Global financial system implosion begins
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Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
I think we've only just started with our sub-prime mortgage crisis and extent of which won't become apparent until more become unemployed
gorski
customised free radical
Indeed, hence the smiley...
Here's another: http://www.marketwatch.com/video/as...t-tissue/46C4AF8C-4C1D-425E-9570-ADE365D5132C
Shadow Government Statistics
http://www.shadowstats.com/
Here's another: http://www.marketwatch.com/video/as...t-tissue/46C4AF8C-4C1D-425E-9570-ADE365D5132C
Shadow Government Statistics
http://www.shadowstats.com/
elbows
Well-Known Member
Aha, the search for a new god, the god of growth is not looking well, maybe his cousin the god of green growth can save us. Peak oil by any other name I suppose.
kyser_soze
Hawking's Angry Eyebrow
I'm impressed by the recommendation to buy vintage Scotch
At the end of the day he's just another economist peddling his services tho.
elbows
Well-Known Member
As usual I can't help but agree with him. Especially when he's talking about stuff like the furore over bankers' bonuses being just another red herring to distract people from the real problem, namely the black hole into which our whole country is currently being shovelled; not by bankers but by the government. We're buying deckchairs on the Titanic and calling it an investment ffs, and at the risk of mixing metaphors it's not strategic German towel placement we should be worried about
I dont know what else the government can be expected to do though, the slide does seem rather inevitable, yet they cant do nothing, and they dont have many other choices?
Cynicus has some good points as usual, but I find the emotive comparison to Zimbabwe to be a tad unpalatable. Things are very bad, but why jump ahead to a stage we are not yet at? I'll save the Zimbabwe comparisons until we have hyperinflation.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Maybe, I think its very hard to tell if there was that method to their madness. Im certainly a very heavy subscriber to the idea that peak oil, or even just widespread acknowledgement of peak oil, would cause financial doom. Im just not sure that all the bubbles, looting and subsequent bursts we've seen this century are part of a coordinated plan to run off with the wealth whilst they still can. In my mind, the final oil profit party was a multidecade thing and Im not sure how aware of the reality many of the participants were. Many were just along for the ride and as many didnt get out in time, Im not sure they realised it was a last dash for megaprofit.
bendeus
Bellend Tagline Generator
Would I be correct in thinking that the most accurate early indication of inflation, be it hyperinflation or no, would be wage inflationary pressures in the public and private sectors, as Cynicus suggests? If so, how rapid would the lag be between wage inflation and actual price inflation?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont know. Complete collapse of currency value on international markets or shortages of goods seem like ways to get hyperinflation quickly, as opposed to there just being too much money in the system, which I would think would take a while longer to have an inflationary effect.
Its not like inflation in recent years has been talked about properly in the media, as it seemed like high oil & energy price was driving inflation but this was not shouted about much at the time, even though it was rather obvious.
The mainstream consensus seems to be that deflation is still the current fear, a trap they are desperate to avoid, but with some recognition that anti-deflation measures could rapidly cause hyperinflation at some point. A tricky balancing act that we are unlikely to come through unscathed.
Its not like inflation in recent years has been talked about properly in the media, as it seemed like high oil & energy price was driving inflation but this was not shouted about much at the time, even though it was rather obvious.
The mainstream consensus seems to be that deflation is still the current fear, a trap they are desperate to avoid, but with some recognition that anti-deflation measures could rapidly cause hyperinflation at some point. A tricky balancing act that we are unlikely to come through unscathed.
Barking_Mad
Non sibi sed omnibus
Im sure the mainstream media will be telling us what to think at each stage as we sink further into the mire.
Wolveryeti
Detty Pig
I see that Cynicus is now describing UK as the new Zimbabwe:
Its Official - The UK Government is Now Bankrupt
Financially as well as morally it would seem...
I don't buy it.
The government isn't financing a deficit through printing money- the Bank of England is trying to hit its inflation target through purchasing treasury bills already in circulation - big difference.
Deficit financing through debasement is such a thoroughly discredited idea that the only states that attempt it are those who have exhausted all other avenues of credit. 10 year UK treasuries are currently trading at 0.6% above US treasuries. If there was any concern about the health of the UK finances, or that the government was debasing the currency this figure would have skyrocketed.
Barking_Mad
Non sibi sed omnibus
Considering the latest banking bill meant that that BoE doesn't have to disclose if it is printing money, that's a brave ststement to make.
