Greek elections

[gosub]

From the Guardian so take with caution.

How would any of the politicians that pushed for a Nai, justify voting it down?

 

[redsquirrel]

How would any of the politicians that pushed for a Nai, justify voting it down?

What? How would someone who pushed for opposition to austerity vote against an agreement proposing more austerity? Very easily I would have thought.

 

[gosub]

What? How would someone who pushed for opposition to austerity vote against an agreement proposing more austerity? Very easily I would have thought.

No, Oxi was against doing the deal that wasn't on the table. Nai favoured it.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

No, Oxi was against doing the deal that wasn't on the table. Nai favoured it.

So voting no to austerity as outlined in deal #1 was in fact equivalent to voting yes to deal #2, which has just as much austerity as the first? Um... right, ok.

 

[gosub]

So voting no to austerity as outlined in deal #1 was in fact equivalent to voting yes to deal #2, which has just as much austerity as the first? Um... right, ok.

only with debt write off on the table and complete economic collapse the alternative.

There will be Oxi supporters that are gutted, but only need half to grasp TNA.

 

[Humberto]

only with debt write off on the table and complete economic collapse the alternative.

They'll never write the debt off. Greece can tell them to fuck off in the meantime.

 

[gosub]

They'll never write the debt off. Greece can tell them to fuck off in the meantime.

what, and return to the drachma?

 

[Humberto]

what, and return to the drachma?

I'll support them in what they want to do. Whats with all the capitalist economists with the 'lets be sensible' routine.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

what, and return to the drachma?

Paul Krugman on the issue of a Greek exit from the Euro:

If Grexit happens, then what? As so often in recent years, the best hope for an answer comes from turning to history; even though exits from a currency union are rare, we do have cases that seem to offer reasonable parallels, notably Argentina’s abandonment of the convertibility law — basically a supposedly permanent one-peso-one-dollar rule — at the beginning of 2002. [...]

As you can see from the chart, Argentina’s economy was in free fall over the course of 2001 — before the dollar peg was abandoned — thanks in large part to banking collapse and public panic (sound familiar?). But the free fall ended quite soon after the peso was devalued. [...] On a quarterly basis, GDP was rising by mid-2002, and the economy was growing rapidly by 2003.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Also, there's this:

 

[gosub]

what, and return to the drachma?

No country that has entered the EUro, will ever convince its public to leave it. Thats the pernicious thing about it, Le Pen and Farage don't get it, I didn't , do now. 30 years of cheap credit and the west has changed, rest of Europe may not share UK 'dream' of being home owners, but same as us, make their lives more comfortable with things bought on the never never, be it a new flat screen telly, furniture, cars, a yacht even, depending on their means. The vast majority of which will be bought in home currency at the the time -the EUro. In todays globalizatied capital, credit ratings stored in multiple bomb proof warehouses, those personal debts won't disappear. Even if you were prudent and had lower than the Greek average 11,482 Euro debt (a third of UK figure) chances are you work for a business that borrowed in EUros, same applies there.
Any populist that tells you, what we need is our own currency (still got ours in the UK thank fuck), it'll devalue but then we'll be OK is saying to you "things will get a bit ropey though the country will get through it but that car you're still paying for, its going to to cost you five times as much a month (or whatever) even if you sell it. Its a no brainer.

Get through this,and attitudes within EUrope will change with relation to the EUro, as the nature of the ratchet sinks in.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Well I suppose you can continue to ignore history if you choose.

 

[ska invita]

The way I understand it this Greek proposal is on the table but its cost has yet to be agreed - for it to be ratified don't the Troika have to come up with a figure of debt they would cancel? All I can say is that figure better be a big one...

The issue of referendums interests me - once you set a precedent of asking for a public vote on such issues, logic dictates there should be one on other equally momentous decisions. This proposal (once the Troikas write-down is factored in) should, in theory, also come back to the people for a vote - as should've a move to leave the Eurozone.

