*IRAQ: latest news and developments

[Badger Kitten]

Has everyone seen this?

What I heard about Iraq in 2005
Eliot Weinberger
In 2005 I heard that Coalition forces were camped in the ruins of Babylon...

 

[laptop]

Has everyone seen this?

No. Thanks.

Everyone should read that... and I'm only halfway through.

And a happy New Year to you nevertheless...

 

[oi2002]

U.S. Has End in Sight on Iraq Rebuilding

The Bush administration does not intend to seek any new funds for Iraq reconstruction in the budget request going before Congress in February, officials say. The decision signals the winding down of an $18.4 billion U.S. rebuilding effort in which roughly half of the money was eaten away by the insurgency, a buildup of Iraq's criminal justice system and the investigation and trial of Saddam Hussein.

 

[Barking_Mad]

No. Thanks.

Everyone should read that... and I'm only halfway through.

I heard a US soldier talk about his photographs of the 12 prisoners he had shot with a machine-gun: ‘I shot this guy in the face. See, his head is split open. I shot this guy in the groin. He took three days to bleed to death.’ I heard him say he was a devout Christian: ‘Well, I knelt down. I said a prayer, stood up, and gunned them all down.’

 

[oi2002]

Steve Clemons has an interesting piece comparing the American efforts in Iraq and post war Japan.

The lesson here regarding Iraq is that we have tilted the political system towards Iran-leaning Shia theocrats, much like America did with communists and socialists in Japan. While America deployed a systematic purge of war-making and war-promoting intellectuals, business leaders, and politicians in Japan, it figured out a way to rebrand competent conservatives who could be counted on to serve in government. In contrast, America has simply booted out all former Baathists, even those who wore that distinction lightly and were drawn to serve in government no matter the regime.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Fox News's coverage of these two attacks below only covered the second of them where 3 tankers were destroyed. The first where 20 or so were blown up was not mentioned.......

Update on convoy attack

"The convoy left Baiji and was on its way to Baghdad when it came under fire. So far we know 20 have been destroyed," an oil industry official said. The statement did not mention casualties and the Oil Ministry said only one tanker had been destroyed.

Three tankers torcher north of Baghdad

In a separate attack in the afternoon, rebels torched three tanker trucks just north of Baghdad.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Separate attacks kill Iraqi policeman, soldier

In the capital, gunmen in separate incidents killed a former army captain. In Aziziyah, 35 miles southeast of Baghdad, gunmen fired on a police patrol, killing one policeman, Hadi al-Itabi of the Kut morgue said.

Iraqi violence kills two civilians

Gunmen in Mosul attacked the political offices of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, killing a civilian, Dr. Bahaldin al-Bakri said. A roadside bomb in Baqouba killed a woman, the Diyala police said.

Iraqi soldier killed in Latifiya

An Iraqi soldier was killed and two wounded when a bomb went off near their patrol in Latifiya, in an area dubbed the "Triangle of Death" south of Baghdad, an army source said.

Makeshift bomb wounds two Iraqi policemen in Iakandariya

Two Iraqi policemen were wounded on Tuesday when a makeshift bomb went off near their patrol in Iskandariya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

Two Iraqi police commandos killed in mortar attack

Two police commandos were killed and nine others wounded when mortar rounds landed on their checkpoint in western Baghdad, hospital source said.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Two Iraqi security guards killed in Baghdad

Two guards of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of one of Iraq's most powerful Shi'ite political parties, were shot dead on Tuesday while attending a funeral in southern Baghdad, police said.

Two bodies found west of Baghdad

The bodies of two people, bound, gagged and shot dead, were found in Mahawil, about 75 km west of Bagdhad, police said.

8 dead in Baghdad car blast

At least eight people were killed and 12 wounded when a car bomb exploded in southern Baghdad. The car was parked close to a busy commercial market in the Doura district, they said. Earlier, three people were killed when a car bomb went off...

Iraqi policeman killed in Baghdad during firefight

in the western part of Baghdad, police became involved in a half-hour firefight with insurgents. One policeman was killed and 16 other officers injured.

