Greek elections

[butchersapron]

You are right. They are not in 100pc control of the situation and a lot of power in Greece is outside of their control, outside of the country.

Has anyone been in a position when you have been forced to eat shit? Do you give up or do you smile nicely and wait until you can return the favour?

Tell me, how can they do that against the 'institutions', the market and the creditors? What you suggest is Syriza becoming the arm of all these in Greece, their enforcer on the basis of some bizarre reading of how democracy works in these states. It doesn't work by a party coming to power then implementing its program as far as possible then when losing an election it hands over in gentlemanly fashion to another party who then proceeds to try and do the same. What's happening is that no parties can do a a damn thing except impose austerity or refuse to. Colin Crouch in Post-democracy put it as "You can always vote, but you have no choice". So the choice to become a bailiff for the creditors which you seem to applaud doesn't allow you to bide your time and build up your power, it cuts the only ground on which you may do so - that is refusal - from out beneath you and destroys you. You really seem to be living in the 1960s or something.

 

[gosub]

Why do you say 'Sitck with Tsipras' as opposed 'Stick with SYRIZA' or 'Stick with the NO voting working class'? Tsipras has to all intents and purposes ratted on his voters and on the referendum.

He hasn't ratted on Greece though, he has got movement, as he claimed he would, and if it gets passed they will have voted NO and stayed in the EUro. Syriza have been a refreshing change from the clubbable corruption that went before, but they have made mistakes, largely through inexperience. Ditch Tspiras and his replacement has to start the whole steep learning curve again, or let the wing that would leave the EUro gain traction and they wouldn't take the electorate with them, well maybe in October were credible debt relief not being put forward.

 

[butchersapron]

Looks like I'm masonic...
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/

*twitches trouser leg*

We're the technocrats now.

 

[Fedayn]

He hasn't ratted on Greece though, he has got movement, as he claimed he would, and if it gets passed they will have voted NO and stayed in the EUro. Syriza have been a refreshing change from the clubbable corruption that went before, but they have made mistakes, largely through inexperience. Ditch Tspiras and his replacement has to start the whole steep learning curve again, or let the wing that would leave the EUro gain traction and they wouldn't take the electorate with them, well maybe in October were credible debt relief not being put forward.

Mason makes clear it is the same deal that Juncker posed, Greece didn't vote for this, but hey who cares about them so long as ther fan boys are happy Tsipras is still in power.

 

[happie chappie]

Some people think it would need one, some don't - that's about it.

I don't know, the greek people were threatened last week and they responded by defiance - helping to produce a clear anti-austerity majority. We know prior to this most people wanted to stay in but if, as now seems clear, that they can see for themselves that their anti-austerity politics cannot happen inside but they can try outside then that firm support may be crumbling. It's hard to tell - esp as the referendum polls were so wrong. What that shows is movement. Nothing can be taken for granted when that's the order of the day.

There would have to be a referendum. There is no other way - Syriza taking Greece out of the Euro without the consent of the Greek people is untenable.

In my opinion the economic, political and social future for Greece, at least in short to medium term, boils down to whether the county is better off inside the Euro than outside.

In reality they are the only two options.

If you believe the former by implication you accept, however disgusting, the Troika package.

If you believe the latter you back the Left opposition to the deal.

I happen to believe that, all things considered, Greece will be better off inside than out.

More to the point I think the majority of Greek people, however reluctantly, think the same.

 

[butchersapron]

There would have to be a referendum. There is no other way - Syriza taking Greece out of the Euro without the consent of the people is untenable and would be a complete negation of democracy.

In my opinion the economic, political and social future for Greece, at least in short to medium term, boils down to whether the county is better off inside the Euro than outside.

In reality they are the only two options.

If you believe the former by implication you accept, however disgusting, the Troika package.

If you believe the latter you back the Left opposition to the deal.

I happen to believe that, all things considered, Greece will be better off inside than out.

More to the point I think the majority of Greek people, however reluctantly, think the same.

