*IRAQ: latest news and developments

[oi2002]

Pat Lang on the shrinking perimiter of the Green Zone with this comment:

An interesting contrast between Ms Wright's statement:

"The road between the airport and the Green Zone was officially considered safer, but we still flew in armed Black Hawks moving in diversionary patterns through the sky."

and the Secretary of State's statement:

"I suspect that the American forces are not going to be needed in the numbers that they are there for all that much longer because Iraqis are continuing to make progress in function, not just in numbers but in their capabilities to do certain functions like, for instance, holding a highway between the airport and the center of the city, something that our forces were doing just a short time ago, they're now doing."

I sure don't remember hearing about anybody getting routinely shot at on the run from Tan Son Nhut airport to central Saigon, other than during Tet '68, much less needing to take an armed chopper, unless the military moms that raised my friends and I had a lot more sangfroid than can be imagined.

This is worse than "Street Without Joy", only it's happening to us.

Maybe the Sh'ia and Kurd faction leaders will reckon that the US Army and Marines aren't going to suppress the Sunni and figure they'd better take the Cairo option and make a deal. Otherwise, I guess it won't be very long before the White House political operation starts quietly leaking against the Army and the Marines, blaming them for the mess.

 

[oi2002]

Moose V Murtha:

However, the Third Camp is united in the belief that America can only leave when Iraq is relatively stable and a government is in place that can defend itself against the terrorist forces. Some favor more troops, at least temporarily. Others believe that current levels are adequate. Most of all, the Third Camp seeks a bi-partisan national unity that rejects the increasingly bitter polarization over the war. This is not the time to suggest that the President lied or that patriotic critics of the war are treasonous. To paraphrase Congressman Rahm Emanuel, the debate should not be over how we got in but rather how we get out leaving behind a stabilized Iraq.

I suspect the proposed coalition of adults is a very small camp indeed.

 

[oi2002]

LA Times

President Bush will give a major speech Wednesday at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., in which aides say he is expected to herald the improved readiness of Iraqi troops, which he has identified as the key condition for pulling out U.S. forces.
...
The developments seemed to lay the groundwork for potentially large withdrawals in 2006 and 2007, consistent with scenarios outlined by Pentagon planners. The approach also tracks the thinking of some centrist Democrats, such as Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, the senior representative of his party on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Some analysts say the emerging consensus might have less to do with conditions in Iraq than the deployment's long-term strain on the U.S. military. And major questions about the readiness of Iraq's fledgling security forces remain, posing risks for any strategy that calls for an accelerated American withdrawal.
...
Andrew Krepinevich, a former Pentagon official who heads the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an independent defense research group in Washington, argues that these strains have become a key factor informing administration thinking.

Unlike the Vietnam era, when the military had a nearly endless supply of draftees, the Iraq experience has sharply reduced the flow of recruits into the volunteer armed forces and attrition rates are alarmingly high, Krepinevich noted.
...
"I think the administration will yield to the reality of an Army that is apparently beginning to buckle under the strain of these long-term deployments," Krepinevich said.

 

[oi2002]

Al-Zarqawi’s Rise to Power

49% of Zarqawi’s targets are military (see chart 2). In addition, 76.2% of the overall military targets were Iraqi and only 23.8% were American. On the other hand, political targets (including national political figures, local officials, political offices such as embassies and UN facilities) come second to military ones (36.2%), followed by economic targets (collaborators and companies)—14.1%, and finally ethno-religious targets—0.6%.
...
In regards to targeting Shi’ites and Kurds, it is clear that despite the network’s literature, which is full of extreme threats against Shiites and to a lesser extent the Kurds, the declared operations against the former are almost non-existent. It is important to understand that in their public literature, al-Qaeda in Iraq justify targeting Shi’ites on the basis of this community’s open and wide-ranging cooperation with the occupation, and not on their supposedly “heretical” beliefs. This is the case with the religious Shi’ite political organizations, whose militias, in particular the highly effective al-Badr paramilitary organization (labeled as “al-Ghadr,” or “treachery” by the Salafi-jihadists) largely dominate the new Iraqi security structures. The Zarqawi network is mindful of the harmful effect of targeting Shi’ites insofar as global Muslim public opinion is concerned, and hence it tries to justify the targeting of Shi’ite security elites on political rather than religious grounds.

 

[oi2002]

Pat Lang on Joe Bidens call for a Iraqi timetable:

In this OP/Ed piece he lays out a strategy which is not based on conditionality, that is, he does not say, as the administration says, that we will not withdraw from Iraq until the Iraqis indicate that they are ready for us to leave, and that we agree that they are ready.