Iraq bomber attacks Shi'ite funeral, kills 36 (update)

A suicide bomber killed 36 people and wounded 40 at a Shi'ite funeral on Wednesday and a car bomb exploded in the lately peaceful holy city of Kerbala, ratcheting up tension between Iraq's Muslim sects.

Car bomb in Iraqi city of Kerbala wounds three

A car bomb exploded in the southern Iraqi city of Kerbala today, injuring at least three people and damaging four cars, police said. Insurgent attacks are rare in Kerbala--It was the first car bomb to explode in Kerbala since December 2004

 

[Barking_Mad]

US air strike hits Iraqi family

Women's and children's bodies have been pulled from the rubble
Several members of the same family, including women and children, have been killed in a US air strike that destroyed their home in northern Iraq.
There was confusion over the number of casualties, but local authorities in the town of Beiji, north of Tikrit, have confirmed at least six dead.

US forces said they acted after seeing three men suspected of planting a roadside bomb enter the house.

The raid has prompted anger among some local political leaders.

 

[oi2002]

The conservative chaps at Cato questioning Dubya's assertions that AQ could dominate Iraq if the US withdrew:

We can get a sense of Sunni Arab views toward Al-Qaeda by looking at other countries in the region. In a recent survey conducted in six Arab nations for Zogby International by Shibley Telhami, an expert on Arab public opinion, only 7 percent of respondents supported Al-Qaeda's methods, and only 6 percent supported Al-Qaeda's goal of creating a Muslim state. On the other hand, the number-one reason respondents sympathized with Al-Qaeda was because the organization was seen as standing up to the U.S.

 

[Barking_Mad]

At least 134 killed in attacks across Iraq

In the deadliest day in Iraq in nearly four months, at least 134 people were killed and scores were wounded in separate insurgent-bomb attacks, authorities said Thursday.

In Ramadi, 80 people were killed and dozens wounded when a bomber detonated near an Iraqi police recruitment and screening drive, according to a U.S. Marine news release.

About 1,000 people were waiting in line to apply for positions on the reconstituted Iraqi police force, officials said.

Ramadi is the capital of Anbar province, where, just before the elections, U.S. and Iraqi military forces conducted several operations aimed at rooting out a strong insurgency there.

A blast in Karbala, a Shiite holy city, killed 45 people and wounded dozens more on Thursday morning in a pedestrian mall that runs between the Imam Hussien and Imam Abbas holy shrines, police spokesman Rahman Mishawi said.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Iraq pipeline watch - various incidents. Interesting about the rioting in Kirkuk due to fuel shortages...

Iraq Pipeline Watch: #289
January 4 - Rahim Ali Sudani, a director-general at the oil ministry, and his son were killed in a drive-by attack on their car.

01/05/06 Iraq Pipeline Watch: #288
January 4 - a rocket-propelled grenade attack destroyed at least 18 fuel tankers in a convoy of 60 heading to Baghdad from Bayji.

01/05/06 Iraq Pipeline Watch: #287
287. January 1 - riots broke out in Kirkuk. Hundreds of demonstrators, protesting fuel shortages, set two gas stations and offices belonging to the national oil company on fire.

01/05/06 Iraq Pipeline Watch: #286
January 1 - attack on pipeline supplying petroleum products to a power plant near the Daura refinery cut capacity at the plant to 30%.

01/05/06 Iraq Pipeline Watch: #285
January 1 - a bomb exploded near a gas station near Daura. Three civilians were injured.

01/05/06 Iraq Pipeline Watch: #284
December 24 - attack on a pipeline in Jurf Sakher area on the outskirts of Hillah, 60 miles south of Baghdad.

01/05/06 Iraq Pipeline Watch: #283
December 21 - the Bayji refinery was shut after insurgents threatened truck drivers transporting petrol.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Seven US soldiers killed in Iraq

Five U.S. soldiers were killed when a roadside bomb hit their vehicle while on patrol in Baghdad on Thursday, the U.S. military said. Another two American soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb near the southern Iraqi city of Najaf.