Most people thought the greeks would vote, however reluctantly, yes last week,

 

[Coolfonz]

Tell me, how can they do that against the 'institutions', the market and the creditors? What you suggest is Syriza becoming the arm of all these in Greece, their enforcer on the basis of some bizarre reading of how democracy works in these states. It doesn't work by a party coming to power then implementing its program as far as possible then when losing an election it hands over in gentlemanly fashion to another party who then proceeds to try and do the same. What's happening is that no parties can do a a damn thing except impose austerity or refuse to. Colin Crouch in Post-democracy put it as "You can always vote, but you have no choice". So the choice to become a bailiff for the creditors which you seem to applaud doesn't allow you to bide your time and build up your power, it cuts the only ground on which you may do so - that is refusal - from out beneath you and destroys you. You really seem to be living in the 1960s or something.

Not at all. I agree with you almost entirely. And it's not just in Greece obvs it's everywhere. Sovereignty/power has been ceded to cash, institutions.

So, leaving the Euro - in as planned a way as possible as I've sad before - could also be feasible. Greece wd be E320bn up on the deal...

But if anyone wants a `new left` anywhere, then where do you start? Although the power in the govt of Greece is highly compromised it is all the elected power there is in Greece. Any `new left` is going to have to deal with the fallout of neo-liberalism failing and it will never be instant, or easy.

What happens to Syriza if they leave office? What happens to Podemos in November? Where does the left even start to build `alternatives`?

 

[happie chappie]

Most people thought the greeks would vote, however reluctantly, yes last week,

Last week's last week. Things have changed dramatically since then.

Do you believe the Greeks will vote for a Grexit?

I don't.

 

[butchersapron]

Not at all. I agree with you almost entirely. And it's not just in Greece obvs it's everywhere. Sovereignty/power has been ceded to cash, institutions.

So, leaving the Euro - in as planned a way as possible as I've sad before - could also be feasible. Greece wd be E320bn up on the deal...

But if anyone wants a `new left` anywhere, then where do you start? Although the power in the govt of Greece is highly compromised it is all the elected power there is in Greece. Any `new left` is going to have to deal with the fallout of neo-liberalism failing and it will never be instant, or easy.

What happens to Syriza if they leave office? What happens to Podemos in November? Where does the left even start to build `alternatives`?

Who mentioned leaving office?

And you, you said they should swallow this deal - how is destroying what you call a 'new left' (which si what would happen) going to do anything other than demonstrate there can be such thing if it imposes austerity? Forget the partyist nonsense, this isn't about parties - there is no escape on that terrain and hasn't been for some time now, but this is all you can seem to see (and you equate them and elections with poswer as well!). Again, update maps please.

 

[pocketscience]

Has there been a figure put on the debt relief?
I've seen a 36bn "forward investment" mentioned but not official and Merkel has said "no classic haircut" whatever the fuck those all means. But it still hard to gauge the extent of any deal/ capitulation /etc without that number.

So, if Tsipras has caved so that Syriza can fight another day, then the last hope is that he fucks off and make way for Varoufakis, who then uses the 53bn as a parachute to get the fuck out of the Euro ASAP.

 

[butchersapron]

Last week's last week. Things have changed dramatically since then.

Do you believe the Greeks will vote for a Grexit?

I don't.

I just answered that at some length and you just replied to it. Telling me what you just told me in that post.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

In my opinion the economic, political and social future for Greece, at least in short to medium term, boils down to whether the county is better off inside the Euro than outside.

It's not as simple as that. Inside, but on what terms? Outside, but on what terms?

Inside/outside the euro is not the whole of the dynamic by any means.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Last week's last week. Things have changed dramatically since then.

Do you believe the Greeks will vote for a Grexit?

I don't.

Do you believe they will vote to accept a 3rd bailout package, with all the conditions? What about a 4th? How long do you think they will carry on with the pain?

 

[Coolfonz]

Who mentioned leaving office?

And you, you said they should swallow this deal - how is destroying what you call a 'new left' (which si what would happen) going to do anything other than demonstrate there can be such thing if it imposes austerity? Forget the partyist nonsense, this isn't about parties - there is no escape on that terrain and hasn't been for some time now, but this is all you can seem to see (and you equate them and elections with poswer as well!). Again, update maps please.

