Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
I'm thinking a wee bit beyond that point. . .
Greek elections
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I'm thinking a wee bit beyond that point. . .
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Any evidence of the left of syriza trying to put focus/support/rally/etc the people outside of the parties to respond to this? Any evidence of social movement doing it aside from the parties? That's where any hope lies here.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
Does this count? Taken from shitebook:
A Fresh No Tonight, But A Continuation Of Last Week's Also
“Rally for the No side this evening — various different forces calling it — in Syntagma Square, central Athens…”
I wrote those words precisely seven days ago before heading out to the mega Oxi rally. Remember that?
Heading off now to Propylaia and then to march to join others in Syntagma, outside the parliament, once again.
In advance of last week’s rally, I cautioned, “Please do not over-read the size of it and so on.”
The same again tonight. Last week the movement which delivered the referendum victory was huge indeed. It had within its driving force various poles.
They stretched from the anti-capitalist left through to the cabinet and prime minister. Whether Alexis Tsipras wanted that 61 percent result or not – and at times earlier in the week there were good grounds for thinking he did not – is secondary.
From Wednesday to Friday he helped funnel the No tide, which after the rally and his speech last week flooded into the cafes and living rooms of even the most remote hamlet in Greece.
Now that movement is divided. It is not divided among the base of its radical activists. They remain overwhelmingly for a radical break with austerity and against the French “petit austerity” which Athens has signed up to in the hope that it will fill the maw of Merkel and the bankers.
There are debates on tactics on the radical left. But that is not the big divide. Only the childish or simple-minded – and reckless – would see in those honest debates a longed for further bloody schism on the left.
It is a division between those who favour capitulation and those who are prepared to fight. We don’t yet know the balance between the two.
The very fact that Tsipras and the cabinet have divided the movement means naturally that tonight will not be as last week.
Its tone will be different, I anticipate. Harder and angrier. But when we all shared the stories and commentary on Sunday night following the victory, didn’t we all say to one another that we would have to build on the success quickly because the next round was coming – harder and more bitter?
What is the purpose of demonstrating and rallying tonight?
To rally is a military term: “to bring into order again; gather and organise or inspire anew”. That’s the aim.
And to show – to de-mon-strate – the pole of the radical left, united in purpose and action.
There we may also listen to one another and from there take the tactics and arguments we discover to be effective into the wider layers of the working class and popular Greece.
All this while the parliament deliberates. And in advance of the theatre of blood, which will be the “negotiations” in Brussels tomorrow and Sunday.
This week marks a beginning, and an end.
Last Sunday marked the beginning of new sequence of struggle. Thursday marked the end of an approach to dealing with a mortal enemy – European capitalism and its institutions – with the kind of tactical improvisation in want of a strategy, which has characterised the government. But not the radical left in and outside of Syriza.
They take strategic questions facing our movement seriously. So seriously that we constantly check ourselves reality and in permanent debate between different perspectives.
Different, but united in the battle.
So – between things ended and things begun.
Walt Whitman - and the title of the opening chapter of my book, which I’ve just finished revising.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I'm being a bit slow on the uptake here...I think.
Are you sort of suggesting that the euro-bankers have already decided Greece is out? And that Tsipras (now) knows this and is actually cementing the "we was pushed" meme?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
The answer will be material i suppose.
happie chappie
Well-Known Member
Depends how far the Greek economy goes down the pan if it exits. I think it will be fast and potentially bloody.
If there is an exit - particularly without the express consent of the Greek people - and things get really bad, then Syriza will get most if not all the blame. Then you would have the rise and rise of Golden Dawn as a distinct possibility.
The only way out would be to hold a referendum and put it in the hands of the Greek people.
If they vote to leave then they can't reasonably blame Syriza.
If they vote to accept the Troika package, as I think they will, that too would be their choice.
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Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
I'm thinking that Tsipras et al know that the logic of the end game is exit. . . but that may be just me being overoptimistic. If they do know it (and regardless of whether the oligarchs know it or not, if that is the logic at work, they'll know it soon enough) then it would make sense to position oneself in a place where you can say "we was pushed".
But this is all above my pay grade.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yep, but makes (party) political sense.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
i suppose thats a question in two parts - firstly a political question of whether Greek voters will believe anything that comes out of Syrizas' mouth (grass is green, sky is blue stuff), and then the Grexit question on a technical basis.
i think Schauble has mooted a planned, mutually agreed Grexit as being the best option for all concerned - it wouldn't be too difficult to achieve, you could buy a certain period of commodities in advance to get you through the inevitable depreciation and uncertainty, and have 'solidarity' buys of New Drachma by the the EZ/EU countries. it would need a very significant debt write-off in order to be sustainable, which is why eyebrows might be raised upon Schauble raising it as an option...