No, he says that there are "X" number of specific but difficult things to be done as part of a deliberate program of withdrawal, and that then we will be gone. Perhaps we will leave a "small" force in the country, perhaps we will leave a somewhat larger force in an adjoining country, perhaps we will leave a large force somewhere "over the horizon" in the Indian Ocean area, but essentially we will be gone from Iraq in 18 months to two years.

Incidentally OpenSource in the 'The Muscular Wilsonians: What do They Believe?' podcast there was a comment that Dems actually felt they were getting more criticism from the parties base about the lack of a withdrawal plan than Dubya is receiving for creating the mess in the first place. With Brent Scowcroft now sounding like Howard Dean two years ago, oddly it seems to be easier from within the GOP to be frankly critical of the conduct of the war than the spineless GOP-Lite Dems. Pat concludes:

Are these obstacles and difficulties so great as to make Biden's outline "moot?" I think not. We are now in Iraq. We are not in some other situation which we would have preferred. It is time for the "loyal opposition" to oppose. Biden's plan should provide an "umbrella" of thought under which to do so.

 

[Bigdavalad]

Breaking news, just been announced on BBC news.

Several civillians travelling to a shrine in Iraq were fired at by gunmen, killing and injuring several. Some of the casualties were carrying British passports.

Will update from the BBC site as more news comes in.

edit - Breaking news on BBC

 

[Barking_Mad]

Abuse of prisoners in Iraq widespread, officials say

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraqi authorities have been torturing and abusing prisoners in jails across the country, current and former Iraqi officials charged.

Deputy Human Rights Minister Aida Ussayran and Gen. Muntadhar Muhi al-Samaraee, a former head of special forces at the Ministry of the Interior, made the allegations two weeks after 169 men who apparently had been tortured were discovered in a south-central Baghdad building run by the Interior Ministry. The men reportedly had been beaten with leather belts and steel rods, crammed into tiny rooms with tens of others and forced to sit in their own excrement. A senior American military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, said he suspected that the abuse wasn't isolated to the jail the U.S. military discovered. Ussayran said abuse was taking place across the country.

In five visits to a women's prison in Baghdad's Kadhimiya district over more than three months, the Human Rights Ministry found that women were being raped by male guards, Ussayran said. That problem continues. One woman told the Human Rights Ministry that she was raped seven times on the seventh floor of the Interior Ministry, which is notorious to some Iraqi Sunni Muslims and home to intelligence offices. The Human Rights Ministry investigated that, and Ussayran said the problem had been rectified. No one was able to estimate the extent of the abuse, but the Iraqi government expects the results of the investigation into the Baghdad secret prison and into other prisons by the end of the week, Laith Kubba, a spokesman for Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, said Saturday.

The secret jail was discovered as American officials are training Iraqi forces to take over security as a prelude to withdrawing U.S. troops. But evidence of widespread abuse of prisoners, especially a pattern of Shiite Muslim troops abusing Sunni captives - would raise new questions about whether Iraq's U.S.-backed government seeks to end the abuses of Saddam Hussein's regime or to exact revenge for them.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Death squads don Iraqi uniforms

BAGHDAD - Shiite Muslim militia members have infiltrated Iraq's police force and are carrying out sectarian killings under the color of law, according to documents and scores of interviews.

The abuses raise the specter of organized retaliation against Sunni-led insurgents who have killed thousands of Shiites, who endured decades of subjugation under Saddam Hussein.

The abuses also undermine the U.S. effort to stabilize the nation and to train Iraq's security forces -- the Bush administration's prerequisites for a U.S. troop withdrawal.

Hundreds of accounts of Sunni killings and abductions by Iraqi men in uniform have emerged in recent weeks.

The Baghdad morgue reports that dozens of bodies arrive at the same time on a weekly basis, including scores of corpses with wrists bound by police handcuffs.

The Muslim Scholars Association, a Sunni organization, has compiled a library of grisly autopsy photos, lists of hundreds of missing and dead Sunnis and electronic recordings of testimonies by people who say they witnessed abuses by police officers affiliated with Shiite militias.

Many of the Sunni claims have been substantiated by at least one human rights organization working here -- which asked not to be identified because of safety concerns -- and documented by Sunni leaders working in their communities.

Confirmed 'death squads'

U.S. officials have long been concerned about extrajudicial killings in Iraq, but until recently have refrained from calling violent elements within the police force "death squads" -- a loaded term that conjures up the U.S.-backed paramilitaries that killed thousands of civilians during the Latin American civil wars of the 1970s and 1980s.

But U.S. military advisers in Iraq say the term is apt, and the Interior Ministry's inspector general concurs that extrajudicial killings are being carried out by ministry forces.

"There are such groups operating -- yes, this is correct," said Interior Ministry Inspector General Nori Nori.