Sure thing. If Greece population voted for an exit from the Euro and Syriza was `in power` then fine.

I don't think this deal will destroy Syriza, their actions afterward in term will be what count.

And I also accept your previously stated definitions/ideas about bottom up power and action fwiw. Let's have them both.

 

[happie chappie]

Do you believe they will vote to accept a 3rd bailout package, with all the conditions? What about a 4th? How long do you think they will carry on with the pain?

Yes I do think they will vote to stay in the Single Currency which, in the end, is what it all boils down to.

So we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

[happie chappie]

It's not as simple as that. Inside, but on what terms? Outside, but on what terms?

Inside/outside the euro is not the whole of the dynamic by any means.

The terms of the Troika are reasonably clear - more of the same.

The terms of an exit are largely unknown and pretty much unknowable as no-one has ever left the Euro. But they could be catastrophic for the reasons I've stated elsewhere in this thread.

It's just my opinion that, faced with a stark choice, people tend to stick with the devil they know.

Anyway, we'll know which path the Greeks choose to take fairly soon.

 

[pocketscience]

Do you believe they will vote to accept a 3rd bailout package, with all the conditions? What about a 4th? How long do you think they will carry on with the pain?

More to the point, how long will the German taxpayers carry on with it.
A slump in German exports and even Schaueble will be singing a different tune.

 

[happie chappie]

I just answered that at some length and you just replied to it. Telling me what you just told me in that post.

Then we also will have to agree to disagree.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The terms of an exit are largely unknown and pretty much unknowable as no-one has ever left the Euro.

But they could be catastrophic

 

[SpackleFrog]

I've had a look through your posts Happie Chappie and I can't see anywhere you explained to us why the unknowable Grexit scenario would be worse than more austerity - mind repeating yourself for my benefit?

 

[pocketscience]

The Zimbabwe baseline/ benchmark iirc

An albeit extreme analogy would be Zimbabwe which is for all intents and purposes now a US Dollar economy as people have simply lost all faith in the local currency. The Zimbabwean Dollar is still in circulation, but is effectively toilet paper.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

And the personal debts and liabilities of Argentinians were, and still are in Pesos

People can go bankrupt, write off the debt and start again. The Greek government is not being allowed to. This is the problem.

 

[gosub]

Mason makes clear it is the same deal that Juncker posed, Greece didn't vote for this, but hey who cares about them so long as ther fan boys are happy Tsipras is still in power.

so from this thread....I'm a Tspiras fan boy,driven by a hatred of Tspiras

 

[happie chappie]

I've had a look through your posts Happie Chappie and I can't see anywhere you explained to us why the unknowable Grexit scenario would be worse than more austerity - mind repeating yourself for my benefit?

A return to the Drachma, which would be subject to a rapid devaluation almost as soon as it was printed, would lead to parallel currency economy where those who have access to Euros (mainly the rich) would be able to get all they want and more while those (mostly poor people) are paid in almost worthless Drachmas.

The rich would simply hoard Euros - good money would drive out bad.

People paid in Drachmas would see their purchasing power plunge before their eyes.

There would be a massive currency black market (and likely a food and medicine black market too)

The gap between rich and poor would widen even more than it is now.

Those with Euros would be able to snap-up Drachma denominated assets at knock down prices.

The cost of imports would rise rapidly as few exporters would want to be paid in Drachmas.

The list goes on.

And that's assuming the Greeks could physically print and distribute enough Drachmas in time to prevent a complete breakdown of civil society. According to Varoufakis Greece doesn't even have any printing presses! They got rid of them when they moved to the Euro.

It's my opinion, and it's only my opinion, if Greece accepts the Troika package then the Troika will, in small increments, provide additional financial assistance over time. A carrot and stick approach.

Outside the Euro the only assistance Greece will get will be humanitarian.

It's not what I want by any means. Just what I think will happen. That's all.

