Greek elections

[chilango]

The counter culture over time here in the U.K has run all sorts of projects, soup kitchens, advice drop ins, cultural centres, the problem is/was, that many of its volunteers were young and transient , moved into middle class professions,etc, and of course some activities were for the benefit of the above. Now, young people and others are having to work all hours to survive or fulfil onerous and petty benefit conditions. However, if the Tories are re-elected, and Osbornes war on the state continues, 20 billions of welfare cuts, we will see some of the DIY culture re-remerge here, and it won't just be counter-cultural.,

Big Society.

 

[vanya]

The ultimate secret of the financial crisis, the thing that nobody anywhere wants to talk about is this: if a country gets into a credit crisis, defaulting on its debts is the one option that consistently leads to recovery.

That statement ought to be old hat by now. Russia defaulted on its debts in 1998, and that default marked the end of its post-Soviet economic crisis and the beginning of its current period of relative prosperity. Argentina defaulted on its debts in 2002, and the default put an end to its deep recession and set it on the road to recovery. Even more to the point, Iceland was the one European country that refused the EU demand that the debts of failed banks must be passed on to governments; instead, in 2008, the Icelandic government allowed the country’s three biggest banks to fold, paid off Icelandic depositors by way of the existing deposit insurance scheme, and left foreign investors twisting in the wind. Since that time, Iceland has been the only European country to see a sustained recovery.

If Greece defaults on its debts and leaves the Euro, in turn, there will be a bit of scrambling, and then the Greek recovery will begin. That’s the reason the EU has been trying so frantically to keep Greece from defaulting. Once the Greek default happens, the other southern European nations that are crushed by excessive debt will line up to do the same. There will be a massive stock market crash, a great many banks will go broke, a lot of rich people and an even larger number of middle class people will lose a great deal of money, politicians will make an assortment of stern and defiant speeches, and then the great European financial crisis will be over and people can get on with their lives.

 

[treelover]

The tragedy is that the years of austerity have not allowed that, and may even have fostered the fallacious idea that Greece’s problems are about bad debts and busted banks. If only. Greece’s problem, as with much of Western Europe, is its fundamental uncompetitiveness. Otherwise so volubly defiant, Mr Tsipras has little to say about that

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...nal-humiliation-is-a-hollow-one-10000092.html

Independent goes more right wing under its new editor

 

[phildwyer]

Anyone who uses the word "uncompetitiveness" in an economic sense is a scumbag.

 

[phildwyer]

Anyone who uses the word "uncompetitiveness" in an economic sense is a scumbag.

As the article goes on to confirm:

"Mr Tsipras is going to be taking on Angela Merkel and the Germans. Good luck with that, Alexis."

Yes, because bowing to German demands has proved such a good idea in the past hasn't it?

"The Greek people should understand that no popular mandate will wipe out Greece’s debts. Only its creditors can do that, or at least only they can do so legitimately."

Yes, because the Greek people voted to take on the debt didn't they?

I can't go on. FFS, this ridiculous idea that telling your creditors to fuck off is some dangerous, immoral or unprecedented act. Have these people never heard of Fidel Castro?

 

[phildwyer]

The ultimate secret of the financial crisis, the thing that nobody anywhere wants to talk about is this: if a country gets into a credit crisis, defaulting on its debts is the one option that consistently leads to recovery.

Here's another secret: there are no enforceable penalties when a sovereign nation defaults. The Germans have nothing to threaten them with.

 

[Ole]

If Syriza fail to secure 151 seats for a majority, what could their next plan of action be?

 

[DownwardDog]

Here's another secret: there are no enforceable penalties when a sovereign nation defaults. The Germans have nothing to threaten them with.

They will have higher future borrowing costs as the risk of another default will be priced in. So there will be no consequences as long as Greece never needs to borrow any money again.

 

[phildwyer]

They will have higher future borrowing costs as the risk of another default will be priced in. So there will be no consequences as long as Greece never needs to borrow any money again.

Nope. That's what would happen to an individual. It's not what happens to a sovereign state. States can and do borrow money based on factors other than credit-worthiness.

 

[DownwardDog]

Nope. That's what would happen to an individual. It's not what happens to a sovereign state. States can and do borrow money based on factors other than credit-worthiness.

A Greek 10 year yields about 8%. If they tell their creditors to stick it on Monday do you seriously think the capital markets will be ready to lend to them again at 8% on Tuesday?

Argentinian bond yields went to 35+% after their default.

 

[peterkro]

A Greek 10 year yields about 8%. If they tell their creditors to stick it on Monday do you seriously think the capital markets will be ready to lend to them again at 8% on Tuesday?

Argentinian bond yields went to 35+% after their default.

It's not had much coverage in the MSM but China has been using Greece as a beachhead into Europe for some time (port facilities etc) and I believe will be in like Flynn given the opportunity .

 

[Bernie Gunther]

I'm a bit out of date on the subject, but how have the overall pros and cons of the Argentine default shaken out from an ordinary citizen's point of view?

Anyone got a recent overview to recommend?

 

[DotCommunist]

I was reading about that, apparently at one point localist currencies\parralel exchanges were being used because the peso was donald ducked

 

[Bernie Gunther]

I know they're trying to downplay the possibility at the moment, but I really do think some sort of default is likely to be the only workable solution for non-elite Greeks. Hence I think it might be interesting to look at Argentina and other historical sovereign debt defaults (which would include Germany if I recall right)

 

[ska invita]

A Greek 10 year yields about 8%. If they tell their creditors to stick it on Monday do you seriously think the capital markets will be ready to lend to them again at 8% on Tuesday?

