thought it might be timely to resurrect this thread seeing as we've had a General election since then, A50 has been triggered and negotiations have started.
On balance - i think i still stick to the opinion that it is not going to happen - its fiendishly complex and more and more problems are being thrown up.
Delivering brexit would be tricky enough with a strong, effective government that was firmly in control of the agenda, a united country and popular support.
But instead it is being led a weak, bitterly divided government led by a lame duck leader with little authority. It is opposed by large sections of the business, manufacturing and banking sector and the senior civil service. The academic and cultural sectors are implacably opposed. The public is split down the middle. The majority of MPs are opposed and – whilst they may feel bound by the result – the narrowness of the “leave” victory make that commitment questionable. Then there is the constitutional dogs dinner it serves up in northern Ireland and – potentially – Scotland.
The negotiations are also undermined by the fact that any positions taken by the UK are undermined by the threat of a leadership challenge to May, cabinet shenanigans and very unstable parliamentary arithmetic
I just don't think it politically possible to get any sort of deal that isn't quite shit and a Hard Brexit crash out will be vigorously opposed by just about everyone bar a few dozen tory headbangers and the the Daily Mail.
Potential scenario - A long-grass-tastic Transitional arrangement followed by a humiliating climbdown and toxic political repercussions ("stab in the back" anyone?).
Cant help thinking that the last election was the perfect result for labour - all the fun of humiliating the tories followed by the luxury of standing on the side lines watching the vermin have to eat up the big pile of steaming Brexit from the political carpet.
