"Fiscal waterboarding" according to Yanis Varoufakis. A statistical recovery with a human recessionWhat on earth happened to Greece?
"Fiscal waterboarding" according to Yanis Varoufakis. A statistical recovery with a human recessionWhat on earth happened to Greece?
Only insofar as the markets are unable to leverage crisis against concessions. In 2008 they were cap in hand and had no leverage (edit: though actually given the outcome they clearly still did - they had the Prime Minister chasing around to pull together a plan to save them and basically no-one went to jail). In 2024 they have all the leverage in the world, as we saw with Truss they can collapse a government nearly overnight.Yet the British government bailed out the banks during the financial crisis in 2008, (RBS still state owned 16 years later) and paid the wages of furloughed workers during the lockdowns.
The state makes the markets or it wouldn't be the lender of last resort.
Morgan Stanley discovered last year that a yearslong brokerage customer had been convicted in 2005 in a U.S. court—for lying about terrorism investigations—and had links to al Qaeda bombings of U.S. embassies.
The bank informed law enforcement and shut down the accounts. By then, at least tens of thousands of dollars had been withdrawn from ATMs in Pakistan.
It wasn’t a rare oversight.
In another case, discussed in internal Morgan Stanley documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, a self-proclaimed princess claiming to have more than $5 billion in assets was allowed to engage Morgan Stanley for weeks without the bank carrying out a basic background check or completing the appropriate due-diligence review.
She gave multiple unusual stories for the source of her wealth—among other things she claimed to be related to the last king of Romania and to be the owner of a drug company worth billions. Finally the bank’s global financial crimes unit pushed it to cut ties.
One of the financial crimes employees described the messy nature of the case in an internal company chat log: “Fantastic—it’s like the end of a tarantino flick…everyone just murdering everyone.”
Now being compared to the 1930sWorld economy faces pressures similar to 1920s, warns Christine Lagarde
ECB president highlights parallels between two eras but says modern central bankers have tools to manage structural change
FT. September 20 2024 https://archive.is/saaPI
Put simply, “free trade is out, protectionism is in. Worrying about the debt is out, tax cuts are in. The US security guarantee is out, do-it-yourself defense is in,” the Bloomberg Economics team, led by Tom Orlik, wrote.
Even so, Trump’s promised tariff hikes are likely to stop short of the numbers he threw out on the campaign trail, including a universal levy as high as 20% and China tariffs of 60%, Orlik said.
That’s largely the conventional wisdom that’s emerged ahead of Inauguration Day on Jan. 20. China specialists Arthur Kroeber and Thomas Gatley at Gavekal Dragonomics wrote last month that their base case involves some kind of deal between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that “freezes tariffs and export controls at some level that both sides can tolerate.”
But the danger is that either Washington or Beijing miscalculates in its response to the other side, and goes too far—leading to the kind of escalation of mercantilist measures seen in the 1930s.
Much of this growth has taken place against the background of ultra-low interest rates since the 2007-08 financial crisis. McKinsey points out that roughly two-thirds of the total return for buyout deals entered in 2010 or later and exited in 2021 or before can be attributed to broader moves in market valuation multiples and leverage, rather than improved operating efficiency.
Today these windfall gains are no longer available. Borrowing costs have risen thanks to tighter monetary policy, and private equity managers have been having difficulty selling portfolio companies in a less buoyant market environment. Yet institutional investors have an ever-growing appetite for illiquid alternative investments. And big asset managers are seeking to attract rich retail investors into the area.
“If bond yields rise further, Reeves may be forced to make the economically damaging decision of further increasing taxes or cutting back on planned public spending to balance the books,” said Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt.
Paywall busting link https://archive.ph/9c9Fn
LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Far from soothing anxieties about mounting sovereign debt, the world's biggest economies appear to be doubling down - almost goading bond investors into ratcheting up the cost of the borrowing even as central banks pare back interest rates.
If these fiscal afterburners do spur economies as intended and elevate inflation rates into the bargain, it could well crimp central banks' willingness and ability to ease any debt market indigestion by lowering official rates much further.
And if that market discomfort starts to look more like a heart attack than trapped wind, central banks may soon be forced to halt the runoff of debt from their bloated balance sheets to stabilize their sovereign patients.
While these may be considerations for next year rather than this, the scene is being set by new and old leaders alike.
How the $30 trillion quantitative easing experiment reshaped our world – from Brexit to the dominance of Big Tech.