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Global financial system implosion begins

Yet the British government bailed out the banks during the financial crisis in 2008, (RBS still state owned 16 years later) and paid the wages of furloughed workers during the lockdowns.

The state makes the markets or it wouldn't be the lender of last resort.
Only insofar as the markets are unable to leverage crisis against concessions. In 2008 they were cap in hand and had no leverage (edit: though actually given the outcome they clearly still did - they had the Prime Minister chasing around to pull together a plan to save them and basically no-one went to jail). In 2024 they have all the leverage in the world, as we saw with Truss they can collapse a government nearly overnight.
 
How Morgan Stanley Courted Dodgy Customers to Build a Wealth-Management Empire
WSJ. Nov. 25, 2024 https://archive.is/4AyA1
Morgan Stanley discovered last year that a yearslong brokerage customer had been convicted in 2005 in a U.S. court—for lying about terrorism investigations—and had links to al Qaeda bombings of U.S. embassies.

The bank informed law enforcement and shut down the accounts. By then, at least tens of thousands of dollars had been withdrawn from ATMs in Pakistan.
It wasn’t a rare oversight.

In another case, discussed in internal Morgan Stanley documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, a self-proclaimed princess claiming to have more than $5 billion in assets was allowed to engage Morgan Stanley for weeks without the bank carrying out a basic background check or completing the appropriate due-diligence review.
She gave multiple unusual stories for the source of her wealth—among other things she claimed to be related to the last king of Romania and to be the owner of a drug company worth billions. Finally the bank’s global financial crimes unit pushed it to cut ties.

One of the financial crimes employees described the messy nature of the case in an internal company chat log: “Fantastic—it’s like the end of a tarantino flick…everyone just murdering everyone.”
 
Reuters put an interesting personal spin on Saturday's general elections in Ghana:
DABALA, Ghana, Dec 2 (Reuters) - After serving in Ghana's police force for over three decades, pensioner Emmanuel Amey-Wemegah had a clear retirement plan: invest part of his pension benefits in government bonds, complete the construction of his house, and buy a car. All was going according to plan until Jan. 6, 2023, when he received a call from his bank that Ghana was restructuring bonds he held.
"I started sweating," said Amey-Wemegah, 63, recalling the uncertainty and fear that gripped him and other bondholders.
The retired chief inspector is one of thousands of Ghanaian private, corporate and foreign investors whose investments in government securities were restructured in 2023 for Ghana to obtain a three-year, $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout to deal with its worst economic crisis in a generation.
As over 18 million Ghanaians prepare to vote in a presidential election on Dec. 7, Amey-Wemegah's plight reflects the economic anxiety gripping many in the West African country - the world's number two cocoa producer. Jobs, education, and infrastructure are also key issues.
During the current authorities' tenure, Ghana's economy buckled under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, higher global interest rates and years of excessive borrowing.
Public debt rose from 63% of GDP in 2019 to 92.7% in 2022, the cedi currency suffered rapid depreciation, while inflation peaked above 54%, hitting consumers and forcing businesses to reduce operations.
The government's mountain of domestic debt meant that there was no alternative to an IMF deal without restructuring local holdings, something experts said was unprecedented in Africa.
A domestic debt restructuring launched in December 2022 required holders to exchange old bonds for new ones with lower yields and longer maturities.
"Some of us didn't realize exactly what the consequences were," Amey-Wemegah told Reuters in his Dabala home in southeastern Ghana, where citations for his meritorious service decorate the walls.
"They stole our money. I was sad and devastated," he said, describing how the restructuring squeezed his income.

Ghana's economic crisis looms over impending elections
 
“ In Titans of Capital, Peter Phillips, a political sociologist, poses three key research questions:
To what extent do the wealthy influence—or even dominate—decision making that affects all of us in society?
Who are the most powerful people?
And how does the accumulation of capital work?

Networks of wealthy individuals have evolved since the COVID-19 pandemic,
and Titans of Capital shows how the financial investments of transnational elites threaten human rights and the future of the planet.

Private capital investments serve as the primary operating funds for international arms sales, private prisons, and other socially negative activities.
These investments fuel the continued use of carbon-based energy leading to amplified global warming and climate change.

Military spending is a critical component of continued wealth concentration and political power in the world. Spending on arms and intelligence is a required aspect of maintaining global power and control.
Dealing with Russia, China, Iran and other “rogue” states is a continuing agenda for agents of the world power elites. Propaganda machines in Western capitalist governments serve to protect elite wealth by promoting military conflicts to open new regions for economic investment.

