the next crisis and bailout comes, or doesn't, we wouldn't be collectively held hostage by the vested interests which demand our ever accelerating immiseration.

Yep. and that. It's all win.