I did a bit of digging to check something out, and confirmed that Greece now has the most actual cash in circulation that it has ever had in the country since the Eurozone started, twice as much as before the financial crash.
It doesn't need a bank bailout as such, it just needs the confidence restored in its banks so that the people and businesses will pay their cash back into the banks rather than hoarding it.
There's more actual cash per capita in circulation in Greece now than exists in printed UK sterling per head of UK population.
This is what happens when fractional reserve banking goes tits up, without a central bank willing to print money if required to keep the banks afloat. Ultimately you can't run a 216 billion Euro economy from even 26 billion of cash as a cash only economy, with most of that cash being hoarded in case the worst happens. The economy is built on the foundations of fractional reserve banking, it can't survive once the confidence in the banks has gone as no banks have enough cash to payout all the deposits they hold.
The ECB has completely disregarded it's responsibilities as the central bank for the entire Eurozone, it can't just allow any member states banks to run out of cash as some sort of bargaining tool with that government, the economic consequences of doing that are pretty mind blowing if it actually does result in the entire Greek banking sector being completely destroyed, and the country reverting to a cash only economy.
Fuck knows how much money the ECB will now have to pump into the Greek banks to keep them afloat if capital controls were to be removed now that they've destroyed all semblance of confidence in the Greek banking sector, but I think I'm reading the figures right in showing that total deposits within Greek banks were EUR 123 billion in May including EUR 83 billion of instant access deposits, and 40 billion of loner term savings. So if everyone decided to take all their money out at once that would need £83 billion Euros of hard currency from the ECB, which is a hell of a lot more than the few billion that would have been needed to have just shored the banks up and reassured the Greek people there wasn't a problem, their money was protected etc.
I'm still in shock at how utterly nuts this situation has become, it's like the ECB and Eurozone ministers are just randomly kicking cards out from the base of the house of cards that the entire EU (and really world) economy is based on without any thoughts for the potential consequences of their actions.
Unless the ECB completely changes tack and pumps fuckloads of Euros into the Greek banks, I can't see a way out from this that doesn't involve a return to the drachma, with all bank deposits converted to drachmas, and printing presses running full tilt, with the cash based Euro economy still operating to recycle the existing 26 billion Euros within the Greek economy. I suspect Varoufakis could have masterminded that sort of an option, I doubt Tsipras could.
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