 

[oi2002]

The Yorkshire Ranter reckons the dash to helicopters is beginning and contemplates the logistics of the rout:

When we leave Iraq we will go the same way we came, along the motorway (State Highway 8) south from Baghdad past the Shia towns, over the Euphrates, south-west of Basra and eventually to the docks in Kuwait City. This road (it leads on past Baghdad and eventually takes you to Mosul) is the main supply route for the whole coalition force, with a subsidiary air route to Baghdad Airport and the Corps Support Command logistics base at Balad South East airfield northeast of Baghdad. Appeasing the Sunni insurgents would be penny wise, pound foolish if it incenses the Shia, because our line of retreat is through their territory. The 2004 Shia rising effectively bollocksed up the logistics system to the point where the Green Zone was on half rations precisely because that road is where it is.

So that's a term we can't agree to. If we are tied to a specific date, though, we have no choice in the matter. That is the danger of a timetable. If we don't accept, then we still go in six months but we have to retreat under constant attack. And they will get what they want anyway.

Another point on this: as Comments Dan pointed out, British forces are currently covering the southern end of that route and the border with Kuwait. We can't leave until everyone else has, short of leaving the US to negotiate a deal with Iran to get out and accept that the NOIA will do exactly as it pleases, which would be a military disaster, lead to the immediate elimination of the Iraqi government and probable further intervention by the neighbours, and also be equivalent to terminating the Atlantic alliance.

 

[oi2002]

Lawrence Wilkerson: White House Believed the President was All-Powerful and Geneva Conventions "Irrelevant"

In an Associated Press interview, former Powell chief of staff Lawrence Wilkerson also said President Bush was "too aloof, too distant from the details" of postwar planning. Underlings exploited Bush's detachment and made poor decisions, Wilkerson said.

Wilkerson blamed Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and likeminded aides. He said Cheney must have sincerely believed that Iraq could be a spawning ground for new terror assaults, because "otherwise I have to declare him a moron, an idiot or a nefarious bastard."

I sure Dick will be pleased that the Col. is so generous.

 

[oi2002]

Kevin Drum

As you may recall, Knight Ridder's Tom Lasseter reported the same thing over a month ago, suggesting that crack units within the Iraqi army have essentially become Shiite militias that take orders from local Shiite clerics. In other words, "infiltrated" probably isn't really the right word. It's been the plan all along.

As most of these crack units are made up of Iranian Revolutionary Guard trained Badr Brigade guys infiltrating some gentler souls might be tricky.

 

[oi2002]

Abu Aardvark is a clever bastard.

 

[oi2002]

Zal Khalilzad is having a sit down with the Mullahs in Tehran. A sensible step, essentail for withdrawal.

Via Juan Realists Tighten Grip as Talks Open with Iran

Washington's growing reliance on and support for regional diplomacy marks a serious setback to neo-conservatives who, long before the Iraq war, had championed the unilateral imposition of a Pax Americana in the Middle East that would put an end to what in their view constituted the chief threats to Israel's security -- Arab nationalism and Iranian theocracy.

Now, two and a half years after invading Iraq to put that peace into place, the administration finds itself seeking the support of both forces, just as the realists had warned.

 

[oi2002]

Via Global Guerillas Martin van Creveld on the Iraqi endgame and its likely repercussions:

Having been thoroughly devastated by two wars with the United States and a decade of economic sanctions, decades will pass before Iraq can endanger its neighbors again. Yet a complete American withdrawal is not an option; the region, with its vast oil reserves, is simply too important for that. A continued military presence, made up of air, sea and a moderate number of ground forces, will be needed.

First and foremost, such a presence will be needed to counter Iran, which for two decades now has seen the United States as "the Great Satan." Tehran is certain to emerge as the biggest winner from the war — a winner that in the not too distant future is likely to add nuclear warheads to the missiles it already has. In the past, Tehran has often threatened the Gulf States. Now that Iraq is gone, it is hard to see how anybody except the United States can keep the Gulf States, and their oil, out of the mullahs' clutches.

A continued American military presence will be needed also, because a divided, chaotic, government-less Iraq is very likely to become a hornets' nest. From it, a hundred mini-Zarqawis will spread all over the Middle East, conducting acts of sabotage and seeking to overthrow governments in Allah's name.

The Gulf States apart, the most vulnerable country is Jordan, as evidenced by the recent attacks in Amman. However, Turkey, Egypt and, to a lesser extent, Israel are also likely to feel the impact. Some of these countries, Jordan in particular, are going to require American assistance.

Maintaining an American security presence in the region, not to mention withdrawing forces from Iraq, will involve many complicated problems, military as well as political. Such an endeavor, one would hope, will be handled by a team different from — and more competent than — the one presently in charge of the White House and Pentagon.

