How close are we to war breaking out in Europe?

[cupid_stunt]

Because Boris Johnson as UK Primeminister is talking up war. And Biden.
Have you read what Putin etc have said?
They have repeatedly said they are not invading the Ukraine.

The twat has amassed almost 200k troops on the border, and you seriously believe what he says?

 

[Spymaster]

I don't think anyone should pre empt what might happen.

I do not believe Putin will "invade" the Ukraine.

Quoted for posterity.

Pretty much the entirety of the world's intelligence communities think it's highly likely.

You think it's not because Putin says so!

 

[Spymaster]

The twat has amassed almost 200k troops on the border, and you seriously believe what he says?

Astonishing, isn't it?

 

[Aladdin]

Pre-empt: take action in order to prevent (an anticipated event) happening

Big differemce between taking preventative actions and Boris speak on behalf of all of Europe declaring how close Europe is to the biggest war since 1945.

He has some neck.

 

[Spymaster]

Bonkers!

 

[Aladdin]

The twat has amassed almost 200k troops on the Russian side of the border,

Ftfy

 

[ska invita]

Ah now. The Russians have not invaded. Separatists have been fighting in the Ukraine for what..9 years? What exactly do you think Europe and specifically the UK should do if Russia invades Ukraine?. Most of Europe is talking sanctions.
And then Boris comes along and waffled on about "big war"

Agree...and Big War is the UK government official line:
"“We need to stop Putin because he will not stop at Ukraine"
"'The Baltic States are at risk… the Western Balkans as well."
"He has been very clear, his ambition doesn’t just lead to him taking control of Ukraine, he wants to turn the clock back to the mid-1990s or even before then"
"He wants to go back to the situation as it was before where Russia had control over huge swathes of Eastern Europe"

 

[agricola]

Agree with all of this but that war could provide the context and will for it to begin in at least some form. I think you're right that it's unlikely but it's undoubtedly going to be on Putin's mind. He won't simply dismiss it.

Not dismiss it no, but its not going to happen. He was more concerned about getting his boat back than any financial counter-measures in London.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Disagree. There's more Russian money in London than anywhere else in the world outside Russia. The UK has the ability to deal some devastating financial blows to Russian interests and individuals. Whether they do or not, and what the impact will be remains to be seen, but the UK is likely of more concern to Putin than most other European nations.

That's a valid point, but it washes both ways. Boris Johnson will have plenty of rich chums who would be very displeased to lose their income from washing dirty Russian money.

 

[Pickman's model]

The point is that any suggestion that he, or any other European leader, wants a war with Russia, is beyond ludicrous.

the point is that he'll drag us into one. and there is nothing funny about that.

 

[Spymaster]

That's a valid point, but it washes both ways. Boris Johnson will have plenty of rich chums who would be very displeased to lose their income from washing dirty Russian money.

That's if they do that. As as agricola says, it's unlikely to be the sanction that's taken immediately and if it does get taken it'll likely only be temporary. But what you do have at the moment are hundreds of Putin's oligarch mates shitting their pants at the prospect of asset seizures. That's not an inconsiderable issue for Vlad.

 

[Spymaster]

the point is that he'll drag us into one. and there is nothing funny about that.

The only politicians likely to drag us into a war right now are Russian.

 

[Pickman's model]

That's not what I said, stop being silly.

er it is what you said

More about being pissed off with Germany, and a few others, for not offering stronger support, because Russian gas is like crack to them, and crackheads don't tend to want to upset their dealer.

and there you have it, they are addicted to gas and they don't want to upset their supplier.

 

[Pickman's model]

The only politicians likely to drag us into a war right now are Russian.

bollocks. some weeks back the government was 'we won't go to war over ukraine' but now it's 'we'll supply any ukrainian resistance with weapons'. and presumably training and advisors.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That's if they do that. As as agricola says, it's unlikely to be the sanction that's taken immediately and if it does get taken it'll likely only be temporary. But what you do have at the moment are hundreds of Putin's oligarch mates shitting their pants at the prospect of asset seizures. That's not an inconsiderable issue for Vlad.

It's not just the Russians but every other dodgy fucker around the world who 'invests' in London who would be watching that. I'd love it to happen - Boris Johnson accidentally cleans up the City. But I really can't see it.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Ftfy

No, not just on the Russian side of the border, but also in Belarus, Moldovia, and Crimea.

This last week Putin claimed to be withdrawing troops from the border, which he did, whilst sending even more to replace them, more Russian ships & subs have turned-up in the Black Sea, no one should even think of trusting Putin.

 

[Spymaster]

bollocks. some weeks back the government was 'we won't go to war over ukraine' but now it's 'we'll supply any ukrainian resistance with weapons'. and presumably training and advisors.

Nonsense. The UK were among the first countries to supply Ukraine with weapons "for defensive purposes".

