Greek elections

[phildwyer]

I'd be surprised if said 'neo-liberal forces within Greece' weren't getting some external help at this point in the game.

I'm sure they are, but I wonder about the nature of that "help." I'm sure there are pro-troika pollsters and campaigners at work, but austerity is a pretty hard thing to sell--"Vote for Poverty." I reckon most of the "external help" will be coercive, indeed military, in nature.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I'd be surprised if said 'neo-liberal forces within Greece' weren't getting some external help at this point in the game.

Indeed. See how their recent street protests are generally described by the media as "pro-EU" rather than "pro-austerity".

 

[TopCat]

The ECB started accepting Greek Govt bonds as collateral for loans to the Greek Central bank some years ago. It's the ECB that's getting stung by over a 100 Billion Euros next week when it all falls over.

 

[Pickman's model]

The ECB started accepting Greek Govt bonds as collateral for loans to the Greek Central bank some years ago. It's the ECB that's getting stung by over a 100 Billion Euros next week when it all falls over.

they can use all the bonds as toilet paper then.

 

[J Ed]

Discussion of run on banks in Greece here with some pictures

 

[gosub]

Tspiras has called a referendum for July 5.

I think it's a mistake myself, he already has a mandate. On the other hand, if he gets a thumping majority for defying the usurers it might well encourage les autres.

Not sure the EUrozone is going to play ball, a bunch of finance ministers supports the idea that democracy trumps money, a path that will in their view lead to trouble.

Greece can't get to July 5th without making debt repayments, and if EUrozone won't sub them til then, referendum will be on whether it would have been a good idea or not to have shut the stable door now the horse has bolted

 

[J Ed]

Absolutely bizarre right-wing narrative seems to be developing around Syriza putting their party before their country because they won't accept demands that even the former neoliberal servants par exemple in ND would not accept.

 

[belboid]

referendum was always likely to be on the cards at some point, and this was the most likely point. Given the facts that the troika were never going to allow Syriza to implement anything like the programme they were elected on, and the fact that most Greeks want to stay in the Euro, there's an unavoidable contradiction that Syriza cannot solve. They (rightly) can't sell the troika's appalling proposal, and they can't say we must leave the Euro (even tho they obviously must), so it was always going to be a case of 'let the people decide'. Fairly well played on their part.

 

[ska invita]

Absolutely bizarre right-wing narrative seems to be developing around Syriza putting their party before their country because they won't accept demands that even the former neoliberal servants par example in ND would not accept.

from what ive seen of right wing commentary there is plenty that has been encouraging a grexit right from the off....lots of brexit people support this too...dont think there is one Right Wing Narrative (not saying you are saying there is only one) - there are a variety of positions depending what particular thing interests them most (defending Troika interests/rubbish the EU/hardline financial realism etc)

 

[Roadkill]

from what ive seen of right wing commentary there is plenty that has been encouraging a grexit right from the off....lots of brexit people support this too...dont think there is one Right Wing Narrative (not saying you are saying there is only one) - there are a variety of positions depending what particular thing interests them most (defending Troika interests/rubbish the EU/hardline financial realism etc)

I reckon a lot of the anti-EU right here are secretly hoping that Tsipras is right and that 'Grexit' will unleash mayhem in the Eurozone, which will either make it easier for them to make the case for 'Brexit' or cause the whole thing to come apart and save them the trouble! Somewhere nearer reality, the reason things have reached the point they have is that Merkel and co think the opposite is the case now, and therefore feel strong enough to tell the Greeks to take or leave what's on offer. I don't see what alternative Tsipras has to calling a referendum now: he's caught between the rock of his own electorate and the hard place of the Troika.

 

[Roadkill]

I'd be surprised if said 'neo-liberal forces within Greece' weren't getting some external help at this point in the game.

Perhaps oddly, one of the key 'neo-liberal forces' has something of an ally in Syriza, in the shape of the Greek shipping magnates. Greece has the largest merchant fleet in the world, albeit mostly flagged out. The Troika is pressing for an end to its very favourable tax treatment. Syriza doesn't want to do that for fear of sending them all abroad completely (although I can't imagine they have much love for a bunch of tax-dodging plutocrats who've sat on their private islands and watched from afar as the lines lengthen at the soup kitchens), but has come up with a compromise proposal. Quite how that's fared in the last few days of negotiations I don't know.

 

[Coolfonz]

Referendum also, probs, saves a Syriza govt. Either way yes or no Syriza enacts `will of Greek people` (such as is) and can retain power.
Obvs best thing is as large majority as poss one way or the other.

How much of the debt talks have really been about debt and how much about unseating Syriza?

Previous Greek govt Panandreou (iirc) wanted referendum on `bailout` and was effectively thrown out by EU/ECB.

 

[J Ed]

Referendum also, probs, saves a Syriza govt. Either way yes or no Syriza enacts `will of Greek people` (such as is) and can retain power.
Obvs best thing is as large majority as poss one way or the other.

How much of the debt talks have really been about debt and how much about unseating Syriza?

Previous Greek govt Panandreou (iirc) wanted referendum on `bailout` and was effectively thrown out by EU/ECB.

