Hurricane Irma

[wayward bob]

ECM consistently outperforming GFS modelling again (not a surprise really):
View attachment 115274

looks like the uk met office had the most accurate prediction - it's the only one that had it hitting cuba

US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma

 

[ferrelhadley]

US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma

Max wind 149 knots? That is 170 mph.

That eye wall would be the fist of god.

Maybe I misread that chart. Or its an older one.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

CNN reporter in Miami has just said some of the yacht owners are staying on their boats to ride it out.

If they take their boat out to deep water then take in the sails they should be fine.

Fuck that though. Voms.

 

[kebabking]

If they take their boat out to deep water then take in the sails they should be fine.

Fuck that though. Voms.

Depends on the size of the swells I'd imagine - I have a horrible feeling that those boats would get tossed about to the point that they'd capsize regardless of whether the sails were in.

If they could sail out of the way - like hundreds of miles out of the way - then getting in the boat might be a good option, but I fear it's a bit late for that...

twentythreedom ?

 

[cupid_stunt]

If they take their boat out to deep water then take in the sails they should be fine.

Fuck that though. Voms.

A mate was on this boat ship off Essex/Kent during the great storm of 1987, he was shitting himself, I doubt he would have wanted to be on anything smaller TBH.

Spoiler: It survived

The mast came down a few weeks after, because of damage caused by the storm, that was more scary, I am told.

 

[ferrelhadley]

https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DJTSBfDV4AA6x85.mp4

Cant embed the MP4 but the latest ECMWF has undergoing something close to explosive deepening but not quite making it up to cat 5. So no crazy 149 knots. It will possibly be at or near 153mph, 4mph of off cat 5. But this likely to be pretty variable.

A huge huge amount will depend on when it detaches from the Cuban coast and gets pulled north by the two high pressure ridges that are going to steer it north. This will determine where it makes contact with Florida and how much time it has to fully reorganise.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Water Levels - NOAA Tides & Currents

Seas rising in Key West.

 

[ice-is-forming]

Fuck that!

 

[ice-is-forming]

A mate was on this boat ship off Essex/Kent during the great storm of 1987, he was shitting himself, I doubt he would have wanted to be on anything smaller TBH.

Spoiler: It survived

View attachment 115371

The mast came down a few weeks after, because of damage caused by the storm, that was more scary, I am told.

twentythreedom

 

[twentythreedom]

Half the Caribbean charter fleet is ruined - getting dismasted is shit but at least you're not upside down

An MIT weather professor on the BBC has just explained that at it's peak a few days ago they have estimated that the instantaneous power being generated by Irma was equivalent to about 50% of the total power generating capability of the whole of mankind.

 

[JTG]

Friend's son and partner I mentioned upthread are still in St Maarten. Irma blew the roof off the hotel they were sheltering in with their guests. They are now hunkering down, whereabouts unknown, waiting for Jose. Possibly wearing his Stoke shirt.

Everything crossed for them and everyone else still on the island and Anguilla

 

[phillm]

this is some real crazy shit.....

 

[ferrelhadley]

Apparently the last hurricane hunter flight found it undergoing eyewall replacement.

If that is the case and it hooks north in the next couple of hours, it could undergo explosive deepening.

All about when it detaches from the Cuban coast.

20 million people minus the evacuees could be about to experience hurricane force winds. Some models have it still being hurricane force by Georgia.

 

[JTG]

STATEMENT FROM SONESTA SINT MAARTEN RESORTS
RE: HURRICANE IRMA AFTERMATH

[SEPTEMBER 9, 2017, 6:30AM EST]

Please be advised that communication is sporadic and we are providing you with factually accurate information at the time of receiving it. Information in these statements is relayed to the public within 30 minutes of receiving it. We are speaking directly with ownership and management of the Sonesta Sint Maarten Resorts on the ground on the island.