MochaSoul
It's being enslaved of your own free will
I'm finding hard to be this optimistic. Tsipras wouldn't have needed to take PASOK, POTAMI, etc to do it, would he? I ask because GREXIT being the end game, he may have just managed to make sure Syriza will be excluded from the after-GREXIT.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
He's probably really beating up toughs who were harassing waitresses in a bar.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
Schauble's a fucking cunt, from everything I've seen. Maybe SYRIZA are in way over their heads (that's probably more likely than my more optimistic reading above), but really, that fucking guy. . .
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
the feeling i get from the 'out' comments he's been making is that he takes the view that the EZ is better off without Greece, and Greece is better off without the EZ and all its restrictions, and that what gets Greece out of the EZ is good and that which keeps them in is bad. so by making staying within the EZ as unpleasant as possible he's tipping Greece to leave, and (in the medium to long term) doing both them and everyone else a favour.
probably a reaction to the endless, and just making everything worse for all concerned, kicking the Greek/Debt can down the road because of its political difficulty. could be wrong of course...
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
I really don't think the German elite are that smart - or even that Machiavellian. The German efficiency stereotype has some basis in fact, but from what I've seen (personal anecdote time) it seems to cover an emotional side that's quite Irish in some ways. I could see Henry Kissinger behaving in the way you outline, but Schauble. . .
If Greece is going to leave the euro it either has already prepared for this - this doesn't seem to be the case, no printing presses etc - or needs time to do so without a banking collpase. Either way it will need to be presented as Greece being forced out (which given the way the institutions/troika etc have behaved shdnt be too hard)
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Lets not forget how fond of bribery the top of their politics and business used to be, either
This would be the smart thing to do, but if that is what is his intention then he is doing it awfully.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
We call it "consultancy fees" in Ireland.
Anyway, on the Cedar Lounge blog someone was saying that the Left Platform in SYRIZA had caved and agreed to the proposals - but according to this at least two members are floating a Grexit plan:
http://greece.greekreporter.com/201...rexit-tsipras-urges-mps-to-support-proposals/
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
This is just too weird, something else must be going on that we don't know about yet.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Great piece, everyone should read it I agree. Really illuminating.
Have you had a look at the sources?
This is new to me entirely I think, well worth a look
The Citigroup Plutonomy Memos: Two bombshell documents that Citigroup's lawyers try to suppress, describing in detail the rule of the first 1%
Germany wont spare Greek pain - it has an interest in breaking us
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/10/germany-greek-pain-debt-relief-grexit
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/10/germany-greek-pain-debt-relief-grexit
MochaSoul
It's being enslaved of your own free will
It's a poor consolation that "All Europe has been watching". Some will be thinking about their skins and others will be trembling about what could happen to them in the future. Germany, we all also know, will be able to dodge anything that comes their way. What is really disappointing in that piece is that Varoufakis has had plenty of opportunity to change his thinking about the Euro in the 5 months after that first week and it's not like there weren't other people in the party urging him to at least plan an exit, for the sake of the humanitarian reasons he expounded.
We, the people, it seems, end up always caught caught between a ruthless right or an amateur left.
Fuckers!
gosub
~#
As it is, Hollande played a blinder, far more the good European, than the Commission et al. And a load of people across the continent, further removed from the problem than Greece, that favoured Grexit, must ask themselves "what am i missing?, how can they decide this is the better alternative?"
Merkel's not done yet, though. I doubt it would be Germany that roadblocks directly, but she must be hoping someone else will rid her of this turbulent priest...If it goes through, next stop Federalism.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
From Michael Roberts on FB:
So the Greek government capitulated and submitted a request for more bailout funds from the Troika in return for imposing fiscal and other austerity measures that are even harsher than the Troika were demanding only last week and which were rejected overwhelmingly by the Greek people in the referendum last Sunday.
So the impossible triangle for Syriza proved impossible.This was reversing austerity; staying in the euro and remaining in government. The first has gone in order to keep the second. As the Greek parliament meets, it seems that the third corner of the triangle has also been preserved. The Left Platform, supposedly opposed to austerity even if it meant Grexit, has also capitulated (except for maybe a few MPs). They are supporting the austerity measures to keep Syriza united and in office.
Apparently, the argument is that the Greek people are suffering, the banks are closed and they fear the alternative of Grexit. So we must accede to the majority for now and leave the fight for another day. This is a strange argument given that Greeks did not succumb to 'fear' in the referendum when the banking system had already shut down. It seems that the Left Platform too is not prepared to follow the lead of the people in opposing the Troika's demands.
What justification can PM Tsipras offer to explain his apparent complete about turn from last Sunday? The first is that the referendum was a vote against austerity not Grexit which the Greek people do not want. So he had to choose, as I said on 8 July, and he chose austerity over Grexit.
