Its so blatant, if this country was more politically sophisticated, they, the journos would be seen right through with their patronising neo-liberal angle, but I'm not sure they will for now.
Greek elections
- Thread starter ska invita
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Its so blatant, if this country was more politically sophisticated, they, the journos would be seen right through with their patronising neo-liberal angle, but I'm not sure they will for now.
The Euro was too hastily conceived, but the intentions were never bad: it's far too easy to explain things by projecting sinister intentions on others. The idea of the whole Euro and EU project has been that more integration can bring greater peace and prosperity to Europe. In that respect European federalism is a utopian philosophy and to be fair the reason that the federalists had enough political capital to push through something as far reaching as a currency union was past successes.
The problem with the Euro though is that it needed much greater economic and political integration than existed, exists now or can reasonably expected to exist for the foreseeable future. It was a case of putting the cart before the horse and hoping the horse will follow the cart. Also there was a lack of planning in the fine and not-so-fine details such as the roles of central banks, planning for economic crises and mechanisms for countries to leave the Euro. That the smaller economies are being dragged on the coat tails of the larger economies is the result.
I think things might not end so badly for the Greeks as the doomsday predictions, but it's also true that whatever comes they are the ones who are going to feel the negative effects the most. It would've been the same if they'd accepted the troika's deal, but the question is, which is harder: a rock or a hard place?
ska invita
back on the other side
syriza is a coaltion
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Spot on . Personally I think is unlikely the technocrats will roll over and just accept this challenge . Its an existential one for them in ideological terms . Good..fuck em . Bring it on . Make themselves even more hated than they already are . simply by making the people more aware of them .
One thing these bastards had going for them was their blandness and anonymity . The mundanity of their evil . To bring them out in the open like this , and to demonstrate to everyone across Europe how ,and by who ,and in whose interests this rotten edifice is actually run is a victory in itself . You can't fight them when nobody even knows who they are , or that they exist , that there's just this fuzzy beauracracy somewhere . To draw them out means they can be pointed to and organised against .
not going to happen, you would be shouted down, etc, even raising the issue that protesting against UKIP could be counter-productive would be heresy for the 19th C left and plenty of radicals, too.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
All the fudging that went with the ERM has finally come to roost. They inserted elastic near straining point when these smaller countries went into currency union that valued their currency far higher than it was worth. More sensibly the Euro should have been the German Mark and the conversion would have been each countries exchange rate at the time of the switch.
If the banks collapse tomorrow and everyone loses their money Greece will be totally fucked. It will be unable to buy anything internationally, everyone will want cash as they know lending to Greece would be silly. Not that anyone in Greece will be able to buy anything with cash anyway. If they had any sense the government should have minted and printed drachma already. This has been a possibility for 5 years, and if you are going to bargain hard then you would think you'd have plan B if it fails?
If they don't have a plan B and the ECB tells Greece to get stuffed. Europe needs to start offering humanitarian aid so they can at least feed themselves. Most countries only have a few days buffer of staples before the shops are empty.
If the banks collapse tomorrow and everyone loses their money Greece will be totally fucked. It will be unable to buy anything internationally, everyone will want cash as they know lending to Greece would be silly. Not that anyone in Greece will be able to buy anything with cash anyway. If they had any sense the government should have minted and printed drachma already. This has been a possibility for 5 years, and if you are going to bargain hard then you would think you'd have plan B if it fails?
If they don't have a plan B and the ECB tells Greece to get stuffed. Europe needs to start offering humanitarian aid so they can at least feed themselves. Most countries only have a few days buffer of staples before the shops are empty.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Then they'll continue to be an irrelevance while someone else fills the vacuum . And they can occupy themselves ineffectually protesting against whoever that is while priding themselves on how chaste and pure they are in their political virginity .Personally I've never seen the point protesting against UKIP. Challenging them politically on individual issues by all means , but I view the protests as pointless and counter productive . If anything it bolstered a view that the left weren't an alternative . And the polls seem to have reflected that .
