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Hurricane Irma

Three reported dead in Puerto Rico. Irma's eye passed just north of the island so it could have been much worse. Same could be said of Hispaniola.

Truly startling to read the statements coming out of Florida. Mayor of Miami Beach basically telling everybody to leave without exception. Hospitals in Key West will be closed from 7am Friday. No helicopters for anybody who hasn't left the Keys by Friday. Mandatory evacuation orders now affect half a million people in Miami-Dade County. Storm surge could be 6-10 metres.

I realise these things are relatively normal (except in terms of scale) but coming from somewhere that just never has to cope with stuff on this level, it's astonishing to read about.
 
ECM consistently outperforming GFS modelling again (not a surprise really):
IMG_20170907_223057.jpg
The latest ECM ensembles suggesting Irma is going to carve straight up the middle of Florida:
IMG_20170907_223023.jpg
 
It's not looking good for Florida right now...

A couple of new points:

One of the stations just announced some of the local hotels are going to have a mandatory evacuation at 6pm tonight. It's for Sanibel and the Islands, which is a 20 minute ride from my house. I work in one of the hotels that is just before the Sanibel Causeway. There will be mandatory evacuations for parts of the state near me (parts of Lee, Collier county... including Fort Myers Beach, Bonita Beach, Sanibel and Captiva).

The hurricane has shifted just enough that they are saying not to tread lightly with this storm.

"Fuel trucks are currently being escorted by state police to relieve those stations currently on low".

Allegedly, Jose isn't going to come close to us, so they say...
 
Jose has strengthened to a category 3. Antigua & Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts & Nevis amongst those on alert.

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for coastal areas of Georgia. They're not taking any chances clearly.

Looks more and more likely that this one's going straight up the middle of Florida - landfall at Miami and passing right over Orlando.
 
Mandatory evacuations for parts of Palm Beach affecting 260,000 people
 
JTG said:
I realise these things are relatively normal (except in terms of scale) but coming from somewhere that just never has to cope with stuff on this level, it's astonishing to read about.
Click to expand...

Quite glad to live in a place where the weather is a bit dull really. Not very much in the way of seismic activity, and the volcanoes are all extinct. Being a bit hacked off at yet another drizzly day isn't really much of a burden, tbqh
 
Seems like Haiti got off relatively lightly. Heavy rain on the northern coast. One bridge (to DR) is out.

Eyewall replacement cycle looks like it might be underway which could lessen storm strength but can be a prelude to subsequent intensification.
 
Irma over the Turks & Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas now. Wind speeds around 165mph, dropped from previously but still a cat 5.

Haiti has experienced a lot of rainfall and high winds but appears to have got away with minimal damage (relatively speaking)

Cuba evacuating tourists from coastal areas and advising people to move inland

RFA Mount's Bay is in Anguilla with 40 Royal Marines & army engineers

Dutch marines are landing aid supplies in Sint Maarten

Some people voluntarily evacuating from Barbuda to Antigua

Jose's path still looks set to cross Barbuda & Anguilla
 
I saw on the news last night that if Irma continues on a northwest course, where she goes past Cuba and up the spine of Florida, Cuba could very well lower the wind speed and make the category 5 hurricane into a 4. I don't know exactly how (or remember the explanation), but I think it was mentioned something about the land mass / water temperature (now coming from the Gulf) / air / etc. That's why a few of the models are saying Florida will be hit with a category 4 before it gets up to the northern part of the state and becomes a 3.

The list is growing longer for the evacuations. News said that "if Texas realized the destruction that was going to happen during Harvey, they would have evacuated people" because there was a 'hurricane in 1995 that hit the state and cities had evacuations. The death toll was over 100 because the evacuation wasn't planned properly, versus the low number of deaths caused by people waiting it out during Harvey' (I'm paraphrasing). That's why people in Florida can't take this lightly, since Irma is massive and "Bigger than Andrew" (Andrew quote from the Governor).

"Fun" tidbit: Irma is double the size of Florida (in miles, width). See USA Today meme from yesterday:
636403976340100550-1vgv2s.jpg



  • Roads still jammed, stores and petrol stations still empty.
  • There's a mixed bag of how many people have left versus how many have stayed.
  • Shelters are opening starting at 9am local time today, but the early ones will be for those with special needs. Certain shelters are allowing pets, but you must have your pets' papers / have had it vaccinated / bring a kennel or container to keep it in / toys / food. Shelters aren't supplying anything for animals. And you must register at some of the shelters first; it'll be first come first serve, and once the registration fills up and they can't add more people, they won't. Problem is, there aren't a ton of shelters being opened. Sex offenders will be housed in local sheriff stations, for those who are interested in knowing "where the pervies are going" since most shelters will be a school.
 
Hurricane hunter observations on Thursday evening showed lower winds in Irma than earlier in the day, and found a distinct double wind maximum, caused by concentric eyewalls. By my count, this may be Irma’s 7th eyewall replacement cycle, and appears to be the first one that has notably degraded the hurricane’s maximum winds. The Air Force hurricane hunter plane in the storm Thursday night found top surface winds near 165 mph on their first pass through the eye near 7:35 pm EDT, but only 140 mph on their second pass through near 9 pm EDT. The pressure stayed nearly constant in the two passes, at 920 and 921 mb, respectively. The reduction in the peak winds is not necessarily a good thing, since the hurricane hunter data showed that the hurricane-force winds of the storm had spread out over a larger area, which will increase the storm surge. In addtion, the fact that Irma maintained its very low pressure may mean the aircraft may have missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane. Total precipitable water loops showed that part of Irma’s apparent weakening may be due to the island of Hispaniola blocking the inflow of moisture from the south, which was reducing the amount of moisture to the storm. This effect will diminish on Friday morning, when Irma moves to the west of Hispaniola. The hurricane will then be drawing air from the south over high terrain in Cuba, but the blocking effect of Cuba is much less than that of Hispaniola. I don't see any reason for Irma to weaken further through Saturday, and it may intensify again to 185 mph winds.
Click to expand...
Triple Trouble: Cat 5 Irma, Cat 3 Jose, Cat 1 Katia
 
"Allegedly" we're only due to get under 2 feet of flooding. Big "allegedly". They're already reminding residents who are staying to not leave the house once the hurricane comes... when the eyewall approaches, it's going to be so nice and calm and pretty, but once the rest of the hurricane approaches, it'll bring winds up to 150 miles per hour really quickly, and that is when people get killed. :facepalm::(
 
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