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Iran

Trump might end up being the one to start it but a large chunk of the US state has been after war with Iran for decades, it's not some uniquely Trumpian/Republican abomination, it's a natural aspect of US foreign and domestic policy.

true but a trigger that is not normally pushed on one mans ego trip..
 
true but a trigger that is not normally pushed on one mans ego trip..
What does that mean? Yousir has just suggested that a long running part of a large part of the US Establishment has had a aim of war with iran (i don't think that's true myself). How can you reply be saying yeah but it's trump.

I think, here, safe-ish, on the left, is the danger of these idiotic narratives once more gaining ground and covering up what's rerally happening - tens of thousands of syrian revolutionaries dying because idiots need to talk about the west, nd being replicated everywhere rebel dares raise their head. Fuck Suleimani. Fuck Assad. Fuck Trump. And fuck anyone who can't or refuses (esp on anti-imperialist grounds) to join the dots.
 
What does that mean? Yousir has just suggested that a long running part of a large part of the US Establishment has had a aim of war with iran (i don't think that's true myself). How can you reply be saying yeah but it's trump.

I think, here, safe-ish, on the left, is the danger of these idiotic narratives once more gaining ground and covering up what's rerally happening - tens of thousands of syrian revolutionaries dying because idiots need to talk about the west, nd being replicated everywhere rebel dares raise their head. Fuck Suleimani. Fuck Assad. Fuck Trump. And fuck anyone who can't or refuses (esp on anti-imperialist grounds) to join the dots.

it not trump but he has a say in how the miltary proceed

he is not controlling policy but the machine behind him

which to be fair has been looking for a war with iran since the last proxy goverment was thrown out
 
it not trump but he has a say in how the miltary proceed

he is not controlling policy but the machine behind him

which to be fair has been looking for a war with iran since the last proxy goverment was thrown out
This doesn't say a damn thing.
 
This jumped out at me from the BBC news website:

“He was widely considered a principal architect of President Bashar al-Assad's war in Syria, the ongoing conflict in Iraq, the fight against Islamic State, and many battles beyond.”

Is this true, or is it politically motivated revisionism? If so, how come I’ve never heard of this guy before today, if he’s apparently known to be Satan himself, responsible for every bad thing which has happened in the region in the last ten years (allegedly)?

I’m not saying it’s wrong, just surprising that this guy wasn’t as famous as Bin Laden.
He got the mention plenty of times in boring old msm over the years.

Qassem Suleimani: the Iranian general 'secretly running' Iraq
The message came from the head of Iran's elite al-Quds Force, Qassem Suleimani, and was conveyed by a senior Iraqi leader. It read: "General Petraeus, you should know that I, Qassem Suleimani, control the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, and Afghanistan. And indeed, the ambassador in Baghdad is a Quds Force member. The individual who's going to replace him is a Quds Force member."
 
Whilst the world is no doubt a better place without Soleimani the Yanks have assassinated the head of a foreign military in a 3rd country. This puts the Iranians in a hell of a bind. If they don't respond to what is effectively an act of war they will look weak, if they do they risk being stomped.
2020 seems to have got off to a bit of an hairy start
tbh I think it's simplistic and wrong to think in terms of 'nasty person, world better place without him'. That's the kind of reasoning labour types used to justify toppling Saddam Hussein. Just cos a person is a nasty person, that doesn't make killing them ok, nor does it necessarily mean the world is a better place without them when getting to that world without them carries with it massive consequences.

On a moral plane, this ticks every box to be defined as 'terrorism' for those who wish to think in those terms. Again, terrorism can be carried out against nasty people, not just nice people. I don't see how this act of terrorism is going to do anything other than strengthen the positions of those who oppose the US and its allies in the region. It has made the world a more dangerous place, and plenty of people are going to die as a result. Of course, plenty of people are dying all the time in the region, but this doesn't help them any either. And I can only presume that the main motivation for this attack was Trump's hold over his own position, hoping it will strengthen his hold on power as much as it strengthens the hold on power of Soleimani's allies. I fear he might be right.
 
There is no box on earth in which this is called terrorism ffs. Sloppy use of terms and attempt to reverse them. The closest anything here to terrorism is the planned groznying of Aleppo. The one planned and done by this cunt.
 
In what way?

Iran doesn't have nukes, and it's friends who have nukes aren't really it's friends, they just - for the moment - have a common enemy, but neither Russia nor China is going to risk a nuclear exchange with the US for the sake of Iran.

Iran's ability to fight proxy wars has been impressive, but it's ability to fight a stand up war with the US is not far off non-existant.

Iran can doubtless respond with terrorism against US allies/proxies and issue dire threats, and it's allies may note their grave concerns and make life for the US and it's proxies/allies difficult elsewhere in order to produce overstretch, but this not August 1914.

There are risks to be weighed up, but the US has imposed a significant defeat on the Iranians - the US is more willing to strike than they thought, the US has better intelligence than they thought, and the architect and executor of Iranian foreign and military policy, it's wars in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon,and the effective #2 in the Iranian state - as well as couple of locally important allies/proxies - is dead because the US wished it so.

This is similar in importance to the Germans killing Zhukov in 1943, or the US killing Giap in 1968. Not without risk, but a huge blow to to the effectiveness of their enemy.

Could the US do to Iran what it did to Iraq?
 
Not a chance on earth. No one even thinks that's possible. A boots on the ground war of US vs IR is not on the agenda. You're not daft, have a look around why.

Which is why I asked. The US needs bogeymen, Iran is one, snuff it out and they’re fucked, North Korea really don’t do it any more. But am curious as to Iran’s response, Trump has just killed, at his leisure, the top man in Iran’s military, Iran has to make a move, sabotaging oil tankers doesn’t feel like a fitting response. Where do they go and how does the US react to that?
 