We understand that you are concerned about your loved ones and it is important to understand that our teams on the ground are concerned too. We all are; this is a difficult time and we are sensitive to your concerns, however it is our priority that guests of our resorts remain safe and secure and their evacuation off the island is a priority. They are in the most comfortable conditions available and they are all provided with security, food, and water. We have diesel fuel for generators to cook food and provide some electricity. Any reports of guests being looted under our care are simply not true. Please let’s all try to help control the messaging together, work closely as a compassionate and caring global society, and make evacuation and safe the priority.

Sonesta Sint Maarten resorts can confirm that Jonathan Falwell, who was an in-house guest of Sonesta Ocean Point Resort contacted Samaritan’s Purse, a nondenominational evangelical United States-based Christian organization providing spiritual and physical aid to hurting people around the world, to provide a DC-8 with supplies and a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) on Friday, 8 September 2017. There were 27 guests of Sonesta Sint Maarten Resorts also on that aircraft evacuated which consisted of the elderly, anyone with a medical condition, women and children first. We would like to thank Samaritans Purse President Franklin Graham and Jonathan Falwell for their efforts.

We can also confirm that 25 United States citizens who were guests of Sonesta Great Bay Beach Resort were evacuated on a United States C130 military aircraft on Friday, 8 September at sundown. We do not have the list at this time. We have been advised that another evacuation is imminent but do not have any further confirmation.

Today, Saturday, 9 September 2017, we have organized a commercial aircraft to further the evacuation of the remaining guests at Sonesta Great Bay and more guests from Sonesta Maho Beach Resort. This plane will depart for Punta Cana, Dominican Republic.

The Dutch Marines have been able to dock a ship and get flights in from Curacao so more troops and supplies are on the ground in Sint Maarten.

The Dutch Marines are in control of the airport and any airline, charity organization or airline who wishes to send an aircraft with supplies, relief teams, etc. should contact the Headquarters of the Dutch Naval Operations based in Curacao at +599 946 37465.

We are currently bracing for Hurricane Jose which is expected to pass over the southwest portion of the island; it is expected that we will experience tropical storm force winds.

Due to the damages the resorts suffered, all further reservations are cancelled and all three resorts will be closed until further notice.

All pre-paid reservations on future stays will be refunded as soon as we can restore operations, pending future updates and situation assessment. All other reservations will be treated per the cancellation policy of the reservation. Please call 1-800-SONESTA if you booked directly or contact your travel agent.

We are keeping consumers informed via our website at: www.sonesta.com/stmaarten and our FaceBook pages at:
Sonesta Maho Beach Resort, Casino & Spa
Sonesta Ocean Point Resort
Log in or sign up to view

Sonesta Maho Beach, Philipsburg, Netherlands Antilles
Sonesta Ocean Point Resort
Sonesta Great Bay Beach Resort, Casino & Spa

 

[ferrelhadley]

People saying its breaking north. I have not seen imagery to confirm it.

Godspeed all in the path of this beast.

 

[gentlegreen]

Bloody great 787 just went over - Orlando to Bristol
I didn't think 787s could even land at Bristol

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

 

[2hats]

Now heading towards the western Florida keys : still has a westerly component.

 

[cybershot]

Now we have katia sprung up in the Gulf of Mexico. Three live hurricanes.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Back at category 4 with 130mph winds. Moving slowly.

Hurricane Irma Public Advisory

 

[cupid_stunt]

Now we have katia sprung up in the Gulf of Mexico. Three live hurricanes.

That one wasn't too bad...

However, Katia took a different direction - southwest towards Mexico City. It was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane late on Wednesday and on Thursday morning the centre was around 200 miles east of the port of Tampico.

Katia made landfall north of Tecolutla, Mexico late on Friday, bringing winds of 75mph. On Saturday, it deterioated to the status of a tropical storm, with winds dropping to around 40mph. It was predicted that it would bring rainfall of up to 6 inches to a mountainous area around 145 miles south of Tampico where it has settled, which has a history of mudslides.