I've been reading some Murray Bookchin recently and although I don't agree with it all, greater public democratic power has to be the direction politics moves in...and so this last referendum felt like an empowering moment, as people were seemingly given the agency to have some control over national economic policy. If the Troika give nothing in return to this latest proposal and Greek politicians ratify it anyhow, that will really be a disappointment in terms of the narrative of public power. If the Troika give nothing, Syriza might still reject it - god knows they have a mandate to do that!

////
For whatever reasons, and maybe wrongly, I still have sympathy for Syriza, and thoughts like "this buys them time till Podemos get elected" are popping back up in my head. Other excuses include: "they didnt see the move of forced banking closures coming and became outmaneuvered", and "for a left government to succeed it has to carry the hearts and minds of the majority of society and win them all to its cause" and "how can we judge a left party in power when it has inherited a car crash" etc etc.

It looks shit right now, and maybe by next Monday it will look a little better - things change quickly - so im going to sit tight till then.

 

[butchersapron]

First para, no they don't. As for bookchin, he most definitely did not mean top down referenda set in motion by the state when he talked of democratic expansion. He meant small scale localised democracy AGAINST this stuff, and he meant establishing parallel structures really.

 

[Idris2002]

The way I understand it this Greek proposal is on the table but its cost has yet to be agreed - for it to be ratified don't the Troika have to come up with a figure of debt they would cancel? All I can say is that figure better be a big one...

The issue of referendums interests me - once you set a precedent of asking for a public vote on such issues, logic dictates there should be one on other equally momentous decisions. This proposal (once the Troikas write-down is factored in) should, in theory, also come back to the people for a vote - as should've a move to leave the Eurozone.

I've been reading some Murray Bookchin recently and although I don't agree with it all, greater public democratic power has to be the direction politics moves in...and so this last referendum felt like an empowering moment, as people were seemingly given the agency to have some control over national economic policy. If the Troika give nothing in return to this latest proposal and Greek politicians ratify it anyhow, that will really be a disappointment in terms of the narrative of public power. If the Troika give nothing, Syriza might still reject it - god knows they have a mandate to do that!

////
For whatever reasons, and maybe wrongly, I still have sympathy for Syriza, and thoughts like "this buys them time till Podemos get elected" are popping back up in my head. Other excuses include: "they didnt see the move of forced banking closures coming and became outmaneuvered", and "for a left government to succeed it has to carry the hearts and minds of the majority of society and win them all to its cause" and "how can we judge a left party in power when it has inherited a car crash" etc etc.

It looks shit right now, and maybe by next Monday it will look a little better - things change quickly - so im going to sit tight till then.

Even if the austerians really have won, it will make no difference. Their precious neoliberal utopia will continue to stagger through its own Brezhnev era, even if Tsipras really is the Dubcek of our time.

 

[brogdale]

The way I understand it this Greek proposal is on the table but its cost has yet to be agreed - for it to be ratified don't the Troika have to come up with a figure of debt they would cancel? All I can say is that figure better be a big one...

The issue of referendums interests me - once you set a precedent of asking for a public vote on such issues, logic dictates there should be one on other equally momentous decisions. This proposal (once the Troikas write-down is factored in) should, in theory, also come back to the people for a vote - as should've a move to leave the Eurozone.

I've been reading some Murray Bookchin recently and although I don't agree with it all, greater public democratic power has to be the direction politics moves in...and so this last referendum felt like an empowering moment, as people were seemingly given the agency to have some control over national economic policy. If the Troika give nothing in return to this latest proposal and Greek politicians ratify it anyhow, that will really be a disappointment in terms of the narrative of public power. If the Troika give nothing, Syriza might still reject it - god knows they have a mandate to do that!

////
For whatever reasons, and maybe wrongly, I still have sympathy for Syriza, and thoughts like "this buys them time till Podemos get elected" are popping back up in my head. Other excuses include: "they didnt see the move of forced banking closures coming and became outmaneuvered", and "for a left government to succeed it has to carry the hearts and minds of the majority of society and win them all to its cause" and "how can we judge a left party in power when it has inherited a car crash" etc etc.