Phillips warns that while continued concentration of global capital increases the profits enjoyed by the global economy’s “Titans” , also increases global inequality, starvation, and civil unrest, threatening the lives of the hundreds of millions of people living in extreme poverty.

It is imperative to ask how we can reverse the concentration of Titan wealth and revitalize grassroots democracy unbridled by extreme wealth.
Identifying 117 global Titans by name and exposing the networks and interests that unite them provides readers opposed to militarism and committed to economic equality with crucial tools to directly engage the power elite who endanger life on earth.”
This Is Revolution podcast
 
World economy faces pressures similar to 1920s, warns Christine Lagarde
ECB president highlights parallels between two eras but says modern central bankers have tools to manage structural change
FT. September 20 2024 https://archive.is/saaPI
Now being compared to the 1930s

Global Economy Braces for 1930s-Style Unilateralism
Bloomberg 04/01/25 https://archive.ph/gsPyB
Put simply, “free trade is out, protectionism is in. Worrying about the debt is out, tax cuts are in. The US security guarantee is out, do-it-yourself defense is in,” the Bloomberg Economics team, led by Tom Orlik, wrote.

Even so, Trump’s promised tariff hikes are likely to stop short of the numbers he threw out on the campaign trail, including a universal levy as high as 20% and China tariffs of 60%, Orlik said.
That’s largely the conventional wisdom that’s emerged ahead of Inauguration Day on Jan. 20. China specialists Arthur Kroeber and Thomas Gatley at Gavekal Dragonomics wrote last month that their base case involves some kind of deal between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that “freezes tariffs and export controls at some level that both sides can tolerate.”

But the danger is that either Washington or Beijing miscalculates in its response to the other side, and goes too far—leading to the kind of escalation of mercantilist measures seen in the 1930s.

Where the next financial crisis could emerge
FT. January 4 2025 https://archive.is/zzYRT
Much of this growth has taken place against the background of ultra-low interest rates since the 2007-08 financial crisis. McKinsey points out that roughly two-thirds of the total return for buyout deals entered in 2010 or later and exited in 2021 or before can be attributed to broader moves in market valuation multiples and leverage, rather than improved operating efficiency.

Today these windfall gains are no longer available. Borrowing costs have risen thanks to tighter monetary policy, and private equity managers have been having difficulty selling portfolio companies in a less buoyant market environment. Yet institutional investors have an ever-growing appetite for illiquid alternative investments. And big asset managers are seeking to attract rich retail investors into the area.
 
Here comes even more tory austerity...

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“If bond yields rise further, Reeves may be forced to make the economically damaging decision of further increasing taxes or cutting back on planned public spending to balance the books,” said Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt.
 
Here comes even more tory austerity...

View attachment 458587
Paywall busting link https://archive.ph/9c9Fn

Going back to this article from November.

Afterburners on zooming sovereign debt supply
LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Far from soothing anxieties about mounting sovereign debt, the world's biggest economies appear to be doubling down - almost goading bond investors into ratcheting up the cost of the borrowing even as central banks pare back interest rates.

If these fiscal afterburners do spur economies as intended and elevate inflation rates into the bargain, it could well crimp central banks' willingness and ability to ease any debt market indigestion by lowering official rates much further.
And if that market discomfort starts to look more like a heart attack than trapped wind, central banks may soon be forced to halt the runoff of debt from their bloated balance sheets to stabilize their sovereign patients.

While these may be considerations for next year rather than this, the scene is being set by new and old leaders alike.

and this from February

The QE theory of everything
New Statesman. Feb 2024 https://archive.ph/z7HwI
How the $30 trillion quantitative easing experiment reshaped our world – from Brexit to the dominance of Big Tech.

The Federal Reserve, and to a lesser extent the Bank of England, are doing Quantitative Tightening (the opposite of easing). The yield or interest is inverse to the price, as the BoE dumps treasuries the price drops and the yield increases.

Austerity in the current polycrisis is daft if not suicidal.


The independent central bank should be politely asked to stop tightening. (Pie in the sky - wealth tax, enforce Unexplained Wealth Orders etc etc)
 
I see National Savings (NS&i) arfe cutting their rates again.
Rachel persecuting the pensioners if you ask me - and paying City Investors MORE on Gilts!
 
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