Hurricane Irma

[2hats]

So it's a process that can amplify the storm? (iiuc)

Yes, though in some circumstances it can weaken it.

ECM ensembles now pushing the storm just slightly further west which could spare Miami the absolutely highest winds. Keys to get battered by any outcome. Storm eye could make landfall on Cuba later Saturday for a short time which might sap a little strength.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yep, CNN is reporting this morning that both the North American & European models agree that eye of the storm will hit the West Coast, as others have mentioned it's back up to a cat 5.

As Irma hits Florida, Jose* is due to hit Antigua and Barbuda.

ETA - * winds now 150+mph / cat 4.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yep, CNN is reporting this morning that both the North American & European models agree that eye of the storm will hit the West Coast, as others have mentioned it's back up to a cat 5.

As Irma hits Florida, Jose is due to hit Antigua and Barbuda.

And yet Trump still witters

 

[JTG]

Katia now downgraded to a tropical storm as it moves into Mexico

Evacuation of Barbuda complete

Jose is nearing category 5 strength

Irma has made landfall in Cuba, the first category 5 storm to do so since 1924

5.6 million people covered by evacuation orders in Florida. A quarter of the state's population. Over half a million people in Georgia have received a mandatory evacuation order.

Curfew in effect from 3pm Saturday in Palm Beach

Keys residents told that they're on their own if they don't leave now. Emergency services are being evacuated

On the plus side, New Providence (main island of the Bahamas containing Nassau and most of the population) has escaped relatively unscathed. Southern islands not so lucky.

 

[gentlegreen]

A Key West Kayak angler I'm subscribed to on Youtube has decided to stay put and keep uploading videos as long as he's able to ...

Key West Kayak Fishing

 

[ferrelhadley]

https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf

- 185 mph max winds for 37 hours – the longest any cyclone around the globe has
maintained that intensity on record. The previous record was Haiyan in the NW
Pacific at 24 hours

- 3 day lifetime as a Category 5 hurricane – tied with Allen for 2nd longest lifetime
spent at Cat. 5 strength – trailing only Cuba (1932) which was 3.25 days

- Generated the most Accumulated Cyclone Energy by a tropical cyclone on
record in the tropical Atlantic (7.5-20°N, 60-20°W)

- Generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than 14 entire Atlantic hurricane
seasons in the satellite era (since 1966)

The eyewall has made landfall in Cuba. That means the incredibly destructive 160mph winds are now ashore.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Cloud top temps of the eye were at -83.1C

This reminds me of the film 'Day After Tomorrow', when the cold air descended through the eye and instantly froze anything in the way.

Descending air warms as is compresses. This is why you can get "fohn" winds, winds coming of off high country can be quite warm.

 

[Crispy]

A Key West Kayak angler I'm subscribed to on Youtube has decided to stay put and keep uploading videos as long as he's able to ...

Key West Kayak Fishing

He's a fool. The Keys are just a few ft above sea level and the storm surge will be huge. Everything in that video will be underwater, while 150mph winds blow.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Its missing the warmest waters and will likely track to the west of its earlier projections at a lower intensity. On the other hand Cuba took it full on.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Irma back down to a cat 4.

Cuba has taken a direct hit, whereas it's path had been forecast to be just to the north, early reports are saying that the devastation is a lot like that seen on other Caribbean islands.

 

[gentlegreen]

 

[phillm]

With Hurricane Jose building up in the background I don't think we can begin to imagine what the impact of two catastrophic events would be following each other, very sadly many won't have that luxury. There were very good reasons why ancient civilisations were afraid of the sea.

Hurricane Jose: storm 'almost category five' as it follows Irma's destructive path

 

[Badgers]

Guy I work with is in Florida on holiday. I spoke to him today, asked if he was alright and did he need money or anything to get home. He said 'Nah, it will be fine. I have always wanted to see a hurricane'

His new name at work is Dave 'The Storm' Thorn

 

[phillm]

His new name at work is Dave 'The Storm' Thorn

 

[gentlegreen]

My dad's elderly brother lives in Florida - 136 miles NNE of Key West in "zone B" - people in "zone A" have been evacuated ...