Yep, and now the one month extension has been called. They don't like the people having their say, it provides a dangerous precedent

 

[kebabking]

...They don't like the people having their say, it provides a dangerous precedent

which people?

just the Greeks? or the German electorate who don't seem too enamoured of this process, or indeed the Brazilian government (presumably reflecting some public sentiment..) who have made unhappy noises about their contributions to the IMF being kicked down the road to keep the Greek electorate happy?

so which people should and should not have their say?

 

[gosub]

IMF are the biggest losers in this, NOBODY has defaulted on what has been the world's lender of last resort, should never have got involved at the stage they did, should have waited til Greece had its own currency to devalue.

 

[Coolfonz]

Germans are all at home/in cafes/walking baby in park, work the shortest hours in Europe. Lazy laaazy Germans, `ooh its midday time to get up` *hit snooze*.

 

[brogdale]

IMF are the biggest losers in this, NOBODY has defaulted on what has been the world's lender of last resort, should never have got involved at the stage they did, should have waited til it had its ow currency to devalue.

How on earth can the IMF possibly be cast as the losers in this (Greek) tragedy? It exists solely as a key driver of the neo-liberal agenda, funded by made- up digits created by 'believer' states. Arrant tosh.

 

[gosub]

How on earth can the IMF possibly be cast as the losers in this (Greek) tragedy? It exists solely as a key driver of the neo-liberal agenda, funded by made- up digits created by 'believer' states. Arrant tosh.

Not much scope as lender of last resort once the precedent is set that you can default on paying it back.

 

[brogdale]

Not much scope as lender of last resort once the precedent is set that you can default on paying it back.

Good. If that helps to undermine the supra-national infrastructure that enables private debt to be socialised into public debt, I welcome it's demise. High time the international monetary system were challenged.

 

[J Ed]

which people?

The peoples of the EU in general.

 

[kebabking]

The peoples of the EU in general.

and how do you think they'd vote?

i don't object to the idea that the Greek people should get to determine their future, SYRIZA face a shit choice and i don't envy them one bit - however the stupidly late decision to hold a referendum is just arse-covering and political cowardice. it will be a referendum over whether or not it would have been a good idea to accept the bailout with SYRIZA blaming everyone but themselves for the ATM's not working.

 

[J Ed]

 

[J Ed]

and how do you think they'd vote?

Vote on what? All I was saying that I do not think that the EU likes the principle of democratic control over the economy, which is why they got rid of Papandreou in the first place

 

[J Ed]

and how do you think they'd vote?

i don't object to the idea that the Greek people should get to determine their future, SYRIZA face a shit choice and i don't envy them one bit - however the stupidly late decision to hold a referendum is just arse-covering and political cowardice. it will be a referendum over whether or not it would have been a good idea to accept the bailout with SYRIZA blaming everyone but themselves for the ATM's not working.

They probably should have held a referendum earlier but saying that Greece is at fault here is basically victim blaming. Demands were made of Greece that the Troika knew could not be met, because they wanted to bring down a left-wing government.

 

[gosub]

and how do you think they'd vote?

i don't object to the idea that the Greek people should get to determine their future, SYRIZA face a shit choice and i don't envy them one bit - however the stupidly late decision to hold a referendum is just arse-covering and political cowardice. it will be a referendum over whether or not it would have been a good idea to accept the bailout with SYRIZA blaming everyone but themselves for the ATM's not working.

Now that EU has ruled out an extension til after the referendum, you may well be right, but I suspect that nice Mr Putin will come up with a bridging loan to see Greece through the week. If that happens I think the Greeks will vote no.

 

[belboid]

Germans are all at home/in cafes/walking baby in park, work the shortest hours in Europe. Lazy laaazy Germans, `ooh its midday time to get up` *hit snooze*.

German workers have actually suffered a decade of stagnating wages and job losses. they aren't gaining from the EU stitch up. german bosses, however...

 

[belboid]

and how do you think they'd vote?

i don't object to the idea that the Greek people should get to determine their future, SYRIZA face a shit choice and i don't envy them one bit - however the stupidly late decision to hold a referendum is just arse-covering and political cowardice. it will be a referendum over whether or not it would have been a good idea to accept the bailout with SYRIZA blaming everyone but themselves for the ATM's not working.

why is it late? they had another kind of referendum - ie an election - less than six months ago, and it delivered a fairly clear mandate which Syriza have attempted to enact. They had to hold the actual negotiations before they could put forward any other referendum, which is just what they've done. They're pretty much bang on schedule

 

[gosub]

If the money doesn't come from somewhere by Tuesday damage is done and the referendum an irrelevance

 

[belboid]

Another good piece from Mr Mason - http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/tsipras-referendum-5-july/3968#more-3968

 

[kebabking]

why is it late? they had another kind of referendum - ie an election - less than six months ago, and it delivered a fairly clear mandate which Syriza have attempted to enact...

they had an election in which the winning answer was 'you can have what you want, and it won't cost you a penny'. it turns out that that answer wasn't available - amazingly.

its a bit late to ask again with a new question - 'which flavour of shit sandwich would you prefer?'. as it stands Greek banks, and the Greek government will be out of money by wednesday/thursday, and the offer they wish to hold a referendum on on the following Sunday will no longer be available - so yes, i think that broadly falls into the catagory of 'too late'.