Anyway, I don't want to derail the thread so I'll leave it there.

 

[belboid]

Butchy - I'm not being cheeky I don't quite understand you.

I don't think it's a fairytale I think the situation in Greece is a disaster. And i don't care about consensus.

But for the first time in the EU there is a left government and in the medium and long term I would like them to stay in power, whatever it takes.

So you ARE voting for Liz Kendall, then. It would be utterly hypocritical of you to do anything else.

What was the point in setting up Syriza, and then doing pretty much exactly what Pasok would have? Seems like a complete waste of time.

 

[SpackleFrog]

A return to the Drachma, which would be subject to a rapid devaluation almost as soon as it was printed, would lead to parallel currency economy where those who have access to Euros (mainly the rich) would be able to get all they want and more while those (mostly poor people) are paid in almost worthless Drachmas.

The rich would simply hoard Euros - good money would drive out bad.

People paid in Drachmas would see their purchasing power plunge before their eyes.

There would be a massive currency black market (and likely a food and medicine black market too)

The gap between rich and poor would widen even more than it is now.

Those with Euros would be able to snap-up Drachma denominated assets at knock down prices.

The cost of imports would rise rapidly as few exporters would want to be paid in Drachmas.

The list goes on.

And that's assuming the Greeks could physically print and distribute enough Drachmas in time to prevent a complete breakdown of civil society. According to Varoufakis Greece doesn't even have any printing presses! They got rid of them when they moved to the Euro.

It's my opinion, and it's only my opinion, if Greece accepts the Troika package then the Troika will, in small increments, provide additional financial assistance over time. A carrot and stick approach.

Outside the Euro the only assistance Greece will get will be humanitarian.

It's not what I want by any means. Just what I think will happen. That's all.

Anyway, I don't want to derail the thread so I'll leave it there.

I wouldn't call it a derail. But if leaving meant nationalizing the banks that would make it possible to operate an international and a national currency, something Xekinima have been discussing internally for a long time. Foreign currency reserves could be used for international trading, some new currency could be used for domestic transactions.

Why do you think the Troika would consider offering any carrot?

 

[phildwyer]

Sovereignty/power has been ceded to cash

This is the problem in a nutshell.

However it does offer some ground for hope. Unlike earlier forms of power, money does not actually exist. It has no physical being, and thus no physical power. It is nothıng more than an idea, a fiction, and as such it ought theoretically to be easier to overthrow than material forms of power.

 

[happie chappie]

In such circumstances, where relatively strong, internationally tradable currency runs in parallel with what would effectively become "funny money" no sensible person, at home or abroad, would want to go anywhere near a Drachma, unless they were absolutely desperate. And the poor would be the most desperate.

Why would the Troika want to offer a carrot? Because it's usually a better strategy that stick, stick, stick - especially when the donkey is already on its knees.

Perhaps most importantly, if the Greeks don't see at least some improvement then whoever is in government could renege on its commitments to the Troika and the whole sorry saga would just start all over again.

 

[SpackleFrog]

This is the problem in a nutshell.

However it does offer some ground for hope. Unlike earlier forms of power, money does not actually exist. It has no physical being, and thus no physical power. It is nothıng more than an idea, a fiction, and as such it ought theoretically to be easier to overthrow than material forms of power.

Oh FUCK OFF DAVID ICKE

 

[SpackleFrog]

In such circumstances, where relatively strong, internationally tradable currency runs in parallel with what would effectively become "funny money" no sensible person, at home or abroad, would want to go anywhere near a Drachma, unless they were absolutely desperate. And the poor would be the most desperate.

Why would the Troika want to offer a carrot? Because it's usually a better strategy that stick, stick, stick - especially when the donkey is already on its knees.

Perhaps most importantly, if the Greeks don't see at least some improvement then whoever is in government could renege on its commitments to the Troika and the whole sorry saga would just start all over again.

It's still a more workable strategy than austerity - I'm not convinced it would work and would require incredibly strict controls on trade and finance but at least there's a chance.

The Troika doesn't have any carrots to give. It has no other strategy or option.