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How close are we to war breaking out in Europe?

We had Leeds and The Bomb too:
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^^^
A mate wrote that and it’s as he described. We were certain nuclear apocalypse was imminent and it clearly was on our minds constantly, fuelled by films like Threads and The War Game, and pamphlets like that. We got so used to the idea that we got wryly fatalistic about it. I remember dispassionately pointing out to my best friend that while I, living closer to the centre of town, would be vapourised in an instant, he, living on the outskirt, would probably not be immediately injured but would have a long drawn out painful death from radiation poisoning, so I was the lucky one. :D
This early fear of Armageddon seems to have worked its way through me and I no longer have that fear or anxiety. This seems to have extended to other existential threats such as COVID too. Not that I recommend this kind of ‘therapy’
 
I don't want you to think I'm just batting your concerns away for no good reason. But - as I think I said upthread - we've tended to focus on worse-case assumptions about nuclear war, and that can significantly skew the way we conceive of it. While that might not matter for a bunch of people on a web forum, it does tend to result in us being a lot more anxious about things than perhaps we need to be, or is good for us to be. I did that anxiety thing through the late 70s and 80s, before - slowly - coming to the realisation that nuclear war does not have to be some existential abyss from which we would never escape.

It suits the likes of Putin - arguably, rather more than the West - for that idea to prevail, hence the fact that it has been him making those not-so-veiled threats about it, and to some extent, if the West takes those threats completely at face value, we end up completely powerless. It always reminds me of that bit in The Wizard of Oz, where the wizard is using shadowplay and loud voices to make himself sound like a terrible threat, when the reality turns out to be otherwise.

There's also the issue of practicality. Nuclear weapons aren't quite the same as iron bombs, which you can make, and then pretty much stash in a warehouse for 20 years, get them out, and use them. Quite aside from the missiles themselves - which require considerable effort and expense to keep at a state of readiness - the warheads need fairly constant maintenance on a regular cycle, as do the control systems and electronics. Given what we have begun to see in regard to mundane and comparatively cheap things like vehicle tyres, how confident can we be that the corrupt establishment in Russia has not infested that part of the military responsible for the costly (and thus lucrative, corruption-wise) business of maintaining their nuclear arsenal? It could be that the command and control systems are not up to snuff (Russia's encrypted battlefield communication systems turn out to be dependent on the very 3/4G networks they have been destroying in Ukraine, for example), or that adequate maintenance on the very fragile rockets that launch the missiles has not been done - perhaps only half of them would even get out of the silos. And, if some of the bombs themselves turn out to be "fizzles" due to lack of maintenance, that's another factor to consider. And it's likely that the top end of the hierarchy is not fully in the picture - if some regional commander is trousering the cash supposed to be supporting the refurbishment cycle on missiles, bombs, etc., it's likely that no-one will know about it until the missile blows up on the pad, or the bombs fail to detonate, etc., etc.

There are a lot of other options other than the worst-case one.

There is some hope in your post.

Thanks
 
Growing up in the 60's I, along with most people, believed there would definitely be a nuclear war.

So one Sunday, when my mum and dad were out, I started building a nuclear fall-out shelter. This began with me using a hammer and chisel to dig out an access hole in the concrete floor of the lean-to. Followed eventually by digging a shaft down to an underground bunker. I was about eight years old.

I got belted when my parents came home and found out what a fucking mess I'd made of the concrete floor of the lean-to.

My underground bunker was never built :(
 
There is some hope in your post.

Thanks

I should also say that my own anxiety is very high and I am probably imagining the worst.
I'm awake every night thinking how could I cook without electricity or gas. Where is the camping cooker? Have I to get gas cannisters?
Have I enough food for 3 weeks indoors? What if the reservoir is exposed to radiation? Will the water be ok to drink? Should I buy extra water ?? What about my meds? Will they still be available? Will I die without them?

Honestly if it gets to the stage where countries are tit for tatting with nukes..I will probably want to bury my head in the sand and not know too much.

Reassurances help. Knowing that people dont think the same as me helps. So thanks existentialist
 
I should also say that my own anxiety is very high and I am probably imagining the worst.
I'm awake every night thinking how could I cook without electricity or gas. Where is the camping cooker? Have I to get gas cannisters?
Have I enough food for 3 weeks indoors? What if the reservoir is exposed to radiation? Will the water be ok to drink? Should I buy extra water ?? What about my meds? Will they still be available? Will I die without them?

Honestly if it gets to the stage where countries are tit for tatting with nukes..I will probably want to bury my head in the sand and not know too much.

Reassurances help. Knowing that people dont think the same as me helps. So thanks existentialist
If you're so concerned about it you should see if you can talk to someone about irl as well as here, who can maybe reassure you in person. Obvs it could happen. But I don't think it will and if I'm awake in the night it's usually shit to do with work or my studies that keeps me there. Or worrying about penny-wise hiding under the bed.
 
Worth bearing in mind that the Tsar Bomba was deliberately down-graded by the use of lead instead of further fissile material in the third stage. It was originally intended to have double the output: a barely-fathomable 100Mt
Certainly a good idea to reduce fallout risk to Russia itself; AN602 was a relatively clean burn.
Edited to add: useless factoid of the day - at the peak of its nuclear "burning" the Tsar Bomba had an energy output equivalent to 1% of the sun's output. Can't recall where I read that (it was years ago) s don't ask me.
Order of 1e24 v. 1e26 for the Sun, but only for the first few nanoseconds.

No one is going to drop a 50MT weapon.

Airburst altitude and physics package design make a big difference to relative blast v radiation damage.

The question is: does NUTS inevitably escalate to MAD (which isn't 'classic' global 80s MAD as the stockpiles, let alone active arsenals, aren't anywhere near as large as the 80s peak).
 
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