Greek elections
- Thread starter ska invita
- Start date
Patteran
A nowadays excuse
Interesting from the Economic Intelligence Unit - they're on the wrong side, but they know their stuff, and at least attempt to work with data rather than supposition or bluff.
ska invita
back on the other side
Absolutely - whatever happens from here on in, the door is surely open wide for Podemos in November.
Funny that turkeys not voting for christmas should be such a novelty.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
It's not just that they've a mandate to negotiate , they've no mandate to cave . It'd be unconstitutional now for them to cave. No matter what pressures applied they can just stick their hands up...sorry fritz , I could end up impeached and maybe jailed if I signed that . There's been this referendum thing , and well it's the law .
It's not so much a gun taken from their head , but they can point to another gun that cancels it out . Even though it's their own gun .
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
617818619171479552 is fine you freaks.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
TBH its hard to see how Greece can get better without leaving the Euro (in order to default) - and tbh there is a lot more threat to the Euro from Greece staying in, still facing the same level of debt and continuing to be propped up, than by it being booted out.
This does give them a mandate to negotiate though, which they had to have before doing any deal or being booted out.
Patteran
A nowadays excuse
The Economist suggesting scrip 'a monetary trick sometimes used in such emergencies—issuing temporary IOUs, or “scrip”, in lieu of cash' - used most recently in Argentina after the 2001 default, (alongside the more radical credito barter system).
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Personally I think there's a very important lesson to be learned on the left and it's to take heed . People are looking more now to the political margins and fringes as an alternative . Not all the alternatives there are very nice . The radical right could well capitalise on this too simply by having more of their political act together . The more clever will be emboldened at watching the previously unthinkable happening . If the radical left can't figure out how to take ownership of the political mould being broken others accross europe certainly will . I'd say it's imperative to engage in the type of process you're talking about on the simple basis that nature abhors a vacuum . And if there's a demand there someone will fill it .
A major beneficiary of this will be Marine LePen , no doubt about that . Primarily because she has her act together politically . She's outwardly at least nowhere near as bad as her dad , but a damn sight shrewder politically . This will be as much music to her ears as it will be to Podemos .
Syriza would have likely split without the referendum. They want to serve a full term. This makes that objective more likely.
But leaving the euro is still a huge problem, for Greece and for the rest of the EU. Because they leave the euro, okay, but Greece would still be in the EU and its economy would be even more devastated, devaluation, huge inflation, assets fire sale, banking collapse. But how does this help other Eu governments? Having a country like that on your southern borders.
If the EU don't - in some way - cut Greece a deal with some form of debt restructuring the EU governments and ECB are collectively insane, even on their own neo-liberal terms.
Forex mkts dont seem so worried euro weaker 1pc vs sterling so far ahead of tokyo opening.
But leaving the euro is still a huge problem, for Greece and for the rest of the EU. Because they leave the euro, okay, but Greece would still be in the EU and its economy would be even more devastated, devaluation, huge inflation, assets fire sale, banking collapse. But how does this help other Eu governments? Having a country like that on your southern borders.
If the EU don't - in some way - cut Greece a deal with some form of debt restructuring the EU governments and ECB are collectively insane, even on their own neo-liberal terms.
Forex mkts dont seem so worried euro weaker 1pc vs sterling so far ahead of tokyo opening.
happie chappie
Well-Known Member
IIRC Argentina used the US Dollar for a period.
The slight problem with issuing IOUs is that the people who get the IOUs have to believe that they will be redeemed at some point.
What happens if they won't/don't.
Last edited:
Oh I think there is a lot of potential as far as ordinary folk are concerned, I just don't think any lefties in organised groups in the UK are anywhere close being able to either have policies or communication skills to do it. I don't see any Iglesias, Varoufakis, Tsiprias style-folk in the UK...hopefully I am wrong.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Personally I'd piss myself if it turns out Putin already has warehouses full of drachma already printed . Wouldn't put it past him . If I was him its exactly what I'd do .
No. It would be insane of the Eurozone, a bankrupt Greece inside the EU? How is that better?
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
That Paul Mason broadcast is wishing its own parallel reality into existence.
There was little genuine doubt in Syriza leadership about winning the referendum, Syriza+Plan Beta+ANEL+GD=above 50% (not to mention bonus KKE+ultraleft abstention). If there was the referendum would not have been held. What there was was the blackmail of 'collapse of government and hodge-podge coalition will mean real hell' the Finance Minister clearing his desk etc etc.
The referendum is essentially a facade for Syriza to lock in existing, and impose further cuts onto Greek working class. The Syriza leadership has made clear dozens of times over that it is desperate to apply all the EU's formula but seeks only a slightly longer timescale to bring down the pension level and raise the pension age and various other quibbles.
The only other course Syriza potentially offers, since it wishes to remain in the EU which was stressed again and again on Friday, is deeper austerity for other EU members - the IMF model.
It's scary for the EU, though more acutely for Eurozone, but I think whatever way the cookie crumbles it's going to be the ordinary Greeks who come out the worst.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
TBH I am not sure that it would be that bad if they did go back to the drachma, and being that close to a big trading bloc would mitigate against the very worst aspects. As you say they are still part of the EU so there would probably be a lot of help coming that way, unless of course the vulture funds take over the debt and look to hoover up that.
