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Iran

editor said:
You think it's only the leaders that support this kind of repressive shit?
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No, there are always supporters, but did you support Blair and his wars?
Of course not, but many in other countries blamed the whole population and/or Britain for what he did.

I'll happily blame their ultra conservative religious freaks, and I'm fine with extending that to their supporters, but not the whole of Iran because the majority there very probably have as much disdain for their government as you and I.
I've met quite a few Iranians and most have been nice enough people, so I prefer to hope I'm right and they're mostly fine.
 
Oi, did you touch my pint?
Fuck off, you looked at my girlfriend.

Thus utter fuck up is no more adult than a pair of drunks pushing each other in a bar, but a load of people make cash from it and there's a lot more potential for mass killings.

The UK should give Trump the finger, but Cunt Boris won't because he's hoping for trade deals post Brexit (Trusting Trump is an act of idiocy in itself).
What's a bunch of dead people compared to cash?
 
Don Troooomp said:
Oi, did you touch my pint?
Fuck off, you looked at my girlfriend.

Thus utter fuck up is no more adult than a pair of drunks pushing each other in a bar, but a load of people make cash from it and there's a lot more potential for mass killings.

The UK should give Trump the finger, but Cunt Boris won't because he's hoping for trade deals post Brexit (Trusting Trump is an act of idiocy in itself).
What's a bunch of dead people compared to cash?
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Thing is Congress have already said they'll block any trade deal if the GFA is fucked with. So no trade deal.
 
Don Troooomp said:
No, there are always supporters, but did you support Blair and his wars?
Of course not, but many in other countries blamed the whole population and/or Britain for what he did.

I'll happily blame their ultra conservative religious freaks, and I'm fine with extending that to their supporters, but not the whole of Iran because the majority there very probably have as much disdain for their government as you and I.
I've met quite a few Iranians and most have been nice enough people, so I prefer to hope I'm right and they're mostly fine.
Click to expand...
I think they are mostly fine. I visited Iran back in 1998. The same supreme leader was in power. The average people I met were universally kind and welcoming and there was no hostility directed at me or our group of US and UK citizens despite the hostility of those governments toward Iran. The younger people then had no respect for the ruling mullahs. They routinely broke the idiotic religious rules in private but had to tow the party line in public. Our young Iranian guide told us "I only go into mosques to take tourists. Religion is just a way to control people."
 
Conspiracy memes on FB already - Saudi false flag, conspiracy etc.

So Saudi/Israel/US are going to use drones to attack the worlds main oil refinery and jeopardise the entire global output just to have a pop at Iran? I am sure this kind of wooly conspiracy thinking is going to become louder over the next few weeks.

Let's assume Iran did do this, in funding the rebels, supplying the drones and authorising the attack. Trump has just fired John Bolton. What are their main strategic objectives? And could this high-risk and extremely audacious move play off in their favour?

Iran's military interventions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen have definitely meant everyone has more to lose with a regional conflict, but this could be one step too far now for some in Trump's administration.
 
Depends what you mean by 'pay off' and in what timeframe.

Iran undoubtedly scores points when the Saudis look weak and crap - and they look weak and crap - and they score more points when it's them (or their proxies m'lud...) that makes the Saudis look weak and crap.

That said, if in scoring so many points against the Saudis they 'force' the US to give them a very public spanking, they'll lose the points they've gained - they'll demonstrate that are not the power in the region, and that unlike the Saudis they don't have a patron willing and able to wade in and swing the big on their behalf.

It's a difficult tightrope to navigate - you won't acquire clients unless you look like you're on the up, but if you look too threatening you'll get slapped down, and no one wants to be friends with a loser.
 
I believe that Irans main objective was not to end up looking like the only victim of the US pulling out of the nuclear deal. They wanted there to be other consequences, and for nobody to be in any doubt about it. They were not going to sit around passively, especially as the sanctions hurt them at a time where their economy is already wobbly.

