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Hurricane Irma

Cat 4/5 Keys to Jacksonville.
DJIT21nVYAAjSHO.jpg:large


Big warm pool of water between Cuba and the US, if its in the right shape when it hits it it could re-intensify. Florida is incredibly vulnerable to storm surge. Because of the substructure you cannot really build much in the way of hard defences. They already get serious street flooding on king tides.

I am dreading what will happen in Haiti. That country is the least capable of dealing with something like this and still a lot of infrastructure is in a terrible state from Matthew. I think the Dominican Republic has more tree cover so its soil are less prone to flash flooding and it has a better organised infrastructure.

My guess is of all the countries likely to still be hit, Cuba will have the lowest casualty count. It was the same with Matthew that that track run between Hispaniola and Cuba then veered NW.

The infrastructure and crop damage will be grievous to all the nations it has run close to saving the US.
 
2ea7f52e-28b5-424d-9b97-9e1e83b75252.png


The Turks and Caicos are going to get 4.5-6m storm surge.

Thats seriously dangerous in such a low lying country.
 
Dutch military video of Sint Maarten:



Apparently still very little information about casualties etc from the Dutch side of the island
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
There is a RN ship in the area that specialises in disaster relief, needs to be more than just one though.
Click to expand...

There is, sadly, more than a whiff of the cupboard being a bit bare...

The useful ships for this task are the Bay Class logistics assault support ships - one of which is in the Carribbean - there are only two others, another was sold to the Australian Navy a few years ago. HMS Ocean, the helicopter carrier, would be very useful - she's in the Med on a NATO task but she could be diverted. However the Med is a long way from the Carribbean and she can only do 18 knots at top speed..

The Assault Ship HMS Albion has just come out of extended readiness and is still doing a work up for operations - she would be very good for this task, but her crew have only been working on her as a vessel at sea for a month or so. They would make it work, but again, she's not a fast moving ship....
 
kebabking said:
There is, sadly, more than a whiff of the cupboard being a bit bare...

The useful ships for this task are the Bay Class logistics assault support ships - one of which is in the Carribbean - there are only two others, another was sold to the Australian Navy a few years ago. HMS Ocean, the helicopter carrier, would be very useful - she's in the Med on a NATO task but she could be diverted. However the Med is a long way from the Carribbean and she can only do 18 knots at top speed..

The Assault Ship HMS Albion has just come out of extended readiness and is still doing a work up for operations - she would be very good for this task, but her crew have only been working on her as a vessel at sea for a month or so. They would make it work, but again, she's not a fast moving ship....
Click to expand...

Seems the Dutch have a couple of ships coming from Curacao, but can't dock in St Martin as the harbours are all fucked up.

Really, really bad there :(
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
Seems the Dutch have a couple of ships coming from Curacao, but can't dock in St Martin as the harbours are all fucked up.

Really, really bad there :(
Click to expand...

This is why the above UK ships would/will be so useful - they all have well decks underneath the flight decks, the ship opens its rear doors, let's the water in and landing craft can float out carrying stuff as big as a 70 ton tank.

This is always the big problem is these situations - it's not getting huge quantities of aid to the disaster site, it's fixing or rebuilding the ports, roads and runways so you can actually get it into the ground.
 
You know what makes me irritated? Global Media are extremely focused on a fact the the Irma hurricane is going to hit Florida... This people from poor Carribean countries are just you know - okay, it happend, it is a pity BUT IT IS GOING TO HIT U.S. MY GOD PRAY FOR THEM... I have no words. Or maybe just my observation and I am overreacting?
 
cupid_stunt said:
Talk about bad timing, just found out my niece & her chap have flown out on holiday to Florida this morning. :facepalm:
Click to expand...

I am catching-up with things on CNN, and it's not looking good for the whole of Florida, as the hurricane is wider than the state. I hope Amber & Richard will be safe, it's their first holiday aboard together, what a bugger.
 
cinna said:
You know what makes me irritated? Global Media are extremely focused on a fact the the Irma hurricane is going to hit Florida... This people from poor Carribean countries are just you know - okay, it happend, it is a pity BUT IT IS GOING TO HIT U.S. MY GOD PRAY FOR THEM... I have no words. Or maybe just my observation and I am overreacting?
Click to expand...

I feel the same, although part of the problem is difficulty in getting coverage from the islands ATM, and, of course, UK media outlets are affiliated with various US outlets, so material is readily available.