 

[LDC]

Ftfy

Fuck's sake you're fixated on something you dislike so badly it's stopping you being able to tell fact from fantasy.

The paucity of much of the left's understanding and reactions to this is shocking, "Putin is OK but Johnson wants war and is ramping it up to cover partygate or something, oh and Brexit."

 

[bluescreen]

The thing about Putin is that he doesn't have to worry about elections so will be less bothered about losing lives or treasure than anyone else. And Johnson acts as if he doesn't have to worry about elections either.

He is def worried about losing Russian money.

 

[contadino]

Disagree. There's more Russian money in London than anywhere else in the world outside Russia. The UK has the ability to deal some devastating financial blows to Russian interests and individuals. Whether they do or not, and what the impact will be remains to be seen, but the UK is likely of more concern to Putin than most other European nations.

And that places Boris where he's happiest. Smack in the middle of a shit storm, and the difference between this and the last shit storm is that he's slightly more relevant thanks to Russian money.

However, the Tories are compromised (as in funded by Russian donations) and as such I doubt Putin gives a shit what Boris is spouting off. It's purely for the Tory press.

 

[agricola]

That's if they do that. As as agricola says, it's unlikely to be the sanction that's taken immediately and if it does get taken it'll likely only be temporary. But what you do have at the moment are hundreds of Putin's oligarch mates shitting their pants at the prospect of asset seizures. That's not an inconsiderable issue for Vlad.

If that was the case I think we'd see oligarchs taking some action to try and protect themselves against that, and I've not heard of any (here at least). They know whom they are dealing with.

 

[Spymaster]

It's not just the Russians but every other dodgy fucker around the world who 'invests' in London who would be watching that. I'd love it to happen - Boris Johnson accidentally cleans up the City. But I really can't see it.

Aye, the City won't get cleaned-up. I definitely think they'll nick assets though. They'll find themselves in a position where they have to.

 

[Aladdin]

Fuck's sake you're fixated on something you dislike so badly it's stopping you being able to tell fact from fantasy.

The paucity of much of the left's understanding and reactions to this is shocking, "Putin is OK but Johnson wants war and is ramping it up to cover partygate or something, oh and Brexit."

I am not saying Putin is ok.
Where did I say that ?

 

[Spymaster]

If that was the case I think we'd see oligarchs taking some action to try and protect themselves against that, and I've not heard of any (here at least). They know whom they are dealing with.

Like what though? A lot of the assets will be in property which isn't particularly liquid and I'd be enormously surprised if they weren't shifting what they can in more fluid assets out of the UK. Wouldn't you in their shoes? We likely wouldn't hear about that though.

If I were a wealthy Russian with UK investments, I'd be thinking Indian government bonds are looking very attractive at the moment.

 

[cupid_stunt]

bollocks. some weeks back the government was 'we won't go to war over ukraine' but now it's 'we'll supply any ukrainian resistance with weapons'. and presumably training and advisors.

Err, we sent weapons and troops to train the Ukrainian military several weeks ago, in fact we have only withdrawn the last of them, last weekend, do try to keep up at the back.

British troops helping with training in Ukraine will leave the country this weekend, the armed forces minister James Heappey said as he warned that Russia could launch an attack “at no notice”.

Heappey said the small number of UK personnel sent to train Ukrainian troops on anti-tank missileswould be withdrawn, alongside about 100 helping with wider troop training as part of Operation Orbital.

Britain, in common with all other Nato allies, has said it would not fight against any Russian attack, a point repeated by the minister in a BBC interview. Ukraine is not a member of Nato, although in 2008 it was given a promise that it would one day be able to join.

UK troops sent to help train Ukrainian army to leave country

Armed forces minister says personnel will withdraw after fears of ‘no-notice attack’ from Russia

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Nonsense. The UK were among the first countries to supply Ukraine with weapons "for defensive purposes".

yeh. and now they say they're going to supply weapons to any resistance there is after the russians invade.

 

[Pickman's model]

Err, we sent weapons and troops to train the Ukrainian military several weeks ago, in fact we have only withdrawn the last of them, last weekend, do try to keep up at the back.

UK troops sent to help train Ukrainian army to leave country

Armed forces minister says personnel will withdraw after fears of ‘no-notice attack’ from Russia

www.theguardian.com

while you were looking at the guardian from ages back it's a surprise you didn't spot this from yesterday. do keep up old chap.
West plans to arm resistance if Russian forces occupy Ukraine

 

[platinumsage]

yeh. and now they say they're going to supply weapons to any resistance there is after the russians invade.

Good.

 

[Spymaster]

yeh. and now they say they're going to supply weapons to any resistance there is after the russians invade.

Good. Let's hope they're good to their word.

 

[pesh]

UK troops sent to help train Ukrainian army to leave country

Armed forces minister says personnel will withdraw after fears of ‘no-notice attack’ from Russia

www.theguardian.com

genuinely thought that headline was from the daily mash.