I'm never that sure how much countries factor in the implications of a big escalation into things. An argument could be made that the brinkmanship from various quarters is getting a lot cruder these days, and even in 'calmer times past' (eg the temporary unipolar end of history bullshit period post Soviet-union) I'm not sure I'd have found it very easy to predict how any particular saga would end, who would back down etc. Well, for a while we were used to seeing the USA & some sort of coalition crushing weak, relatively friendless countries. Even in those scenarios where the 'victor' was in little doubt, things could get complicated. And there arent many of those countries/regimes left now, the ones left tend to have powerful friends or some relatively powerful capabilities. So probably not that surprising to see more bluffs being called, perhaps factoring in things such as the fear of quagmire which has haunted the US to some extent for decades.
 
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TomUS said:
I think they are mostly fine. I visited Iran back in 1998. The same supreme leader was in power. The average people I met were universally kind and welcoming and there was no hostility directed at me or our group of US and UK citizens despite the hostility of those governments toward Iran. The younger people then had no respect for the ruling mullahs. They routinely broke the idiotic religious rules in private but had to tow the party line in public. Our young Iranian guide told us "I only go into mosques to take tourists. Religion is just a way to control people."
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I'm an optimist, that coming from the vast majority of people I've met being decent and reasonable, even what politicians tell me they should be my enemies. I grew up being told black people were bad, I should hate poofs, Iraq is full of murdering twats, same for Iran right now, the Chinese can't be trusted, Muslims are bastards, Israelis are zionist bastards , and whoever else is whatever else, but none of the people I met from those groups turned out to be evil little sods, just their extremists and politicans.
Stereotyping and collective blame are such a load of shit.
 
Hopefully I wont feel compelled to bore on so much about crude US war templates being applied inappropriately to Iran by people.

Because even if this stuff with Iran still eventually leads to military action at some stage, I hope its clear by now that the whole 'USA are looking for a pretext to attack and will seize any opportunity to do so' does not always apply. And theres about 40 years of history of it not being a good fit for 'the Iranian problem'.

Latest example from BBC defence correspondent at the end of story about British-registered tanker being released:

The attack on Saudi Arabia's oil installations further boosted tensions but it paradoxically illustrated that while Iran has options to escalate too, the Saudis and the US are very reluctant to respond in kind.
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Seized British-flagged tanker leaves Iranian port
 
Looks like the impact of sanctions has reached a new phase, one with much regime destabilising potential.

Protests erupt over Iran petrol rationing

Protests have erupted across Iran after the government unexpectedly announced it was rationing petrol and increasing its price, state media report.

Prices went up by at least 50% on Friday.

The authorities have reduced heavy subsidies on petrol prices to curb the impact of US sanctions which have badly affected Iran's economy.
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State news agency IRNA reported "severe" protests in Sirjan, central Iran, on Friday night as "people attacked a fuel storage warehouse in the city and tried to set fire to it".

One person was killed and others were injured, the semi-official ISNA news agency quoted Sirjan's governor as saying.

Protests also broke out in other cities including Mashhad, Birjand, Ahvaz, Gachsaran, Abadan, Khoramshahr, Mahshahr, Shiraz and Bandar Abbas, it added.

In Mashhad, Iran's second largest city, dozens of angry demonstrators blocked roads by abandoning their cars in traffic, AP news agency reported citing Iranian state media.

Videos posted online purportedly showed motorists in the capital, Tehran, stopping traffic on the Imam Ali Highway and chanting for the police to support them.

Another clip show what appeared to be a roadblock across the Tehran-Karaj motorway, hit by the season's first heavy snowfall.
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Theyre easing internet restrictions now apparently but my Iranian friend thinks it will really kick off now anyway. Brave people out there, seriously.
 
3 high ranking Iranian/hizbollah dead (including Solomeini). Also arrests of 2(?) senior militia.
 
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