ETA - cinna, just noticed you are new here, welcome to the nut-house. :D
 
cinna said:
You know what makes me irritated? Global Media are extremely focused on a fact the the Irma hurricane is going to hit Florida... This people from poor Carribean countries are just you know - okay, it happend, it is a pity BUT IT IS GOING TO HIT U.S. MY GOD PRAY FOR THEM... I have no words. Or maybe just my observation and I am overreacting?
Click to expand...

Actually CNN is doing a great job on their 6 pm news, the first 14 minutes has focused on the Caribbean islands, with only a brief mention it's heading to Florida.
 
Other models now gradually aligning with ECM for hit on Florida. ECM also now has José looping back into Florida about a week after Irma has been through.
 
20 to 50 miles difference in path could have a big impact on this storms power over Cuba and the US.

DJIXeN-WsAAWbOo.jpg


The red splotch around the Bahamas, that is water at near 30C.
 
2hats said:
Other models now gradually aligning with ECM for hit on Florida. ECM also now has José looping back into Florida about a week after Irma has been through.
Click to expand...

That path means the Bahams and Cuba could be hit by two cat4/5 storms in a week. Unless Irma churns the warm pool in the post above, then it could help take some of the energy out of the ocean that would have spun up Jose.
 
I'm in Fort Myers, Florida (southwest corner of the state). frogwoman even had a couple mentions of visiting me a few years ago (which she did and I'm so glad).

As of this post:
  • (most) Local petrol stations have been out of petrol since 4:30pm Tuesday (local time).
    • The stations that do have full pumps, have lines winding around blocks. There's 30 minutes+ wait in line. I wouldn't be surprised if the ones that are currently running, are out within the next 4 hours.
    • Also, majority of the petrol stations across the state are in the same predicament - out of petrol & no information when more will arrive.
  • (most) Local big name grocers have been out of necessities (water, batteries, etc) since the same time Tuesday.
    • Same goes with hardware stores - plywood, generators, etc.
  • Regarding airports: If you've been lucky enough to get a flight out, you're extremely lucky. I know American Airlines was waiving a few fees yesterday.
    • As of last night, airports were beyond full of people and could not accommodate the masses. You can leave to evacuate, but no flights are coming in. Again, that's providing you were able to catch a flight. People were being turned away at one point.
  • Regarding travel via roads:
    Under normal circumstances (and according to google maps for time):
    • Tampa is 3 hours north of me.
    • Jacksonville is 6 hours north of me and puts people at the Georgia boarder. Same with Tallahassee.
    • Florida Panhandle (Pensacola area, just west of Tallahassee) is 8 1/2 hours north of me and puts people at the Alabama boarder (Mobile, Alabama is less than 2 hours from Pensacola).

      • Right now, the roads around me are being reported as clear. It's getting to the Tampa area where there is a roadblock. Complete bumper to bumper and traffic stopped. Reports yesterday afternoon said if you haven't left already and are planning to, be prepared to spend an extra 50+hours on the road... just getting out of the state.
  • Regarding evacuations:
    • The Keys started mandatory visitor evacuations on Monday. Tuesday night they started resident evacuations. There's one way in and the same way out.
    • For the most part, the counties have voluntary evacuations. Main counties have been Broward, Miami Dade and Collier. Collier county is close to me, as the main city that "needs" the voluntary evac has been Marco Island. Marco is an hour and 10 minutes south of me. The next town from that is Naples, which is about 55 minutes south of me. I'm in Lee county.
  • Local businesses have been shuttering / boarding their windows and doors since last night. The places that haven't boarded up, have signs on their doors saying they're closed and I've got messages from my various doctors offices saying they are closing today until further notice (Monday / Tuesday, when the storm should pass).

  • My neighbourhood is swarming with construction crews, shuttering houses. I have friends in another part of my development that have evacuated Tuesday afternoon, and as of the wee hours of this morning, they have reached their destinations (inland Georgia, Tennessee).
    • My upstairs neighbour and my immediate neighbours are staying, or at least that's the plan for right now. I'm still staying too. There is a maintenance guy who lives a few units down from me. He runs his own business and since Tuesday afternoon, has been in the process of going to people in the community and doing their shutters. I saw him about 2 hours ago and he said I'm on the list for tomorrow; he has way too many people to do and is short handed (his "3 sets of crews bailed" on him).