 

[oi2002]

Anthony Cordesman CSIS takes the "red team" view on the rebellion.

He's also got a piece on the elections. Mahan Abedin over at Jamestown also looks at the elections:

While the elections were held successfully and the political process in Iraq now seems irreversible, there is also little doubt that the country is being steadily transformed into an Islamic state. The “Islamization” of Iraq is taking place at all levels, but most noticeably at the very top where the new Iraqi parliament is poised to be dominated by Shi’ite and Sunni Islamists. The former are backed by Iran and the latter are inspired and backed by the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist forces in the Arab world.

The irreversibility of the political process notwithstanding, the scope and intensity of the insurgency is unlikely to diminish in the foreseeable future. In fact, as the political stakes rise in Iraq, there will be a greater temptation on both sides of the sectarian divide to stage sensational attacks on U.S. interests in Iraq, on a par with the October 1983 bombing of the Marines HQ in Beirut.

The best option for the United States is to resist calls for an early withdrawal and continue with the training of the new Iraqi army. It is this army which will contain the jihadi threat in Iraq after the U.S. leaves the country. As for the broader insurgency, this will only diminish when the Shi’ite and Sunni Islamists begin to agree on the details of power and influence sharing in the new Iraq.

 

[oi2002]

The Independant reports that some Iraqis are none too happy with the namby pamby Yankees:

The Americans are blamed for hampering the counter-insurgency - an accusation which began after the US authorities criticised abuse by Shia-controlled government forces and freed dozens of prisoners who had been mistreated in an Interior Ministry bunker.

The Shia demonstrators chanted slogans against the US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and Sunni leaders such as Adnan al-Dulaimi and Saleh al-Mutlaq, saying, "No no to Zalmay. No, no to terrorism" and "Yes, yes to the Interior Ministry".

Several Shia clerics used the Friday prayers to call for action. At the Khadimiyah mosque in Baghdad, Imam Hazim Araji, holding a Kalashnikov rifle aloft, said in his address to 5,000 worshippers: "How long can we remain silent? Terrorists are pampered in Iraq."

 

[oi2002]

Juan has an interesting observation:

Iraqi guerrillas were especially upset about the bombing of potential police recruits in Ramadi, since some of the men belonged to the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement. The guerrillas had given them permission to enlist under a secret agreement they had reached with the Americans via the mediation of tribal chieftains, stipulating that the guerrillas would dominate the security services, the police and army in the Sunni Arab provinces, as an element in an over-all settlement. The guerrillas would be able to place their men in the security services of Anbar, Salahuddin and Ninevah provinces. In return for their accepting this deal, the Sunni Arab guerrillas would also get the release of their commanders from American prisons, along with the release of some Baathist prisoners from the former regime.

Almost certainly Khalizad's doing and a very sensible move. This is a bit like the unspoken bit of the GFA were 6C paramilitaries stopped annoying London in return the British State turning a blind eye to their criminal activities as pillars of the community. Seems macho DC can be just as pragmatic as limp wristed London.

 

[oi2002]

LA Times on the danger of a coup ending Iraqi democracy.

Before the war, when foreign policy experts warned Bush that Iraq was ungovernable, they did not literally mean that the country could not be governed. Rather, they meant that ruling Iraq for any length of time, with any level of stability, requires an iron fist.

The experts were right. Washington still confronts the same dilemma that it has faced all along. It can install a dictator to rule Iraq after U.S. troops leave, or it can leave behind a situation — perhaps even a nascent democracy — that will ultimately yield chaos, coups and then a dictator.

Iraq no longer has a unified army officer corps that could launch a coup, it is divided along ethnic and sectarian lines. The countries is now so fragmented a warlord situation like China in the 20s is more likely, with militias based Army units declaring a permanent state of emergency.

 

[oi2002]

Z Big in WaPo on recommends moving the goal post as far as is necessary to declare victory:

"Victory or defeat" is, in fact, a false strategic choice. In using this formulation, the president would have the American people believe that their only options are either "hang in and win" or "quit and lose." But the real, practical choice is this: "persist but not win" or "desist but not lose."