For misleading the American people, and launching the most foolish war since Emperor Augustus in 9 B.C sent his legions into Germany and lost them, Bush deserves to be impeached and, once he has been removed from office, put on trial along with the rest of the president's men. If convicted, they'll have plenty of time to mull over their sins.

Now that last paragraph wrong; Dubya is not Augustus. Augustus, at the head of an empire on a roll, saw the limits of Roman power and consolidated the Rhine border; it stood for centuries. I forget the name (Julian?) of the late Roman emperor who invaded Persia and ended up in a cage with the stuffed skin of his best friend for company. Now he reminds me of Dubya.

 

[nino_savatte]

Via Global Guerillas Martin van Creveld on the Iraqi endgame and its likely repercussions:Now that last paragraph wrong; Dubya is not Augustus. Augustus, at the head of an empire on a roll, saw the limits of Roman power and consolidated the Rhine border; it stood for centuries. I forget the name (Julian?) of the late Roman emperor who invaded Persia and ended up in a cage with the stuffed skin of his best friend for company. Now he reminds me of Dubya.

That'll be Valerian. Julian was known as the "Apostate" because he renounced Xtianity and re-embraced paganism.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Couple of interesting articles, especially the second one.

A couple of top Army analysts say the U-S shouldn't expect so much for Iraq's future

Andrew Terrill and Conrad Crane advise against setting a schedule to withdraw of U-S troops. But a new study from the Army War College experts says an American presence in Iraq probably can't go on more than three more years. Terrill and Crane also think it's increasingly unlikely that coalition forces will "crush" the insurgency before withdrawing.

They also believe it's "no longer clear" the U-S will be able to train an Iraqi military that can secure the country. Terrill and Crane say the U-S may have to "scale back" expectations for a future Iraq and accept a relatively stable but undemocratic state. Before the U-S invasion in 2003, Terrill and Crane accurately predicted much of the turmoil U-S troops have encountered since toppling Saddam Hussein.

US paying Iraqi press to run favourable stories

As part of an information offensive in Iraq, the U.S. military is secretly paying Iraqi newspapers to publish stories written by American troops in an effort to burnish the image of the U.S. mission in Iraq.

The articles, written by U.S. military “information operations” troops, are translated into Arabic and placed in Baghdad newspapers with the help of a defense contractor, according to U.S. military officials and documents obtained by the Los Angeles Times.

Many of the articles are presented in the Iraqi press as unbiased news accounts written and reported by independent journalists. . The stories trumpet the work of U.S. and Iraqi troops, denounce insurgents, and tout U.S.-led efforts to rebuild the country.

While the articles are basically truthful, they present only one side of events and omit information that might reflect poorly on the U.S. or Iraqi governments, officials said. Records and interviews indicate that the U.S. has paid Iraqi newspapers to run dozens of such articles -- with headlines such as “Iraqis Insist on Living Despite Terrorism” -- since the effort began this year.

The operation is designed to mask any connection with the U.S. military. The Pentagon has a contract with a small Washington-based firm called Lincoln Group, which helps translate and place the stories. The Lincoln Group’s Iraqi staff, or its subcontractors, sometimes pose as freelance reporters or advertising executives when they deliver the stories to Baghdad media outlets.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Pace stuck to his original statement

The unusual exchange occurred during a discussion at a news conference about the relationship between U.S. forces in Iraq and an Iraqi government considered sovereign by the United States. A questioner asked whether the United States and its allies might be deemed responsible for preventing mistreatment of people under arrest in Iraq, given that the U.S. and its allies train Iraqi forces.

"There are a lot of people involved in this, dozens of countries trying to help train these Iraqi forces. Any instance of inhumane behavior is obviously worrisome and harmful to them when that occurs," Rumsfeld said. "Iraq knows, of certain knowledge, that they need the support of the international community. And a good way to lose it is to make a practice of something that is inconsistent with the values of the international community."

He added: "Now, you know, I can't go any further in talking about it. Obviously, the United States does not have a responsibility when a sovereign country engages in something that they disapprove of."

Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was asked what orders the troops have to handle such incidents. He responded: "It is absolutely the responsibility of every U.S. service member if they see inhumane treatment being conducted, to intervene, to stop it."

He said soldiers who hear of but don't see an incident should deal with it through superiors of the offending Iraqis. That's when Rumsfeld stepped to the microphone and said, "I don't think you mean they have an obligation to physically stop it. It's to report it." Pace then repeated to Rumsfeld that intervening when witnessing abuse is the order the troops must follow, not just reporting it.

