Iran
- Thread starter J.C.Decaux
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
No. You missed the point I was making. Who are they ? Some context would help us here.
Humberto
anthropocene participant
I'm more worried for them in all honesty. i.e for Iran and its good citizens rather than for World War 3. I'm worried for the Israelis and Palestinians, the Iraqis and Syrians that get caught in proxy wars.
Regional wars can spread. Grievances and disputes can come to the fore. 'Opportunities' as they may be called by those who don't mind bloodshed. And do I take every cause and every side equally? No I don't; one can't. But this is a dangerous terrain we have entered. I don't want to be alarmist but I believe it is.
Firstly: The profit angle. 'I heard a rumour', stock market prices jump. Favours are owed
Secondly: The 'allies', i.e. the state of their leaders right now are capable of cooking up a real disaster between them. Hyperbole? I think 'assuming' victory without having a practical goal has undone so many countries. And that's without counting our own countries' interests. Or rather the citizens rather than the politicians and hangers on.
Thirdly: Whilst I may for once not lament America's move here in agreement: over-confidence and war-OF-terror mentality is essentialy racist. Is an American the enemy of an Iranian?
Regional wars can spread. Grievances and disputes can come to the fore. 'Opportunities' as they may be called by those who don't mind bloodshed. And do I take every cause and every side equally? No I don't; one can't. But this is a dangerous terrain we have entered. I don't want to be alarmist but I believe it is.
Firstly: The profit angle. 'I heard a rumour', stock market prices jump. Favours are owed
Secondly: The 'allies', i.e. the state of their leaders right now are capable of cooking up a real disaster between them. Hyperbole? I think 'assuming' victory without having a practical goal has undone so many countries. And that's without counting our own countries' interests. Or rather the citizens rather than the politicians and hangers on.
Thirdly: Whilst I may for once not lament America's move here in agreement: over-confidence and war-OF-terror mentality is essentialy racist. Is an American the enemy of an Iranian?
where is Mohammad Reza Pahlavi when you need him? 
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
doesn't seem to have been mentioned on this thread, but it seems that yer man was in baghdad on a diplomatic mission where the iraqi pm was a go-between between the iranians and the saudis. so trump's assassination seems to have destroyed any chance of a regional reduction of tensions between saudi arabia and iran and if the us really does have the best intelligence they'll have known that.
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LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Given what we know of him and his previous activity I think it might be a bit of a stretch to have him down as a peace seeking diplomat.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I don't doubt that the US knew about it - much like I don't doubt that the US knows that Iran will retaliate - however it decided that whatever diplomacy was going on between KSA-Iraq-Iran was simply less important than the opportunity to get Suleimanni and bring on whatever disruption his killing and succession causes within the Iranian state.
To be entirely fair to that judgement, do you really see there being and serious, long term rapprochement between Iran and KSA in the current circumstances?
Lost nothing, X percentage change of winning something....
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
no: but i wonder whether the possibility of things calming down there was one of the things the killing was intended to prevent
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
not now
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
And the middle of last week? Really?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i don't think there'd have been an end to rivalry. but i do think that using yer man as an emissary suggests iran for one was taking this seriously and that it could have seen the tension lowered at least temporarily.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont know the true picture and we only have the Iraqi PMs word on Soleimani being in Iraq for that purpose (and he was probably there for multiple purposes). But this stuff is consistent with the stage the Yemen war appears to have reached in recent months. Probably the Saudis realised they were not going to win that war, and were feeling vulnerable after the oil field attacks etc. At the very least, exit strategies are being explored.
It's pretty much election time in the US, there has been a working class uprising in Iran, so this escalation has come at a perfect time for both Trump and the Iranian theocrats.
not-bono-ever
meh
Anyway, this isn’t WW3 in the making. Iran is not going to risk open conflict with the great Satan , Trump doesn’t want to send More GI meat to the Middle East and the increasingly worried KSA really don’t want their cash flows disrupted in the light of the Iran drone attack a while ago. Some low level ( relatively) kicking off in Iraq, some scuffling and fisticuffs in the straits. Sadly I think it will be Iraq focused from now on. The great Satan isn’t as much in hock to the region for oil either compared to the past. It will still be Shitty for the Iraqis caught up in this proxy conflict.again
Eric and Donald Trump Jr develop bone spurs in anticipation of war with Iran
As tensions with Iran escalate, the military-age sons of President Trump are understood to have simultaneously developed bone spurs - which would exempt them from any draft, were one introduced.
newsthump.com
The orange bafoon has managed to unite Iran, increase the power of the theocracy, get Iran back on it's nuke program, and alienate Iraq......but America is so much safer now.
Not for Americans of Iranian heritage, it seems
Iranian-Americans 'harassed' by US border officials
Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
This feels more like Cuba nuclear crisis than 2003 tbh US denies Iran's Zarif a visa to attend UN: US official
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
it's a huge pity the late great Stanley Edwards isn't around to go after it
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
give it a few months and we'll see if it's still simmering
Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yes, he died last yearlate?
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