Victory, as defined by the administration and its supporters -- i.e., a stable and secular democracy in a unified Iraqi state, with the insurgency crushed by the American military assisted by a disciplined, U.S.-trained Iraqi national army -- is unlikely. The U.S. force required to achieve it would have to be significantly larger than the present one, and the Iraqi support for a U.S.-led counterinsurgency would have to be more motivated. The current U.S. forces (soon to be reduced) are not large enough to crush the anti-American insurgency or stop the sectarian Sunni-Shiite strife. Both problems continue to percolate under an inconclusive but increasingly hated foreign occupation.

In truth Z Big is deluding himself. The war was lost last January when the Shi'a religous parties trounced DC's guys. DC should show a little moral courage and face up to it. It's time for bending the knee and begging the neighbours to help prevent WWIII.

 

[Binkie]

I think the lesson is: Don't do things like Desert Storm 1.

 

[Bigdavalad]

I think the lesson is: Don't do things like Desert Storm 1.

Not really, Desert Storm was an immaculately (sp?) planned and executed military operation, with minimal casualites for the coalition and huge losses for the enemy. It was as close to the perfect military campaign (as was Op Iraqi Freedom/Op Telic 1) as you can get.

However, now we're in a peace keeping/policing stage in Iraq and the US just aren't used to peace keeping ops, they're not trained for them and they don't have the right mindset for them.

The main lesson from Iraq (for the US) is don't approach peace keeping ops the same way as you approach war fighting ops.

 

[Binkie]

A military success for one side; 100,000 dead on the other - mostly conscripts. If you were a brother of one of those casualties, how would you feel? I suggest the support for terrorism increased from that point.

 

[nino_savatte]

This isn't a discussion thread, chaps: please check the thread title.

 

[Binkie]

Apologies.

 

[oi2002]

Very interesting piece by Stephen Zunes in FPIF on why Iraq was not a Zionist conspiracy:

To begin with, Iraq during the final years of Saddam Hussein's rule was no more of a threat to Israel than it was to the United States.
...
More fundamentally, there are far more powerful interests that have a stake in what happens in the Persian Gulf region than does AIPAC, such as the oil companies, the arms industry, and other special interests whose lobbying influence and campaign contributions far surpass that of the much-vaunted “Zionist lobby” and its allied donors to Congressional races.
...
To argue that support for Israel and/or pressure by supporters of Israel was a crucial variable in prompting the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq assumes that the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq has been good for Israel .

Evidence suggests strongly to the contrary, however. As cited above, in the years leading up to the March 2003 U.S. invasion, Iraq was no longer a strategic threat to Israel nor was it actively involved in anti-Israeli terrorism. In short, Israel had little to worry about Iraq during Saddam Hussein's final years in power. They do now, however.
...
Using Israel as an excuse for unpopular U.S. policies in the Middle East is nothing new, either. Over the past decade, I have had the opportunity to meet with a half dozen Arab foreign ministers and deputy foreign ministers and have asked each of them why their government was still so friendly with the United States, given U.S. policy toward the Palestinians, the Iraqis, and other Arabs. Every one has answered to the effect that U.S. officials had explained to them that the anti-Arab bias in U.S. foreign policy was not the fault of the U.S. government itself, but was the result of wealthy Jews who essentially ran U.S. foreign policy.
...
Indeed, that has largely been the functional purpose of anti-Semitism throughout Western history: to misdirect popular opposition to economic injustice, disastrous military campaigns, or other failures by political and economic elites onto a convenient and expendable target. It is critical, therefore, for people to resist—particularly those who identify with the peace movement—buying into this myth that it was Israel and its supporters who were responsible for the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.

 

[oi2002]

Speaking of Cabals. The Weekly Standard has a teaser for Jerry "disband the army" Bremer's new book. Rummie will not be best pleased.

 

[oi2002]

The Bulletin Of Atomic Scientists on Iraq's hot properties.