 

[oi2002]

Fabius Maximus looks on the bright side after predicting total failure in Iraq, seeing past the heaps of mutilated corpses towards a better tomorrow:

Who are the big winners in this scenario?

First, our partners in the Coalition. Their willingness to follow our lead likely will be greatly reduced. Given how poorly we are managing our foreign affairs, this might be a good thing.

Second, the US people. A crusading fever has taken hold of the Center-Left and Center-Right elements of the political spectrum (Much of the extreme Right considers this idiotic. The extreme left considers it evil). Having seen the results, American public support for future expeditionary actions probably remains low for another generation.

Third, the US military. Thirty years after defeat in Vietnam, they still cannot successfully fight a fourth generation war. Our soldiers became clay pigeons, targets for enemy IEDs. All our General could do in response is boast about our Body Count.

The debate is over, and it’s back to the drawing board. Both the US and its enemy conducted a Revolution in Military Affairs. Theirs worked. Ours did not.

History suggests that our two thousand dead soldiers will not have died in vain IF we learn from this experience. This might prove cheap tuition for the US as we enter the era of Fourth Generation Warfare.

War Nerd gets a mention by the way.

Juan gets a bit nervous about the USAF future role in Iraq:

Hersh reports that US Air Force officers are alarmed by the implication that Iraqi targeters may be calling down air strikes using US warplanes. I remember that Iraqi troops (mainly Kurds) were allowed to call down airstrikes in Tal Afar last August, and if my recollection serves, the Tal Afar operation may even have been conceived as an opportunity for Iraqi troops to get practice in doing so. They levelled whole neighborhoods of the Sunni Turkmen (many of whom had thrown in with Saddam in the old days).

The Air Force officers are right to be alarmed. It has been obvious to me for some time that US air power will be used to try to keep the guerrillas from taking over Iraq as the ground troops depart. This is why last August I argued for keeping some US Special Operations forces embedded with the new Iraqi army, since I felt that the US military should remain in control of the use of American air power (i.e. the laser targetting should be done by Navy Seals and others, not by Iraqis).

I doubt Juan is dreaming here. Once the Iraqis actually control how the war is fought it really won't matter who points the laser. Ethnic cleansing unknowingly assisted by the USAF is all too likely.

One of the big weakness of the Yank ARVN was it was habituated to heavy fire support from the US. I wonder if they've made the same mistake in Iraq.

 

[sihhi]

US Military Uses Covert Media Operations

The military's effort to disseminate propaganda in the Iraqi media is taking place even as U.S. officials are pledging to promote democratic principles, political transparency and freedom of speech in a country emerging from decades of dictatorship and corruption.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationw...0nov30,0,5638790.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Same as B's article above..

Also problems with Private Security Groups

http://www.southcoasttoday.com/daily/11-05/11-29-05/a05wn560.htm

 

[Barking_Mad]

Nine Iraqi soldiers killed in car bomb

Nine Iraqi soldies were killed and 12 others injured in a car bomb blast in the town of al-Mishada, north of here, police said on Wednesday.

Iraq Misses Deadline For Torture Report

Backing off on a report due out on Wednesday, Iraq's government says a committee looking into torture allegations hasn't finished its work and needs more time. The panel ... is looking into conditions at an Interior Ministry jail.

U.S. convoy attacked in Kerbala

In Kerbala, south of Baghdad, a car bomb detonated by remote control exploded as a US military convoy was passing there. Police said a number of vehicles were damaged, but declined to say whether there were US casualties.

Four dead from mortar blast in Mussayab

In Mussayab, 60 km south of here, four Iraqis, two of them schoolboys, were killed when a mortar shell fell near the gate of a primary school in the city centre.

National Guard and Reserve Mobilized as of November 30, 2005

This week, the Army announced an increase in the number of reservists on active duty, while the Air Force, Navy, Coast Guard and Marine Corps had a decrease. The net collective result is 687 more reservists mobilized than last week.

Two security guards shot in Baghdad

Two security guards were wounded when snipers fired at the office of Salama al-Khafaji, a member of the National Assembly, in western Baghdad, police said. She was not in the office at the time of the attack.

Iraqi officer wounded near Kirkuk

An Iraqi army officer and two soldiers were seriously wounded when a makeshift bomb went off near their patrol in Manzilah village southwest of Kirkuk, 250 km north of Baghdad, police said.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Iraqi Hospitals Come Under Siege

RAMADI - Hospital personnel are reporting regular raids and interference by the U.S. military as fighting continues in the volatile al-Anbar province of Iraq.

The U.S. raids come as the hospitals face an increasing lack of vital supplies and equipment.

Two hospitals in Ramadi, about 70 miles west of the capital in Baghdad on the Euphrates river, are being raided regularly by the U.S. military, doctors say.