Wolveryeti
Detty Pig
It's not the government that's doing it. It's the Bank of England, which is independent, and also committed to hitting the 2% inflation target no matter what side it is on.
I suppose it is kind of doing the same thing as printing money (although the increase is expressed electronically, not in cash), but the the risk posed is outweighed by the risk from deflation, (because it is comparatively easy to restrain inflation through fiscal or monetary measures).
I suppose it is kind of doing the same thing as printing money (although the increase is expressed electronically, not in cash), but the the risk posed is outweighed by the risk from deflation, (because it is comparatively easy to restrain inflation through fiscal or monetary measures).
Wolveryeti
Detty Pig
Clearly it's not an attempt to pull the wool over peoples' eyes, because Mervyn King pretty much all out admitted that quantatitive easing was on the table in his 'unconventional measures' speech.
What I do think it is, is an attempt to stop the press jumping on the announcement when it finally starts and hyping the situation into something it isn't - just like how Northern Rock got sent to the wall when the market misinterpreted what their approach to the BOE actually meant.
Some of the money will filter into the UK economy, most will go to pay debt owed to East Asia. But that's not the point. Borrowing to pay debt will devalue the currency.
Famous. Last. Words.
Watch this space.
Heh!
Sit tight.
Woof
Heh!
Heh!
"Cash", is not money. "Debt" is money.
And there's far too much debt around and no forseeable way to repay it.
Deflation is the wave drawing out from the shore before the tsunami rolls in to subsume the coastlines.
Cynicus is correct. The only question is how quickly we respond. Unfortunately, I don't see politicians taking any meaningful lead.
Take measures, peeps.
Woof
elbows
Well-Known Member
Me no guru but I'l take a stab at that one.
Yes, many will get hammered, as will oil companies. And its even bigger than oil, there was a very big commodities boom that the likes of Russia benefitted from in a big way, it restored their might and thats all been coming undone in recent months.
Large oil exporters did build up a lot of wealth during the years of big oil price rises, but it probably wont take very long to get through that. Its all over the news in various different forms, such as little stories about the likes of Venezuela having to cutback on government spending as expected revenue assumptions based on oil at > $100 no longer apply.
By and large the media, which moaned about the oil price going up, is also moaning about it going down. Much like the flip from fears of inflation to fears of deflation, it could flip again, and both sides of the coin bring their own problems.
Barking_Mad
Non sibi sed omnibus
As if by magic...........
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20090218/tuk-bank-plans-to-print-more-money-6323e80.html
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20090218/tuk-bank-plans-to-print-more-money-6323e80.html
So potentially the UK is looking at bad inflation as the money injected into the economy dillutes the worth of the existing sterling in circulation?
Which I presume means importing stuff will become more expensive and savings will become worth less as the currency is devalued and interest rates are held low?
Which I presume means importing stuff will become more expensive and savings will become worth less as the currency is devalued and interest rates are held low?
Where can I find accurate figures that show the balance of trade and payments between the UK and East Asia? I though most of our business was conducted with Europe? Are Japan and China large holders of UK government debt?
Wolveryeti
Detty Pig
We certainly won't repay it with a negative attitude like that. Shit, why not just give up and throw ourselves off Beachy Head while we're at it?
What I think you fail to appreciate is that with deflation the real value of debt becomes steadily larger - a millstone round the necks of businesses and consumers which chokes off the investment and consumption that we desperately need to get us out of this mess.
We'll cross the inflation bridge when we come to it.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
See this guy's comments re. prudence:fuckers. I was all careful and prudent and saved my money and now it's going to devalue
Comment #15 resonates with what I was saying earlier:Chris Martenson said:
Sensible idea!Crispy said:
Although its getting more and more expensive as the £ falls. Many folk who moved or retired to "cheap" countries are now struggling.
ETA:
At least they're struggling somewhere warm...
fuckers. I was all careful and prudent and saved my money and now it's going to devalue
spending it on flights to somewhere I can live comfortably for not much money for as many months as possible seems like a sensible way to spend it now.
Money always devalues. Its called inflation. It is why we put money into banks (and other financial investments) to receive interest to offset. The main worry is deflation, and this would mean hopefully your money would buy more as prices decrease.
The most ideal strategy is put money into longer-term, covered investments. Drinking mojitos in Jakarta is not one of these.
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
Fuck me it's like an avalanche of bad economic news... every day...
Bank bail-out 'could send national debt soaring by £1.5trillion'
Bank bail-out 'could send national debt soaring by £1.5trillion'
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