I agree with you btw , you're probably spot on there . If Steve Hedleys a legitimate target these days then the thought of engaging with Ukip supporters just ain't gonna happen within the shouty bubble .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
As someone else pointed out syriza is itself a left coalition . And as its in coalition , for now, with a right wing party it faces parliamentary constraints , for now , on what it can and cannot do . Thems the breaks , that's how parliaments and cabinets work . Its either that , for now, or hand the gaff over to Samaras mob .
And it's not just an ideological breakthrough against the Germans . It's an ideological breakthrough against the lickspittle political classes that rule in places like Portugal , Spain , Ireland , and not least Greece . It was to those countries Syriza initially looked for support , for all their governments to stick together . They turned out, as with all collaborationists , to be his most implacable foes . He refers to Spain and Portugals governments in particular as the " axis powers " . Syriza didn't set out on a national struggle , they openly appealed for an international one . The failure of others to heed that call , for now , was simply beyond their gift . But it mightn't always be like that .
The "axis" have staked their futures on being good slaves , austerities poster boys . And it's they who stand to seriously lose ideologically if Greece pulls this off . Their entire political brand potentially goes down the tubes . Already Samaras is finished . First high profile political casualty of this ideological war . His party mightn't be far behind after revealing themselves as so far removed from the national sentiment . And if they're proven wrong then their brand is utterly finished too .
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Tony Benn's and others argument against the euro was that it placed the ECB outside of direct democratic control and that it institutionalised free market economics within the EU - hard wiring into in the politics of every member state - excluding any alternative ideology.
He was absolutely right; The 2008 crash and the ensuing economic degradation of millions across europe has exposed it as a destructive and divisive folly - ultimately pitting the interests of captial agaisnt humanity, even when it means mass immiseration and political chaos.
AS someone mentioned above - the greek crises has exposed the true, ugly reality of neo-liberal european project. The mask has slipped. It is no longer seen as a grumpy club of gravy train riding, fudging political fixers muddling through with just enough competance to ensure most people's mutual benefit - but a heartless cabal of banking daleks who are quite prepared to throw a whole country to the wall rather than admit their own errors - because to do so would be to surrender their ideological strangle hold.
He was absolutely right; The 2008 crash and the ensuing economic degradation of millions across europe has exposed it as a destructive and divisive folly - ultimately pitting the interests of captial agaisnt humanity, even when it means mass immiseration and political chaos.
AS someone mentioned above - the greek crises has exposed the true, ugly reality of neo-liberal european project. The mask has slipped. It is no longer seen as a grumpy club of gravy train riding, fudging political fixers muddling through with just enough competance to ensure most people's mutual benefit - but a heartless cabal of banking daleks who are quite prepared to throw a whole country to the wall rather than admit their own errors - because to do so would be to surrender their ideological strangle hold.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
There's other possibilities . If it gets that bad then obviously there's little point remaining in the EU . In fact it would be suicidal . There'd be absolutely no benefit to it . At that point there'd be zero downside to leaving .
And then the Russian customs union , potentially currency and all, beckons . With the added bonus that Russia's banning of EU produce no longer applies to Greece and they have an opportunity to immediately capitalise on current geo politics . And possibly play off competing blocs to their own benefit . As is their right .
But no doubt about it Greeks have a massive struggle facing them . It's going to require real sacrifices . However the alternative , never ending austerity for generations with no light ever at the end of the tunnel simply isn't feasible . You can't demand an entire country lives like that . It would drive your people to utter despair . A prison with no hope...it'd kill the country off .
Quite literally. As shown in a graph upthread (which I can't find) worst peacetime economic collapse in history.
Absolutely not going to happen. The only way Greece would join the Russian customs union would be if the unthinkable happened and the EU turned into the Eurasian Union.
Greek membership of the EU is tied to a rejection of both the military dictatorship and the Ottoman Empire.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Not sure opening up of Russian markets would help as Greece is a massive importer. It's grows a lot of food but that only makes up 3% of their economy. Tourism and shipping are their main businesses.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
It's also tied to not having to wait on the next UN food parcel falling out of the sky . And swapping your shoes for a dozen eggs . It's no more unthinkable than Poland , Slovenia or Lithuania joining the EU and NATO .