"The maternity hospital and the general hospital in our city are the two biggest hospitals," the official said. "These have both been raided twice a week by the American forces with the excuse that they are searching for militants. They [the U.S. soldiers] break every door which is closed, play with our records, and sometimes even detain some of our staff. The Americans are not adhering to any laws."

Other doctors spoke of the lack of adequate equipment and infrastructure.

Dr. Abdul Qader, who works at Ramadi General Hospital, told IPS that the critical care unit there lacked monitors, the CT scan was broken, and many other instruments were not working. Such problems are now common around the province, both doctors said.

"In addition to lacking electricity, we often lack fuel deliveries for our generators," said Dr. Qader. "Our machines often break down, which puts our patients in very critical situations."

Similar problems have been evident in Baghdad since last year. "We had a power outage while someone was undergoing surgery in the operating room," Ahlan Bar, manager of nurses at the Yarmouk Teaching Hospital in Baghdad, told IPS. "He died on the table because we had no power for our instruments."

 

[Barking_Mad]

Top Sunni cleric assassinated in Iraq

FALLUJAH: Unidentified gunmen killed one of the top Sunni clerics in western Iraq on Tuesday as he left a mosque in Fallujah, his brother said.

Sheik Hamza Abbas was the head of the Religious Scholars Council in Fallujah and the top cleric for Anbar province. Dr Ahmed Abbas, his brother, said he was shot when he left the al-Wahda mosque after evening prayers in Fallujah, 65 kms west of Baghdad.

Abbas made contacts with the Americans during a major battle in the city between US troops and insurgents last year. His contacts angered some insurgents in the city who accused him of "collaborating with the occupiers." "I am here to serve Fallujah and did not deal with the Americans. I want Fallujah to benefit," the late cleric said in one of his sermons.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Americans Against Torture, But Believe We Do It

NEW YORK Most Americans believe that U.S. troops or officials have tortured prisoners in Iraq or other countries, and oppose the practice, even if it helps gain information on possible terrorist attacks, the Gallup Organization announced today in releasing poll results.

The survey found that 74% believe the U.S. has tortured prisoners, with 20% disagreeing--with storng majorities of both Democrats and Republicans holding that view.

Asked if they would be willing to have the U.S. torture suspected terrorists "if they may know details about future terrorist attacks against the U.S.," 56% said no, vs. 38% saying yes. The party gap is bigger here, with only 27% of Democrats signing off on torture in that case, vs. 51% of Republicans.

Gallup pointed out that while President Bush recently said, "We do not torture," most Americans "think otherwise."

 

[oi2002]

Big PDF by the always clear headed Terrill and Crane on the Iraqi endgame.

They reckon 3 more years maximum, beyond that both the public will to continue and the all volunteer army may crumble. They have doubts that the US can leave a viable democracy in Iraq given this time frame, point to severe problems of legitimacy in the current government and suggest it's very dangerous to maintain the occupation on the basis of Iraq not yet being democratic enough. Their conclusions:

1. U.S. Government leaders must never forget that the United
States will achieve its key objectives once the Iraqi government is
viewed by the majority of its people, regardless of sect or ethnicity,
as a legitimate government that is worth fighting and dying for;
and the Iraqi security forces have the training, know-how, and
equipment to put these convictions into practice.
...
2. The United States must develop detailed plans for
implementing a withdrawal of significant numbers of troops under a variety of much less than optimal conditions.
...
3. U.S. military and intelligence leaders must be painfully
honest in addressing the question of when Iraqi security forces
will be able to function without a coalition troop presence to
prop them up.
...
4. Senior U.S. military leaders must resist the view that they
are “grading themselves” when they are asked to train the security
forces and to evaluate Iraqi readiness to assume more expanded
duties for military and security operations.
...
5. The United States MUST NOT establish a timetable to
withdraw from Iraq so long as U.S. leaders consider the situation
in Iraq to be redeemable.
...
6. As a last resort for preventing near-term civil war, the United
States may have to swallow the bitter pill of allowing local militias
to retain a significant and ongoing role in Iraqi politics if the Iraqi
government is interested in pursuing this option and if the Iraqi
security forces cannot take full responsibility for the nation’s
safety.
...
7. The United States needs to renounce interest in permanent
bases in Iraq on a strong and continuing basis.
...
8. The United States needs to deemphasize rhetoric that may
cause Iraqi citizens to believe their government has been put
in place to wage war on U.S. enemies in the Muslim World and
otherwise serve U.S. interests.
...
9. U.S. leadership must recognize that it may still continue
to support democracy after U.S. forces are withdrawn from Iraq,
providing that the nation is stable when it leaves.
...
10. U.S. leaders should continually note the courage,
commitment, and sacrifice of our troops in the field, while realizing
that these same qualities are reasons to safeguard their lives even
more carefully.