Argentinian bond yields went to 35+% after their default.

theres always the Chinese to ask...

 

[phildwyer]

A Greek 10 year yields about 8%. If they tell their creditors to stick it on Monday do you seriously think the capital markets will be ready to lend to them again at 8% on Tuesday?

But as I say, unlike individuals, sovereign states can get credit based on factors other than credit-worthiness.

Realpolitik is one. Ideology is another. If I were Tsipras I'd be buddying up to Iran and Venezuela right about now. Greece will have no problem borrowing more money.

 

[butchersapron]

This long interview is one to really read before tonight:

Greece: Phase One

With Syriza approaching the gates of power in Greece, the Internet has been full of analyses, opinion pieces, and endorsements and denunciations. In this interview with Stathis Kouvelakis conducted earlier this month, we take a critical distance to understand the origins, trajectory, and possible challenges of this political formation.

To do this, we have not hesitated to delve into some of the internal complexities of the astonishingly diverse Greek radical left. But Kouvelakis also talks to us about some of the immediate and concrete challenges that will face the party once in power.

Kouvelakis is a member of the central committee of Syriza and a leading member of its Left Platform. He teaches political theory at King’s College London and is the author of Philosophy and Revolution from Kant to Marx and coeditor of Lenin Reloaded and Critical Companion to Contemporary Marxism. He was interviewed for Jacobin by Sebastian Budgen, an editor for Verso Books who serves on the editorial board of Historical Materialism.

 

[phildwyer]

It's not had much coverage in the MSM but China has been using Greece as a beachhead into Europe for some time (port facilities etc) and I believe will be in like Flynn given the opportunity .

Of course they will. And the Germans know it.

There's also the strong possibility that a Syriza victory would trigger similar anti-capitalist movements in other EU countries, in which case the Merkelites might find themselves becoming unfashionable quite quickly.

 

[DotCommunist]

Of course they will. And the Germans know it.

There's also the strong possibility that a Syriza victory would trigger similar anti-capitalist movements in other EU countries, in which case the Merkelites might find themselves becoming unfashionable quite quickly.

been wondering if a syzria victory might be a boost for podemos as it happens, can't hurt em anyways

 

[coley]

Of course they will. And the Germans know it.

There's also the strong possibility that a Syriza victory would trigger similar anti-capitalist movements in other EU countries, in which case the Merkelites might find themselves becoming unfashionable quite quickly.

Don't think they are popular in those parts already

 

[phildwyer]

This long interview is one to really read before tonight:

Greece: Phase One

A fine article. But I find this slightly concerning:

"... cadres who have come from this youth wing make up a good part of Tsipras’s entourage. They are characterized by real ideological radicalism, and they identify with Marxism, mostly of an Althusserian hue."

The last government to be led by cadres "of an Althusserian hue" was Pol Pot's (PP was a student of Althusser's in Paris). Those Greeks need to pick up their Adorno sharpish.

 

[nino_savatte]

Independent goes more right wing under its new editor

"Uncompetitiveness" is one way of saying there is no alternative to the race to the bottom. Fuck The Independent.

 

[DrRingDing]

Syriza 6 points ahead in exit polls.

That wont be enough to form a decent majority to form a Government. Who will they form a coalition with?

KKE won't get into bed.

Potami is too pro-European.

Pasok surely can't be an option.

There's a party called Independent Greeks but i know fuck all about them.

 

[butchersapron]

They're greek-UKIP.

 

[phildwyer]

Pasok surely can't be an option.

Pasok may split if Syriza are elected.

 

[DrRingDing]

Pasok may split if Syriza are elected.

Hopefully Labour will take that as a warning if they continue with austerity.

 

[belboid]

A 6% lead might just be enough to form a majority government. Otherwise it'll be Potami

 

[brogdale]

been wondering if a syzria victory might be a boost for podemos as it happens, can't hurt em anyways

From the interview BA linked to...when asked if 'socialism in one country' could possibly work for Greece, Kouvelakis said...

...it will certainly be tough for Greece, but still manageable if there is a strong level of social support for the objectives put forth by the government and political level.

Greece, with a left-wing government moving in that direction, will provoke an enormous wave of support by very large sectors of public opinion in Europe, and it will energize to an extent that we cannot imagine the radical left in countries where you have the potential for it to intervene strongly.

Spain is the most obvious candidate for an extension of a Greek type of scenario, but I think that, even if it seems at present unlikely, France is also a potentially weak link in the EU, if the wind from the south blows sufficiently strongly.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

A 6% lead might just be enough to form a majority government. Otherwise it'll be Potami

yep Syriza are not anti EU and Potami could help them implement some more moderate neo-liberal policies without taking the full blame from their more radical and naive supporters.

I have to wonder if a Syriza led government is more likely to see a split in Syriza than Pasok as they disappoint people to their left, right, and centre.

 

[Rimbaud]

The last government to be led by cadres "of an Althusserian hue" was Pol Pot's (PP was a student of Althusser's in Paris). Those Greeks need to pick up their Adorno sharpish.

I don't think it makes any sense to compare Greece in 2015 to Cambodia in the 70s. Very, very different situations.