Empires come and go . This one has plainly over extended itself and it's internal contradictions are coming to the fore like never before . Anyone who can remember the Berlin wall coming down or Mandela taking the walk can remember the unthinkable can be both thunk , and done .
What seems to be on the cards here is capitulate or die . Syriza have up to this point reaffirmed capitulation isn't going to happen . So in political , ideological and economic terms it's war . In order to win that war Greece will seek allies . It won't currently find them in the EU , despite Orban and the Slovaks taking a keen interest in developments . It will have to find them outside the EU , simple as that . Or capitulate .
Syria themselves are the political heirs of the Greek partisans . Who , had they not been wiped out by the British after welcoming them into Athens in 44 , would have taken Greece into the soviet union . A political and economic union with Russia isn't that unthinkable for people who regret it never happened decades ago . The political equation you're referring to is the political calculation of Samaras people ...that political class whose corruption and collaboration destroyed greece . And who have nothing to offer only that type of political calibration .Greece however is in the process of not just a crisis but potential real political change .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Well the opportunity would exist to grow and sell even more . The EU has long paid people not to produce food . There's a big market just sitting there and terms would be favourable .
hot air baboon
Well-Known Member
...seems like the immediate issue is whether the ECB will now resume pumping emergency liquidity ( ELA ) funds into the Greek banks - which are literally hours from running out of money even under the current stringent capital control regime in place - which the Greeks are about to demand they do - or trigger unilateral action by the Greek Central Bank that would amount to de facto Grexit....
according to the latest from Ambrose E-P in the Telegraph they can twist the nose of the Troika by a soft-Grexit of just printing euros as if its their own currency ( basically officially sanctioned "counterfeiting" of euros )
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...U-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html
Syriza sources say the Greek ministry of finance is examining options to take direct control of the banking system if need be rather than accept a draconian seizure of depositor savings - reportedly a 'bail-in' above a threshhold of €8,000 - and to prevent any banks being shut down on the orders of the ECB.
Government officials recognize that this would lead to an unprecedented rift with the EU authorities. But Syriza's attitude at this stage is that their only defence against a hegemonic power is to fight guerrilla warfare.
Hardliners within the party - though not Mr Varoufakis - are demanding the head of governor Stournaras, a holdover appointee from the past conservative government.
They want a new team installed, one that is willing to draw on the central bank's secret reserves, and to take the provocative step in extremis of creating euros.
"The first thing we must do is take away the keys to his office. We have to restore stability to the system, with or without the help of the ECB. We have the capacity to print €20 notes," said one.
Such action would require invoking national emergency powers - by decree - and "requisitioning" the Bank of Greece for several months. Officials say these steps would have to be accompanied by an appeal to the European Court: both to assert legality under crisis provisions of the Lisbon Treaty, and to sue the ECB for alleged "dereliction" of its treaty duty to maintain financial stability.
.....oddly though is that according to this article from a couple of weeks back the unofficial "creating of euros" has already been happening : as Greece had already started running out of collateral / borrowing capacity to drawdown any further ELA funds from the ECB in early June it was plugging the gap by printing euro's in excess of the quota allowed to it by the ECB to the tune of c. EUR 13bn -
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-20/meanwhile-greece-quietly-printing-billions-euros
As Barclays notes, during the same period over which Greek banks lost nearly €30 billion in deposits, banknotes in circulation jumped by some €13 billion. In short, because Greeks are increasingly prone to stuffing their euros in mattresses, a large proportion of the deposit flight has come in the form of hard currency withdrawals, meaning the Bank of Greece is forced to (literally) print billions in physical banknotes : But hard currency printed in excess of NCB quotas (set by the ECB) represents a liability to the rest of Eurosystem and so must be added to Greece’s negative TARGET2 balance to determine the EMU’s total exposure to Greece:
...this is added to the slate being chalked up behind the bar by Mario Draghi in his guest-starring role as Dave, long-suffering barman at the Winchester Club - which was 89bn of legitimate ELA liquidity + 13bn , and may have already reached 125bn in total according to Barclays Bank research quoted at the link...at risk if Grexit occurs...