It looks shit right now, and maybe by next Monday it will look a little better - things change quickly - so im going to sit tight till then.

Yes, but the institutions of financial capital have just demonstrated that 'public democratic power' will not arise from ignored referendums that produce the wrong result or selecting politicians compelled to act in a market compliant manner.

 

[ska invita]

First para, no they don't.

I've read differently. The Troika can do what they want of course, but lets wait and see if they meet half way before this passes - if it does pass.

As for bookchin, he most definitely did not mean top down referenda set in motion by the state when he talked of democratic expansion. He meant small scale localised democracy AGAINST this stuff, and he meant establishing parallel structures really.

I know that - but the issue of public power is on my mind and that was the lense i was experiencing the referendum through - the transition to meaningful public power comes in fits and starts and I'd expect those greeks who voted (particularly who voted No) would've had the taste of it in their mouths....

Even if the austerians really have won, it will make no difference. Their precious neoliberal utopia will continue to stagger through its own Brezhnev era, even if Tsipras really is the Dubcek of our time.

add that to my list of excuses

Yes, but the institutions of financial capital have just demonstrated that 'public democratic power' will not arise from ignored referendums that produce the wrong result or selecting politicians compelled to act in a market compliant manner.

agree - if it passes with no climbdown by the Troika it will be a big demonstrative punch in the gut against public power. Maybe the fight goes on another day? Oof.

 

[Lurdan]

English translation of Greek proposals

 

[Diamond]

People need to stop comparing Greece to Argentina.

First, Argentina is an entirely different economy with enormous natural resources and the whole of the Pampas agricultural area to draw upon. As far as I remember in the early part of the 20th century, it was something like the fourth or fifth largest economy in the world.

Second, the Argentinian government lies about their current statistics.

 

[butchersapron]

I've read differently. The Troika can do what they want of course, but lets wait and see if they meet half way before this passes - if it does pass.


I know that - but the issue of public power is on my mind and that was the lense i was experiencing the referendum through - the transition to meaningful public power comes in fits and starts and I'd expect those greeks who voted (particularly who voted No) would've had the taste of it in their mouths.....

The proposals have to be passed/ratified by the greek parliament before any debt relief is proposed. There's no figure big or small before that ratification, a ratification which only empowers Syrian negotiators to negotiate on that basis. And only MPs get to decide that, everyone else is locked out.

Again, why bring in bookchin if he would recognise this sham democracy and exercise of public power (which has, in reality, only demonstrated how little power there is on this state territory) for what it is? He actually argued for 6 decades that democracy or public power or whatever you want to call it was having bad things done to it under cover of such top down state led exercises in democracy.

 

[Idris2002]

People need to stop comparing Greece to Argentina.

First, Argentina is an entirely different economy with enormous natural resources and the whole of the Pampas agricultural area to draw upon. As far as I remember in the early part of the 20th century, it was something like the fourth or fifth largest economy in the world.

Second, the Argentinian government lies about their current statistics.

The fourth or fifth biggest economy thing dates from 1945, when most of the world's biggest economies were otherwise engaged.

 

[gosub]

People need to stop comparing Greece to Argentina.

First, Argentina is an entirely different economy with enormous natural resources and the whole of the Pampas agricultural area to draw upon. As far as I remember in the early part of the 20th century, it was something like the fourth or fifth largest economy in the world.

Second, the Argentinian government lies about their current statistics.

And the personal debts and liabilities of Argentinians were, and still are in Pesos

 

[Coolfonz]

I don't get this pessimism exactly.

Either Syriza cut a deal or it exited the Euro. There was going to be pain either way.

The party has been in power less than six months and it has to unwind decades of post-dictatorship economic theft, while having a bazooka pointed at its head by the EU/ECB/creditor banks and significant attempts to force it from power.