Which is why I asked. The US needs bogeymen, Iran is one, snuff it out and they’re fucked, North Korea really don’t do it any more. But am curious as to Iran’s response, Trump has just killed, at his leisure, the top man in Iran’s military, Iran has to make a move, sabotaging oil tankers doesn’t feel like a fitting response. Where do they go and how does the US react to that?
I'm not sure the us does need bogeymen, it just needs a clear publicly articulated interest - it's miles better than old europe - and a path towards it.

Iran's move. whatever it is - (at first pogroms in iraq i think), is going to be a defeat for us. So let's avoid taking sides here. (Not that you have BH. Just rolling with and making the point)
 
Which is why I asked. The US needs bogeymen, Iran is one, snuff it out and they’re fucked, North Korea really don’t do it any more. But am curious as to Iran’s response, Trump has just killed, at his leisure, the top man in Iran’s military, Iran has to make a move, sabotaging oil tankers doesn’t feel like a fitting response. Where do they go and how does the US react to that?

Well if Iran go for a like for like approach then they will try to assassinate someone in the region that is some kind of US partner or important to US strategic interests. Bonus points if its someone they can brand a terrorist after they have killed them, so they can play the mirror game on the rhetorical front too.

I suppose there are many other possibilities too but I expect they will want to do something quite overt and notable at some point that they can wave in front of their population as an act of revolutionary retribution.
 
Well if Iran go for a like for like approach then they will try to assassinate someone in the region that is some kind of US partner or important to US strategic interests. Bonus points if its someone they can brand a terrorist after they have killed them, so they can play the mirror game on the rhetorical front too.

I suppose there are many other possibilities too but I expect they will want to do something quite overt and notable at some point that they can wave in front of their population as an act of revolutionary retribution.
The at some point is key here. There'll be Bahrain etc ratcheting, turn the heat up stuff, for now. Trump is right though. there are loads of decent Iranians who will be applauding this in private. Unable to do because of this arsheoles thugs.
 
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Well if Iran go for a like for like approach then they will try to assassinate someone in the region that is some kind of US partner or important to US strategic interests. Bonus points if its someone they can brand a terrorist after they have killed them, so they can play the mirror game on the rhetorical front too.

I suppose there are many other possibilities too but I expect they will want to do something quite overt and notable at some point that they can wave in front of their population as an act of revolutionary retribution.

After what Trump done this morning I would be fairly reluctant to stick my head above any parapets...
 
The at some point is key here. There'll be Bahrain etc ratcheting, turn the heat up stuff, for now. Trump is right though. there are loads of decent Iranians who will be applauding this is private. Unable to do because of this arsheoles thugs.

Yeah, eg Soleimani was one of the signatories of the 1999 letter to Khatami from the IRGC that demanded Khatami crush the protests etc immediately or be overthrown.
 
Yeah, eg Soleimani was one of the signatories of the 1999 letter to Khatami from the IRGC that demanded Khatami crush the protests etc immediately or be overthrown.
His people running around batoning people to death - esp near the university, Dogs. Then forcing people to lie that they were jew spies on tv.
 
What was he doing in Iraq anyway? Presumably organising a response to the American airstrikes from last month which killed 25 Iraqi Hizbullah fighters apparently. Whoever invited him or guaranteed his security is going to be shitting it.
That’s the thing that gets me, he must have known that the US knew he was flying into Baghdad, he thought he was untouchable.
 
On a moral plane, this ticks every box to be defined as 'terrorism' for those who wish to think in those terms.

on a legal plane it doesn't. i have no use for david french's politics but he is a competent lawyer and here is a tidy thread:


this gives background, including links to suleimani's involvement in helping to harass iraqi anti-govt protests, not to mention his activities in syria:

he himself was a terrorist acting in the interests of a state. third-worldists or triangulating anti-americans may not like what happened (such as a Certain poterR who re-appeared on the shelter board) but there's no moral distinction between him and, say, the head of the CIA directorate of operations.

from my second link above it appears that US intelligence had the guy in their sights but trump hesitated until the embassy attack. otoh, there's always a tweet:


and it's been a bad week for trump. lev parnas has been cleared to hand over the contents of his cell phone to the House Intelligence Committee, the democratic field is narrowing and trump is going to have to face one of them and they're all fair matches for his scumbaggery, and i can't overstate, to those who don't live here, the importance of the recent Christianity Today editorial ripping him. i don't know how many evangelicals would defect from trump's camp, but the editorial blew a hole in the narrative of his "solid base". no wonder there was such a furious and immediate response to it.

some are using the phrase "wag the dog". i wouldn't go that far, since again suleiman is a first class cunt and his demise would be welcome at any time, but ...
 
Could the US do to Iran what it did to Iraq?

Depends on what you mean...

The specifics are different - there's no stable jumping off point for a land invasion, and Iran's ground forces are on a very different level to Iraq's, but there's also absolutely no US interest in a land invasion either - but in big picture terms, the US has the ability with economics, airpower and cyber, to wreck the shit out of Iran and Iran will be little more than a spectator while they do so.

Iran will certainly enact some form of revenge - not least for domestic and international political consumption - and they may get lucky and top some senior CIA, diplomatic or military officials in the ME, but its going to be the allies/proxies who bear the brunt of it.

The infighting is going to be interesting to watch - matey-cakes was a kind of head of government, foreign secretary, head of SIS and Director Special Forces all rolled into one. The scramble (after an appropriate 3 seconds of mourning) to fill those roles and to assert dominance within the Byzantine Iranian state is not going to be purely bureaucratic - and may well hamper any revenge strategy. The fall out within the Iranian state, as much as the effect on extant Iranian capabilities, may well be one of the reasons the US decided to go for it...
 
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