Having set a realistic time constraint their view on timetables is well made:

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, a timetable surrenders
the judgment of military and intelligence professionals to that of an
inflexible and arbitrary commitment. If Iraq is redeemable, but key
goals are not accomplished in accordance with the timetable, the
United States may end up abandoning a potentially hopeful situation
and instead allowing that nation to plunge into civil war and anarchy.
If it becomes obvious to intelligence professionals, regional experts,
and other informed observers that Iraq is irredeemable, then why
wait to withdraw according to a timetable? The timetable option can
only serve in the gray area whereby the Iraqi government may have
only a small chance to survive, but the U.S. leadership does not wish
to announce publicly that we have basically given up on Iraq. The
timetable option allows the United States to appear before the world
community as having provided Iraq one last chance before allowing
it to sink into anarchy.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Ramadi rebels attack U.S. bases, Iraqi offices

BAGHDAD (USATODAY.com) — Insurgents attacked several U.S. bases and government offices with mortars and rockets Thursday before dispersing in the capital of western Iraq's Anbar province, residents said.
The attacks in Ramadi occurred as local tribal leaders and U.S. military officials were to hold their second meeting in a week at the governor's office in the city center.

Residents said that within minutes, scores of masked gunmen, believed to be members of Jordan-born militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's al-Qaeda in Iraq group, ran into the city's streets but dispersed after launching attacks with mortars and Russian-made Katyusha rockets.

It was not clear whether the attacks left any casualties — most residents fled to their homes after the exchange began.

Ramadi is the provincial capital of Anbar province, a Sunni stronghold, where clashes between insurgents and U.S. and Iraqi troops have left hundreds of people dead in the past two years.

U.S. and Iraqi troops launched a joint operation near Ramadi on Wednesday, sweeping through an area used to rig car bombs.

The offensive came as President Bush said he hopes to shift more of the military burden onto the Iraqis as part of a strategy to draw down American forces.

About 500 Iraqi troops joined 2,000 U.S. Marines, soldiers and sailors in a move to clear insurgents from an area on the eastern side of the Euphrates river near Hit, 85 miles west of Baghdad, the U.S. command said in a statement.

In a statement, the military said the Hai Al Becker region "is suspected to be an al-Qaeda in Iraq safe area and base of operations for the manufacture of vehicle car bombs, roadside bombs." It described the area as a transit point for foreign fighters and Iraqi insurgents infiltrating from Syria into Iraq.

There were no reports of casualties during the first day of the operation, part of a series of sweeps through Sunni Arab towns along the Euphrates believed to be major insurgent strongholds.

Residents reached by telephone said U.S. forces warned townspeople by loudspeakers to stay in their homes for the next three days.

Two U.S. service members died of wounds suffered in combat and a Marine died in a non-hostile traffic accident, the U.S. military said Thursday. That raised the U.S. death toll for November to at least 84.

 

[Barking_Mad]

from the same link as at the bottom of the previous page.

Iraq's interior minister dismissed the senior inspector in charge of human rights on Thursday in connection with a scandal involving the torture of dozens of prisoners at a Baghdad prison, an official close to the minister said.

Nouri al-Nouri, the ministry's chief inspector for corruption cases and human rights violations, was fired on the orders of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the official said on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the media.

Al-Nouri, a Shiite Muslim, had been in the post since the hand over of sovereignty to Iraqi in June 2004.

 

[Barking_Mad]

US to escalate air war says Hersh

Seymour Hersh, interviewed on CNN’s Late Edition With Wolf Blitzer, says US planning to accelerate air war to allow them to pull out more US troops:

Evidently, this is covered in a new New Yorker article, Up in the Air, which I have net yet seen. Remember, the October, 2004 study [
Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: Cluster sample survey] in the Lancet that estimated that 98,000 Iraqis had died as a result of the US invasion, also reported that most of those who died violent deaths, died as a result of US air strikes. Imagine what devastation this new escalated air war will cause. In addition, the air power may well be used in internecine warfare:

BLITZER: And then you go on to write this: “The prospect of using air power as a substitute for American troops on the ground has caused great unease. For one thing, Air Force commanders, in particular, have deep-seated objections to the possibility that Iraqis eventually will be responsible for target selection. ‘Will the Iraqis call in air strikes in order to snuff rivals, or other warlords, or to snuff members of your own sect and blame someone else?’ another senior military planner now on assignment in the Pentagon asked.”

