Greek elections

[butchersapron]

That cannot be accurate? Surely?

Know soon enough i expect.

 

[butchersapron]

That article i recommended said a syriza landslide could possibly be on the cards due to voters not wanting the doubt to continue or allow the old pro-austerity parties to impose their conditions on their vote:

I wouldn’t rule out a Syriza landslide. The polls have it at 35 percent, so not far from an absolute majority, since the Greek electoral system gives a fifty-seat bonus to the leading party. So it is possible and even probable that Syriza will have an absolute majority.

It is true that it does not have any obvious allies: the KKE has ruled out any alliance, while Dimar, which was part of the ruling coalition a year ago, has been wiped out. So that is one of the difficulties it faces, but we shouldn’t forget that this in its own way expresses a crucial political question: after all, some people want to moderate Syriza’s positions, relying on the concessions it is going to have to make in order to build alliances.

The Greek electorate is aware of this, and it could very well give Syriza a clear majority so it can carry out its program without having to make concessions in order to enjoy a parliamentary majority.

 

[belboid]

That's about 8% unelected parties, meaning Syriza need to be smack in the middle of that poll to get the overall majority

 

[butchersapron]

2:

SYRIZA 36 – 39
ND 24 - 27
To Potami 6.5 - 8.5
Golden Dawn 6 - 8
KKE 5 - 7
PASOK 4 - 6
Independent Greeks 2.5 - 4.5
Kinima 2 - 3

 

[J Ed]

 

[butchersapron]

That chart i posted is really going to be useful.

 

[DotCommunist]

excuse my ignorance, but why the two numbers per party? Margin for error?

 

[butchersapron]

3:

SYRIZA 33.5 – 37.5
ND 25 - 28
Golden Dawn 5.5 - 7.5
To Potami 5 - 7
KKE 4.5 - 6.5
PASOK 4 - 6
Independent Greeks 3.5 - 4.5
Kinima 2.2 - 3.2

 

[butchersapron]

excuse my ignorance, but why the two numbers per party? Margin for error?

It's one figure- in between those two.

 

[butchersapron]

More exit polls at 6-30 btw

 

[campanula]

ridiculously excited by this - the last time I assiduously followed a foreign election was back in '92 (Clinton, ffs) eta - carrying immense hopes and expectations

 

[butchersapron]

4:

YRIZA 34.5 – 40.5
ND 24.5 - 30.5
To Potami 5 - 8
Golden Dawn 4.5 - 7.5
PASOK 4 - 7
KKE 3.5 - 6.5
Independent Greeks 2.5 - 5.5
Kinima 1.5 - 4.5

 

[butchersapron]

All down to how many parties fail to break the 3% barrier then. Unless these exist polls are miles out - which the grouping would not suggest. Another set at 6-30.

 

[frogwoman]

Who are kinima?

 

[butchersapron]

Lots of people - correctly - pointing out these are exit polls and these particular pollsters haven't a good record. But it appears their mistakes last time around were to overestimate the right and far-right and underestimate the Syriza vote (they actually topped the popular vote in that poll).

 

[butchersapron]

Who are kinima?

That's papanderou's break from PASOK - a desperate attempt to get into govt with syriza by pulling enough pasok votes to get a few seats and so into a possible coalition.

 

[frogwoman]

Based on those figures it looks like to retain a majority ND might have to get in a coalition with the fash and one or two of the loony parties...

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Looks like Golden Dawn are neck and neck for third largest party. That can't be good.

 

[brogdale]

Based on those figures it looks like to retain a majority ND might have to get in a coalition with the fash and one or two of the loony parties...

You mean if Syriza fall below 151?

What's the constitutional position? I'm assuming it wouldn't be like ours to invite the incumbent...must be the largest party, right?

 

[campanula]

GD does appear to have diminished in power in the last year and, given the percentages of far right parties across the EU, the numbers, while still disturbing, seem less pernicious than other rightwing, anti-immigration parties across the EU

 

[belboid]

Based on those figures it looks like to retain a majority ND might have to get in a coalition with the fash and one or two of the loony parties...

they can't get a majority - they'd have to ally with the KKE and the nazi's

 

[belboid]

Looks like Golden Dawn are neck and neck for third largest party. That can't be good.

probably fourth, maybe even fifth. They're holding onto their vote, but not gaining anything. Not a great result, but not an awful one either.

 

[butchersapron]

You mean if Syriza fall below 151?

What's the constitutional position? I'm assuming it wouldn't be like ours to invite the incumbent...must be the largest party, right?

Largest party gets first chance, then 2nd,then 3rd (even if GD)

 

[brogdale]

Largest party gets first chance, then 2nd,then 3rd (even if GD)

Yep cheers, just got that from DW...

In the event that no party wins the 151 seats needed to have an absolute majority, the top party must find partners to form a coalition government. If it fails to do so after three days, the party that came in second will have the same opportunity and then, if need be, the third-placed party.

Froggy needn't worry.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Is there a good link anywhere which sets out the timelines and negotiation points at which Syriza would start arguing with bondholders? I know there's 320bn of debt involved but I don't know whether it gets serviced in a trickle or in tranches.

 

[J Ed]

 

[Kaka Tim]

All the exit polls looking very good for Syriza. Hope they've got some canny political operators cos they are going to have to the ECB, the greek plutocariat and large parts of the countries political and security establishment out to get them. Plus foreign spooks meddling.

 

[elbows]

BBC live updates page has a Greek State TV graphic showing 45.3% of unemployed voters went with Syriza, and this:

"Triumph for euro-horror Tsipras": headline in Germany's biggest circulation tabloid Bild.

 

[frogwoman]

My worry is they'll turn around and say 'well we said we were going to refuse to implement austerity, get out of the euro etc, but things have changed...' As we've seen from lefty parties elsewhere.

Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised though. Gonna be difficult with almost no international backing though

 

[Maurice Picarda]

That's probably what they were expecting to do in coalition. Now they've got a majority and they'll have to follow through with tax holidays and all sorts of promises on top of the proposed debt renegotiation.