Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Poi E]

Nuke'em from Butler Brothers.

 

[SpookyFrank]

monopoly

Fucking tiddlywinks more like.

 

[andysays]

Disappointed no-one's mentioned Beggar My Neighbour yet

 

[danny la rouge]

Disappointed no-one's mentioned Beggar My Neighbour yet

Mentioned here.

 

[agricola]

Government defeat over Grieve's amendment 7. Not really a surprise given how the debate went, he pretty much destroyed the front bench this afternoon.

 

[killer b]

309 to 305 though. Sweet.

 

[agricola]

309 to 305 though. Sweet.

They'd have lost that by triple figures on a free vote.

 

[killer b]

A close defeat is more disappointing for the scum though. They thought they'd got it over the line.

 

[agricola]

A close defeat is more disappointing for the scum though. They thought they'd got it over the line.

Open season on whoever rebelled, probably - especially Grieve, who will get no reward for what was probably his finest hour in the Commons.

 

[bemused]

I'm not sure what they have won. If they vote no on the deal what happens then, we leave with no deal?

 

[William of Walworth]

bimble

BBC basic outline of it here, if that helps?

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Open season on whoever rebelled, probably - especially Grieve, who will get no reward for what was probably his finest hour in the Commons.

Impressive performance. "Now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational Queen's Counsel etc etc"

 

[MightyTibberton]

Sorry for the Twitter sourcing but it's being suggested - quoting Oliver Letwin - that it means they can stop Brexit by voting that they can't leave with no deal, but that they deal on offer is no good (so, presumably go back and get a better one) meaning, practically that the government can't leave.

 

[MightyTibberton]

 

[MightyTibberton]

It's also made Nigel "Roy Moore" Farage very unhappy. Oh dear.

 

[bemused]

[..]practically that the government can't leave.

Not voting for the deal isn't the same as not leaving. I think if I were May I'd tell my party if you don't vote for the deal I'm calling a general election, then fuck off and leave them too it.

 

[killer b]

A general election is the most likely result of a deal being voted down anyway tbf.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not voting for the deal isn't the same as not leaving. I think if I were May I'd tell my party if you don't vote for the deal I'm calling a general election, then fuck off and leave them too it.

and if i were her party i'd say go on then

being in government rather a poisoned chalice atm

 

[MightyTibberton]

They can vote against an offered deal and also vote against no-deal exit meaning there is no leaving.

I'm no expert on this - at all - I'm just passing on the argument which has been shared by a QC who seems to think it's right.

I reckon it is pretty likely we'll get a general election as some sort of stand-in for a second referendum now. Oh what joy that will be!

 

[MightyTibberton]

and if i were her party i'd say go on then

being in government rather a poisoned chalice atm

Indeed! I'm really not sure what Labour is supposed to do at the moment. . . maybe free votes on Brexit stuff? My MP (Jo Stevens in Cardiff) has voted to support Remain stuff saying that's how her constituency voted.

Referendums are stupid ideas. Thanks David Cameron!

 

[Pickman's model]

Referendums are stupid ideas. Thanks David Cameron!

and tony blair

 

[MightyTibberton]

Bloody hell, curse my attention span! Yep, I'd forgotten them. . .

I think the Brexit one was particularly stupid though.

 

[bemused]

They can vote against an offered deal and also vote against no-deal exit meaning there is no leaving.

I'm no expert on this - at all - I'm just passing on the argument which has been shared by a QC who seems to think it's right.

I reckon it is pretty likely we'll get a general election as some sort of stand-in for a second referendum now. Oh what joy that will be!

Be interest to read views if what happens if the two-year timer ends with no deal.

50.1 reads as we exit at the end of two years, deal or no deal. Extending it is just a slow death if the Parliment votes it down every time.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

 

[MightyTibberton]

I think the argument is that they can - with a "meaningful vote" - revoke article 50.

To be honest, any views I have beyond that (wot I red on Twitter) is not in any way encumbered by personal knowledge!

 

[MightyTibberton]

Worth going to the tweet here...

There's a bit more on the arguments in the replies.

 

[sealion]

There is no leave. The political classes will see to that .

 

[bemused]

Worth going to the tweet here...


There's a bit more on the arguments in the replies.

That's good stuff. We could end up with an accept the deal or stay in EU referendum. Depends on how much of a risk taker May wants to be. Given that she'll not be leader at the next GE she may as well start playing hardball.

 

[MightyTibberton]

That's good stuff. We could end up with an accept the deal or stay in EU referendum. Depends on how much of a risk taker May wants to be. Given that she'll not be leader at the next GE she may as well start playing hardball.

Apparently they've already sacked one of the rebel Tory MPs from his job - a chairman of the party.

 

[DotCommunist]

Referendums are stupid ideas

they are the only time the electorate is asked a straight question tbf.

 

[MightyTibberton]

they are the only time the electorate is asked a straight question tbf.

I can see the attraction of that, but there aren't any simple questions to be asked and you end up with a binary choice and now we have years of rows about what leaving the EU actually means - the single market? the customs union? the court? just the EU?...

Independence referendums (referenda?) might be a different case as I can't see an alternative.

How does Switzerland do it? Don't they have them quite often?