Hopefully he has an attic ...


[

 

[ferrelhadley]

"Half of all storm damage by dollar value in the US is down just 8 events. " (paraphrasing)

It think we can add Harvey and probably Irma to that list.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Irma back down to a cat 4.

Let's remember that a cat 3 is fucking catastrophic, 4&5 are just slightly higher levels of utter devastation.

So far the loss of life across the region has not been half as bad as in past events, hoping it stays that way.

 

[pesh]

someone on twitter last night was likening the difference between a cat 4 and a cat 5 storm as your roof landing 2 blocks away rather than 3.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Let's remember that a cat 3 is fucking catastrophic, 4&5 are just slightly higher levels of utter devastation.

So far the loss of life across the region has not been half as bad as in past events, hoping it stays that way.

Power dissipation of tropical cyclones is cubic with sustained wind speed. A low category 5 is 252km/h and a high category 3 is 208km/h. So ab out 80% more power.

Loss of life is mostly due to water, especially rain and determined by the county it falls on, heavy rains on Haiti like Matthew killed over 500 people. While better prepared countries like Cuba can see a handful of deaths from similar storms.

 

[Miss Caphat]

Does anyone know if Turks & Caicos had been able to get any communication back up? Or how bad their damage was?

 

[ferrelhadley]

A Key West Kayak angler I'm subscribed to on Youtube has decided to stay put and keep uploading videos as long as he's able to ...

Key West Kayak Fishing

National Weather Station in Key West has tweeted this.

It is actually "lucky" for Florida that Irma took a path that helped take some of the energy out of the storm. Terrible for Cuba, normally pretty resilient but a full bore cat 5 eye wall making landfall is a very rare and incredibly destructive event.

This is a record breaking monster storm. Likely to equal Katrina, Sandy, Harvey levels of damage. Its path means its likely to spawn tornadoes across southern Florida. Pray to watever gods you believe in that your friend is alive on Monday. Irma is driving the ocean before it, its low pressure is sucking up the ocean height and its powerful winds are driving storms surges.

Anyway the NSW Key West station that put out this advisory also are hunkered into their purpose built bunker\office to monitor for tornado activity and pass on data to keep those yet to meet this storm informed.

This is their idea of a bunker, built to withstand the eye of a cat 5, above the highest storm surge.

 

[gentlegreen]

I was listening to a local Key West radio station and they pointed out that apart from the direct dangers of the storm, people might want to stop any activity now that might lead to the need for emergency medical treatment - for some people that's going to include just breathing ...

US1 Radio – The Florida Keys Radio Station

They're staying put too - though I wonder if they're actually physically based in their building ...

Google Maps

 

[Pickman's model]

someone on twitter last night was likening the difference between a cat 4 and a cat 5 storm as your roof landing 2 blocks away rather than 3.

Twitter

 

[ferrelhadley]

Next wave coming out the Cape Verde storm factory could be a tropical storm by next weekend.

 

[Nylock]

IRMA downgraded to cat 3 but expected to re-intensify to cat 4 before hitting florida...

 

[cupid_stunt]

CNN reporter in Miami has just said some of the yacht owners are staying on their boats to ride it out.

 

[gentlegreen]

Steve the kayaker in Key West has decided now to stay at a local synagogue ...

https://www.algemeiner.com/2017/09/...irma-fears-potential-loss-of-life-in-florida/

 

[ferrelhadley]

Over 6 million people have been ordered to evacuate.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

Over 6 million people have been ordered to evacuate.

That's about the population of Ireland.
How on earth does that number of evacuees they get out in time?

 

[ferrelhadley]

That's about the population of Ireland.
How on earth does that number of evacuees they get out in time?

BTW this is Huston not Florida. But its how you get a lot of people out of a big city.