That's my update! Stay safe for those who are next in the path (before and after me) and sorry for the destruction of those before me...

Is it wrong I'm not sorry for the richie rich people (Branson and his ilk) that got destroyed, only because they've got more money than god, so it's not a big deal?
 
abe11825 said:
I'm in Fort Myers, Florida (southwest corner of the state). frogwoman even had a couple mentions of visiting me a few years ago (which she did and I'm so glad).

As of this post:
  • (most) Local petrol stations have been out of petrol since 4:30pm Tuesday (local time).
    • The stations that do have full pumps, have lines winding around blocks. There's 30 minutes+ wait in line. I wouldn't be surprised if the ones that are currently running, are out within the next 4 hours.
    • Also, majority of the petrol stations across the state are in the same predicament - out of petrol & no information when more will arrive.
  • (most) Local big name grocers have been out of necessities (water, batteries, etc) since the same time Tuesday.
    • Same goes with hardware stores - plywood, generators, etc.
  • Regarding airports: If you've been lucky enough to get a flight out, you're extremely lucky. I know American Airlines was waiving a few fees yesterday.
    • As of last night, airports were beyond full of people and could not accommodate the masses. You can leave to evacuate, but no flights are coming in. Again, that's providing you were able to catch a flight. People were being turned away at one point.
  • Regarding travel via roads:
    Under normal circumstances (and according to google maps for time):
    • Tampa is 3 hours north of me.
    • Jacksonville is 6 hours north of me and puts people at the Georgia boarder. Same with Tallahassee.
    • Florida Panhandle (Pensacola area, just west of Tallahassee) is 8 1/2 hours north of me and puts people at the Alabama boarder (Mobile, Alabama is less than 2 hours from Pensacola).
      • Right now, the roads around me are being reported as clear. It's getting to the Tampa area where there is a roadblock. Complete bumper to bumper and traffic stopped. Reports yesterday afternoon said if you haven't left already and are planning to, be prepared to spend an extra 50+hours on the road... just getting out of the state.
  • Regarding evacuations:
    • The Keys started mandatory visitor evacuations on Monday. Tuesday night they started resident evacuations. There's one way in and the same way out.
    • For the most part, the counties have voluntary evacuations. Main counties have been Broward, Miami Dade and Collier. Collier county is close to me, as the main city that "needs" the voluntary evac has been Marco Island. Marco is an hour and 10 minutes south of me. The next town from that is Naples, which is about 55 minutes south of me. I'm in Lee county.
  • Local businesses have been shuttering / boarding their windows and doors since last night. The places that haven't boarded up, have signs on their doors saying they're closed and I've got messages from my various doctors offices saying they are closing today until further notice (Monday / Tuesday, when the storm should pass).

  • My neighbourhood is swarming with construction crews, shuttering houses. I have friends in another part of my development that have evacuated Tuesday afternoon, and as of the wee hours of this morning, they have reached their destinations (inland Georgia, Tennessee).
    • My upstairs neighbour and my immediate neighbours are staying, or at least that's the plan for right now. I'm still staying too. There is a maintenance guy who lives a few units down from me. He runs his own business and since Tuesday afternoon, has been in the process of going to people in the community and doing their shutters. I saw him about 2 hours ago and he said I'm on the list for tomorrow; he has way too many people to do and is short handed (his "3 sets of crews bailed" on him).
That's my update! Stay safe for those who are next in the path (before and after me) and sorry for the destruction of those before me...

Is it wrong I'm not sorry for the richie rich people (Branson and his ilk) that got destroyed, only because they've got more money than god, so it's not a big deal?
Click to expand...

My friend Andy is in Fort Myers, hope you all stay safe and keep your heads down.
 
kebabking said:
There is, sadly, more than a whiff of the cupboard being a bit bare...

The useful ships for this task are the Bay Class logistics assault support ships - one of which is in the Carribbean - there are only two others, another was sold to the Australian Navy a few years ago. HMS Ocean, the helicopter carrier, would be very useful - she's in the Med on a NATO task but she could be diverted. However the Med is a long way from the Carribbean and she can only do 18 knots at top speed..

The Assault Ship HMS Albion has just come out of extended readiness and is still doing a work up for operations - she would be very good for this task, but her crew have only been working on her as a vessel at sea for a month or so. They would make it work, but again, she's not a fast moving ship....
Click to expand...
HMS Ocean is being sent - arrival time up to two weeks
 
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