23 photos of the damage in Cuba:
Hurricane Irma leaves Cuba in ruins
including...

 

[2hats]

Both the ECM and GFS have played with José targeting NY next week:

 

[cupid_stunt]

Forecast of Irma's journey & timings:

 

[gentlegreen]

That one wasn't too bad...


23 photos of the damage in Cuba:
Hurricane Irma leaves Cuba in ruins
including...

Puts it into perspective a bit ...

Wall to wall coverage of the storm for days before it hits Florida and for some reason we didn't get that for the Caribbean islands ...

 

[Tankus]

5 nuclear reactors on 3 sites in Florida... 3 of them 20 ft above sea level...

Got to wonder about ancillary protection and on site waste product storage...

It was a loss of power from the similarly designed Japanese plants that screwed them as the onsite less well protected back up diesel generators flooded out..

Plus the enormous tonnage of radioactive waste left onsite in temporary holdings as there was no national safe long term disposal system in place...

Going to be a real safety workout for them

 

[cupid_stunt]

Puts it into perspective a bit ...

Wall to wall coverage of the storm for days before it hits Florida and for some reason we didn't get that for the Caribbean islands ...

CNN has had great coverage on the Caribbean islands over the last few days, I posted this on Thursday:

Actually CNN is doing a great job on their 6 pm news, the first 14 minutes has focused on the Caribbean islands, with only a brief mention it's heading to Florida.

Of course, the focus has now moved onto Florida with live reports from various locations, from muppets getting lashed by the rain & winds, one even having to hold on to a rail to avoid being blown away.

The anchor in Orlando seems smug, whereas the guy reporting from Miami Beach, in safely glasses, clearly got the short straw.

 

[2hats]

Millimetric soundings indicate eyewall replacement is complete. The storm will quite likely re-intensify, particularly given the sea surface temperatures in the direction it is expected to head.

 

[DexterTCN]

Florida sheriff urges people not to shoot at Hurricane Irma

 

[2hats]

NNW motion clear in the current doppler base reflectivity loop:

Bear in mind that the worst winds will tend to be on the NE/E side of the storm system.

 

[TomUS]

5 nuclear reactors on 3 sites in Florida... 3 of them 20 ft above sea level...

Got to wonder about ancillary protection and on site waste product storage...

It was a loss of power from the similarly designed Japanese plants that screwed them as the onsite less well protected back up diesel generators flooded out..

Plus the enormous tonnage of radioactive waste left onsite in temporary holdings as there was no national safe long term disposal system in place...

Going to be a real safety workout for themView attachment 115399

Yep. 20 ft above sea level doesn't sound too comforting. Power cos and US gov say no prob but a mayor is concerned about nuke waste.

FPL said both Turkey Point and St Lucie were designed to withstand storms stronger than any ever recorded in the region and both plants are elevated 20 feet (6 meters) above sea level to protect against flooding and extreme storm surges....But South Miami Mayor Philip Stoddard said he was concerned about the potential for floods to damage power generators at Turkey Point, which in turn might threaten the ability of the plant to keep spent nuclear fuel rods cool..."The whole site is pretty well able to handle dangerous wind, the real problem from my perspective is water," Stoddard said. He said he was more worried about the nuclear waste than the reactors..."The real question is can they keep the spent fuel cool."...........Peter Robbins, an FPL spokesman, said “Mayor Stoddard is wrong. Turkey Point is safe and is ready for Hurricane Irma.”

https://www.streetinsider.com/Reute...uclear+industry+since+Fukushima/13281317.html

 

[Tankus]

Chem trail's are real .....USAF c130's already spraying vast tracts of low lying land around Houston.... And are gearing up for the expected mosquito explosion due in Florida due to the amount of pooled later left in the hurricanes wake..
USAF Has Dispatched Its Air Sprayer C-130s To Texas In Response To Hurricane Harvey
Welcome to the experiment....