A troubling new report issued by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) in September 2005 ("DOD Should Evaluate Its Source Recovery Effort and Apply Lessons Learned to Future Recovery Missions"), suggests that the Iraq War may have elevated the dirty bomb threat by creating a window of opportunity for terrorists or others to steal from Iraq's unprotected inventory of thousands of radiological sources that were used in a variety of industrial, medical, and other applications.
...
What's especially frustrating about this mess is that the Defense Department knew prior to the invasion and occupation of Iraq that thousands of radiological sources were scattered across the country. Yet, the GAO concludes, the Pentagon "was not ready to collect and secure radiological sources in Iraq at the start of the hostilities in March 2003." As a result, during the first six months of the conflict, Defense provided no guidance to commanders in the field on how to collect and secure radiological sources. Troops did not have the proper equipment or training and were forced to improvise. Even Defense's 11-person Nuclear Disablement Team--sent to Iraq to deal with nuclear weapons facilities--lacked the proper equipment. The GAO described an instance where the team "had to move highly radioactive sources with an ice cooler that was lined with lead bricks."

 

[oi2002]

Brent Scowcroft redefines Success in Iraq WaPo

There are at least two elements essential to "success" in Iraq. The first is a central government that meets the needs of the people well enough to secure their sustained support, shows sufficient consideration for minority rights to win the loyalty of those minorities and demonstrates a credible determination to live in peace with its neighbors.

The second is an effective, highly disciplined military and security establishment that gives its allegiance not to various elements within Iraqi society but solely to the central government.

The fundamental question for the United States is what kind of policy is most likely to produce such an outcome and do so at a cost the American public is prepared to sustain. At the risk of oversimplification, it can be said that the "answers" proposed in the debate thus far fall into two broad categories. "Withdrawal" proposals range from immediate pullout to "setting a date certain." "Success" proposals range from "staying the course"(not clearly defined, but presumably meaning maintaining substantial forces in Iraq until the goals there have been achieved) to increasing the number of troops there.

 

[oi2002]

Larry Johnson takes a poke at Paul Bremer and quotes a interesting eMail.

These two folks have really "cracked the code" on this. I was told several weeks ago by European academic and Intelligence sources that a large scale infiltration of Iranian Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards) into Iraq was underway with the ultimate aim of pre-positioning Shia forces for the day when armed resistance against the US may be necessary. I subsequently mentioned this on Wolf Blitzer's "Late Edition" and the "Lehrer Newshour" as well as in a number of radio and newspaper interviews. I mention this because it should be pathetically obvious that if one FORMER intelligence person could know this, then the US government with its vast sources of knowledge should easily have known it. It seems that the government did not, or at least the policy people in the government did not.

Why is that?

The answer lies in a statement that was made to me this morning by a deeply bitter and now alienated Arab World Intelligence expert still serving in the US Government. "Hey," he said, "You can't inform people who already know it all." This man has given up on trying to tell the geo-strategic geniuses now running American foreign policy the hard truths of what the Islamic World is really like. Why? Because they won't listen. They seem to believe that the idiosyncratic cultures of the rest of the world are largely irrelevant and are merely nostalgic fictions dear to the hearts of area "Experts" who are invested in them and who are obstacles to the imposition of a "modern" culture and psyche modeled on that of the United States.

 

[Hanfstaengl]

Bird flu strikes on Iran Iraq Border

The bird flu might soften Iran up? Surely this is not some kind of biological warfare. We'll see over the next few days doubtless.


http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/876802C0-9D12-4C91-9C16-4F4B038E961C.htm

 

[clv101]

US Military Dead

I drew this graph around 8 months ago, here's an update. Click for a larger version.



It seems to me as if the current situation is untenable. Where's it leading? How long will the American public tolerate such losses (and financial expense) for a cause many see as questionable at best? How long does this number carry on increasing (at increasing rates) before something changes. The total dead is now over 2,300.

The current situation can't carry on forever, what will change it. A breakout of peace across the country? The Americans packing up at going home? The Americans (and others) with assistance from the Iraqi police/army creating security conditions that prevent successful attacks?

Where's it going?