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Global financial system implosion begins

Looks like Burry's latest short bet is in....he's been saying S&P500 is a pinch point (for a while) gone large (10* anything he's done in a while) against SPY & QQQ.


One thing I did read in the end credits of Big Short was that he now concentrates his investment round water...yet he went long on China during last years drought (floods are probably an even bigger bitch) so that might not be strictly true these days
 



Ain't the 5 year Fed' s been focused on (2 year). Also congrats on getting a speaker...didn't like the workaround I had my head. In other news Contry Garden came clean it defaulted on outstanding $ repayments and Xi visited Chinas cemtral bank even Mao never did that

Re Country Garden - we had this in the Thatcher era with local authorities. Started in 1983 and kept the lawyers busy until 1997. Local authorities swaps litigation - Wikipedia
Not sure what happens in China/Hong Kong - there is no law there on property rights or commercial debt is there?

That man's videos are crap. How could anybody possibly be interest in that load of waffle?
 


Less if a headache UK wise VAT on silver . However...also reckons industrial market oversupplied....bearing in mind is a high end (top end conductor...) [quite like baroque trilogy on history of all that]


The 7 super seven that's propped up US ...They are all tech sector/AI..
 
Haven't watched it (obviously :) ) but does this mean my stock of silver thruppences won't be worth anything? :(
 
Haven't watched it (obviously :) ) but does this mean my stock of silver thruppences won't be worth anything? :(
In the book of the Wizard of Oz she doesn't have Ruby slippers they are silver...And it's about coming off the gold standard...

The poorer in the states don't have the money for gold (10% of portfolio is the ideal). Bible and US Constitution reference gold and silver as actual money so some go higher...but the tide is going out ...savings burned through, credit cards maxed so as the bloke says people are liquidating their positions just to get by. Going to be a long year what with Dems having to get to to next November trying to convince America never had so good....

Point of the 10% gold/silver is to act as hedge against inflation...goes up as currency weakens...as and when they slash rates to inject emergency liquidity pressure comes off thems literally having to sell the family silver just to get by...Its also historically the point you gets the bulk of the stock market correction.
 



Could have mentioned the fuck ton of bankers getting laid off..but there are better tell tails
 
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Of course they are - they are closing their branches.
Its the cashless society - not a global meltdown.

No not a "global meltdown". Probably a recession.

I have no idea what you mean about branches, I wasn't talking about those.
 
Will be hard pressed to resolve in <= 2 quarters.

Branches are closing, to the point we now have this on UK telly


But also backroom staff for which they are saying AI can do the job...but its all overhead. A lot of underwater bonds to be held to maturity. + real estate commercial and homes aint worth what was paid for them, inflation eating through savings and loans more expensive to service.


Rarely happens over night but the trend is in
 
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If this was a shock to you...(I don't know what people don't know)..this guy does a fair job of colouring things in...




FUCK HUEL cheese and onion toasties and bacon sarnies ftw

That's not the worst that can happen - consider the case of the UK "War Loan" - sold to the plebs at Post Offices with a 5% yield - which was cut during the depression to 3.5% to save the government cash.
From Wikipedia:
Policy changed when Asquith's government fell in December 1916 and Bonar Law became Chancellor in the new coalition government. The third War Loan was launched in January 1917 at a 5% discount to face value and paying 5% interest (or 4% tax-free for 25 years), a rate Lloyd George described as "penal".[17] Holders of existing War Loans, Treasury Bills and War Expenditure Certificates could convert to the 5% issue.[15] Of the £2.08 billion raised by the 5% War Loan,[21] only £845 million was new money; the rest was conversions of £820 million of 4.5% Loan, £281 million of Exchequer Bonds and £130 million of Treasury Bills.[15] Labour politician Tom Johnston would later write of the 1917 War Loan "No foreign conqueror could have devised a more complete robbery and enslavement of the British Nation".[15]

On 30 June 1932 Neville Chamberlain announced that the Government would exercise its right to call in the 5% War Loan, offering a choice of taking cash or continuing the loan at 3.5%.[22] Although they were obliged to give 90 days' notice of such a change, a 1% tax-free cash bonus was offered to holders who acted by 31 July.[22] This conversion saved the government about £23 million net per year.[22] On 3 December 2014 the UK Government announced it would redeem the outstanding war loans on 9 March 2015.[23]
 
Ok, so the video with the shouty guy with silly hair, where the title says "Walmart Collapses", is in fact just the shouty guy waffling on, and Walmart has not collapsed.

No idea what gosub's comment is supposed to mean.
I think it means that so long as gosub consistently posts about another imminent crash that is just about to happen for enough years, eventually he’ll be right and will be able, at that point, to claim some kind of Cassandra status.

Meanwhile, we have breathless videos saying that a retailer might be CUTTING SOME PRICES in the run up to Christmas, which is obviously the proof that the crash has definitely started this time.
 
its the result of the BTFP. You remember, that emergency program they launched last year to prop up the banks, whilst you were saying nothing to see here?
Is supposed to be wound up in March, though looking more and more relied on Assets: Liquidity and Credit Facilities: Loans: Bank Term Funding Program, Net: Wednesday Level


Either way, not the sort of headache you want in an election year
Fed’s Newest Tool Has Become More Attractive on Rate-Cut Bets
December 19, 2023 https://archive.is/Ep6Ar
In September, when market participants expected the US central bank to keep rates higher for longer, users of the BTFP would have had to pay roughly 5.61% to use the BTFP. Yet as traders increase bets on more rate cuts in 2024 — about 140 basis points, according to Fed-swaps pricing — institutions are finding it cheaper to tap the nascent facility, currently at 4.96%, than turn to the discount window, which charges eligible institutions 5.5% to borrow cash.
After its introduction in March, usage of the BTFP climbed to $100 billion in June before leveling off. Since the beginning of November, however, banks have tapped the facility for $124 billion in the week through Dec. 13 up from $109 billion on Nov. 1, Fed data show. Wrightson ICAP expects balances to rise after policy makers forecasted a series of cuts next year, especially since the program is expected to expire in March, and estimate another $10 billion increase in the week through Dec. 20.
The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) became cheaper than the discount window
 
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