Also, it's true that the austerity conditions for the new 'bailout' will be harsher than Tsipras could have got five months ago when the second bailout extension talks began. But,Tsipras might say, here is the difference.
If Tsipras had agreed to those conditions then, Greece would have got only €7bn in funds that would have been used simply to pay off the IMF and the ECB and then talks would have to start on a new package as they have now. At leas, the new package will provide funds to meet creditors for the next three years and also the promise of some 'debt relief' to reduce the burden of debt servicing.
And just maybe, if the Eurozone economy starts to recover over the next year, so will Greek capitalism and this will allow the government some 'fiscal space' to spend some money (see this argument from new finance minister Tsakalotos in my post of 21 January -
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/…/syriza-the-econom…/). So Greeks must accept yet more pain for a while and then things will get better.
This is, of course, the cry of all previous Greek governments when agreeing to previous Troika measures. Will it work this time? Well, once I have the full details of the bailout funding and conditions (assuming this is agreed by the Eurogroup tomorrow and it is confirmed that there will be a third package), then I shall consider this question in a post on my blog.
So the Greek government capitulated and submitted a request for more bailout funds from the Troika in return for imposing fiscal and other austerity measures that are even harsher than the Troika were demanding only last week and which were rejected overwhelmingly by the Greek people in the referendum last Sunday.
So the impossible triangle for Syriza proved impossible.This was reversing austerity; staying in the euro and remaining in government. The first has gone in order to keep the second. As the Greek parliament meets, it seems that the third corner of the triangle has also been preserved. The Left Platform, supposedly opposed to austerity even if it meant Grexit, has also capitulated (except for maybe a few MPs). They are supporting the austerity measures to keep Syriza united and in office.
Apparently, the argument is that the Greek people are suffering, the banks are closed and they fear the alternative of Grexit. So we must accede to the majority for now and leave the fight for another day. This is a strange argument given that Greeks did not succumb to 'fear' in the referendum when the banking system had already shut down. It seems that the Left Platform too is not prepared to follow the lead of the people in opposing the Troika's demands.
What justification can PM Tsipras offer to explain his apparent complete about turn from last Sunday? The first is that the referendum was a vote against austerity not Grexit which the Greek people do not want. So he had to choose, as I said on 8 July, and he chose austerity over Grexit.
Also, it's true that the austerity conditions for the new 'bailout' will be harsher than Tsipras could have got five months ago when the second bailout extension talks began. But,Tsipras might say, here is the difference.
If Tsipras had agreed to those conditions then, Greece would have got only €7bn in funds that would have been used simply to pay off the IMF and the ECB and then talks would have to start on a new package as they have now. At leas, the new package will provide funds to meet creditors for the next three years and also the promise of some 'debt relief' to reduce the burden of debt servicing.
And just maybe, if the Eurozone economy starts to recover over the next year, so will Greek capitalism and this will allow the government some 'fiscal space' to spend some money (see this argument from new finance minister Tsakalotos in my post of 21 January -
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/…/syriza-the-econom…/). So Greeks must accept yet more pain for a while and then things will get better.
This is, of course, the cry of all previous Greek governments when agreeing to previous Troika measures. Will it work this time? Well, once I have the full details of the bailout funding and conditions (assuming this is agreed by the Eurogroup tomorrow and it is confirmed that there will be a third package), then I shall consider this question in a post on my blog.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
His answer is no btw:
Whether there is now a deal with the Troika or alternatively, Grexit, the Greek economy needs to grow. Onlty this can make any public or private debt burden disappear. Take the US. The US public sector debt is huge at nearly 100% of GDP. But the US can service that debt easily because it has nominal GDP growth of just 4% a year. And the interest costs on its debt are very low at just 3% a year. As growth is higher than the interest cost on the debt, the US government can run a deficit of taxes versus spending (before interest) of 1% of GDP a year, and its debt ratio will still stay stable (but not fall).
Greece, on the other hand, in 2011, had interest costs of over 4% on its debt and nominal GDP of -5% a year, so it needed a government surplus of 9% of GDP just to keep the debt from rising. The government was applying austerity but still a deficit. Even the small debt restructuring of 2012 in the second bailout program did not stop the rise in the debt ratio. It is still rising.
In the 2012 bailout package, the Euro group agreed to put off repayment of its loans until 2022 and reduce the interest payments on them to just 2%. So, to stabilise the debt, the Greek economy now needs to grow by only 2% a year in nominal terms and balance its budget. But it cannot even do that yet. And even if it could, that would mean the debt ratio would just remain at 180% of a still contracting Greek GDP. So everything depends on restoring growth, much faster growth. That means more investment, new jobs, rising incomes and tax revenues and the ability to pay debt.