Also, Hersh reveals what I have long suspected, that, Bush is a true believer in his war, and is not about to call it quits just because it’s become unpopular and is hurting him politically:

HERSH: Suffice to say this, that this president in private, at Camp David with his friends, the people that I’m sure call him George, is very serene about the war. He’s upbeat. He thinks that he’s going to be judged, maybe not in five years or ten years, maybe in 20 years. He’s committed to the course. He believes in democracy.

HERSH: He believes that he’s doing the right thing, and he’s not going to stop until he gets — either until he’s out of office, or he falls apart, or he wins.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Two US soldiers killed in Iraq

A US marine died in Fallujah from wounds received from small arms fire during combat on Wednesday. A US army soldier based in the Taji military base in north Baghdad, died in the medical treatment facility of wounds received from a gunshot.

Israelis training Kurds in northern Iraq - report

Private Israeli security firms have sent experts to Iraq's northern Kurdish region to give covert training to Kurdish security forces, an Israeli newspaper reported on Thursday.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Murtha says army is 'broken, worn out'

LATROBE, Pa. - Most U.S. troops will leave Iraq within a year because the Army is "broken, worn out" and "living hand to mouth," Rep. John Murtha told a civic group.

Two weeks ago, Murtha created a storm of comment when he called for U.S. troops to leave Iraq now. The Democratic congressman spoke to a group of community and business leaders in Latrobe on Wednesday, the same day President Bush said troops would be withdrawn when they've achieved victory, not under an artificial deadline set by politicians.

Murtha predicted most troops will be out of Iraq within a year.

"I predict he'll make it look like we're staying the course," Murtha said, referring to Bush. "Staying the course is not a policy."

Murtha, 73, the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, expressed pessimism about Iraq's stability and said the Iraqis know who the insurgents are, but don't always share that information with U.S. troops. He said a civil war is likely because of ongoing factionalism among Sunni Arabs, and Kurds and Shiites.

He also said he was wrong to vote to support the war.

"I admit I made a mistake when I voted for war," Murtha said. "I'm looking at the future of the United States military."

Murtha, a decorated Vietnam war veteran, said the Pennsylvania National Guard is "stretched so thin" that it won't be able to send fully equipped units to Iraq next year. Murtha predicted it will cost $50 billion to upgrade military equipment nationwide, but says the federal government is already reducing future purchases to save money.

 

[oi2002]

Interesting piece by Kaveh L Afrasiabi on Iran and the US exit strategy in Iraq:

Currently, the US must map out two exit strategies, one for Afghanistan and one for Iraq, and in more ways than one the two are interrelated, not the least because in both countries, sharing long, porous borders with Iran, there cannot be durable peace and stability without input from Iran.

Contrary to the prevalent, superficial analyses of today's Iran, the foreign policy of that country toward the "new" Iraq and "new" Afghanistan features all the essential ingredients of good neighborly relations warranting an alternative assessment of the Islamic Republic as "rogue" and/or "axis of evil".

In view of the steady expansion of trade and economic cooperation between Iran and its two neighbors under American occupation, there are ample grounds for perceiving Iran as a regional bastion of stability directly benefiting from the political and geostrategic windfall of the downfall of two hostile regimes in Kabul and Baghdad and their replacement with rather benign alternatives.
...
With certain Iraqi Shi'ites aligning themselves with the US power, which has "liberated" them from decades of Ba'athist oppression, an Iranian ambivalence toward the US military presence in Iraq, as well as Afghanistan, has been manifested at official and semi-official levels. Consequently, a structural limit of Iran's anti-Americanism can be seen here, precisely as a result of fears of Iraq's breakup or descent into the quagmire of inter-religious fratricide favoring the anti-Shi'ite extremist Sunnis in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, overriding the ideological antipathy toward the "Great Satan".

This means that blind, diabolical opposition to the US is not really in Iran's geopolitical interests, at least for the moment, since neither Iran, nor any other regional power, can possibly fill the vacuum of departed American power - power that in any case has been inadvertently serving Iran's interests.
...
In contemplating an exit strategy, the US government must be able to rely on the stalwart participation by Iran that has hitherto been lacking, at least publicly.
...
To open a caveat here, last year at a Persian Gulf conference on regional security, this author was surprised to hear from more than one Arab expert that in their opinion Iran's "rogue behavior" was meant to stimulate America's continued presence in Iraq to safeguard Shi'ite political gains, the argument being that the "Iran threat" would make it harder for the US to leave.
...
With several noted politicians, including Ahmad Chalabi, willing to play the compliant helper in this rather odd but ultimately realistic scenario that is dictated less by the political taste of actors involved than by the cold realities on the ground, the Iraqi client state will be for the foreseeable future empowered by two seemingly hostile forces.