So, does one preserve your own ideological purity - exit power and give way to a technocrat govt/Pasok-ND-etc coalition - or does one retain power to (hopefully) fight another day?

Please note (unlike so many commentators) some of the items being put forward include hitting the tax-evading shipping companies, ending the amazingly bent tax breaks on offer to the richest regions (inc some islands) and cutting military spending. Military spending is nuts in Greece.

And if Syriza had taken this deal/similar deal pre-referendum it would now be preparing new elections/replaced by technocrats etc. There are lots of contradictions in what has been going on, but the presentation that Syriza have `folded` is way off the mark, but pretty normal for neo-liberal journalists who accept all this.

What about this scenario: Greece makes a deal, banks re-open (they have to), trade resumes, measures are taken, Greece stabilises and in ~five years Syriza is re-elected in Greece. How many other left governments have there been in the EU?

 

[phildwyer]

The fourth or fifth biggest economy thing dates from 1945, when most of the world's biggest economies were otherwise engaged.

Bollocks. In the last quarter of the nineteenth century and untıl the first world war Argentina was among the top ten richest countries in the world. The decline set in with the depression of the 1930s.

 

[Idris2002]

Bollocks. In the last quarter of the nineteenth century and untıl the first world war Argentina was among the top ten richest countries in the world. The decline set in with the depression of the 1930s.

I think you'll find it's heuvos in the Hispanophone world.

 

[belboid]

Bollocks. In the last quarter of the nineteenth century and untıl the first world war Argentina was among the top ten richest countries in the world. The decline set in with the depression of the 1930s.

Well,almost. It was the worlds tenth richest country per capita from1913 till the early thirties.

 

[treelover]

Apparently the defence budget is going to be decimated, Golden Dawn will be happy, lots of newly unemployed and angry ex forces milling around to recruit.

 

[gosub]

Apparently the defence budget is going to be decimated, Golden Dawn will be happy, lots of newly unemployed and angry ex forces milling around to recruit.

If, as you say, it's only down a tenth, won't be that bad

 

[agricola]

What about this scenario: Greece makes a deal, banks re-open (they have to), trade resumes, measures are taken, Greece stabilises and in ~five years Syriza is re-elected in Greece. How many other left governments have there been in the EU?

TBH its far more likely that if they agree a bad deal, within 18 months they (well not them, they will have been booted out by then) will be having to go back to the creditors with their caps in hand. If reforms, sell-offs and privatizations were a way out of this then they would have worked on one of the earlier occasions they were tried.

 

[belboid]

I don't get this pessimism exactly.

Either Syriza cut a deal or it exited the Euro. There was going to be pain either way.

The party has been in power less than six months and it has to unwind decades of post-dictatorship economic theft, while having a bazooka pointed at its head by the EU/ECB/creditor banks and significant attempts to force it from power.

So, does one preserve your own ideological purity - exit power and give way to a technocrat govt/Pasok-ND-etc coalition - or does one retain power to (hopefully) fight another day?

Please note (unlike so many commentators) some of the items being put forward include hitting the tax-evading shipping companies, ending the amazingly bent tax breaks on offer to the richest regions (inc some islands) and cutting military spending. Military spending is nuts in Greece.

And if Syriza had taken this deal/similar deal pre-referendum it would now be preparing new elections/replaced by technocrats etc. There are lots of contradictions in what has been going on, but the presentation that Syriza have `folded` is way off the mark, but pretty normal for neo-liberal journalists who accept all this.

What about this scenario: Greece makes a deal, banks re-open (they have to), trade resumes, measures are taken, Greece stabilises and in ~five years Syriza is re-elected in Greece. How many other left governments have there been in the EU?

Rubbish. They've folded. They've got some seemingly rather minor debt relief, and given up everything the troika demanded. They have failed to carry out the promises made six months ago. They have maybe got a slightly better deal than any other party would have,and have very probably got the best deal they could without leaving the Euro, but it is a very clear and definite cave in.