Also the whole asset fire sale / banking collapse was being done anyway.
MochaSoul
It's being enslaved of your own free will
I think it seems impossible but it doesn't have to be. Maybe, just maybe, it's the way the Eurozone is configured that is the problem. Would it really be that difficult for those heads to figure out ways to allow for the economic disparities between countries?
Patteran
A nowadays excuse
If they work in the shops, can be used to purchase goods & services, & can be used to pay taxes, then scrips become accepted local currency, I guess, & confidence in them builds. A lack of choice will assist this process. Save euros, spend drachma scrip.
Edited to add - there's a bit more about it here, being suggested by Moodys. If capitalists think it's a good idea, there must be a catch.
MochaSoul
It's being enslaved of your own free will
P.S. I should add that I'm not a Euro fan. But then, what i think of the Euro is that it's a great way for already rich countries to sponge off poorer countries. What if that was a possibility that could be done away with?
ETA: I watched this two weeks ago or so. I think the whole conversation is quite enlightening and Varoufakis seems just the right mind to pull something like this off (if he can overcome the bad blood between him and the opposite crowd)
I need bed right now though.
ETA: I watched this two weeks ago or so. I think the whole conversation is quite enlightening and Varoufakis seems just the right mind to pull something like this off (if he can overcome the bad blood between him and the opposite crowd)
I need bed right now though.
ska invita
back on the other side
I think there are serious implications for the technocrats (whose crimes include bringing techno's good name into disrepute)... my limited understanding is that:
Foreign banks might be relatively contagion free now, but there are all kinds of other possible contagions that can occur - i think it is bond borrowing to the southern countries that is now set to rocket....I read a good explanation of how and why this is the case, but I don't remember where or exactly why it is so anymore! Made sense at the time...have a vague idea.... anyhow:
Robert Preston says "And although the ECB is expected to continue to refuse to rescue Greek banks, it will chuck billions of euros at bond markets, to prevent the borrowing costs of other vulnerable euro economies rising too far and too fast." Thats expensive and desperate.
Also if and when Greece does default on its debts that won't be cheap either.
But the key thing is the ideological breakthrough - the potential to reject the technocrats, the reimpowering of public opinion to do so, and the securing of a foothold by a genuine left coalition on the european stage to fight for an alternative model....Considering how propped up the European economy is, and with Podemos waiting in the wings, that is far from insignificant.
Last edited:
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
looks a bit like Spider Jerusalem there. Which surely cannot be unintentional on the part of the artist?
MochaSoul
It's being enslaved of your own free will
looks a bit like Spider Jerusalem there. Which surely cannot be unintentional on the part of the artist?
Hehehe So did I. But I don't really know either.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
The ideological breakthrough - such as it is - is a national one <Greece against the EU core/Germany>.
Unsurprisingly most Germans do not agree with that ideological breakthrough.
In a separate Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey for public broadcaster ZDF on Thursday, 85% of Germans said Europe was right not to have made more concessions to the Greek government. The poll of 1,234 respondents was conducted from June 30 to July 2 and had a margin of error of 2% to 3%.
There is no left coalition, there is Syriza and ANEL a left-right coalition an unusual one granted but still a left-right one - no cuts to the military, no cuts to capitalist firms, no cuts to police, no cuts to the rich within Greece (including Syriza MPs and their portfolios).
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
What it proves is the concept was never conceived as being in the interests of the smaller countries . And was only ever about the big countries being able to dominate Europe , as theyve always tried to do ,without resorting to the usual methods of sending their armies in . Which led to the odd kerfuffle or 2 over the years.
At its core is imperialism . An unruly province has committed treason by not playing the game . It has to be punished and made an example of . Greece has committed the cardinal sin of actually sticking up for itself and refusing to bend to a higher authority that , most Importably , has it by the balls . To do this when they have you by the balls is what enrages them most . That sets a terrible example .
Greece has insisted its the Greek people wholl have the final say on Greek governance . That's a slap in the face to the bods at the top . Seriously not on . A declaration of war pretty much . And that's why the heads aren't in the mood for being reasonable . By asserting Greek sovereignty they're challenging the sovereignty of the federal superstate . That's war talk . They're in war mode . It'll be an economic war ...a siege , a blockade of sorts , using currency as bullets . But it's a war . Because if they don't put the Greeks in their place they'll face uprisings all over . And if the weakest can withstand them and emerge victorious then the entire edifice is fucked . decades of stealth , effort and work down the drain .
Maybe they'll back down from confrontation and offer a bribe instead . But personally I reckon if they lose their ability to rule by fear they stand to lose all . So they'll be unable to draw back from confrontation despite all common sense saying its the only reasonable course . It's a war and that's how wars tend to start . An inability to back down . Whether its an economic war or a military one the personal dynamics are the same .
I think hell would freeze over if you mean the unreconstructed socialists like SWP, Left Unity, most greens, etc, tbh, I think most of what is left of the left won't like to be 'sullied by them
The commentators live from Athens have been appalling, charisma free and clearly biased against Syriza.
Last edited:
Most left thinking people began to endorse (lukewarm for most) the EU when Delors promoted the social model, that is long gone and has few supporters, probably none for the A8 countries, Hungary, Poland, etc.