according to the latest from Ambrose E-P in the Telegraph they can twist the nose of the Troika by a soft-Grexit of just printing euros as if its their own currency ( basically officially sanctioned "counterfeiting" of euros )
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...U-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html
Syriza sources say the Greek ministry of finance is examining options to take direct control of the banking system if need be rather than accept a draconian seizure of depositor savings - reportedly a 'bail-in' above a threshhold of €8,000 - and to prevent any banks being shut down on the orders of the ECB.
Government officials recognize that this would lead to an unprecedented rift with the EU authorities. But Syriza's attitude at this stage is that their only defence against a hegemonic power is to fight guerrilla warfare.
Hardliners within the party - though not Mr Varoufakis - are demanding the head of governor Stournaras, a holdover appointee from the past conservative government.
They want a new team installed, one that is willing to draw on the central bank's secret reserves, and to take the provocative step in extremis of creating euros.
"The first thing we must do is take away the keys to his office. We have to restore stability to the system, with or without the help of the ECB. We have the capacity to print €20 notes," said one.
Such action would require invoking national emergency powers - by decree - and "requisitioning" the Bank of Greece for several months. Officials say these steps would have to be accompanied by an appeal to the European Court: both to assert legality under crisis provisions of the Lisbon Treaty, and to sue the ECB for alleged "dereliction" of its treaty duty to maintain financial stability.
.....oddly though is that according to this article from a couple of weeks back the unofficial "creating of euros" has already been happening : as Greece had already started running out of collateral / borrowing capacity to drawdown any further ELA funds from the ECB in early June it was plugging the gap by printing euro's in excess of the quota allowed to it by the ECB to the tune of c. EUR 13bn -
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-20/meanwhile-greece-quietly-printing-billions-euros
As Barclays notes, during the same period over which Greek banks lost nearly €30 billion in deposits, banknotes in circulation jumped by some €13 billion. In short, because Greeks are increasingly prone to stuffing their euros in mattresses, a large proportion of the deposit flight has come in the form of hard currency withdrawals, meaning the Bank of Greece is forced to (literally) print billions in physical banknotes : But hard currency printed in excess of NCB quotas (set by the ECB) represents a liability to the rest of Eurosystem and so must be added to Greece’s negative TARGET2 balance to determine the EMU’s total exposure to Greece:
...this is added to the slate being chalked up behind the bar by Mario Draghi in his guest-starring role as Dave, long-suffering barman at the Winchester Club - which was 89bn of legitimate ELA liquidity + 13bn , and may have already reached 125bn in total according to Barclays Bank research quoted at the link...at risk if Grexit occurs...
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Just woken up and see the news, first bit of political news that has brought a smile to my face for some time.
Yep, it's confirmed my intention to vote NO in the UK referendum. I was wondering if I could be bothered getting an overseas vote sorted out but the behaviour over the last few weeks has decided me.
Bernie Gunther
Fundamentalist Druid
Jeff Robinson
Marxist-Lentilist: Jackboots and Jackfruit
I bet the bland, grey apparatchiks of Europe's financial ministries hated having a stylish, likeable and charismatic human being in their presence.
ska invita
back on the other side
Yanis standing down looks like another good bit of political maneuvering by Syriza...makes it appear like they're doing whats best for negotiations... but who would replace him? IIRC Yanis was billed as the most centrist/pro-euro of the candidates when the cabinet was formed... other front-runners like Costas Lapavitsas were more explicit about the need to leave the eurozone...
ska invita
back on the other side
Thats really interesting - can a member state of the eurozone start printing euros, without the ECBs approval? Seems like a good back up/short-term plan if pushed to it... that really would piss the troika off!
